How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

I don’t normally agree with Republicans, but this appears to be a bipartisan agreement: Why the fuck isn’t Biden stopping Russian oil imports?

Because you just know every Republicunt will blame Biden for petrol prices., and this would give them a bullshit narrative to run wild with.

 

[bilby]

The West needs to find ways to attack that wouldn't merit Russian escalation

By definition, that's impossible.

Russia (Putin) could decide to escalate for any reason - or for no reason at all.

He has already done so, several times.

Every time we step back from action because we fear escalation, we make escalation a more desirable option for Putin.

The only solution to to stop being cowardly. The sooner we do that, the less damaging it will be; The longer we go on appeasing to avoid escalation, the worse the outcome will be when we eventually say "no more".

 

[Copernicus]

There's a letter going around from an alleged FSB analyst on his thinking of the situation...

Interesting read, but don't forget that Sushko is a Ukrainian. Why would an FSB agent confide in him like this? It would be a death sentence, if the agent were found out.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine pilots are trying to get Poland’s old MiGs. Hopefully that transfer happens soonest.

I heard that plan was scrapped. No ground support facilities or trained A&P personnel.

I was wondering about that, if they would have to fly in and out of Poland. But latest in AP is the transfer could happen if the donated MiGs are backfilled with F-16s as a priority. One hiccup is the next batch of F-16s is slated for Taiwan.

AP story.

Ukraine doesn't have pilots that can fly the F-16, nor does it have stores to load on to them. At best a F-16 could do one sortie and that's it, and unless it was a volunteer F-16 pilot flying it that sortie would almost certainly be a failure. You can't just substitute planes like that and expect success.

 

[blastula]

There's a letter going around from an alleged FSB analyst on his thinking of the situation...

Interesting read, but don't forget that Sushko is a Ukrainian. Why would an FSB agent confide in him like this? It would be a death sentence, if the agent were found out.

Oh sorry, I thought I included the sourcing for Sushko as the top tweet there, which should have been.



Which founder would be Vladimir Osechkin. Sushko only translated it.

 

[lpetrich]

I doubt that evangelical Protestants will like what kind of religion that the Putin regime likes: the Russian Orthodox Church. It would be too Catholic-like for their taste: lavish ritual, veneration of saints, ornate houses of worship and religious garments, ...

Russia is *very* bad about freedom of "non-traditional" religion, like persecuting the Jehovah's Witnesses as "extremists".

Russia: Escalating Persecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses | Human Rights Watch

Russia Tightens Restrictions on Churches and Missionary Activity | Persecution

U.S. Report Says Russia Among 'Worst Violators' Of Religious Freedom

Countries of Particular Concern, Special Watch List Countries, Entities of Particular Concern - United States Department of State

• Countries of Particular Concern: Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
• Special Watch List Countries: Algeria, Comoros, Cuba, and Nicaragua.
• Entities of Particular Concern: Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Houthis, ISIS, ISIS-Greater Sahara, ISIS-West Africa, Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, and the Taliban.

2021 Annual Report.pdf
Recommendations:

• CPC: Burma, China, Eritrea, India, Iran, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Vietnam
• SWL: Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Cuba, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nicaragua, Turkey, Uzbekistan
• EPC: Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, the Houthis, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), and the Taliban.

Most of the persecutors are Muslims. Here are all the countries where it's non-Muslims doing the persecuting:

• CPC: Burma, China, Eritrea, India, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam
• SWL: Cuba, Nicaragua
• EPC: (none)

The EPC's:  Al-Shabaab (militant group) (Somalia),  Boko Haram (N Nigeria),  Houthi movement (Yemen),  Islamic State (Iraq, Syria),  Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (Mali),  Islamic State – West Africa Province (Chad Basin),  Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (NW, W Africa),  Tahrir al-Sham (Syria),  Taliban (Afghanistan)

Of the non-Muslims, the reasons are:

• Communists: China, Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam (though nowadays, NK effectively has a religion, worship of its Kim dynasty as god-kings)
• Opposition of unrecognized religious orgs: Eritrea, Russia
• Related to ethnic persecution: Burma (Myanmar)
• Nationalist-related: India
• Doing nonreligious things that the gov't dislikes: Nicaragua

 

[Copernicus]

Barbos has parroted Putin's ridiculous "denazification" claim here as a valid excuse for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the following article does a good job of sorting the truth from the distortions. Putin's past as a KGB agent gives him some expertise in how to construct effective propaganda memes, and the use of half-truths to spin a lie is an art. There is some underlying truth to the Nazi fib, so it is worth learning about the history.

Ukraine's Nazi problem is real, even if Putin's 'denazification' claim isn't​

(BTW, if you haven't seen the movie Everything Is Illuminated (film), you definitely ought to. It is a fascinating tragicomedy about a young American (played by Elijah Wood aka Frodo Baggins in Lord of the Rings) who goes to Ukraine in search of his Jewish ancestry. Superb soundtrack, with outstanding songs by Leningrad. )

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The West needs to find ways to attack that wouldn't merit Russian escalation

By definition, that's impossible.

Russia (Putin) could decide to escalate for any reason - or for no reason at all.

He has already done so, several times.

Every time we step back from action because we fear escalation, we make escalation a more desirable option for Putin.

The only solution to to stop being cowardly. The sooner we do that, the less damaging it will be; The longer we go on appeasing to avoid escalation, the worse the outcome will be when we eventually say "no more".

The West has effectively declared economic war on Russia. We are seeing economic resistance and pullouts of the likes we haven't seen since South Africa... and certainly at a rate that is unprecedented. And SWIFT can be completely pulled out from Russia's access for additional economic escalation.

Probably shouldn't open things up to WWIII at the moment when we can attempt to economically contain this. Currently losing hundreds or a thousand civilians a week is more digestible than tens of thousands. And if things are as bad as rumored with the Russian Army, this could go belly up within itself.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine pilots are trying to get Poland’s old MiGs. Hopefully that transfer happens soonest.

I heard that plan was scrapped. No ground support facilities or trained A&P personnel.

I was wondering about that, if they would have to fly in and out of Poland. But latest in AP is the transfer could happen if the donated MiGs are backfilled with F-16s as a priority. One hiccup is the next batch of F-16s is slated for Taiwan.

AP story.

Ukraine doesn't have pilots that can fly the F-16, nor does it have stores to load on to them. At best a F-16 could do one sortie and that's it, and unless it was a volunteer F-16 pilot flying it that sortie would almost certainly be a failure. You can't just substitute planes like that and expect success.

Old MiGs from Poland go to Ukraine. F-16 from US go to Poland to replace the MiGs.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

You are presuming knowledge we have no clue on. NSA might have a better idea, but I have no idea and neither do you. I think it is definitely unknown if the Russian military would follow through on a tactical nuclear strike.

I would certainly hope the Biden administration is exercising other contacts besides Putinistas. Trying to get through to members of Putin the Pig's mob is banging your head against the wall. There are other contacts and these contacts have to be worked tirelessly.

 

[steve_bank]

I would think it would be very risky for anyone in Russian govt to go around Putin talking to Biden.

Attack helicopters designed to kill tanks are a major part of the plan for war with Russia. It is all predicated on air superiority.

It us all proablities. In a battle with Russian tanks each attack helicopter has a probability of destroying X number of tanks before being shot down. There are anti tank weapons that can be launched a ta distace out of sight that can identify and attack individual tanks.

The ategcy has an interwoven set of systems.

So far the Russian army does not appear to be performing well, maybe Ukraine will prevail. Without the NATO arsenal Russai can stand back and destroy with artillery and missiles which is what they appear to be doing.

 

[crazyfingers]

I don't understand why Russian air power over Ukraine seems to be minimalist.

 

[Copernicus]

This CNN report is about the secret airfield from which weapons and materiel are being delivered to Ukraine. I don't know why they even allowed this to be reported on, but it gives some insight into how the US and Europeans are trying to supply Ukraine in their fight against mass murder being conducted by Putin and his army.

At a secret airfield in Eastern Europe, a multinational effort to send weapons to Ukraine proceeds at high speed​

Meanwhile, some Russians in St. Petersburg have begun to move across the Finnish border in a steady stream on the strength of a rumor that Putin will declare martial law.

War in Ukraine: The Russians leaving Russia for Finland​

There are new laws to stifle protest. I believe that people who post things deemed harmful to Russia or the war effort can face a 15-year jail term, so barbos is at risk posting anything here now. VPNs might be more tightly controlled than in the past, so his internet access could be curtailed or blocked. Putin remembers how things were run in East Germany, so he may be thinking that the crackdown should be at least as harsh inside of Russia as it was for the Germans.

 

[Keith&Co.]

This CNN report is about the secret airfield from which weapons and materiel are being delivered to Ukraine. I don't know why they even allowed this to be reported on,

Because everyone keeps demanding that NATO does SOMETHING! This is SOMETHING!

 

[Copernicus]

Here is an example of the kind of propaganda that Pravda is feeding its readers these days. There is a nice picture of Russian soldiers goose-stepping in a parade. That is actually a tradition in the Russian military that goes back to the rivalry between Russia and Prussia before WWI. Russians picked up the goose step practice from the Prussian military. If the link comes up in Russian, you may have to use Google Translation to see the English. It may be temporarily unavailable because of a  Denial-of-service attack. If so, try again later.

Political scientist: Russian soldiers risk their lives so that Ukrainians live peacefully

I used to subscribe to Pravda back in the 1960s, when it was the official organ of the Communist Party of the USSR. It used to be all about exciting information about factory and farm production on the cover page. You had to go to the back pages to get the political propaganda. The modern Pravda is much more dominated by official fake news.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia unable to control the country and Ukrainians unable to expel the Russians is a stalemate.

Like the USA in Afghanistan Russia will stay in Ukraine at any cost knowing there is no political or military solution.

I don't think it's at all given that Russia will be unable to control the territory (or the parts it intends to keep at least). Russia held Crimea and "people's republics" for 8 years with ease. It'll just as easily be able to hold rest of Donbas and the coastline.

Well, that's not quite the same. Ukraine was kind of trying to abide by the Minsk agreements over the 8 year period. Also, the territory that the "people's republics" were actually occupying was actually really small, lightly populated, and the people who did live there were largely Russian supporting populations. After 8 years, everyone who wasn't Russian supporting was shipped out/evacuated, cowed to silence, or purged of their lives by the rebel/Russian forces.

And what's to stop that from happening again?

There is likely going to be another Minsk-like agreement being forced on whatever remains of Ukraine, which means skirmishes on the border but no full-scale mobilization of the army against the breakaway regions. Also, Odessa is about the same size as Donetsk. And as far as I know, the southern coastline is also mostly Russian-speakers who voted for Yanukovich; not that different from the demographic structure of the "people's republics".

I think there's nothing to stop Russia from repeating 2014. Putin will win this, because fuckers like him don't care about sanctions or civilian casualties.

 

[Copernicus]

The NYTimes reports a temporary setback for Russian advances on the Black Sea coast. There is also a heartbreaking story about a Russian family attempting to flee Kyiv. They were caught in a Russian mortar round attack. The picture is difficult to look at.

Live Updates: Ukrainian Forces Drive Back Russian Advance on Key Port City​

 

[lpetrich]

So Pravda is a sort of Russian Fox News?

I once wrote a story where some people described their efforts to learn about the Soviet Union in the late 1950's.

She continued "It can be difficult to learn about the Soviet Union, with all their 'we are building a great and wonderful society' and 'we exceeded our quota of farm vehicles to make' and 'we peace-loving people stand together against our imperialist enemies' and stuff like that."
"So it's a lot of self-congratulation?"
"It sometimes seems like that. You often have to look for what they don't say."

 

[Copernicus]

So Pravda is a sort of Russian Fox News?

I once wrote a story where some people described their efforts to learn about the Soviet Union in the late 1950's.

She continued "It can be difficult to learn about the Soviet Union, with all their 'we are building a great and wonderful society' and 'we exceeded our quota of farm vehicles to make' and 'we peace-loving people stand together against our imperialist enemies' and stuff like that."
"So it's a lot of self-congratulation?"
"It sometimes seems like that. You often have to look for what they don't say."

Russians became adept at reading between the lines. Newspapers were cheap back then, and, when I was there in 1965, I noticed that they were frequently used for toilet paper in the public toilets.

 

[Politesse]

I don’t normally agree with Republicans, but this appears to be a bipartisan agreement: Why the fuck isn’t Biden stopping Russian oil imports?

Americans have literally gone to war for "lower gas prices" on multiple occasions.