How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

Today Putin is saying the sanctions are a declaration of war.

I was afraid that would happen.

Well, if Putin thinks war has already been declared, what's stopping NATO from bombing the shit out of his artillery around Ukrainian cities?

The only thing holding us back was supposed to be our reluctance to get into a war with Russia. If the Russians think we already are in such a war, what do we stand to lose by prosecuting that war, and throwing his forces out of Ukraine?

Good question. I think it has to do with Pootey’s possible death wish, and willingness to try to take the rest of the world with him. And NATO countries that don’t want to sign on. It’s still not an article 5 situation.

Russia unable to control the country and Ukrainians unable to expel the Russians is a stalemate

If it remains in that state long enough, sure. But it’s not a stable arrangement.
The US is even gone from Afghanistan. I don’t think it will take that long for this to resolve. Russia is not going to do another Afghan-style adventure. They’ll either have a coup in Moscow and go home, or Putin will raze the cities and exterminate whatever population they can’t subjugate. Like he did in Aleppo.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[blastula]

That tweeter also keeps track of Russian equipment losses. Here's a thread he keeps updating.



Also has an updating web page here.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[blastula]

Wishful thinking. @barbos will be free to post propaganda on IIDB throughout this conflict. I mean, I do hope barbos stays safe and active on this forum regardless of whether I disagree with his (her?) opinion.

Edit: I'm really not kidding about Barbos staying safe.

Eh, he's said he is in Siberia, so very far from the action. He only has to worry if he says anything against the war, so he'll be fine.

 

[ZiprHead]

Seen elsewhere:

Rep. Dean Phillips tweeted

@RepDeanPhillips
The Ukrainian Ambassador very intentionally asked each of us on the zoom to NOT share anything on social media during the meeting to protect the security of President Zelenskyy. Appalling and reckless ignorance by two US Senators.

Quote Tweet

The Recount
@therecount
Pres. Zelenskyy is currently addressing U.S. senators on a Zoom call this morning. Sens. Rubio and Daines just tweeted screenshots.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

 

[crazyfingers]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

Putin has nukes. Will he attack a NATO country? How far will he go? He's not stable.

 

[bilby]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

Cowardice.

If we continue to resile from doing the right thing because we are afraid that a bully might respond with insane levels of violence, then the bully can do whatever he wants to do to anyone - including us.

The question isn't "dare we call his bluff?", it's "how much are we going to concede before we realise we have no choice but to call his bluff?".

France could have easily prevented Germany from re-arming in the 1930s. They could have sent in troops to kick the Germans out of the Rhineland; They could have invaded and beaten the crap out of the Wehrmacht when the Sudetenland was annexed. But instead they let things go and let things go, in the fear that another war with Germany would be devastating - and eventually, Germany proved them right.

They gained nothing from waiting but misery.

 

[Elixir]

Putin has nukes. Will he attack a NATO country? How far will he go? He's not stable.

At the very least, he knows the advantages of convincing “The West” that he is stark raving mad.

In WWII no Country had the capability to destroy a continent in an evening.

 

[Trausti]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

This is insanity. The invasion may be bad, but it’s not our war. Agitating for a wider conflict is just nuts.

 

[zorq]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

This is insanity. The invasion may be bad, but it’s not our war. Agitating for a wider conflict is just nuts.

Appeasing those who threaten violence is nuts too. You do know the reason you don't negotiate with terrorists and extortionists right?

 

[bilby]

"It's not our war" - America, 1914.

"It's not our war" - America, 1939.

Slow learners.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

We can’t just call it a no fly zone and expect Russia to respect it. We would likely have to take out any surface to air missile systems.

 

[bilby]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

We can’t just call it a no fly zone and expect Russia to respect it. We would likely have to take out any surface to air missile systems.

Sure; A 'no fly zone' implies the deployment of air supremacy fighters to shoot anything unauthorised down; And that likely implies ground attack aircraft (and possibly special forces troops on the ground, designating targets) to destroy radars and AAA systems that might otherwise be used to shoot down that enforcement force.

It's a major escalation.

That doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.

 

[TV and credit cards]

We’ll know soon. Current worries are Russia will start indiscriminately bombing cities with many civilians trapped. If NATO is to react, that’d be the time.

Ukraine pilots are trying to get Poland’s old MiGs. Hopefully that transfer happens soonest.

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine pilots are trying to get Poland’s old MiGs. Hopefully that transfer happens soonest.

I heard that plan was scrapped. No ground support facilities or trained A&P personnel.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin spouts hyperbole when he says that sanctions are a declaration of war, but there is a sense in which sanctions are a warlike act. Although the US and Russia are both nuclear powers, neither can attack the other conventionally without risking global annihilation. The protocol for the use of nuclear weapons in Russia specifically allows use of nuclear weapons when Russia is in a position of losing a conventional war. See:

Factbox: The chain of command for potential Russian nuclear strikes​

Economic warfare is still a tactic used in real war--blockades, embargoes, sabotage, etc. From that perspective, Russia "declared war" against the US when it used cyberwarfare to attack and weaken companies and infrastructure that the US depends on for its well-being. Russian meddling in the US election is another case of how Russia could be said to have "declared war" against the US. The Skripal poisoning in the UK by known Russian agents that used a deadly nerve agent (and killed UK citizens) was certainly an act of war that could be called a "declaration" in Putin's sense.

Anyway, Putin knows, or ought to know, the difference between a declaration of war and a hostile act that does not involve a military attack. It's just that nobody is certain anymore whether the man has enough mental capacity to know the difference or really care.

 

[SLD]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

This is insanity. The invasion may be bad, but it’s not our war. Agitating for a wider conflict is just nuts.

What’s insane is allowing this genocide to happen again. We need to take out Putin’s capability to inflict further casualties in Ukraine. We could do it in a heartbeat. And he won’t go nuclear for the very reason that we aren’t attacking Russia and knows we’d retaliate massively. We’d just attack his forces in Ukraine. Just a few good air strikes would do it. They’d be sent reeling. Their soldiers want no part of this fight.

 

[zorq]

It is easy to see through Putin's lies.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine pilots are trying to get Poland’s old MiGs. Hopefully that transfer happens soonest.

I heard that plan was scrapped. No ground support facilities or trained A&P personnel.

I was wondering about that, if they would have to fly in and out of Poland. But latest in AP is the transfer could happen if the donated MiGs are backfilled with F-16s as a priority. One hiccup is the next batch of F-16s is slated for Taiwan.

AP story.