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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Jayjay said:
Historical inaccuracy is also not a valid reason for invasion.
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Distortion or really "lies". So, You finally agreed that your side lies about history.
It's a good start. A little more and you will agree that history says that US neocons were responsible for all that. Considering that neocons themselves always take the "credit" .... eventually.
 
Two top Russian billionaires speak out against war | Russia | The Guardian - "Oleg Deripaska and Ukrainian-born Mikhail Fridman call for peace, as activities come under threat from sanctions

‘They were fooled by Putin’: Chinese historians speak out against Russian invasion | China | The Guardian - "An open letter written by five historians denounced the war and called on Beijing to make its stance clearer"

[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/belarus-holds-referendum-to-renounce-non-nuclear-status Belarus votes to give up non-nuclear status | Russia-Ukraine crisis News | Al Jazeera] - "Belarusian referendum renouncing neutral status comes as Russia put nuclear deterrent forces on high alert amid Ukraine war."
Russian news agencies on Monday cited the Belarusian elections commission as saying that some 65.2 percent of people who took part in a referendum voted in favour of the change.

The agencies said voter turnout stood at 78.63 percent.
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Also,
The reforms also cement Lukashenko’s 27-year-old grip on power as they allow the president to stay in power until 2035 and give him lifetime immunity from prosecution once he leaves office.

...
Protesters demanding a new election and Lukashenko’s removal have faced repression from the authorities, with more than 35,000 arrested and thousands brutally beaten. Key opposition figures, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s main contender in the election, left the country amid the clampdown, along with thousands of Belarusians.

Tsikhanouskaya called on Belarusians to use the referendum vote to protest the war against Ukraine.

“For a long time I did not know how to start this appeal. Because how can you demand courageous actions from people who live in fear for a year and a half? The war we’ve been dragged into started two days ago,” she said in a special address.

“But until now, the Belarusians have not declared publicly that they are against it, they have not shown this to the Ukrainians by their actions. So do I have the right to ask you for action? Maybe not. But I won’t forgive myself if I don’t try.”
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Lukashenko warns of 3rd World War, as Belarus prepares to send troops - The Jerusalem Post
You're telling *me*.
"In a situation like this, we should be aware that there are such sanctions. A great deal is being said about the banking sector. Gas, oil, SWIFT. It’s worse than war," said Lukashenko at a referendum on changing Belarus's constitution, according to the Belarusian president's website. "Russia is being pushed towards a third world war. We should be very reserved and steer clear of it. Because nuclear war is the end of everything."
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Ukraine crisis: What does Belarus have to gain, and lose? | News | Al Jazeera - "Lukashenko could benefit politically and financially by siding with Putin, but observers warn his friendship could backfire."
 
So, anyone wants to comment on the video where Pentagon agrees that is NATO who encroaching on Russia not the other way around? Matt Lee video? no takers?
That's what I thought. Throw shit on a wall, sticks - great, does not - try another.
 
Russian central bank moves to stem plunge in ruble

The ruble is in freefall now, so the Russian central bank is desperately trying to save it by raising interest rates. Biden had said it would take weeks for Russia to really feel the effects of the sanctions, but things are moving a lot faster than expected, as people rush to withdraw funds. The benchmark rate was raised from 8.5% to 20%. The ruble has sunk about 30% against the US dollar. It went from trading at an already low 84 rubles to the dollar to a new record--105 rubles. Meanwhile, businesses are losing much of their foreign business, thanks to the withdrawal from SWIFT. Biden said he wouldn't hurt ordinary Russians as much as the wealthy, but these sanctions are going to bite down hard on the public. Nothing like the pain that Russia is inflicting on Ukraine, of course.
 
On 22 January 2010, the outgoing President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko awarded Bandera the posthumous title of Hero of Ukraine.[13] The European Parliament condemned the award,[14] as did Russia,[15] Polish, and Jewish politicians and organizations.[16][17][18] The incoming president Viktor Yanukovych declared the award illegal, since Bandera was never a citizen of Ukraine, a stipulation necessary for getting the award. This announcement was confirmed by a court decision in April 2010.[19] In January 2011, the award was officially annulled.[20] A proposal to confer the award on Bandera was rejected by the Ukrainian parliament in August 2019.[21]

Bandera remains a highly controversial figure in Ukraine,[22][23][24] with some Ukrainians hailing him as a liberator who fought against the Soviet, Polish and Nazi states while trying to establish an independent Ukraine, while other Ukrainians as well as Poland and Russia condemn him as a fascist[25] and a war criminal[26] who was, together with his followers, largely responsible for the massacres of Polish civilians[27] and partially for the Holocaust in Ukraine.[28][29][30][31]
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Coleman Smith said:

Collective defence - Article 5​

"The principle of collective defense is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance."

If Putin attacks Poland or any other NATO member all the NATO members should respond with a defense.

I would include tactical nuclear battle field weapons.
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There's no such thing as a "tactical nuclear weapon". If anyone ever opens that can of worms, no matter how small the nuke is or how little the target, the results will be catastrophic. Soon everyone will be nuking everyone.
 
RVonse said:
That isn't what I am reading at all. You've been indoctrinated by CNN too long. Maybe it's time to actually read what the Chinese CCP media has to report https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253364.shtml?id=12

But he also said, "The legitimate security concerns of all countries should be respected. Given NATO's five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands ought to be taken seriously and properly addressed."

China is very neutral right now. They are not on board with anyone but themselves.
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I must be indoctrinated. I never thought China was acting solely in its best interests. I thought that's how every fucking country acts not just China.

Thank you RVonse, you and Russel Brand have removed the scales from my eyes.
 
Let's see how well the nations do:

The Baltic states are roughly comparable to the US, though their legislatures are roughly comparable to Finland. Looking at the Democracy Index, of the Transcaucasian ex-USSR nations, Georgia and Armenia are roughly comparable to Ukraine and Azerbaijan to Belarus, and the central-Asian ex-USSR "stans" are roughly comparable to Russia and Belarus.

Belarus is even worse as a democracy than Russia is, though Ukraine is halfway there.

I included Finland as a comparison to the US -- Finland is right next door to Russia, and the US is the most powerful nation in the world and the supposed flagship nation of democracy. Finland does better than the US, among the top nations for democracy.

I also included the two Chinas, Taiwan and Communist China. Taiwan is almost as good as Finland, while China is comparable to Belarus.

 List of countries by system of government - BY Pres, RU UA PP - US Pres, FI Parl - CN 1Prty, TW PP
  • Pres - Presidential system (elected executive separate from the legislature)
  • Parl - Parliamentary system (executive chosen by the legislature)
  • PP - Pres-Parl hybrid: Semi-Presidential system
  • 1Prty - One-party system - what the USSR had
I've found that the countries with the top ratings for democracy almost all have parliamentary systems. Taiwan has one of the best pres-parl hybrid systems, and the US has one of the best presidential systems. As one would expect, one-party systems are way down there.

 List of electoral systems by country - Legislature: BY SMD, RU Para, UA Para - US SMD, FI PL - CN ?, TW Para
  • SMD = Single-Member Districts (usually first-past-the-post)
  • PL = Party-List proportional representation
  • Para = SMD and PL side by side
Top-rated democracies usually have party-list systems.

I must note
 Republics of the Soviet Union - the Union of Socialist Socialist Republics. Their names: the Armenian, Azerbaijan, Byelorussian, Estonian, Georgian, Kazakh, Kirghiz, Latvian, Lithuanian, Moldavian, Tajik, Turkmen, Ukrainian, and Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republics, and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. Their present names should be easy to recognize, though some of them have sound changes, like the Byelorussian SSR -> Belarus, and the Moldavian SSR -> Moldova. Some of them have adjective suffixes removed, like the Armenian SSR -> Armenia, and some of them have -stan added, like the Kazakh SSR -> Kazakhstan.
 
barbos said:
So, anyone wants to comment on the video where Pentagon agrees that is NATO who encroaching on Russia not the other way around? Matt Lee video? no takers?
That's what I thought. Throw shit on a wall, sticks - great, does not - try another.
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Um, the only Matt Lee video you linked to is voiced over in Russian. That makes it impossible for me and just about every other forum member to make an informed comment.

Could you provide a link to an English version by any chance?
 
(I posted this earlier in the wrong thread.)

Please treat the following as ignorant questions, rather than comments. I lack any relevant expertise and don't like clicking on depressing news stories.

(1) How dependent is Europe on Russian natural gas? If Russia turned off the spigots, I suppose that might cause inflation and/or recession in countries like Poland, Hungary or even Germany, but would it cause people to freeze to death? Russia is financially dependent on these sales: Are the banking sanctions designed with loopholes to allow these gas exports to continue?

(2) I see the Russian ruble is down 6.4% from a month ago. Is that really a lot? It doesn't seem like that much. (Ukraine's hryvnia has fallen more, thought still not that much.) That was the Ruble price I saw a few hours ago. Just now I see that this morning the ruble fell to 0.9 U.S. pennies for a 30.5% loss compared with a month ago; but it has since clawed its way back somewhat and is now worth almost a penny. How is Ukraine's hryvnia doing?

(3) If Putin decides his invasion was a mistake, is there any way he can withdraw while still saving face? Is the Western goal to stage a face-saving peace conference in which it's pretended that Russia had legitimate grievances?

(4) I'm afraid nuclear confrontation may be possible. The Soviet and Chinese governments never considered a first strike because, however evil or incompetent they might have been, they were operated by committees of rational men. An irrational strike by North Korea's Kim, OTOH, cannot be ruled out: a psychopath might take pride from becoming the most famous evil-doer in history and let his whim outweigh the loss of millions of innocent lives. Where does Putin fit on the sociopathy spectrum?
 
I have now had this explained by a military expert friend. This was, according to him, not a planned attack. If Putin had planned to attack he would have brought other hardware. All evidence points toward it was prepared to be a "special operations" attack. The same thing Putin earlier did in Georgia and Chechnya. That is punching through with a small troop of specialists to carry through a limited and specific attack, and then GTFO. Most of the troops on the border were only intended to confuse Ukraine and act as a screen for the real troops. They weren't intended to actually do any fighting. Special operations was the kind of operation USA did that ended up killing Osama.

en.wikipedia.org

Special operations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

For whatever reason, late in the game, Putin changed his mind, and went for full invasion. But did so with old worn down back-up equipment and less motivated troops.

The amassed forces being second rate is most likely the reason the western experts earlier didn't think Putin would invade.

My expert friend also thinks Putin's invasion of Ukraine is fucked already. With this kind of hardware you need to punch in fast against a disorganized defender. The moment an opponent has time to mount an coordinated defence, the advance grinds to a halt, and is going nowhere. From now on any gains will, by necessity, come at huge costs of human life. Which nobody wants. Not even Putin. If Putin wants to win now he needs a proper mobilization, switch to blitz krieg tactics. And it will take time for him to be in that position. As well as making him unpopular at home.

But it's still a lot of speculation among experts what Putin's end game is. Or why he switched tactic so late. He's a man who is normally good at planning ahead.

Conclusion, Putin did a boo boo

Anyway. None of this is my opinion. I don't really have one. I just thought it was interesting enough to share.
 
barbos said:
bilby said:
barbos said:
Ukraine is allied with Nazi Germany now.
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Nazi Germany ceased to exist in 1945. Was the alliance sponsored by H G Wells?
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How do you know ukrainians know that?
Speaking of which. There are stories from the 90s about pranks in which people dressed like german soldiers would suddenly enter god forgotten villages in different places in Russia and Ukraine. Reaction was quite illuminating.

Anyway, I think I rest my case about Nazi and modern Ukraine.
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I hate to say it, but the above tells me that there isn't much of a chance to compromise with Russia. If the Russians truly believe that Ukrainians are Nazis, probably not much of a chance of peace.
 
So I can explain why the invasion was not done by experienced soldiers or useful equipment:

Either Russia has not been updating their military equipment and just been coasting off the cold war...

Or they sent boys, in broken down toys, so that those boys would become die on Ukrainian soil and thus become martyrs.

Which they would have, in front of the whole world, if not for the media campaign in which the ukranians have been asking "peacefully" that Russians fuck off.
 
Ukraine is releasing former "military" from prisons.
These are mostly so called national battalion members who even Ukraine had to send to prison for war crimes (rapes, kidnapping, murders, using civilians as shields)
25% of these national battalion members were criminals to begin with, but then they were sent to prison for war crimes, now they are releasing them.

Also they were using national battalion members (basically nazi) as commissars distributing them in ordinary conscript units.
Remember video of Snake Island incident where Ukrainian President claimed all "defenders" died? Apparently 13 died in the attack, the rest 82 surrendered.
I suspect Nazi commissar was talking over the radio.
 
barbos said:
Ukraine is releasing former "military" from prisons.
These are mostly nazi who even Ukraine had to send to prison for war crimes (rapes, kidnapping murders, using civilians as shields)
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Well, it's desperate times. Ukranian men in foreign countries are desperately going to Ukraine to fight. There really is no chance for peace as long as Putin remains in power. I heard that Putin's demands for the talks today is for Ukraine to demilitarize and denazify, accepting the loss of the eastern Donbas region, remove all its weapons and recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Again, Putin cannot be trusted. He only negotiates in order to continue the sham, trying to split the allies in their support for Ukraine.
 
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