Houthis turn pirate

[lpetrich]

Ryder Gives More Detail on How Operation Prosperity Guardian Will Work > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News - "Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced the operation during a trip to the Middle East that ended last night. The secretary met with leaders in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Israel during the trip."

The  Seychelles are some islands off the coast of East Africa, and they are about 1600 kn / 2000 mi / 3000 km from the the  Bab-el-Mandeb (Bab-al-Mandab, "Gate of Grief") strait.

Warships typically travel at 20 - 30 knots (nautical miles per hour), giving a travel time of 2 - 3 days.

Is the Seychelles a good forward base?

Checking on that multi-island nation, its capital and largest city is  Victoria, Seychelles with a population of around 25,000. It has  Seychelles International Airport with a single runway 3 km / 10k feet long. The article on Victoria has a picture of the city's seaport from the ocean, showing some ships, including a cruise ship.

So it's rather small, meaning that many task-force ships will have to take turns docking and drop anchor off the coast. But the airport should easily accommodate such military cargo planes as the C-5 Galaxy | Military.com - that one can land on a runway 6k feet / 2 km long.


No word on Kenya, at least not yet, but its seaport city Mombasa would also be a good forward base. It's much more populous but a little more distant.

 

[bilby]

The Egyptian Navy should be easily able, and economically motivated, to defeat these arseholes without the intervention of any other nations.

I mean, they're not exactly a first-rank blue water naval power; But the Red Sea is small, and the Egyptians are surely able to beat a few pirates.

 

[lpetrich]

Iran rejects US claims it is ‘deeply involved’ in Houthi attacks in Red Sea | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera - "Tehran responds to US allegations it is providing the Yemeni rebel group with weapons and tactical intelligence."

The Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen including the capital Sanaa, have launched more than 100 drone and missile attacks, targeting 10 merchant vessels in the Red Sea, according to the Pentagon. The group has described the attacks as a show of support for Palestinians facing Israeli bombardment in Gaza.

...
The White House said that visual analysis showed nearly identical features between Iran’s KAS-04 drones and the unmanned vehicles used by the Houthis, as well as consistent features between Iranian and Houthi missiles.

Tanker hit off India coast by drone from Iran, says US

The Pentagon said the Chem Pluto vessel was struck "200 nautical miles (370km) from the coast of India" at 10:00 local time (06:00 GMT).

A fire on board the ship was extinguished. There were no casualties.

Indian-flagged oil tanker hit by Houthi drone in Red Sea: US military | World News - The Indian Express

A day after an attack on a tanker off the coast of Gujarat, an Indian-flagged crude oil ship was hit by an attack drone fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the US military said on Sunday.

“M/V SAIBABA, a Gabon-owned, Indian-flagged crude oil tanker, reported that it was hit by a one-way attack drone with no injuries reported. A Norwegian-flagged, owned, and operated chemical/oil tanker also reported a near miss of a Houthi drone at the same time. The USS LABOON (DDG 58) responded to the distress calls from these attacks. These attacks represent the 14th and 15th attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi militants since October 17,” US Central Command said in a statement.

 

[lpetrich]

The west coast of India is about as far away as Mombasa, and I've discovered (3) India Silently Rushes Warships Near Houthi Territory After U.S. Forms Red Sea Force | Watch - YouTube and (3) India Deploys Warships to Red Sea Amid Houthi Threat | Vantage with Palki Sharma - YouTube -- two guided-missile destroyers stationed off of Aden in Yemen

 Egyptian Navy and  Royal Saudi Navy look rather sizable.


 Samad (UAV) like the Samad-3 (KAS-04) -- Israel identifies Iran's ‘deniable' UAV -- range of 1,700 km

Distance Between Cities Places On Map Distance Calculator - from Sanaa, Yemen to Eilat, Israel (best case): 1969 km and Tel Aviv, Israel: 2222 km. So Israel is a little out of range.

 

[TV and credit cards]

at a problem we can not solve militarily.

Of course the problem can be solved militarily. Not by shooting cheap drones with expensive missiles, but by taking the fight to the Houthis and hitting them where they are.

Where might that be? From the Time article lpetrich provided in post #109, that might be easier said than done. And for how long do we do it?
Then again, it might be easier to go after the means of production in Iran. Considering their supply to Russia, we just might be killing two birds with one stone. That is, if we wanted to go this route.

Or we could just own up to our 75 year old mistake the US jammed down the UN's throat. Tell the American people Israel is of no real strategic importance to us.

That would be a colossal mistake. Political and militant Islam is the biggest existential threat to the West in the 21st century. Sacrificing Israel to appease Islamists like Houthis, Iran or 5th columnists living inside western countries would merely make Islamists stronger.

Well maybe if we took our finger out of their asses (left them alone and learned to mind our own fucking business in these regards) this actually wouldn't make them stronger as angering them seems to make them stronger.

 

[lpetrich]

 Samad (UAV) has some specs. "The Samad is available in three models. All models have distinctive V-shaped tail fins and a pusher engine. Samad UAVs have a ventral protrusion and wing skids, which they use for taking off and landing."

The one pictured has a long thin wing, typical of subsonic airplanes, unlike the delta wing of  HESA Shahed 136

The Samad-2 has length 2.8 meters (9 ft 2 in), wingspan 4.5 meters (14 ft 9 in), and can carry either a digital camera or a warhead - 18 kg (40 lb) explosives mixed with ball bearings. The Samad-3 or KAS-04 has a fuel tank fitted on it that gives it a range stated as 1,500 km or 1,700 km. Maximum speed 200–250 km/h (120–160 mph, 110–130 kn).

I measured the distance from Yemen to Israel again, using instead of Sanaa the northernmost bit of Yemen. To Eilat is 1,590 km (940 mi, 860 kn) and to Tel Aviv 1,830 km (1,080 mi, 990 kn). So Israel is barely within range.

 

[ZiprHead]

How much of the shipping through the Red Sea is coming to or from the US?

What difference does that make???

Anything that disrupts the global economy hurts us.

And that justifies us going to war???

And note that a substantial fraction of the world's oil passes within missile range.

Pay attention to what peace in our time actually does.

You just said the above in a differant way.

 

[laughing dog]

How much of the shipping through the Red Sea is coming to or from the US?

What difference does that make???

Anything that disrupts the global economy hurts us.

Not necessarily. And certainly it is the case that not any amount of economic damage requires military intervention.

The US is now a net exporter of oil. It is not clear that a disruption in the supply of oil will necessarily cause the US net damage.

 

[lpetrich]

But many other nations depend on Middle Eastern oil, and they would be pinched by disruption of supplies. The US could make up for that by exporting oil, but that means less oil at home. The oil market is effectively one worldwide pool of oil.

 

[Rhea]

I think we’d get through it, as we have in he past.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Then again, it might be easier to go after the means of production in Iran. Considering their supply to Russia, we just might be killing two birds with one stone. That is, if we wanted to go this route.

Trying to stop the Houthis is effectively impossible. You can't defeat a force like that that has a solid external source of supply.

However, in this case we do have the option of going after that source of supply. If we establish a policy that attacks on shipping from any axis-of-resistance country will be considered to have come from Iran and our response will be to fire an equal number of weapons at military and economic targets in Iran they are going to think twice about allowing their clients to do such things.

Or we could just own up to our 75 year old mistake the US jammed down the UN's throat. Tell the American people Israel is of no real strategic importance to us.

That would be a colossal mistake. Political and militant Islam is the biggest existential threat to the West in the 21st century. Sacrificing Israel to appease Islamists like Houthis, Iran or 5th columnists living inside western countries would merely make Islamists stronger.

Well maybe if we took our finger out of their asses (left them alone and learned to mind our own fucking business in these regards) this actually wouldn't make them stronger as angering them seems to make them stronger.

And I'm sure we can have peace in our time!

(No. Like with Hitler they are expansionist. Leaving them alone just emboldens them.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

How much of the shipping through the Red Sea is coming to or from the US?

What difference does that make???

Anything that disrupts the global economy hurts us.

And that justifies us going to war???

And note that a substantial fraction of the world's oil passes within missile range.

Pay attention to what peace in our time actually does.

You just said the above in a differant way.

Do you not understand the peace in our time comment?

 

[ZiprHead]

I understand you're a complete warmonger.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I understand you're a complete warmonger.

So you don't understand the comment.

 

[ZiprHead]

I understand you're a complete warmonger.

So you don't understand the comment.

Would the comment make you less of a warmonger?

And BTW, it's "Peace for our time."

 

[lpetrich]

Shipping firm Maersk says it’s preparing for resumption of Red Sea voyages after attacks from Yemen - POLITICO
and
Analysis: Has the US-led Red Sea force calmed shippers amid Houthi attacks? | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera - "Maersk will resume shipping through the Red Sea but concerns remain. Meanwhile, France, Spain and Italy have dropped out of the force."

The Samad-2 carries only 18 kg of explosive. A more potent antiship missile, the Russian  P-800 Oniks (Yakhont) can carry 200 - 300 kg of explosive, but it only has a range of 120 km for a low-altitude trajectory and 300 km for a high-low trajectory. It uses a ramjet engine, and it travels at Mach 2 near the surface and Mach 2.6 (750 m/s) at high altitude (10 - 14 km). Its length is 8.9 m, its diameter 0.7 m, its wingspan 1.7 m, and its weight 3.1 metric tons.

For the US, Trailer Dimensions - Stream Logistics I looked at a semtruck dry-van trailer. Its internal dimensions are typically length 16 m, width 2.5 m, height 2.8 m. European ones are similar.

Thus, it's easy to hide these missiles if one can remove their wings.

 

[Derec]

Trying to stop the Houthis is effectively impossible. You can't defeat a force like that that has a solid external source of supply.

You can make it costly for them though. Right now, there is no downside for them to attack ships. If their positions are hit every time they target a ship and they face loss of men and material, then they might rethink their commitment to this tactic.

However, in this case we do have the option of going after that source of supply. If we establish a policy that attacks on shipping from any axis-of-resistance country will be considered to have come from Iran and our response will be to fire an equal number of weapons at military and economic targets in Iran they are going to think twice about allowing their clients to do such things.

Biden won't even attack Houthis. What makes you think he would be amenable to attacking Iran itself?

 

[Derec]

The US is now a net exporter of oil. It is not clear that a disruption in the supply of oil will necessarily cause the US net damage.

Sidebar: yes, US has been a (slight) net exporter of oil and refined products in recent years. That is entirely due to that bête noire of US leftists - fracking.
A disruption of oil markets would be good for oil companies but bad for consumers, including in the US. It would mean higher prices whether or not we are slight net importers or exporters.

 

[Derec]

And that justifies us going to war???

Yes. US is very much dependent on functioning world trade, and threats to it are threats to our national interest.
Not to mention that Houthis are doing this to harm one of our closest allies. So it's doubly in our interest to intervene.

 

[Derec]

Where might that be?

The green areas.
As to specific positions, US has excellent aerial and satellite surveillance capabilities.

From the Time article lpetrich provided in post #109, that might be easier said than done.

This article?

It may prove difficult to deter the Houthis through military force. Unlike Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group that faces a direct war with Israel, the Houthis are under little immediate threat, having now reached the brink of victory in their decade-long war with Saudi Arabia.

That’s what makes this a challenging situation for both the U.S. and the international community. Ensconced in mountain fortresses and flush with funds, the Houthis are heavily equipped with Iran-supplied arms, including accurate drones and anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles capable of hitting a moving ship hundreds of kilometers away. Sitting on a large stockpile, they can keep up this campaign for a long time.

Of course they can keep this up for a long time. As long as the US and the coalition keep shooting at the arrows and not at the archers.
But their position in the civil war is why I think they would be vulnerable to US aerial attacks against their positions. These air strikes would weaken them, thus threatening their gains in the civil war.
All that said, US should have intervened long before Houthis made these gains. It is not in our national interest to allow the Tehran regime control over any part of the Arabian Peninsula.

Then again, it might be easier to go after the means of production in Iran. Considering their supply to Russia, we just might be killing two birds with one stone. That is, if we wanted to go this route.

Sure. But, as I wrote to Loren, Biden won't even hit the Houthis. He will not hit Iran. His foreign policy has been very timid, going back to the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.

And for how long do we do it?

Short answer: for as long as it takes. But I do not think it would take that long for them to figure out that attacking ships does not profit them.

Well maybe if we took our finger out of their asses (left them alone and learned to mind our own fucking business in these regards) this actually wouldn't make them stronger as angering them seems to make them stronger.

What does that even mean? They are not Hulk.