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How much are genetic variations responsible for the U.S. black-white IQ differences?

How much are genetic variations responsible for the U.S. black-white IQ differences?

  • 0% of differences due to genes

    Votes: 9 50.0%
  • 0-40% of differences due to genes

    Votes: 7 38.9%
  • 50% of differences due to genes

    Votes: 1 5.6%
  • 60-100% of differences due to genes

    Votes: 1 5.6%
  • 100% of differences due to genes

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    18
Aw, the poll is private? I wanted to see who the 5 racists are.

Look, genes play a very big part of the explanation for why human brains are physically different from the brains of other species. I bet you practically all of the intelligence differences between species can be attributed to genetics.

But in comparing groups of humans to other groups of humans? You'd have to be stupid to think genes play a significant role in that. How do I know? China. China has these weird cyclical revolutions that happen every couple of centuries. You can practically calibrate your calendars by these things. Everyone thought that when the communists took over this endless cycle of revolution would end, then the Cultural Revolution happened under Mao right around the time the next revolution should have happened, and it had more or less the same features of all the other revolutions, including rounding up large numbers of smart people and killing them.

Every couple/few centuries, China has been rounding up large numbers of smart people and killing them, and they've been doing this for pretty much all of recorded human history. If genes played a significant role in determining the intelligence of a population compared to other populations, then by now China would be the dumbest nation on the planet, because no other nation slaughters so many smart people with such regularity over such a long period of time.

Just look at the long list of Nobel prize-winners China has produced. Even when you account for their large population, it's a pretty impressive list considering how many nations have never produced a Nobel laureate at all. The Chinese are a lot of things, but they are not the dumbest nation on the planet.

It therefore follows that the genetics of very smart people and the genetics of dumb/average people are identical or nearly identical (aside from certain well-known genetic defects that negatively impact intelligence or learning).

So if you think African-Americans have a lower IQ because of genetics, then you are just looking for a "sciencey" excuse for your racism. It really is that simple.
I think that is a sound argument, so long as the premises are correct and the values are sufficiently extreme. The proportion of the smart people killed would need to be sufficiently high, the average IQ of those killed would need to be sufficiently higher than the survivors, the frequency of such events would need to be sufficiently high, the pattern would need to be sufficiently greater than similar patterns in surrounding populations, and the combined effect would need to sufficiently override the proposed intelligence advantage following from on the order of fifty thousand years of adaptation to a cold climate. If you can research and do the math with plausible estimates, then you have a strong argument. If you have only a gut feeling, then you have the motivation for such an analysis. Speculation shouldn't be overvalued, but it is more than most critics contribute, and you deserve credit for that.
 
In 1995 SAT scores for black students with family incomes of at least $70,000 a year averaged less than SAT scores for white students with family incomes of no more than $10,000 a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1995-SAT-Income.png

In 1995 SAT scores for black students whose parents had graduate degres were lower than for white students whose parents only had high school degrees.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1995-SAT-Education.png

------

IQ Scores of Blacks and Whites Regress toward the Averages of Their Race. Parents pass on only some exceptional genes to offspring so parents with very high IQs tend to have more average children. Black and White children with parents of IQ 115 move to different averages--Blacks toward 85 and Whites to 100.
http://www.news-medical.net/news/2005/04/26/Race-differences-in-average-IQ-are-largely-genetic.aspx

Income isn't the only factor.

Neither is the educational level of the parents. The best predictor of academic performance, and performance on all the mental aptitude tests however they are designed is race.
 
Every couple/few centuries, China has been rounding up large numbers of smart people and killing them, and they've been doing this for pretty much all of recorded human history. If genes played a significant role in determining the intelligence of a population compared to other populations, then by now China would be the dumbest nation on the planet, because no other nation slaughters so many smart people with such regularity over such a long period of time.

Civil unrest has played less of a role in the history of China than in practically every other nation. It is not the case that exceptionally intelligent Chinese were singled out for extermination. The usual pattern has been for one dynasty to follow another fairly quickly.

For two thousand years the Imperial Exam System enabled young men who could pass the exams to enter the Scholar Gentry. Those who could were given generous incomes, and expected to have several wives, and many children. The Imperial Exams were open to Chinese men from every class and income group. Now of course, those born into the Scholar Gentry were more likely to receive the right education to pass the exams. Nevertheless, in every generation poor peasant boys took the highest honors.
 
So if you think African-Americans have a lower IQ because of genetics, then you are just looking for a "sciencey" excuse for your racism. It really is that simple.

The following website demonstrates that there are significant and durable differences in SAT averages between the races.

http://nces.ed.gov/FastFacts/display.asp?id=171

Significant and durable differences between two groups whose averages have also significantly and persistently differed in wealth and educational achievement of the parents doesn't in no way indicate a genetic basis for those differences.

As should be obvious to any person with a passing understanding of how the whole idea of comparing hypotheses works.
 
Every couple/few centuries, China has been rounding up large numbers of smart people and killing them, and they've been doing this for pretty much all of recorded human history. If genes played a significant role in determining the intelligence of a population compared to other populations, then by now China would be the dumbest nation on the planet, because no other nation slaughters so many smart people with such regularity over such a long period of time.

Civil unrest has played less of a role in the history of China than in practically every other nation. It is not the case that exceptionally intelligent Chinese were singled out for extermination. The usual pattern has been for one dynasty to follow another fairly quickly.

For two thousand years the Imperial Exam System enabled young men who could pass the exams to enter the Scholar Gentry. Those who could were given generous incomes, and expected to have several wives, and many children. The Imperial Exams were open to Chinese men from every class and income group. Now of course, those born into the Scholar Gentry were more likely to receive the right education to pass the exams. Nevertheless, in every generation poor peasant boys took the highest honors.

Which pretty conclusively shows that intelligence is not genetic to a sufficiently significant degree to make a big difference.

If peasant boys had taken the highest honours only in the earliest years, with fewer and fewer doing so as time went on, that would support your position. But that is not what we see at all. At least, not according to you.
 
Which "many studies"? If you mean the Kanazawa (2011) "study", that's obvious bullshit for pretty obvious reasons: He doesn't independently measure attractiveness at all. In the British sample, the attractiveness of the kids was rated by their teachers("At ages 7 and 11, the teacher of each NCDS respondent is asked to describe the child's physical appearance"), and in the US sample by the interviewers just after they'd administered the intelligence test ("At the conclusion of the in-home interview at each wave, the Add Health interviewer rates the respondent's physical attractiveness on a five-point ordinal scale"), and he doesn't have any independent ratings by strangers who've had no prior contact to the kids. The most natural interpretation of his results is thus that we tend to overrate the attractiveness of people we've taken a liking to for other reasons (for example, because we know they're intelligent); there may or may not be an effect in the reverse direction too, where teachers subconsciously devote more attention to pretty kids, creating a better learning environment for them. But nothing to suggest a biological basis for the correlation.

In short, he didn't find a correlation between measured intelligence and measured attractiveness, merely a correlation between measured intelligence and attractiveness as rated by people who know and care about the kids' intelligence. If you don't see the difference, you're beyond help.

But there's a more recent and methodologically much sounder study that finds "No relationship between intelligence and facial attractiveness in a large, genetically informative sample". I include the abstract below:

Mitchem et al. said:
Theories in both evolutionary and social psychology suggest that a positive correlation should exist between facial attractiveness and general intelligence, and several empirical observations appear to corroborate this expectation. Using highly reliable measures of facial attractiveness and IQ in a large sample of identical and fraternal twins and their siblings, we found no evidence for a phenotypic correlation between these traits. Likewise, neither the genetic nor the environmental latent factor correlations were statistically significant. We supplemented our analyses of new data with a simple meta-analysis that found evidence of publication bias among past studies of the relationship between facial attractiveness and intelligence. In view of these results, we suggest that previously published reports may have overestimated the strength of the relationship and that the theoretical bases for the predicted attractiveness–intelligence correlation may need to be reconsidered.
Mitchem et al 2014 is a great find, thank you. Kanazawa 2011 got the most attention, but there have been other studys backing the same conclusion, including:


Judging from the abstract, they're making a claim that's totally different from yours: They're not claiming a correlation of beauty and intelligence based on assortative mating, but that both are caused by developmental stability. This is a very different hypothesis with different predictions. If you want to switch to that one, you should make it explicit (also, if that's the case, you can't handwave away Mitchem et al.'s finding - if they correlate not just because of assortative mating but because the same genes influence both, you expect to find correlations even when you just look at siblings).


Same objection as before (not the hypothesis you're peddling), plus, it's published in the journal that accepted Kanazawa's obvious bullshit. Feel free to quote relevant passages or data, but I'm not going to read beyond the abstract (which indicates that it's a different hypothesis they defend, one that should be out of the window with Mitchem et al.'s metastudy).


I don't have access. From the abstract, this is the most relevant of your citations. But an obvious contention is: They had college students as subjects. Surely, by that age, you could argue that people might have found a style that suits their body type, and that on average more intelligent people are simply better at finding such a style, yielding higher ratings without being innately more beautiful? It's not obvious from the abstract how, if at all, they tried to control for such effects.

But I did find another study with a contrary result:

  • Scholz and Sicinski - "Facial Attractiveness and Lifetime Earnings: Evidence from a Cohort Study" 2011 (http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~scholz/Research/Beauty.pdf). This study found a relationship between lifetimes earnings and facial attractiveness but not between IQ and physical attractiveness.
I am inclined to place lower relevance on Mitchem et al 2014 because the claim of the correlation between IQ and beauty would be more applicable to the genetic variations within the whole population and less applicable to genetic variations within families, as genetic variation within families would be expected to be much less. Carriers of genes for both beauty and IQ would tend to mate with each other, non-carriers would mate with each other, and the distributions of inheritance of those genes among their children would be expected to merely add randomization.

That's a relevant objection if you stick with your original hypothesis. Not if you switch to the hypothesis explicitly defended by the majority of your sources. So we apparently have another case of citing evidence that doesn't support your position.

Still, I think that is enough evidence to conclude uncertainty on the matter. The science is divided. Especially salient, to me, is Mitchem et al's finding of publication bias.

I expect you to admit explicitly that your "uncomfortable reality" from a few posts ago may as well be a figment of imagination.
You write with excessive unprovoked hostility, but I appreciate the substance of your criticisms. Thank you.
 
You write with excessive unprovoked hostility, but I appreciate the substance of your criticisms. Thank you.

I do write with hostility. I leave it to the reader to judge whether it's unprovoked. What gets on my (and, I assume, others') nerves is not so much that who hold a contrary position, but the audacity with which you proclaim anyone who disagrees anti-science while supporting your claims with evidence that is at best neutral with respect to them, and often enough actually an argument for the alternative hypothesis.

When you keep telling people who have a better understanding of science than you do that their objections to your (often contradictory) just-so stories are ideologically based and anti-scientific, you shouldn't be surprised when you get some backlash.
 
You write with excessive unprovoked hostility, but I appreciate the substance of your criticisms. Thank you.

I do write with hostility. I leave it to the reader to judge whether it's unprovoked. What gets on my (and, I assume, others') nerves is not so much that who hold a contrary position, but the audacity with which you proclaim anyone who disagrees anti-science while supporting your claims with evidence that is at best neutral with respect to them, and often enough actually an argument for the alternative hypothesis.

When you keep telling people who have a better understanding of science than you do that their objections to your (often contradictory) just-so stories are ideologically based and anti-scientific, you shouldn't be surprised when you get some backlash.
I suggest that you don't just leave it to the reader to judge whether or not your hostility is unprovoked. You can be a good judge of that. It really is unprovoked. I am not hostile toward you, and I ask the same in return. I can learn from you, you are an informed and intelligent critic, and I don't want to just ignore you for the insulting way you deliver your criticisms. Thanks.
 
I do write with hostility. I leave it to the reader to judge whether it's unprovoked. What gets on my (and, I assume, others') nerves is not so much that who hold a contrary position, but the audacity with which you proclaim anyone who disagrees anti-science while supporting your claims with evidence that is at best neutral with respect to them, and often enough actually an argument for the alternative hypothesis.

When you keep telling people who have a better understanding of science than you do that their objections to your (often contradictory) just-so stories are ideologically based and anti-scientific, you shouldn't be surprised when you get some backlash.
I suggest that you don't just leave it to the reader to judge whether or not your hostility is unprovoked. You can be a good judge of that. It really is unprovoked. I am not hostile toward you, and I ask the same in return. I can learn from you, you are an informed and intelligent critic, and I don't want to just ignore you for the insulting way you deliver your criticisms. Thanks.

I'm glad you appreciate our discussion. It gives me some hope. But I'm not going to pretend that I'm not annoyed by your frequent passive-aggressiveness. If you feel you can learn from from our discussion, you'll have to accept it as is. If you want me to help you get a better grasp of the problems associated with some of the studies you're quoting while pretending I'm not annoyed, I might accept remuneration.
 
The poll in the original post is modeled after a poll in Rindermann, Coyle & Becker's "2013 survey of expert opinion on intelligence." I illustrated a side-by-side comparison of the two poll results.

Poll_How_much_are_genetic_variations_responsib.png


Compare the sizes of the two solid black slices. Everything outside of those solid black slices is "racist," but among the intelligence experts the solid black slice of the pie is relatively thin. It doesn't mean they are correct, but I do think most people are completely unaware that "racism" is scientifically mainstream. It is received with either shock or disbelief.
 
The two extreme categories in the expert survey (0% and 100%) overlap with the middle categories, which would explain why the expert survey poll results do not add up to 100%, but I neglected to make that adjustment in the Talk Freethought poll. I will do that next.
 
Nah, I decided pie charts are misleading unless I illustrate overlapping slices. Can't do that in web apps. Maybe Excel or CAD.
 
They had a participation rate of 18%, self-selected. Why the heck would you assume that that produces an unbiased sample? They even had some invitees explicitly refusing on the basis that the "questions were not good".

And there reference to Galton's vox populi is totally out of place. If averaging over a large number of estimates for the weight of an ox yields a better result than almost all individual estimates, that's fine and all but not relevant to whether a poll on this issue will yield a usable result - if only because people don't run around with cultural prejudices about the weight of oxen burnt into their heads since early childhood. And that's even assuming that their sample (with over 80% of addressees not responding) is anywhere near unbiased.
 
They had a participation rate of 18%, self-selected. Why the heck would you assume that that produces an unbiased sample? They even had some invitees explicitly refusing on the basis that the "questions were not good".

And there reference to Galton's vox populi is totally out of place. If averaging over a large number of estimates for the weight of an ox yields a better result than almost all individual estimates, that's fine and all but not relevant to whether a poll on this issue will yield a usable result - if only because people don't run around with cultural prejudices about the weight of oxen burnt into their heads since early childhood. And that's even assuming that their sample (with over 80% of addressees not responding) is anywhere near unbiased.
Yes, you are right. 18% response rate is too low to make for conclusive certainty. There are two external reasons I accept the probability of it. (1) It accords with the results of a previous similar survey in 1984. (2) It accords with the opinions expressed within the field, regardless of whether or not they agree with the perceived majority. The intelligence researcher Richard Nisbett wrote a book titled Intelligence and How to Get it: Why Schools and Cultures Count, in part arguing that the racial IQ gaps were primarily environmental. At the heading of Chapter 6, he quoted Thomas Sowell favorably as follows:

The taboo against discussing race and IQ has not left this an open question. On the contrary, it has had the perverse effect of freezing an existing majority of testing experts in favor of the belief that racial IQ differences are influenced by genetics. No belief can be refuted if it cannot be discussed.

Expressing the fact of a "majority of testing experts" in more detail, Linda Gottfredson wrote a book chapter titled "Suppressing Intelligence Research: Hurting Those We Intend to Help," with a different reason for how that majority opinion came about, excerpt as follows:

Supposedly a fringe scientist, Jensen was actually in the mainstream because the mainstream had silently come to him (Gottfredson, 1997a). Meanwhile, public opinion was still being pushed in the opposite direction, creating an ever-greater gulf between societal perception and scientifically informed thought.

The Silent Majority

It is no mystery why so many experts in intelligence-related fields moved intellectually in Jensen's direction. New research, often conducted by researchers eager to prove him mistaken (e.g., Brody, 1992, p. ix), kept supporting his conclusions. But why was the migration seemingly so secretive? And why did Jensen's colleagues keep silent while the media promulgated clear falsehoods as scientific truths, especially when, as Snyderman and Rothman (1988) demonstrated, the media portrayed expert opinion on intelligence as the opposite of what it really was? Worst of all, why did Jensen's peers turn away, or even throw a few stones themselves, while a brethren scholar with whom they agreed was viciously attacked?​

It is a highly informative and interesting article overall, all about the disastrous taboo against the science. I converted the article to a txt file for easy study, downloadable here.
 
They had a participation rate of 18%, self-selected. Why the heck would you assume that that produces an unbiased sample? They even had some invitees explicitly refusing on the basis that the "questions were not good".

And there reference to Galton's vox populi is totally out of place. If averaging over a large number of estimates for the weight of an ox yields a better result than almost all individual estimates, that's fine and all but not relevant to whether a poll on this issue will yield a usable result - if only because people don't run around with cultural prejudices about the weight of oxen burnt into their heads since early childhood. And that's even assuming that their sample (with over 80% of addressees not responding) is anywhere near unbiased.
Yes, you are right. 18% response rate is too low to make for conclusive certainty. There are two external reasons I accept the probability of it. <snip>

Are you sure those external reasons aren't a post-hoc justification for accepting their conclusions despite the obvious problems?

It is a highly informative and interesting article overall, all about the disastrous taboo against the science. I converted the article to a txt file for easy study, downloadable here.

The martyrdom is strong in this one. Jensen, the author of several best-selling books and recipient of grant money in the millions of dollars from the Pioneer Fund, a victim of academic exclusion who paid a great personal cost for expressing his views? He may or may not have received greater honors within academia if he'd kept them to himself, but even if it's true that he would, what he got instead is much more, at least financially.

Would be equally willing to accept the claims of victimhood of an M.D. who was marginalised in the academic community for propagandising homeopathy, while making millions selling his books on the subject?
 
"Are you sure those external reasons aren't a post-hoc justification for accepting their conclusions despite the obvious problems?"

Yeah, pretty sure. When there are many lines of evidence in favor of a single conclusion and no lines of evidence against it, then the conclusion is probable, in spite of intermediate problems with each each line of evidence. It is the principle of "explanatory scope" or "consilience."
 
The following website demonstrates that there are significant and durable differences in SAT averages between the races.

http://nces.ed.gov/FastFacts/display.asp?id=171

Significant and durable differences between two groups whose averages have also significantly and persistently differed in wealth and educational achievement of the parents doesn't in no way indicate a genetic basis for those differences.

As should be obvious to any person with a passing understanding of how the whole idea of comparing hypotheses works.

In 1995 whites with family incomes of $10,000 or less averaged better SAT scores than blacks with family incomes of $70,000 or better.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1995-SAT-Income.png

In 1995 whites whose parents only got high school degrees averaged higher SAT scores than blacks whose parents had graduate degrees.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1995-SAT-Education.png

"IQ Scores of Blacks and Whites Regress toward the Averages of Their Race. Parents pass on only some exceptional genes to offspring so parents with very high IQs tend to have more average children. Black and White children with parents of IQ 115 move to different averages--Blacks toward 85 and Whites to 100."
http://www.news-medical.net/news/2005/04/26/Race-differences-in-average-IQ-are-largely-genetic.aspx
 
Civil unrest has played less of a role in the history of China than in practically every other nation. It is not the case that exceptionally intelligent Chinese were singled out for extermination. The usual pattern has been for one dynasty to follow another fairly quickly.

For two thousand years the Imperial Exam System enabled young men who could pass the exams to enter the Scholar Gentry. Those who could were given generous incomes, and expected to have several wives, and many children. The Imperial Exams were open to Chinese men from every class and income group. Now of course, those born into the Scholar Gentry were more likely to receive the right education to pass the exams. Nevertheless, in every generation poor peasant boys took the highest honors.

Which pretty conclusively shows that intelligence is not genetic to a sufficiently significant degree to make a big difference.

If peasant boys had taken the highest honours only in the earliest years, with fewer and fewer doing so as time went on, that would support your position. But that is not what we see at all. At least, not according to you.

For two thousand years Chinese males with high IQ's had the largest number of children. Those with low IQ's became coolies and had no children at all. This is why Chinese average high IQ's, and why Chinese immigrants perform well academically and economically everywhere they live.
 
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