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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
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Politesse
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Whereas invading civilian spaces with his own tanks is just fine and dandy? He's really gone round the twist.
Keith&Co.
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Just start saying, "I wish i could find shells for my T-72" where your phone or Alexa can hear, then see what ads you start to get.
SLD
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Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine
For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?
Barbos frequently quotes John Mearshimer who has been very critical of US foreign policy in Ukraine before the war, going back to 2008 when we indicated we supported Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. We should have anticipated the Russian response but we kept pushing regardless, refusing to acknowledge legitimate Russian security concerns.
He also says that Russia is only interested in breaking off the Donbas area of Ukraine and would stop without going into Eastern Ukraine. Earlier I predicted that would be as far as he went, and I was dead wrong. So I’m not sure I agree any longer With him. I think war has a way of expanding and getting out of control, and I think we are seeing that happening right now. Putin’s failures means he has to double down. He expected some kind of quick shock and awe victory which Ukrainian resistance has stalled out. The longer the fight continues, the more violence and escalation Putin has to use, and the more the war expands into something he didn’t foresee. He may have to completely occupy all of Ukraine in order to prevail, and he definitely doesn’t have the forces to do so, nor really the time needed. This war could last years. And if it does, really bad things will happen to both Ukraine and Russia.
Any kind of perceived military failure will seriously endanger Putin’s grip on power. If the war drags on for really just months, it will be perceived as a failure. Thats why he is escalating the shelling of the cities. He wants to force them to surrender. A long siege of Kiev will be bad for the Russians. If he can’t force Zelensky to surrender completely and soon (which he might) he may find himself out of power quickly and without warning. This could end very badly for him.
Another point Mearshimer makes is that we are focusing on the wrong threat; the larger threat to US interests is China. And to counter that, we need Russia as a friend. I tend to agree, but where I disagree is that we can do so with Putin in place. Obviously not after this fiasco. Furthermore, I think we are witnessing that Russia, aside from its nukes, is not much of a military threat. It can’t invade and occupy the Baltic’s, or Poland nor the rest of Europe. It’s conventional forces suck so far. Of course it might be able to use nuclear blackmail to achieve its aims. But I think it shows that we can counter a Chinese conventional threat without having to worry about our eastern flank in Europe.
Finally, I think this whole thing will inure to our benefit in the long run. If this turns out to be a quagmire, which it is as of now, then this will be his downfall, and Russia will be severely weakened for decades to come. So again, Mearshimer is wrong. Their failures will only help our abilities to counteract any issues with China. And China will see that. I think the quagmire will make them seriously re-evaluate any operation against Taiwan. The severity of any economic sanctions will also give them pause. They may keep up their rhetoric, but they will not want to see the consequences.
Politesse
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"Tired of wearing a mask? Concerned about your civil liberties? Consider a move to sunny IDAHO! Where there is Room To Breathe (tm). * "Just start saying, "I wish i could find shells for my T-72" where your phone or Alexa can hear, then see what ads you start to get.
*six months free ammo for new residents who commit to a lease of 2 or more winters.
lpetrich
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- Ukraine reportedly foiled a Zelensky assassination plot after a tipoff from Russian authorities - The Week
- Ukraine foils alleged plot to assassinate Zelenskyy, claims official | Euronews
- President Zelensky: Russia assassination plot foiled thanks to 'information from the FSB', Ukraine claims - inews.co.uk - "A plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly been thwarted by the nation’s armed forces"
- Assassination attempt against Volodymyr Zelensky is foiled, Ukraine says - The Washington Post
The FSB is the Russian State Security Service, the main successor of the Soviet Union's KGB.
lpetrich
Contributor
- Germany seizes Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s $600m superyacht – report | Russia | The Guardian - "amburg authorities seized the 156-metre Dilbar as yachts belonging to five other Russian billionaires headed to the non-extradition Maldives"
- Germany seizes Russian billionaire Usmanov's yacht -Forbes | Reuters
- U.S. wants to seize Russian oligarchs' yachts, homes and jets. How is that legal? - "A new task force is leading the charge to seize proceeds from "the crimes of Russian oligarchs." The action is tied to a law used as a tool against terrorists and fugitives."
Vladimir Putin, however, kept his yacht from that fate: Putin's Yacht Graceful Left Germany Amid Sanction Warnings: Report
Jimmy Higgins
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Let's be blunt. barbos could put himself in danger if he saw the truth. Russia is hiding what is occurring in Ukraine for a reason.
Elixir
Made in America
Given what’s going on, even admitting that one is forbidden from seeing the truth sounds possibly dangerous.
Kudos to @barbos for stepping out.
But there are probably bigger fish to fry right now for the people responsible for seeing after such things. Billionaires making grumbling noises has to be Pootey’s primary concern right now, as far as “domestic security” goes.
Kudos to @barbos for stepping out.
But there are probably bigger fish to fry right now for the people responsible for seeing after such things. Billionaires making grumbling noises has to be Pootey’s primary concern right now, as far as “domestic security” goes.
I don't think there is any real cause for concern for Russian citizens yet. IMO you'll know shit got real when Putin speaks English because he always seems to do so when something is really really important to him.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
That's a very interesting interview with Mearsheimer. It is regrettable that barbos mostly never wanted to discuss anything about the videos he posted unless it supported his narrative, so he just kept making minimal replies to posts about them and then kept insisting that nobody had watched the videos. But I suspect his English comprehension may not have been good enough to really follow them, and he may have only come across the videos as references in Russian media somewhere.Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine
For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?www.newyorker.com
Barbos frequently quotes John Mearshimer who has been very critical of US foreign policy in Ukraine before the war, going back to 2008 when we indicated we supported Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. We should have anticipated the Russian response but we kept pushing regardless, refusing to acknowledge legitimate Russian security concerns.
He also says that Russia is only interested in breaking off the Donbas area of Ukraine and would stop without going into Eastern Ukraine. Earlier I predicted that would be as far as he went, and I was dead wrong. So I’m not sure I agree any longer With him. I think war has a way of expanding and getting out of control, and I think we are seeing that happening right now. Putin’s failures means he has to double down. He expected some kind of quick shock and awe victory which Ukrainian resistance has stalled out. The longer the fight continues, the more violence and escalation Putin has to use, and the more the war expands into something he didn’t foresee. He may have to completely occupy all of Ukraine in order to prevail, and he definitely doesn’t have the forces to do so, nor really the time needed. This war could last years. And if it does, really bad things will happen to both Ukraine and Russia.
Any kind of perceived military failure will seriously endanger Putin’s grip on power. If the war drags on for really just months, it will be perceived as a failure. Thats why he is escalating the shelling of the cities. He wants to force them to surrender. A long siege of Kiev will be bad for the Russians. If he can’t force Zelensky to surrender completely and soon (which he might) he may find himself out of power quickly and without warning. This could end very badly for him.
Another point Mearshimer makes is that we are focusing on the wrong threat; the larger threat to US interests is China. And to counter that, we need Russia as a friend. I tend to agree, but where I disagree is that we can do so with Putin in place. Obviously not after this fiasco. Furthermore, I think we are witnessing that Russia, aside from its nukes, is not much of a military threat. It can’t invade and occupy the Baltic’s, or Poland nor the rest of Europe. It’s conventional forces suck so far. Of course it might be able to use nuclear blackmail to achieve its aims. But I think it shows that we can counter a Chinese conventional threat without having to worry about our eastern flank in Europe.
Finally, I think this whole thing will inure to our benefit in the long run. If this turns out to be a quagmire, which it is as of now, then this will be his downfall, and Russia will be severely weakened for decades to come. So again, Mearshimer is wrong. Their failures will only help our abilities to counteract any issues with China. And China will see that. I think the quagmire will make them seriously re-evaluate any operation against Taiwan. The severity of any economic sanctions will also give them pause. They may keep up their rhetoric, but they will not want to see the consequences.
I agree with you about Mearsheimer's claims about Putin's intentions, and that came off to me very strongly in the interview. In fact, I found some of his remarks a bit weaselly at times towards the end. The interviewer did a good job of pressing him on his claims about Putin's intentions. Mearsheimer wanted to cling to the line that Russia was pursuing its "legitimate security concerns" and that this was all about big power politics. He pooh-poohed the claim that Putin was trying to reestablish the Russian or Soviet Empire, even when confronted with some pretty damning evidence to the contrary, including Putin's infamous historical essay. I was surprised that he seemed to be hanging on to his defense with the rather weak reference to a quote, where Putin said “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.” I was astonished that he saw this quote as supporting his claim that Putin didn't want to conquer Kiev, just establish a neutral or friendly regime there. The Soviet Union was a Communist regime with an ideology that was entirely contrary to the one that has made Putin the wealthiest man in the world. True, he was formerly a Party member. However, he doesn't want that back. He still wants Ukraine, but not as a Soviet Socialist Republic in some kind of Union. He wants Ukraine to be transformed into "little Russia" again and the Ukrainian nationalist movement to be exterminated. Putin is more into the pre-Soviet tsarist empire, and he uses tsarist language to support that
So Mearsheimer clings to this idea that Putin will just put some quisling at the head of a much diminished, but compliant, Ukraine just because he takes Kyiv and possibly kills all the current leadership. As if Ukrainians in western Ukraine would stop fighting or supporting insurgents in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. Somehow, his handpicked quisling leader is going to be accepted as the leader of the rest of Ukraine. And then the US should work really, really hard to be friends with Russia, i.e. be practical and objective and pay no attention to the immorality of betraying Ukraine and NATO allies. Rather, the US should just turn its back on Europe. The great United States should pivot to China with its newfound friend Russia in some kind of fraternal kindred spirit. (This is the same China that is currently buying all of that oil and gas from Russia and abstained from voting to condemn Russia in the UN resolution.) Perhaps all the other little countries in Europe and Asia would fall in line with the great powerhouse USA-Russia alliance? Mearsheimer strikes me as suffering from a massive delusion of how it would be possible to reshape US foreign policy in such a way that would be so bizarre and unrealistic. And then the president that does all of this somehow manages to get reelected. How is this vision of the future objective or realistic?
lpetrich
Contributor
lpetrich
Contributor
Oops, duplicate.
Vessel Gross Tonnage Calculator | Delaware Business Incorporators, Inc.
A convention in ship features that one must watch out for: tonnage is a measure of volume, not mass. In particular, 1 ton of tonnage = 100 cubic feet = 2.83 cubic meters.
Thus, Alisher Usmanov's yacht has an internal volume of about 45,000 cubic meters. With a length of 156 meters and a beam (width) of 23.5 m, that means a rectangular-solid height of 12.3 m. A rule of thumb for correcting for the ship's shape is to divide by 2/3, and that gives us an estimated vertical extent of 18.4 m.
Vessel Gross Tonnage Calculator | Delaware Business Incorporators, Inc.
A convention in ship features that one must watch out for: tonnage is a measure of volume, not mass. In particular, 1 ton of tonnage = 100 cubic feet = 2.83 cubic meters.
Thus, Alisher Usmanov's yacht has an internal volume of about 45,000 cubic meters. With a length of 156 meters and a beam (width) of 23.5 m, that means a rectangular-solid height of 12.3 m. A rule of thumb for correcting for the ship's shape is to divide by 2/3, and that gives us an estimated vertical extent of 18.4 m.
- At Least 5 Russian Billionaires' Yachts Are Now in Maldives: Report
- Yacht seized as U.S. ramps up oligarch sanctions so Putin 'feels the squeeze' | Reuters
- Vladimir Putin(?) -- Russia(?) -- GRACEFUL yacht (Blohm & Voss, 82m, 2014)
- Alisher Usmanov -- Hamburg, Germany -- DILBAR yacht (Lurssen, 156m, 2016)
- Igor Sechin -- La Ciotat, France -- AMORE VERO yacht (Oceanco, 85.6m, 2013)
- Alexander Abramov -- Maldives -- TITAN yacht (Abeking & Rasmussen, 78.43m, 2010)
- Oleg Deripaska -- Maldives -- CLIO yacht (Lurssen, 72.6m, 2004)
- Vladimir Potanin -- Maldives -- NIRVANA yacht (Oceanco, 88.5m, 2012)
- Viktor Rashnikov -- Maldives -- OCEAN VICTORY yacht (Fincantieri, 140m, 2014)
Last edited:
Tigers!
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Oops.
steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
The Ukrainian economy in prat cal terms is gone. Ukraine is gone. Even if Russia immediately withdrew It would be difficult for the Ukrainians to get back to where they were before the invasion.
At this point I am for complete and total isolation of Russia. Theridk is what an unstable Putin may do.
At this point I am for complete and total isolation of Russia. Theridk is what an unstable Putin may do.
Jimmy Higgins
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Zelensky's life is pretty much the tipping point for that one.