How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

Getting controlled nuclear fusion to work has been VERY difficult. That's because the fuel nuclei are VERY hard to push together by ordinary standards. One needs very high temperatures and/or very high densities, and attempts to make such temperatures and/or densities require a LOT of energy input, making it doubtful whether it will ever be possible to get enough energy from the reactions to make those reactions happen. That is the case for the two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement.

Fortunately, there is an alternative.

Renewable-energy technologies.

Like wind energy and solar energy.

Modern societies require reliable 24x7 electricity supply.

Any technology that cannot provide that is not a viable alternative to the status quo.

Viable grid-scale storage on the scale needed to make wind and/or solar into a genuine alternative to fission, hydro, and geothermal is just as much a pipe dream as viable fusion power.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, obviously, and I noted this earlier. Fusion is usless if it requires more energy to achieve than it ouputs, as is currently true. But IF this can be overcome then fusion has distinct advantages over fission and every other energy source.

Yes, and if I was in a relationship with Alison Hannigan, I'd be having sex with Alison Hannigan. And I think the prospects of fusion within my lifetime are very similar to my having sex with Alison Hannigan.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Getting controlled nuclear fusion to work has been VERY difficult. That's because the fuel nuclei are VERY hard to push together by ordinary standards. One needs very high temperatures and/or very high densities, and attempts to make such temperatures and/or densities require a LOT of energy input, making it doubtful whether it will ever be possible to get enough energy from the reactions to make those reactions happen. That is the case for the two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement.

Fortunately, there is an alternative.

Renewable-energy technologies.

Like wind energy and solar energy.

You misspelled geothermal and hydro-electric. Costa Rica is the first to go nearly 100% green and most of that is dam electricity, not wind and solar.

 

[pood]

Well, obviously, and I noted this earlier. Fusion is usless if it requires more energy to achieve than it ouputs, as is currently true. But IF this can be overcome then fusion has distinct advantages over fission and every other energy source.

Yes, and if I was in a relationship with Alison Hannigan, I'd be having sex with Alison Hannigan. And I think the prospects of fusion within my lifetime are very similar to my having sex with Alison Hannigan.

I never said otherwise. Check back where I said fusion power is always fifty years in the future.

 

[lpetrich]

As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note - The New York Times - "President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past."

Poland offers MiG fighters to the U.S. as Ukraine asks for help - POLITICO

Poland is offering to transfer all of its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets “immediately and free of charge” to a U.S. air base in Germany, a likely precursor to the jets being delivered to Ukraine.

The announcement Tuesday came after a week of back-and-forth negotiations between the U.S. and Warsaw about the transfer, and amid Russian warnings that delivering the jets to Ukraine would be seen as a provocation.

Polish officials also invited other owners of Russian-made military aircraft to send their old MiG's to Ukraine.

 

[lpetrich]

Modern societies require reliable 24x7 electricity supply.

Any technology that cannot provide that is not a viable alternative to the status quo.

Viable grid-scale storage on the scale needed to make wind and/or solar into a genuine alternative to fission, hydro, and geothermal is just as much a pipe dream as viable fusion power.

That's silly. If the cost difference between synthetic and petroleum motor oils is any guide, then it's not far off. Synthetic ones are made with the Fischer-Tropsch process, though their hydrogen is from natural-gas reforming.

AAA Spills the Truth on Oil Changes | AAA Newsroom
After discussing the superior performance of synthetic motor oils, the article got into their cost.

Switching from a conventional oil to a synthetic oil will cost the average driver $64 more per year, or an extra $5.33 per month. A survey of AAA’s Approved Auto Repair facilities reveals that the average cost of a conventional oil change is $38, while a synthetic oil change is $70. For those that change their vehicle’s oil themselves, the average cost of 5 quarts of conventional oil is approximately $28, while synthetic oil is $45. AAA’s survey also shows that vast majority (83 percent) of service professionals select synthetic oil for their personal vehicles.

That's something like 60% (DIY) to 80% (by a professional mechanic) more, and that's a far cry from controlled nuclear fusion's borderline feasibility.

Renewable-energy technologies.

Like wind energy and solar energy.

You misspelled geothermal and hydro-electric. Costa Rica is the first to go nearly 100% green and most of that is dam electricity, not wind and solar.

Yes, those work, but they are not very well distributed. Hydroelectric power requires plenty of elevation differences and a lot of precipitation on the higher altitudes, and geothermal power requires either geological activity or else drilling far down.

By contrast, wind and sunlight are *much* better distributed.

I never said otherwise. Check back where I said fusion power is always fifty years in the future.

Yes indeed, while we've been seeing wind energy and solar energy follow Wright's law  Experience curve effects very well. That's a curve of technology learning: cost per unit is some negative power of the total number of units produced. It holds for a variety of technologies, and so far, it has held for wind turbines and photovoltaic cells. So it seems likely to hold for improved batteries and electrolysis systems.

 

[Jayjay]

As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note - The New York Times - "President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past."

Poland offers MiG fighters to the U.S. as Ukraine asks for help - POLITICO

Poland is offering to transfer all of its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets “immediately and free of charge” to a U.S. air base in Germany, a likely precursor to the jets being delivered to Ukraine.

The announcement Tuesday came after a week of back-and-forth negotiations between the U.S. and Warsaw about the transfer, and amid Russian warnings that delivering the jets to Ukraine would be seen as a provocation.

Polish officials also invited other owners of Russian-made military aircraft to send their old MiG's to Ukraine.

Not sure how helpful those MiGs will be. Ukrainian airfields are under attack, and can probably be demolished. Would Poland or any other country let Ukrainian pilots to use their airfields? How would Russia respond to that, as it's really close to said countries getting involved militarily in the conflict? Does Ukraine even have enough pilots?

 

[bilby]

Getting controlled nuclear fusion to work has been VERY difficult. That's because the fuel nuclei are VERY hard to push together by ordinary standards. One needs very high temperatures and/or very high densities, and attempts to make such temperatures and/or densities require a LOT of energy input, making it doubtful whether it will ever be possible to get enough energy from the reactions to make those reactions happen. That is the case for the two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement.

Fortunately, there is an alternative.

Renewable-energy technologies.

Like wind energy and solar energy.

You misspelled geothermal and hydro-electric. Costa Rica is the first to go nearly 100% green and most of that is dam electricity, not wind and solar.

France, Norway, Iceland, Brazil, New Zealand and Sweden all generate electricity from "nearly 100% green" sources, and so do Ontario and Tasmania, if we want to include states and provinces as well as nations.

All use hydro, geothermal and/or nuclear as the backbone of their systems; Most have little wind or solar, and those - like France - who have tried to add wind and solar, have found that they also need to add fossil gas when they do that.

If you have a grid mostly powered by nuclear, hydro, and/or geothermal, then wind and solar are needless to avoid fossil fuel use. If you don't, then they are merely inadequate.

Wind + Hydro can work, but only if (like Brazil and Norway) you have a LOT of very reliable hydropower.

 

[blastula]

 

[steve_bank]

In the new the jets are out.

I thought Germnay shut down its home solar program .

 

[Copernicus]

As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note - The New York Times - "President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past."

Poland offers MiG fighters to the U.S. as Ukraine asks for help - POLITICO

Poland is offering to transfer all of its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets “immediately and free of charge” to a U.S. air base in Germany, a likely precursor to the jets being delivered to Ukraine.

The announcement Tuesday came after a week of back-and-forth negotiations between the U.S. and Warsaw about the transfer, and amid Russian warnings that delivering the jets to Ukraine would be seen as a provocation.

Polish officials also invited other owners of Russian-made military aircraft to send their old MiG's to Ukraine.

Not sure how helpful those MiGs will be. Ukrainian airfields are under attack, and can probably be demolished. Would Poland or any other country let Ukrainian pilots to use their airfields? How would Russia respond to that, as it's really close to said countries getting involved militarily in the conflict? Does Ukraine even have enough pilots?

I'm not sure that the Polish announcement was anything more than an attempt to steamroller the US into agreeing to the plan. The Polish idea is to dump the old Migs in US hands in Germany and then get the upgraded jets in their place. The US would then be responsible for delivering the Migs. US officials who were first asked about this made noncommittal responses, as if this was the first they had heard of such a deal. The problem is that there seems to be no way to get the Migs to Ukraine without triggering some kind of strong Russian response that could involve our allies. The US does not want to see a widening of the war to NATO countries, so they have not been as enthusiastic as the Poles about the idea. I don't think the Germans would like to get dragged into the scheme either. I'm surprised that the US would agree to it.

 

[Jayjay]

France, Norway, Iceland, Brazil, New Zealand and Sweden all generate electricity from "nearly 100% green" sources, and so do Ontario and Tasmania, if we want to include states and provinces as well as nations.

All use hydro, geothermal and/or nuclear as the backbone of their systems; Most have little wind or solar, and those - like France - who have tried to add wind and solar, have found that they also need to add fossil gas when they do that.

If you have a grid mostly powered by nuclear, hydro, and/or geothermal, then wind and solar are needless to avoid fossil fuel use. If you don't, then they are merely inadequate.

Wind + Hydro can work, but only if (like Brazil and Norway) you have a LOT of very reliable hydropower.

The thing with hydro is that in developed countries, it's already built up. You can't get more by just investing in it, because there aren't any more locations left where you can get much more power. Sure, you could dam up smaller and smaller rivers but that's a game of rapidly diminishing returns.

All the growth is going to come from wind and solar. And maybe nuclear to back it up. Not sure if geothermal power is a big factor yet, maybe to replace electricity for heating.

 

[bilby]

All the growth is going to come from wind and solar.

Nope. They only grow if you grow whatever your backup is.

As you say, it can't be hydro; So it's either gas (counterproductive if greenhouse gas reduction is your objective), or nuclear.

But nuclear makes wind or solar pointless. If you've built enough to cover the gaps in the wind and solar supply, then you've built enough to not need that wind and solar supply at all. So why bother building it? It's not as though wind or solar are better in any way than nuclear.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

France, Norway, Iceland, Brazil, New Zealand and Sweden all generate electricity from "nearly 100% green" sources, and so do Ontario and Tasmania, if we want to include states and provinces as well as nations.

All use hydro, geothermal and/or nuclear as the backbone of their systems; Most have little wind or solar, and those - like France - who have tried to add wind and solar, have found that they also need to add fossil gas when they do that.

If you have a grid mostly powered by nuclear, hydro, and/or geothermal, then wind and solar are needless to avoid fossil fuel use. If you don't, then they are merely inadequate.

Wind + Hydro can work, but only if (like Brazil and Norway) you have a LOT of very reliable hydropower.

The thing with hydro is that in developed countries, it's already built up. You can't get more by just investing in it, because there aren't any more locations left where you can get much more power. Sure, you could dam up smaller and smaller rivers but that's a game of rapidly diminishing returns.

All the growth is going to come from wind and solar. And maybe nuclear to back it up. Not sure if geothermal power is a big factor yet, maybe to replace electricity for heating.

You need electricity to make geothermal work. That is why you don't replace an existing heating system for geothermal to save money, you never recover the cost. You can displace natural gas use, but not electricity and this is well off topic. We should ban the person that got bilby all riled up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note - The New York Times - "President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past."

Poland offers MiG fighters to the U.S. as Ukraine asks for help - POLITICO

Poland is offering to transfer all of its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets “immediately and free of charge” to a U.S. air base in Germany, a likely precursor to the jets being delivered to Ukraine.

The announcement Tuesday came after a week of back-and-forth negotiations between the U.S. and Warsaw about the transfer, and amid Russian warnings that delivering the jets to Ukraine would be seen as a provocation.

Polish officials also invited other owners of Russian-made military aircraft to send their old MiG's to Ukraine.

Not sure how helpful those MiGs will be. Ukrainian airfields are under attack, and can probably be demolished. Would Poland or any other country let Ukrainian pilots to use their airfields? How would Russia respond to that, as it's really close to said countries getting involved militarily in the conflict? Does Ukraine even have enough pilots?

I'm not sure that the Polish announcement was anything more than an attempt to steamroller the US into agreeing to the plan. The Polish idea is to dump the old Migs in US hands in Germany and then get the upgraded jets in their place. The US would then be responsible for delivering the Migs. US officials who were first asked about this made noncommittal responses, as if this was the first they had heard of such a deal. The problem is that there seems to be no way to get the Migs to Ukraine without triggering some kind of strong Russian response that could involve our allies. The US does not want to see a widening of the war to NATO countries, so they have not been as enthusiastic as the Poles about the idea. I don't think the Germans would like to get dragged into the scheme either. I'm surprised that the US would agree to it.

Yeah, the trouble is how to get the MiGs there (and where in there). I think the goal is still to hope the Russian military disintegrates. And keeping NATO out of it is the only way to get there. But as soon as we try to get food and medical supplies into sieged areas of Ukraine, Putin will say NATO troops are fighting Russia.

Personally, I ponder Western resolve. Maneuvers are about that will rise the price of oil, gasoline, and natural gas. And Westerners, especially Americans, can get pretty whiny about prices. In two weeks, Americans might be protesting Biden demanding we give Ukraine to Russia so we aren't paying $4 to $6 a gallon for gas.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Anyone who knows anything about spent fuel assemblies in cooling ponds will appreciate the extreme danger that now exists as the Chernobyl site is without electricity. I think this is more terror tactic from Putin the Pig, if he even gives a shit about other human lives or ever has.

Chernobyl without Power

 

[Harry Bosch]

Anyone who knows anything about spent fuel assemblies in cooling ponds will appreciate the extreme danger that now exists as the Chernobyl site is without electricity. I think this is more terror tactic from Putin the Pig, if he even gives a shit about other human lives or ever has.

Chernobyl without Power

Wow, potentially a huge huge issue above. I just don't know what to say about Putin. He's not as evil as Hitler. But he's the greatest threat to world peace that we've seen since Hitler. Does anyone think that I'm exaggerating?

 

[pood]

No, I think he is as evil as Hitler.

 

[Elixir]

Maybe the precipitous decline in human population numbers that I have been predicting for decades, is nearer than I thought.
Envision a year 2100 where only about a billion humans remain. Putin is remembered as earth’s savior, having delivered the planet from a slow death at the hands of ten billion people. Plant and animal species flourish in niches created in the ruins of disused structures while those people who remain use still surviving technologies to turn the earth into a garden of Eden.
Yay Pootey!!
/# notgonnahappen

 

[Keith&Co.]

Putin is remembered as earth’s savior,

nah. He'll be one of the heroes of dehumanizing the planet, but not the savior.
By then, everyone will KNOW that a dedicated Chinese virologist created C19 to destabilize the world, which opened opportunities for Putin, Trump, Ronald McDonald, Joe Lockheed, other adjusters to earth's over-population.