How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Belarus is not in the EU and doesn't have any special tariff treaty with them, so how would that work?

Easy. Russia currently bans large swatch of EU food products from but not from Belarus, and it has pretty much open border with Belarus. Guess what was/is happening?

The EU association agreement was a real problem for Putin, because his plan was to have Ukraine eventually join the customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (and possible other future states in Russia's sphere of influence). But like you pointed out, a country can't be in multiple customs unions at the same time. Ukraine having a separate customs treaty with the EU (which is what the EU association agreement may have led to eventually) would have closed the door for this plan. That's why Putin ordered his puppet Yanukovich to nix the agreement.

No. yes to something but mostly no. Putin was not happy because it would literally cost Russia money by a large number of different mechanisms. Think of GB leaving EU. But he was not going to war over it, and once Nazi Coup succeeded to remove Yanukovich, Putin said OK, we need to negotiate that so that we (Russia) do not lose too much money on this. He was fine with Ukraine going EU.

He did not order Yanukovich to nix the agreement. Yanukovich would have nixed it anyway. Putin just sweetened the deal for him because Yanukovich being ukrainian knew how to get money from Russia. The EU deal was utter shit and I do mean "shit".
Yanukovich knew that once he signs it, he loses next elections 100%.
New Regime after Yanukovich admitted that deal was shit and it took very long time to sign it even for them, EU added a little of sugar to that shit and they finally signed that deal.


I am very sorry you did not know any of that, I am truly sorry.

 

[barbos]

And he died over 60 years ago.

Yep, and now "Jew" President names streets after him.

Care to provide reliable sourses for this odd statement?

What do you mean sources? You did not know?
The same way you did not know Democratic Poland colluded with Hitler to grab chunk of Czechoslovakia before WW2? And once you did learn it you quietly stopped bitching about Stalin doing the same with Poland?

WWII? JESUS get over WWII. It ended over 75 years ago.

Oh really? now you say get over it? after giving me crap about Stalin for 8 years?
Sorry. You are not going off that easy.

 

[crazyfingers]

On 22 January 2010, the outgoing President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko awarded Bandera the posthumous title of Hero of Ukraine.[13] The European Parliament condemned the award,[14] as did Russia,[15] Polish, and Jewish politicians and organizations

And the incoming Ukraine president recinded it. Cherry pick much?

 

[bilby]

Ukraine is not Russia.

We already know.

Now, go and tell Putin that.

 

[bilby]

Ukraine is allied with Nazi Germany now.

Nazi Germany ceased to exist in 1945. Was the alliance sponsored by H G Wells?

 

[Jayjay]

Stalin made a bargain with Hityler in part for getting a piece of Polan and Finland he thought was Russian. We know how that ended. up.

The USSR gained a piece of Finland in 1940 and of Poland in 1941. Both pieces remained in its possession after WWII.

Yes, they got piece of Finland BEFORE war, not after.
And piece of Poland they got BEFORE the war, was not really a piece of Poland but a piece of Russia they lost or rather left in WW1.

Bullshit. Stalin started the war to grab that land. That hardly counts as getting something "before" the war. And since your granpa fought in that war, you should know that USSR lost territory during the winter war, and only gained it back later in the continuation war and the peace treaty after the war.

Sorry, you are engaging in deception, Russia took part of Finland in Winter War
Then Germany attacked and then you joined them in what you call Continuation war and obviously retook that territory.

Thanks for the correction. I misremembered; Finland briefly held some pre-war Soviet territory during the Continuation War, not during the Winter War. But you should check your history books too. USSR attacked Finland after the interim peace. The secret agreement between Finland and Germany was that Finland wouldn't join until Soviets attacked them first. Göbbels and Hitler of course led Stalin to believe that Finland was on board with the offensive, and Staling being paranoid wouldn't have believed anything else anyway. It's up for speculation what would have happened if Stalin hadn't launched a pre-emptive strike.

But all of this is besides the point. You said Stalin was just taking land that belonged to it before the war. That's still just as much bullshit, even if I mixed up my wars.

By your logic you (Germany&Finland&The Rest) took Ukraine Belarus and were about to take Moscow.
You are gonna get into troubles with this logic. Putin just invaded Ukraine because ukrainians were distorting WW2 history

Historical inaccuracy is also not a valid reason for invasion.

 

[crazyfingers]

And he died over 60 years ago.

Yep, and now "Jew" President names streets after him.

Care to provide reliable sourses for this odd statement?

What do you mean sources? You did not know?
The same way you did not know Democratic Poland colluded with Hitler to grab chunk of Czechoslovakia before WW2? And once you did learn it you quietly stopped bitching about Stalin doing the same with Poland?

WWII? JESUS get over WWII. It ended over 75 years ago.

Oh really? now you say get over it? after giving me crap about Stalin for 8 years?
Sorry. You are not going off that easy.

I have NEVER mentioned Stalin or WWII to you EVER until you brought it up in the last few minutes. Please admit your false accusation.

 

[Coleman Smith]

Collective defence - Article 5​

"The principle of collective defense is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance."

If Putin attacks Poland or any other NATO member all the NATO members should respond with a defense.

I would include tactical nuclear battle field weapons.

 

[lpetrich]

AN-225: World's largest plane reportedly destroyed in Ukraine | CNN Travel

The world's largest aircraft, the Antonov AN-225, has been destroyed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, generating alarm and sadness among the aviation world in which it occupies almost cult status.
The enormous aircraft, named "Mriya," or "dream" in Ukrainian, was parked at an airfield near Kyiv when it was attacked by "Russian occupants," Ukrainian authorities said, adding that they would rebuild the plane.
"Russia may have destroyed our 'Mriya'. But they will never be able to destroy our dream of a strong, free and democratic Europ

Trump calls the US a ‘stupid country’ and praises Putin as ‘smart’ in latest Ukraine comments | The Independent - "Former president doubles down on praise of Putin even as Russia presses on with invasion" - at CPAC

“Yesterday reporters asked me if I thought President Putin is smart. I said of course he’s smart,” he told the crowd at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida.

“The problem isn’t Putin is smart — which of course he is smart — it’s that our leaders are dumb,” he said, adding that Nato nations “are not so smart, they are looking the opposite of smart.”

...
“Under our leadership the world was a peaceful place because America was strong and the perception of our country was perhaps like it had never been before: powerful, cunning and smart. We were a smart country. Now we are a stupid country,” Mr Trump said.

...
“The Russian attack on Ukraine is appalling, an outrage and an atrocity that should have never been allowed to occur. We are praying for the proud people of Ukraine, God bless them all,” he said.

“When you have a weak president who is not respected by other nations you have a very chaotic world. The world hasn’t been this chaotic since World War Two,” he said.

He added that Mr Putin “is playing Biden like a drum and it’s not a pretty thing to watch.” He speculated that the Russian president made his decision to attack Ukraine “only after watching the pathetic withdrawal from Afghanistan.”

Without saying what he would have done differently.

He also is just plain wrong. President Biden is much firmer on Putin's regime than Trump ever was. I suspect that Trump would have enabled that invasion until Congress got outraged enough to impeach him.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine is allied with Nazi Germany now.

Nazi Germany ceased to exist in 1945. Was the alliance sponsored by H G Wells?

How do you know ukrainians know that?
Speaking of which. There are stories from the 90s about pranks in which people dressed like german soldiers would suddenly enter god forgotten villages in different places in Russia and Ukraine. Reaction was quite illuminating.

Anyway, I think I rest my case about Nazi and modern Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

AN-225 was destroyed by ukrainian forces during their attempt to retake Airport.
They basically shelled it.

 

[Swammerdami]

Please treat the following as ignorant questions, rather than comments. I lack any relevant expertise and don't like clicking on depressing news stories.

(1) How dependent is Europe on Russian natural gas? If Russia turned off the spigots, I suppose that might cause inflation and/or recession in countries like Poland, Hungary or even Germany, but would it cause people to freeze to death? Russia is financially dependent on these sales: Are the banking sanctions designed with loopholes to allow these gas exports to continue?

(2) I see the Russian ruble is down 6.4% from a month ago. Is that really a lot? It doesn't seem like that much. (Ukraine's hryvnia has fallen more, thought still not that much.)

(3) If Putin decides his invasion was a mistake, is there any way he can withdraw while still saving face? Is the Western goal to stage a face-saving peace conference in which it's pretended that Russia had legitimate grievances?

(4) I'm afraid nuclear confrontation may be possible. The Soviet and Chinese governments never considered a first strike because, however evil or incompetent they might have been, they were operated by committees of rational men. An irrational strike by North Korea's Kim, OTOH, cannot be ruled out: a psychopath might take pride from becoming the most famous evil-doer in history and let his whim outweigh the loss of millions of innocent lives. Where does Putin fit on the sociopathy spectrum?

 

[barbos]

But you should check your history books too

I am not sure where we disagree here.

The point is, Stalin was paranoid about Leningrad and offered Finland non-negotiable deal, you refused, hence he took the territory in very badly conducted offensive. Germans looked at it and concluded "Russians suck at it, we can run over them in no time" And they almost did.
After the war you being Germany ally most of the war and Russia being a winner meant nobody would probably even ask about that territory.

Stalin was not grabbing land left and right as some people here try to imply.

 

[barbos]

В Испании украинец потопил яхту вице-президента Ростеха

Суд оправдал украинского моряка, когда тот заявил, что таким образом отомстил РФ за обстрел мирного населения в Украине.

korrespondent.net

Great, EU allows to attack russians in EU.
Ironic part here is, there was no russian cruise missile hitting a residential building in Kiev.
It was UKRAINIAN (!!!!) Anti-Aircraft rocket which failed for some reasons. What they were trying to shoot with it is unknown. Could be russian cruise missile or it could be ukrainian plane as they did earlier.

Russia is not dumb enough to waste cruise missiles on ordinary condos of random guys. If it comes to that they would use ordinary bombs.
Stupid dumbass!


PS: Correction, I was told Spanish judge did NOT let it slide. The website itself is actually pro-ukrainian, they might lie a little about it.

 

[bilby]

Ironic part here is, there was no russian cruise missile hitting a residential building in Kiev.
It was UKRAINIAN (!!!!) Anti-Aircraft rocket which failed for some reasons. What they were trying to shoot with it is unknown. Could be russian cruise missile or it could be ukrainian plane as they did yearlier.

 

[barbos]

bilby, another non-sequitur?

 

[Copernicus]

Ukraine is allied with Nazi Germany now. You should be tired with all that goal posts moving. Take a break.

And no, Russia never was allied with Nazis.

Two falsehoods in a row. Nazi Germany doesn't exist anymore, and Stalin allied the Soviet Union (including Russia) with Nazi Germany with the  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which was supplemented by the  German–Soviet Frontier Treaty.

Nazi And Soviet Propaganda's Shared Aesthetic​

A Sinister Alliance: Soviet-German Relations 1939–1941​

 

[DrZoidberg]

It's increasingly starting to look look like the Ukraine will end up an expensive and embarrassing mess for Putin.

It's also clear now that the Ukranian Nazi's was something Putin invented for propaganda reasons and to give him an excuse to attack. All bullshit.

I've also learned from my investment banker friends, with oligarch connections, that the sanctions are hitting Putin right in the nuts, and is risking his actual life. I thought it was a lame an ineffectual response. But it turns out to be the one weapon Putin fears the most.

China is not backing up Putin. That's nice. And gives hope for Taiwan's survival.

This Ukrainian adventure is not at all turning out the way we thought. The worrying neurotics are often right. But often not.

 

[Copernicus]

It's increasingly starting to look look like the Ukraine will end up an expensive and embarrassing mess for Putin.

It's also clear now that the Ukranian Nazi's was something Putin invented for propaganda reasons and to give him an excuse to attack. All bullshit.

I've also learned from my investment banker friends, with oligarch connections, that the sanctions are hitting Putin right in the nuts, and is risking his actual life. I thought it was a lame an ineffectual response. But it turns out to be the one weapon Putin fears the most.

China is not backing up Putin. That's nice. And gives hope for Taiwan's survival.

This Ukrainian adventure is not at all turning out the way we thought. The worrying neurotics are often right. But often not.

But the worrying thing about Putin being backed into a corner is his threat of using nuclear weapons. If he is becoming suicidal, he may have no inhibitions about taking everyone else with him. I just hope that the Russian military has more rational actors in the top leadership that will draw the line at carrying out crazy orders. According to the Woodward-Costa book published in 2021, General Milley became so worried about Trump's mental stability that he took secret measures to limit Trump's ability to launch an unprovoked nuclear attack.

 

[barbos]

It's increasingly starting to look look like the Ukraine will end up an expensive and embarrassing mess for Putin.

I think Pentagon overestimated Russian millitary, they were basically equating them to their own military.

It's also clear now that the Ukranian Nazi's was something Putin invented for propaganda reasons and to give him an excuse to attack. All bullshit.

So you double down in your denial, typical you.