How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

 

[barbos]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

What are you smoking?
Nobody is going to invade them, but if it happens, there will be no war.
Motivated my ass. They have maybe couple of battalions of nazis who are motivated.
The rest will not fight. Georgians were motivated and lost to ... a much less equipped russian army. Russian army has changed a lot since then, they have shitload of new shiny toys and practiced in Syria.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

What are you smoking?
Nobody is going to invade them, but if it happens, there will be no war.
Motivated my ass. They have maybe couple of battalions of nazis who are motivated.
The rest will not fight. Georgians were motivated and lost to ... a much less equipped russian army. Russian army has changed a lot since then, they have shitload of new shiny toys and practiced in Syria.

Why always the name calling? It's so juvenile.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why always the name calling? It's so juvenile.

Question followed by answer?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

Take Ukraine like they took Afghanistan I suppose. Tsar Putin will likely go down in history as the last great imperialist dumbfuck. He could be building his country but chooses instead to build his ego.

 

[TV and credit cards]

As always with Russia, the question one must ask is not what Russia is saying, but rather, why are they saying it?”

I fear it's the third explanation. Putin may feel this is the best time to move militarily and that the holidays is the best time to execute it.

 

[Harry Bosch]

As always with Russia, the question one must ask is not what Russia is saying, but rather, why are they saying it?”

I fear it's the third explanation. Putin may feel this is the best time to move militarily and that the holidays is the best time to execute it.

I'm hearing that they plan to invade just after the holidays. Below is another explanation for the sudden Putin impulse to invade, a little wag the dog:

MSN

 

[Copernicus]

I think that we are all in trouble. Putin still has considerable leverage in that he can cut off Europe from the gas (Europe probably needs the gas more than Putin needs the trade) and he can threaten war (including nuclear war) with the west. We are in a tough spot in that we can't withdraw Nato from the eastern European countries. Perhaps we can negotiate with Russia by not expanding NATO in Europe in exchange for Russia not invading. But this will only work if Ukraine is significantly beefed up with defensive weapons to persuade Russia that an invasion would be very painful.

I do agree though that Putin is not the genius chess mystro that he makes himself out to be. Nato has had lots of cracks into it started by Trump wanting them to beef up, but nato countries wanting to reduce military spending and focus on their economies. But rather than exploit this, Russia starting ratching up their agression - uniting Nato countries again. But it's a very dangerous time...

I think that you are underestimating the cost to both Putin and his cronies and to Russia itself. Their economy is already very weak and dependent on sales of oil and gas. It's true that they can cut off supplies of energy to Europe, but it isn't true that their economy can survive long without the revenue from oil and gas exports. So both Europe and Russia need each other. Moreover, cutting off the energy to Europe, especially Germany, might well be what triggers the spread of the war beyond Ukraine.

The other major shoe to drop is the possibility of cutting the ruble off from foreign exchange, which would cause the value of the ruble to plummet and make it extremely difficult for Russia to avoid a major economic collapse. The US has already moved in the past to make it more difficult to exchange rubles for dollars, but it stopped short of actually blocking such activity in primary markets. I think that Biden's threat to levy heavy economic penalties for an invasion was a veiled threat to do just that.

There is no question that economic chaos would follow an invasion of Ukraine, but the danger of a nuclear war would also increase dramatically. Putin may be so desperate that he is willing to risk it. It makes me recall the assurances given by Mearsheimer in the first video that barbos posted. He repeated several times that Putin was "too smart" to do crazy things. If he does invade, he likely intends to stop after grabbing substantially more territory, but it is questionable whether he will be fully in control after he goes down that road.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

Yup. Rifles and anti-tank missiles can make things very painful for an invader if they have terrain that's good to hide in.

Disperse your soldiers hidden where the enemy is coming. The orders are to fire once and bug out, to repeat the same thing farther along.

 

[barbos]

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

Yup. Rifles and anti-tank missiles can make things very painful for an invader if they have terrain that's good to hide in.

Disperse your soldiers hidden where the enemy is coming. The orders are to fire once and bug out, to repeat the same thing farther along.

Assuming there will be tanks and soldiers to shoot at.
For war to start it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.
Then Russian air-force will start exterminating their army and wait when they surrender or withdraw.

people think that Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine have actual war between them. In reality they have not had that in years. They just shot randomly at each other from time to time. Nothing sophisticated.

By the way, it's a big question if Ukraine still have ammunition. They are using what is left from Soviet Union. They've got shitload of it but that was a long time ago. A lot of it was stolen and sold to 3rd world countries and a lot was lost in fires to cover theft. Small arms ammunition is not the problem I understand but artillery is.

 

[barbos]

Ukrainian army shoots Javelin missile and ...... misses the target


Russian army terminating TOW snipers in Syria:


"freedom fighter" on the last video was hit pretty much in his stupid head.

 

[Elixir]

...it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Oh bullshit. It will just be Pootey falsely claiming "western aggression" again.
If, that is, he decides to proceed with his expansionist ambitions. Meanwhile, he is building up a whole catalog of stupid demands that nobody is going to listen to. If/when he attacks Ukraine, the fact that "the west" didn't bow to his ridiculous demands will be his excuse.

Does anyone in Russia really think it is Pootey's place to tell NATO what they may and may not do, or to tell other countries what they may or may not do in regard to NATO?

To get some perspective, line up all the countries and territories that Russia and its previous Soviet incarnation have attacked in its imperialist crusades, absorbed, tried to assimilate against their will etc.. Then compare that list with all the countries and territories NATO has similarly tried to forcibly contain under its control. Then you can see the utterly contemptible nature of Pootey's posturing.

 

[barbos]

...it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Oh bullshit. It will just be Pootey falsely claiming "western aggression" again.
If, that is, he decides to proceed with his expansionist ambitions. Meanwhile, he is building up a whole catalog of stupid demands that nobody is going to listen to. If/when he attacks Ukraine, the fact that "the west" didn't bow to his ridiculous demands will be his excuse.

Does anyone in Russia really think it is Pootey's place to tell NATO what they may and may not do, or to tell other countries what they may or may not do in regard to NATO?

To get some perspective, line up all the countries and territories that Russia and its previous Soviet incarnation have attacked in its imperialist crusades, absorbed, tried to assimilate against their will etc.. Then compare that list with all the countries and territories NATO has similarly tried to forcibly contain under its control. Then you can see the utterly contemptible nature of Pootey's posturing.

You would be surprised but Russia are not as bad as US/GB in terms of invading.
For example it never invaded US or Great Britain. Whereas both Great Britain and US invaded Russia. GB invaded Russia multiple times, US at least once. Lots of Eastern European countries invaded Russia too, for no good reasons other than 1917 revolution/coup, which by the way was orchestrated by ..... Germany.
Lots of republics got into Russia by asking for protection, for example Georgia did so.
And virtually all Soviet republics were getting more money than they gave.
Especially baltic states and .... Georgia, which was most ridiculous republic in terms of economics. And commies let Finland go once and Baltic States ... twice.

 

[TV and credit cards]

...it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Oh bullshit. It will just be Pootey falsely claiming "western aggression" again.
If, that is, he decides to proceed with his expansionist ambitions. Meanwhile, he is building up a whole catalog of stupid demands that nobody is going to listen to. If/when he attacks Ukraine, the fact that "the west" didn't bow to his ridiculous demands will be his excuse.

Does anyone in Russia really think it is Pootey's place to tell NATO what they may and may not do, or to tell other countries what they may or may not do in regard to NATO?

To get some perspective, line up all the countries and territories that Russia and its previous Soviet incarnation have attacked in its imperialist crusades, absorbed, tried to assimilate against their will etc.. Then compare that list with all the countries and territories NATO has similarly tried to forcibly contain under its control. Then you can see the utterly contemptible nature of Pootey's posturing.

You would be surprised but Russia are not as bad as US/GB in terms of invading.
For example it never invaded US or Great Britain. Whereas both Great Britain and US invaded Russia. GB invaded Russia multiple times, US at least once. Lots of Eastern European countries invaded Russia too, for no good reasons other than 1917 revolution/coup, which by the way was orchestrated by ..... Germany.
Lots of republics got into Russia by asking for protection, for example Georgia did so.
And virtually all Soviet republics were getting more money than they gave.
Especially baltic states and .... Georgia, which was most ridiculous republic in terms of economics. And commies let Finland go once and Baltic States ... twice.

Wow. You’d think they’d be clamoring to get the yoke back on. But no. Seems the only ones with any interest in cozying up to Little Soviet Union are Russians living in eastern Ukraine. By the way, how did there come to be so many Russians living there anyways?

 

[Elixir]

...it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Oh bullshit. It will just be Pootey falsely claiming "western aggression" again.
If, that is, he decides to proceed with his expansionist ambitions. Meanwhile, he is building up a whole catalog of stupid demands that nobody is going to listen to. If/when he attacks Ukraine, the fact that "the west" didn't bow to his ridiculous demands will be his excuse.

Does anyone in Russia really think it is Pootey's place to tell NATO what they may and may not do, or to tell other countries what they may or may not do in regard to NATO?

To get some perspective, line up all the countries and territories that Russia and its previous Soviet incarnation have attacked in its imperialist crusades, absorbed, tried to assimilate against their will etc.. Then compare that list with all the countries and territories NATO has similarly tried to forcibly contain under its control. Then you can see the utterly contemptible nature of Pootey's posturing.

You would be surprised but Russia are not as bad as US/GB in terms of invading.
For example it never invaded US or Great Britain. Whereas both Great Britain and US invaded Russia. GB invaded Russia multiple times, US at least once. Lots of Eastern European countries invaded Russia too, for no good reasons other than 1917 revolution/coup, which by the way was orchestrated by ..... Germany.
Lots of republics got into Russia by asking for protection, for example Georgia did so.
And virtually all Soviet republics were getting more money than they gave.
Especially baltic states and .... Georgia, which was most ridiculous republic in terms of economics. And commies let Finland go once and Baltic States ... twice.

So funny! Reaching back over 100 years to put up an excuse for today’s Russian aggression is a rhetorical tactic worthy of pootey himself.
Just out of curiosity though….
When did any of those countries annex Russia?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

So funny! Reaching back over 100 years to put up an excuse for today’s Russian aggression is a rhetorical tactic worthy of pootey himself.
Just out of curiosity though….
When did any of those countries annex Russia?

Correct. And never mind the fact that US/GB sent zillions of tons of supplies to Russia in its war against Hitler.

 

[Copernicus]

For war to start it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Just like Polish aggression provoked Nazi Germany to attack. For proof, see the  Gleiwitz Incident. Luckily for Poland, Stalin had his troops ready to save half the country from a Nazi occupation of the eastern half of its country. See the  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

Meanwhile, the US has agreed to talk in Geneva with Putin in January, after which it is likely that Putin will attack. Putin seems desperate for any kind of concession that he can sell as a reason to stop himself from plunging his country into another war. It's going to be hard to come up with something that he can use to save face, since his demands are crazy.

US and Russia agree to talk as Putin hits out on Ukraine​

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

Yup. Rifles and anti-tank missiles can make things very painful for an invader if they have terrain that's good to hide in.

Disperse your soldiers hidden where the enemy is coming. The orders are to fire once and bug out, to repeat the same thing farther along.

Assuming there will be tanks and soldiers to shoot at.
For war to start it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.
Then Russian air-force will start exterminating their army and wait when they surrender or withdraw.

The air force will attack what?? The troops will be dispersed, there will not be anything to bomb.

By the way, it's a big question if Ukraine still have ammunition. They are using what is left from Soviet Union. They've got shitload of it but that was a long time ago. A lot of it was stolen and sold to 3rd world countries and a lot was lost in fires to cover theft. Small arms ammunition is not the problem I understand but artillery is.

I don't think they would have use for much artillery anyway--it would quickly be counterbatteried. Ukraine's only viable strategy here is guerilla tactics. The best thing to do with the artillery shells is repurpose them as command-detonated mines.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I don't think they would have use for much artillery anyway--it would quickly be counterbatteried. Ukraine's only viable strategy here is guerilla tactics. The best thing to do with the artillery shells is repurpose them as command-detonated mines.

Putin isn't the brightest bulb on the string but he's a bit clever. He'd much rather have Eastern Ukraine without a fight and without guerilla warfare. Give him credit for trying.

 

[barbos]

...it would have to be Ukrainians starting it by attacking Easter Ukraine.

Oh bullshit. It will just be Pootey falsely claiming "western aggression" again.
If, that is, he decides to proceed with his expansionist ambitions. Meanwhile, he is building up a whole catalog of stupid demands that nobody is going to listen to. If/when he attacks Ukraine, the fact that "the west" didn't bow to his ridiculous demands will be his excuse.

Does anyone in Russia really think it is Pootey's place to tell NATO what they may and may not do, or to tell other countries what they may or may not do in regard to NATO?

To get some perspective, line up all the countries and territories that Russia and its previous Soviet incarnation have attacked in its imperialist crusades, absorbed, tried to assimilate against their will etc.. Then compare that list with all the countries and territories NATO has similarly tried to forcibly contain under its control. Then you can see the utterly contemptible nature of Pootey's posturing.

You would be surprised but Russia are not as bad as US/GB in terms of invading.
For example it never invaded US or Great Britain. Whereas both Great Britain and US invaded Russia. GB invaded Russia multiple times, US at least once. Lots of Eastern European countries invaded Russia too, for no good reasons other than 1917 revolution/coup, which by the way was orchestrated by ..... Germany.
Lots of republics got into Russia by asking for protection, for example Georgia did so.
And virtually all Soviet republics were getting more money than they gave.
Especially baltic states and .... Georgia, which was most ridiculous republic in terms of economics. And commies let Finland go once and Baltic States ... twice.

So funny! Reaching back over 100 years to put up an excuse for today’s Russian aggression is a rhetorical tactic worthy of pootey himself.
Just out of curiosity though….
When did any of those countries annex Russia?

You asked for it. Don't blame me. Yes, UK have invaded Russia multiple times.
Poland is known to annex Russia in the past. Poland was much much bigger than it is now.