Houthis turn pirate

[ZiprHead]

You would probably comprehend the comment much better if you didn't deliberately cut off what the comment was responding to. You do know we see it when you do that sort of thing, right?

I do not like quoting walls of text. The previous post is easily viewable in its entirety by clicking on the link anyway, no nothing is concealed.

But why so cryptic? Whom do you consider "your" dictators?

Obviously the Shah was ours.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But he did release frozen money.

He gave back money we'd stolen decades earlier.
You might be surprised by how many people believe that was American taxpayers money, but it wasn't.
Tom

The Iranian assets remain frozen because of Hamas’s attack.

Some big chunk was released not long before the attack. Doing so obviously didn't make them feel friendly.

Um, no...

Um, yes. That $6b you're talking about isn't the only chunk.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

MSC joins Maersk (who together make up 34% of container shipping) in staying out of the Red Sea. One sixth of the world's container shipping passes through the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea.

Shipping firms to avoid Suez Canal as Red Sea attacks increase

And yet, Biden is still dithering. Yes, yes, there is a sort of international task force formed. But it merely babysits ships and shoots cheap drones with much more expensive missiles. To deter these attacks, the taskforce needs to go on the offensive and attack Houthi positions. Can it take out every single drone and launcher? No, of course not. But it can damage Houthis sufficiently that they rethink their commitment to attacking shipping for their masters in Tehran.

It would be nice if people like Yahya Sarea (why are these terrorists so often named "Yahya"?) got a hellfire missile up their ass.

Shooting at Houthi positions won't work. Antiship missiles are simply too easy to hide. If we want to actually stop it we need to hold Iran's feet to the fire. Perhaps a policy that Houthi attacks will be met with Tomahawk strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure. Hit them in the pocketbook.

 

[Derec]

Shooting at Houthi positions won't work. Antiship missiles are simply too easy to hide.

Like I said before, you do not need to destroy all missiles and drones. You just have to make it too costly for the Houthis to continue.
Shooting down one of their drones is not a big loss to them. Hitting a company of Houthi fighters would be a lot more costly.

If we want to actually stop it we need to hold Iran's feet to the fire. Perhaps a policy that Houthi attacks will be met with Tomahawk strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure. Hit them in the pocketbook.

Biden doesn't even want to hit the Houthis. Why do you think he'd be amenable to striking Iran directly?

 

[Derec]

The shipping lines have decided to go around Africa tacking on 2-3 more weeks transit time. Egypt charges 5-6 hundred k per ship to pass through the Suez. Can this destabilize Egypt’s economy, I wonder. The shipping companies will change their charges per container from 2 to 4 thousand. Predictions for 2024 Q1 profits?

Al Sisi cannot be liking this.
It will affect supply chains for the world economy too.
Oil price gains and shipping headaches after Red Sea attacks risk new wave of inflation

Biden has to be careful of how much munitions the US is expending. Ukraine, Israel, and now Yemen. It’d be a good time for China to start some shit with Taiwan.

Russia is even more tied up. Now may be the time for China to get Outer Manchuria back ...

 

[Derec]

The irony of your very simple “ stamp em out” would be amusing if it were bolstered by its basis of ignorance.

Learn some reading comprehension. I did not say to "stamp them out", at least not right now. I said put enough hurt on them so they cry uncle and give up the tactic of attacking shipping.

You are essentially advocating taking sides in a civil war in a society that neither forgets nor forgives any slight over minor commercial inconveniences . At best, your proposal provides temporary relief with low probability of success.

I am advocating striking a terror group that is actively attacking cargo shipping.
That Houthis are involved in a civil war is why attacking them directly will be successful. Gaza is not their fight. And by engaging in piracy in the Red Sea, they are actively endangering their position in the civil war against the legitimate government of Yemen.

However, I did advocate taking the side against Houthis way back in 2015. Not because of taking sides in a civil war, but because Houthis are the puppets of Tehran. Allowing Houthis to prevail in Yemen meant allowing the ayatollahs control of a chunk of Arabian Peninsula, with strategic position along the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea coast.
I was proven right. We should have stopped the Houthis before they consolidated their territorial gains.

 

[lpetrich]

When I first learned of this, I thought it very weird. Why are the Houthis doing this? It's not like they are directly threatened.

US and allies scramble to respond to Houthi attacks on key Red Sea shipping lanes | CNN Politics

Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have escalated to a level not seen in decades, leaving the United States and its allies scrambling to protect shipping in a key corridor for the global economy.

Houthi rebels have launched at least 100 attacks against 12 different commercial and merchant vessels in the Red Sea over the last month, a “very significant breadth of attacks” not seen in at least “two generations,” a senior US military official said Tuesday.

Austin announces US-led security operation focusing on Red Sea, Gulf of Aden after Houthi attacks on commercial shipping | CNN Politics

The announcement came after the USS Carney responded Monday to a distress call from a commercial vessel after it was attacked by “multiple projectiles” in the southern Red Sea, a US military official said.

The ship, the Swan Atlantic, “was attacked by a one-way attack drone and an anti-ship ballistic missile launched from a Houthi-controlled area in Yemen,” according to US Central Command.

The chemical/oil tanker, a Cayman Islands-flagged ship, called for assistance after the attack, and the USS Carney, the closest US warship, responded to assess damage, CENTCOM said Monday night. About the same time as the attack on the Swan Atlantic, a second commercial ship in the Red Sea was targeted by Houthi militants, CENTCOM said.

The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attacks on both vessels, which they claimed were linked to Israel. The Houthis also said that “no harm will be dealt” to ships heading to ports around the world, “except for Israeli ports.”

Houthi forces in Yemen have been targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea, claiming the attacks as revenge against Israel. Oil giant BP announced Monday that it would pause all shipments through the Red Sea due to the “deteriorating security situation,” marking the latest shipping firm pausing routes through the channel.

Back to my first link.

The coalition, part of Operation Prosperity Guardians, involves member ships being available near the Red Sea to respond to attacks.

The UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain have signed up so far, Austin said on Monday. The US sent invitations to 39 countries to be part of the operation, and expects more will sign up in the coming days.

Let's see what they come up with. I doubt that most of them have deep-water navies.

The Houthis, one side of Yemen’s brutal, decade-long civil war, have said their attacks are retribution for Israel’s military campaign against Gaza. Not all ships targeted by the group are believed to have direct connections to Israel, however.

I figured as much.

 

[lpetrich]

A $2M missile vs. a $2,000 drone: Pentagon worried over cost of Houthi attacks - POLITICO

Nineteen nations have signed on to the task force, including some Arab partners, but only nine want to attach their names to the effort, according to a senior administration official. The situation is complicated for Arab nations because of the perception that the task force is designed to protect Israeli-linked commercial vessels, explained one of the DOD officials.

Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea > U.S. Department of Defense > Release

Who Are the Houthis? The Militia Firing on Ships in the Red Sea - The New York Times - "Across the Middle East, people have hailed the Houthis as one of the few regional forces willing to challenge Israel with more than harsh words."

"Shooting missiles toward Israel and attacking ships sailing through the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthi militia has been gaining popularity across the Middle East and building regional clout that could help expand its power at home, analysts say."

A once-scrappy tribal group, the Houthis have taken over much of northern Yemen since they stormed Sana in 2014, gradually increasing their military capabilities and effectively winning a war against a Saudi-led coalition that spent years trying to rout them.

Now that the most intense fighting in Yemen’s civil war has largely died down, the armed group has increasingly functioned as a de facto government.

Noting
Saudi Arabia and Houthis Hold Peace Talks in Yemen: What to Know - The New York Times - "The surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose rivalry fueled the war, has raised a glimmer of hope for a breakthrough in resolving one of the world’s worst crises."

Back to my first-linked article.

With the Houthis on the verge of a peace deal with Saudi Arabia that would potentially recognize their control over northern Yemen, the war in Gaza is “a massive opportunity for them to get legitimacy in region,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemeni research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, the London-based research group. “Right now everyone who is in the region is confusing the Yemenis with the Houthis, and for the Houthis, that’s the best thing that can happen.”

...
In statements announcing their attacks, the Houthis call themselves the “Yemen armed forces” — brushing aside the presence of an internationally recognized government and other armed groups based in the country’s south. Last week, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of the Houthi movement, posted a warning on social media outlining the risks of traveling in the Red Sea, telling ships not to travel to “occupied ports in Palestine” and to be prepared to respond to orders from “the Yemeni navy.”

...
Support for the Palestinian cause and hostility toward Israel have long been pillars of the Houthi narrative; “Death to America, death to Israel” is in the group’s slogan. Part of the way they frame themselves is in opposition to American-backed Arab leaders, whom they view as “just mercenaries for the West,” Mr. Nagi explained.

Arab governments that once went to war with Israel and led an oil embargo to punish its Western backers have mostly reacted to the war in Gaza with public condemnations, aid campaigns and diplomatic efforts to push for a cease-fire, reinforcing a sense of impotence among some of their citizens who would prefer to see them cut ties with Israel or take other, more forceful actions.

Middle East Powers Skip U.S.-led Naval Effort to Deter Houthi Rebels - The New York Times

 

[lpetrich]

The Costs the Houthis Are Poised to Inflict on the Global Economy | TIME

While attacks by the Houthis on commercial shipping began on November 19, they escalated last week, with the Yemeni rebels firing anti-ship ballistic missiles at several passing ships and hitting one (the first time such a weapon has ever been used successfully). As none of the ships were bound for Israel or owned by Israeli companies, the attacks signaled the Houthis were stepping up their efforts to pressure local commerce as a way to force Israel to suspend its campaign in Gaza.

Shipping companies got the message. Five of the largest shipping firms announced they would redirect their container ships away from the Bab al Mandab strait, the strategic waterway through which ships must pass on their way to the Suez Canal and which handles over 10% of global commerce.

Why the Suez Canal is so important -- and why its standstill could be so damaging | CNN - Published 12:32 PM EDT, Fri March 26, 2021
Back then, Evergreen freighter Ever Given got stuck in the canal, at a 45d angle relative to that canal.

Shipping firms avoid Red Sea as Houthi attacks increase | Reuters
CMA CGM, EURONAV, EVERGREEN, FRONTLINE, HAPAG-LLOYD, HMM, MAERSK, MSC, OCEAN NETWORK EXPRESS, OOCL, WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN, YANG MING MARINE TRANSPORT

 

[TV and credit cards]

COSCO is not getting harassed? The Houthis are likely shooting at names on the sides of ships. This isn't good for the world economy regardless of the name on the side of the ship. Regardless, China can just sit back and watch the US deplete its inventories throwing congressionally approved overpriced missiles at a problem we can not solve militarily.

Fun fact: Hypervelocity projectiles originally developed for use with electromagnetic railguns it was found could just as easily be shot out of the standard Mk 45 deck gun found on most US Navy ships. Yeah, an $85K projectile versus a $2 million missile. Guess what happened. Defunded.

Long In Development Hypervelocity Rounds For Navy Railguns And Deck Guns Killed Off In Budget

The Navy and other services had hoped to be able to fire hypervelocity projectiles from various guns at a range of surface and aerial threats.

www.thedrive.com

Or we could just own up to our 75 year old mistake the US jammed down the UN's throat. Tell the American people Israel is of no real strategic importance to us.

 

[laughing dog]

The irony of your very simple “ stamp em out” would be amusing if it were bolstered by its basis of ignorance.

Learn some reading comprehension. I did not say to "stamp them out", at least not right now. I said put enough hurt on them so they cry uncle and give up the tactic of attacking shipping.

. You want to play to play whack a mole. It won’t work unless you stamp them out.

I am advocating striking a terror group that is actively attacking cargo shipping.
That Houthis are involved in a civil war is why attacking them directly will be successful. Gaza is not their fight. And by engaging in piracy in the Red Sea, they are actively endangering their position in the civil war against the legitimate government of Yemen.

However, I did advocate taking the side against Houthis way back in 2015. Not because of taking sides in a civil war, but because Houthis are the puppets of Tehran. Allowing Houthis to prevail in Yemen meant allowing the ayatollahs control of a chunk of Arabian Peninsula, with strategic position along the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea coast.
I was proven right. We should have stopped the Houthis before they consolidated their territorial gains.

You can spin that self-congratulatory neocon chest thumping all day long. Taking action against one side is taking sides.

US track record in the Middle East is, at best, lousy. There is no need to add to it when their are others who can take it on. Especially when there are more pressing and important issues to deal with

 

[Derec]

You want to play to play whack a mole. It won’t work unless you stamp them out.

I beg to differ.
The point is to make the tactic of attacking civilian shipping costly for the terror group. Right now, it is cheap and painless for them to engage in these attacks. It is beyond time to change that.
I think they will cease and desist quickly if their positions are hit. But if they insist to continue until they are stamped out, I find those terms acceptable as well. Would be better for the citizens of Yemen too if the Houthis were gone as a power that controls the western part of Yemen.

You can spin that self-congratulatory neocon chest thumping all day long. Taking action against one side is taking sides.

Taking the side against those attacking shipping. Not necessarily taking sides in the civil war. If two of your neighbors have been fighting for years, and one of them later also gets mad at you over something and slashes your tires, you calling the cops on one neighbor (or taking matters into your own hands) is not taking sides in the original dispute between the two neighbors.

US track record in the Middle East is, at best, lousy. There is no need to add to it when their are others who can take it on. Especially when there are more pressing and important issues to deal with

The issue of safe and efficient shipping is a pressing and important issue.
How Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea are affecting global trade
It even affects CO₂ emissions since taking the long way around wastes fuel. But the left has always been long on rhetoric and short on reasonable action when it comes to climate.

As far as US track record in the Middle East, it is mixed. We tend to do poorly with long-term occupations. But more limited actions, like the original Gulf War or the campaign against the ISIS Caliphate were very successful. The anti-Houthi campaign I envision would be very much like the campaign against ISIS that led to the Caliphate collapsing in 2019 and the group being significantly weakened.

 

[Derec]

at a problem we can not solve militarily.

Of course the problem can be solved militarily. Not by shooting cheap drones with expensive missiles, but by taking the fight to the Houthis and hitting them where they are.

Or we could just own up to our 75 year old mistake the US jammed down the UN's throat. Tell the American people Israel is of no real strategic importance to us.

That would be a colossal mistake. Political and militant Islam is the biggest existential threat to the West in the 21st century. Sacrificing Israel to appease Islamists like Houthis, Iran or 5th columnists living inside western countries would merely make Islamists stronger.

 

[Derec]

A $2M missile vs. a $2,000 drone: Pentagon worried over cost of Houthi attacks - POLITICO

This and the article about the importance of the Suez canal is why the dithering by Biden and the task force is so infuriating. There needs to be more decisive action taken against the Houthis.

Doing nothing merely emboldens the bad guys.
Iran threatens to close Mediterranean Sea citing US ‘crimes’ in Gaza
They can smell weakness and will try to capitalize on it.

 

[ZiprHead]

How much of the shipping through the Red Sea is coming to or from the US?

 

[laughing dog]

You want to play to play whack a mole. It won’t work unless you stamp them out.

I beg to differ.
The point is to make the tactic of attacking civilian shipping costly for the terror group. Right now, it is cheap and painless for them to engage in these attacks. It is beyond time to change that.
I think they will cease and desist quickly if their positions are hit. But if they insist to continue until they are stamped out, I find those terms acceptable as well. Would be better for the citizens of Yemen too if the Houthis were gone as a power that controls the western part of Yemen.

You can spin that self-congratulatory neocon chest thumping all day long. Taking action against one side is taking sides.

Taking the side against those attacking shipping. Not necessarily taking sides in the civil war. If two of your neighbors have been fighting for years, and one of them later also gets mad at you over something and slashes your tires, you calling the cops on one neighbor (or taking matters into your own hands) is not taking sides in the original dispute between the two neighbors.

US track record in the Middle East is, at best, lousy. There is no need to add to it when their are others who can take it on. Especially when there are more pressing and important issues to deal with

The issue of safe and efficient shipping is a pressing and important issue.
How Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea are affecting global trade
It even affects CO₂ emissions since taking the long way around wastes fuel. But the left has always been long on rhetoric and short on reasonable action when it comes to climate.

As far as US track record in the Middle East, it is mixed. We tend to do poorly with long-term occupations. But more limited actions, like the original Gulf War or the campaign against the ISIS Caliphate were very successful. The anti-Houthi campaign I envision would be very much like the campaign against ISIS that led to the Caliphate collapsing in 2019 and the group being significantly weakened.

I don’t see the Middle East through your rose colored glasses.

 

[bilby]

Political and militant Islam is the biggest existential threat to the West in the 21st century.

That's absurd.

The only existential threat to the West today is the Russian nuclear arsenal.

And even that's not much of a threat, as most of it probably doesn't actually work anymore.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Political and militant Islam is the biggest existential threat to the West in the 21st century.

That's absurd.

The only existential threat to the West today is the Russian nuclear arsenal.

And even that's not much of a threat, as most of it probably doesn't actually work anymore.

While he's wrong to use "existential", he's right that they are the biggest threat. Look at the fundies in Pakistan--keep trying to egg on a war with India despite the fact that that's just asking for a nuclear war that they would get the far worse of. They know the balance of power but do it anyway--Allah will ensure they prevail.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

How much of the shipping through the Red Sea is coming to or from the US?

What difference does that make???

Anything that disrupts the global economy hurts us.

And note that a substantial fraction of the world's oil passes within missile range.

Pay attention to what peace in our time actually does.

 

[lpetrich]

More than 20 countries now part of US-led Red Sea coalition, Pentagon says | Reuters
and
What is U.S.-led Red Sea coalition and which countries are backing it? | Reuters

The coalition: the US, Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, joined recently by Greece and Australia, with 8 unnamed members.

China won't be joining: Beijing shrugs at U.S. call for help protecting Red Sea shipping - POLITICO

Spain, Italy, France Decline US Command Of Red Sea Operation Prosperity Guardian

Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea > U.S. Department of Defense > Release

Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Virtual Conference on Red Sea Maritime Security > U.S. Department of Defense > Release

... the Houthis had conducted over 100 one-way uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and ballistic missile attacks, targeting 10 merchant vessels involving more than 35 different nations. They highlighted that the Houthis had taken the Merchant Vessel GALAXY LEADER and its 25-member international crew hostage on November 19; the crew remain unjustly detained in Yemen. Participants discussed how the attacks are a flagrant violation of international law, and the Houthis must cease their aggressive actions. Currently, 10-15% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, and international shipping companies are having to reroute through the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to the delivery of key goods and materials, including oil and gas.