How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

It feels almost like Barbie is daring us to designate him - and all Russians by association - as subhumans with zero regard for truth, human life or rights of others.

I will say this - Barbos and the shit he spews makes it increasingly difficult for me to find empathy towards any Russian. If that's his goal he's doing a magnificent job.

 

[Jayjay]

We are continually told that the sanctions aren't working, but...

Russia Defaults On LNG Supplies To India

Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said.

India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said...

That seems to be incorrect. Other sources say that the Singapore company is a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, which is now owned by German government. Nothing to do with Russia anymore despite maybe the name still being used.

I don't think Russia gives a flying fuck about delivering LNG to Germans at this point. There are other buyers.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It feels almost like Barbie is daring us to designate him - and all Russians by association - as subhumans with zero regard for truth, human life or rights of others.

I will say this - Barbos and the shit he spews makes it increasingly difficult for me to find empathy towards any Russian. If that's his goal he's doing a magnificent job.

Yea, I think that it's a real mistake to assume that Barbos and Putler make up this tiny fringe group in Russia that wants war and believes in nonsense. The belief that if something happens to Putler, and he dies from some mysterious disease, the Russians will return home and glory will reign again. In fact, I'm hearing analysts report that it could get worse if Putler were to die. That Russians want more pain in Ukraine, but the Russian army is running out of soldiers, running out of ammunition, running out of resolve.

IMO, I think that the crazies have taken over in Russia. I think that it would be very analogous to crazy Q believing people in the US. They believe what they believe, and it doesn't matter that they don't have evidence for their beliefs. But in Russia, the crazies are in charge. We're going to be in for a long war with them. And hiding with our heads in the sand hoping that they won't eventually attack us or NATO, isn't going to work.

 

[Harry Bosch]

We are continually told that the sanctions aren't working, but...

Russia Defaults On LNG Supplies To India

Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said.

India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said...

That seems to be incorrect. Other sources say that the Singapore company is a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, which is now owned by German government. Nothing to do with Russia anymore despite maybe the name still being used.

I don't think Russia gives a flying fuck about delivering LNG to Germans at this point. There are other buyers.

Who is going to buy the gas that is transported in the Russian constructed pipelines going into Europe? If not the Europeans (Germany). It will hurt the Russians when they can't sell this gas.

 

[Jayjay]

We are continually told that the sanctions aren't working, but...

Russia Defaults On LNG Supplies To India

Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said.

India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said...

That seems to be incorrect. Other sources say that the Singapore company is a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, which is now owned by German government. Nothing to do with Russia anymore despite maybe the name still being used.

I don't think Russia gives a flying fuck about delivering LNG to Germans at this point. There are other buyers.

Who is going to buy the gas that is transported in the Russian constructed pipelines going into Europe? If not the Europeans (Germany). It will hurt the Russians when they can't sell this gas.

I said LNG, i.e. liquefied natural gas that's delivered via ships. Pipelines are a different matter; in fact the reason why Russia would want to restrict LNG going to Europe.

As the article pointed out, India will probably buy LNG directly from Russia instead.

 

[ZiprHead]

50,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine

Britain's top military officer, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, revealed the figure after meeting Ukrainian officers

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Copernicus]

We are continually told that the sanctions aren't working, but...

Russia Defaults On LNG Supplies To India

Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said.

India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said...

That seems to be incorrect. Other sources say that the Singapore company is a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, which is now owned by German government. Nothing to do with Russia anymore despite maybe the name still being used.

I don't think Russia gives a flying fuck about delivering LNG to Germans at this point. There are other buyers.

No, it's correct. You are right that Germany assumed control of the company in April as part of the sanctions program, but the company was still contracted to deliver Russian cargoes to India. If you read further down in the article, you will see that it is now looking for alternative sources to fulfill those contracts. The reason for the default is the sanctions. Russia doesn't have a lot of other options for delivering the supplies, and it can't collect revenue if it can't deliver. Transport doesn't just appear out of thin air, and shipping lines want to have contracts with other countries besides Russia. If they deliver Russian cargoes, they face sanctions. China has better options than India for actually getting the gas supplies it needs from Russia, but at much cheaper prices than on the world market.

 

[Jayjay]

We are continually told that the sanctions aren't working, but...

Russia Defaults On LNG Supplies To India

Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said.

India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said...

That seems to be incorrect. Other sources say that the Singapore company is a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, which is now owned by German government. Nothing to do with Russia anymore despite maybe the name still being used.

I don't think Russia gives a flying fuck about delivering LNG to Germans at this point. There are other buyers.

No, it's correct. You are right that Germany assumed control of the company in April as part of the sanctions program, but the company was still contracted to deliver Russian cargoes to India. If you read further down in the article, you will see that it is now looking for alternative sources to fulfill those contracts. The reason for the default is the sanctions. Russia doesn't have a lot of other options for delivering the supplies, and it can't collect revenue if it can't deliver. Transport doesn't just appear out of thin air, and shipping lines want to have contracts with other countries besides Russia. If they deliver Russian cargoes, they face sanctions. China has better options than India for actually getting the gas supplies it needs from Russia, but at much cheaper prices than on the world market.

I'm skeptical whether the real reason is sanctions. Russia cut down gas pipeline output to Europe by 60%, and that was (probably) just out of spite. Is it too far fetched to posit that the reason Russia isn't delivering LNG to its former singapore subsidiary for the same reason? It could then sell to India directly through an Indian company and cut the now-European middle-man.

Also, this is one less route for Germany and EU to get LNG. India just happened to be another customer.

 

[Copernicus]

...I'm skeptical whether the real reason is sanctions. Russia cut down gas pipeline output to Europe by 60%, and that was (probably) just out of spite. Is it too far fetched to posit that the reason Russia isn't delivering LNG to its former singapore subsidiary for the same reason? It could then sell to India directly through an Indian company and cut the now-European middle-man.

Also, this is one less route for Germany and EU to get LNG. India just happened to be another customer.

No, the reason is the sanctions, as stated in the article. Which Indian company did you have in mind? Do you think that Indian companies exist with the available capacity? If they did, I'm sure they'd be interested, but they still want to carry LNG to and from countries where sanctions are in effect. How do they deal with Russia and avoid sanctions? Right now, the US is becoming the major exporter of LNG to the world. Companies that transport LNG can't have it both ways. Gazprom itself admits that it will be defaulting on promised deliveries in the future. The Indian state company (GAIL) that contracts for LNG is being forced to seek non-Russian sources to make up for the shortfall.

See the Reuters article:

Gazprom Singapore misses LNG deliveries to Indian customer -sources​

Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells European buyers gas supply halt beyond its control​

I know that you've been saying that sanctions aren't working, but they were never expected to work instantly. They were always going to be slow and inexorable. Putin can cut off LNG to Europe temporarily, and he is doing all he can to retaliate. However, he still needs to be able to deliver Russian oil and LNG to markets in order to collect revenue. This is the chokepoint where sanctions are working. They can make all the contracts they want, but a means of transport is essential. Russia doesn't really have a fancy new pipeline to India like it does to China. They had one under construction, but they stopped work on it last year.

Russia abandons the construction of a natural gas pipeline to India and Japan

 

[Jayjay]

...I'm skeptical whether the real reason is sanctions. Russia cut down gas pipeline output to Europe by 60%, and that was (probably) just out of spite. Is it too far fetched to posit that the reason Russia isn't delivering LNG to its former singapore subsidiary for the same reason? It could then sell to India directly through an Indian company and cut the now-European middle-man.

Also, this is one less route for Germany and EU to get LNG. India just happened to be another customer.

No, the reason is the sanctions, as stated in the article.

It was referring to Russian sanctions, or more accurately a refusal to let the Singaporean company to get its LNG from Russia.

Which Indian company did you have in mind? Do you think that Indian companies exist with the available capacity? If they did, I'm sure they'd be interested, but they still want to carry LNG to and from countries where sanctions are in effect. How do they deal with Russia and avoid sanctions? Right now, the US is becoming the major exporter of LNG to the world. Companies that transport LNG can't have it both ways. Gazprom itself admits that it will be defaulting on promised deliveries in the future. The Indian state company (GAIL) that contracts for LNG is being forced to seek non-Russian sources to make up for the shortfall.

The difficulty of getting carriers to deal with Russia may be true, but I don't think I get that from any of the articles linked here.

Basically what's missing is just an LNG carrier ship to get the cargo from Russia, and get it to a terminal in India. I'm sure India is big enough country that there are some such ships there. Maybe Russia has some, or some other country who doesn't give a flip about western sanctions.

See the Reuters article:

Gazprom Singapore misses LNG deliveries to Indian customer -sources​

Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells European buyers gas supply halt beyond its control​

I know that you've been saying that sanctions aren't working, but they were never expected to work instantly. They were always going to be slow and inexorable. Putin can cut off LNG to Europe temporarily, and he is doing all he can to retaliate. However, he still needs to be able to deliver Russian oil and LNG to markets in order to collect revenue. This is the chokepoint where sanctions are working. They can make all the contracts they want, but a means of transport is essential. Russia doesn't really have a fancy new pipeline to India like it does to China. They had one under construction, but they stopped work on it last year.

Russia abandons the construction of a natural gas pipeline to India and Japan

Russia doesn't have the liquefication capacity to get all its natural gas out in LNG form anyway, so the Singapore/India thing is a side story.

The real beef is pipelines. Namely, that most of them go to Europe. Without Germany and others playing along, Russia would be screwed. But right now, Russia is winning against EU on energy. I think Putin is betting on sowing discord among European countries, and hoping that high energy prices will anger the people enough that they'll vote in populist candidates who have a more favorable position towards Russia (or at least not in favor of Ukraine).

 

[Copernicus]

...I'm skeptical whether the real reason is sanctions. Russia cut down gas pipeline output to Europe by 60%, and that was (probably) just out of spite. Is it too far fetched to posit that the reason Russia isn't delivering LNG to its former singapore subsidiary for the same reason? It could then sell to India directly through an Indian company and cut the now-European middle-man.

Also, this is one less route for Germany and EU to get LNG. India just happened to be another customer.

No, the reason is the sanctions, as stated in the article.

It was referring to Russian sanctions, or more accurately a refusal to let the Singaporean company to get its LNG from Russia.

It was referring to both Russian and Western sanctions, because Russia had to abandon GMTS and Singapore, which are subject to the Western sanctions. By cutting off Europe, Russia loses substantial revenue that it simply can't replace with both India and China. China wins here, because they can get all of the cheap Russian energy they want at undermarket prices. The US wins, because it is now replacing Russia as the main exporter of LNG. India wants cheap Russian energy, but Gazprom has no easy means to deliver it. Gazprom is liable for the defaulted deliveries. GMTS is being propped up for now by Germany. They can ship LNG from other sources than Russia.

Which Indian company did you have in mind? Do you think that Indian companies exist with the available capacity? If they did, I'm sure they'd be interested, but they still want to carry LNG to and from countries where sanctions are in effect. How do they deal with Russia and avoid sanctions? Right now, the US is becoming the major exporter of LNG to the world. Companies that transport LNG can't have it both ways. Gazprom itself admits that it will be defaulting on promised deliveries in the future. The Indian state company (GAIL) that contracts for LNG is being forced to seek non-Russian sources to make up for the shortfall.

The difficulty of getting carriers to deal with Russia may be true, but I don't think I get that from any of the articles linked here.

Basically what's missing is just an LNG carrier ship to get the cargo from Russia, and get it to a terminal in India. I'm sure India is big enough country that there are some such ships there. Maybe Russia has some, or some other country who doesn't give a flip about western sanctions.

The articles I cited don't go into details about how serious the transport problem is for Russia, but I've seen it discussed elsewhere. That's the whole point of how sanctions work--to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Russia to engage in international trade. You still don't seem to grasp the dilemma for Russia. Any reputable company with such ships likely already has them booked months, if not years, in advance. They don't just have them lying around empty. It isn't about the size of a country, but companies that are available anywhere that don't give a flip about being caught violating sanctions. Russian ships and their enablers have to sneak around with their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

See the Reuters article:

Gazprom Singapore misses LNG deliveries to Indian customer -sources​

Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells European buyers gas supply halt beyond its control​

I know that you've been saying that sanctions aren't working, but they were never expected to work instantly. They were always going to be slow and inexorable. Putin can cut off LNG to Europe temporarily, and he is doing all he can to retaliate. However, he still needs to be able to deliver Russian oil and LNG to markets in order to collect revenue. This is the chokepoint where sanctions are working. They can make all the contracts they want, but a means of transport is essential. Russia doesn't really have a fancy new pipeline to India like it does to China. They had one under construction, but they stopped work on it last year.

Russia abandons the construction of a natural gas pipeline to India and Japan

Russia doesn't have the liquefication capacity to get all its natural gas out in LNG form anyway, so the Singapore/India thing is a side story.

I would call the liquefaction the side story, but it is also a problem that is independent of the transport issue.

The real beef is pipelines. Namely, that most of them go to Europe. Without Germany and others playing along, Russia would be screwed. But right now, Russia is winning against EU on energy. I think Putin is betting on sowing discord among European countries, and hoping that high energy prices will anger the people enough that they'll vote in populist candidates who have a more favorable position towards Russia (or at least not in favor of Ukraine).

Yes, Putin is playing a very high stakes game, precisely because he is not winning. Europe is now keenly aware of the fact that all dependencies on Russia for a stable supply of necessary goods are subject to blackmail of this sort. Both sides are really losing at this point, and it is premature to start declaring a winner. It is clear that the EU is in a deep crisis because of the loss of Russian energy, but Russia is in a deep crisis because of the loss of revenue from its one major export. There have been mixed results of Russia's attempts to promote pro-Russia candidates in the West, because Russia is extremely unpopular. It is really hard for politicians, even ultranationalist ones, to start showing weakness in the face of threats and blackmail. That's why Sweden and Finland are finally joining NATO. Le Pen's party did better in the last election cycle, but they still lost. Macron got reelected.

 

[Copernicus]

Russia is not in a position to cut Europe off from its gas supplies, although they are still playing blackmail games to get parts and repairs for their pipeline infrastructure. So they have just resumed shipping gas through Nord Stream 1, although they still retain the option to manipulate the supply. Europe is trying to build up reserves for the winter and switch to supplies from the US and elsewhere. The problem, of course, is that the transport infrastructure for LNG is not yet sufficient to supply Europe.

Russia sanctions: Can the world cope without its oil and gas?​

 

[ZiprHead]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

 

[Copernicus]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

I'm not so sure that he should be yacking about this up in public. He is officially fighting for Ukraine, so it isn't clear whether he has any real knowledge of what the US plans to send or whether he is just talking up what Ukraine wishes for.

 

[ZiprHead]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

I'm not so sure that he should be yacking about this up in public. He is officially fighting for Ukraine, so it isn't clear whether he has any real knowledge of what the US plans to send or whether he is just talking up what Ukraine wishes for.

MN still have lots of connections in the US government so I have pretty good confidence in him.

 

[Copernicus]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

I'm not so sure that he should be yacking about this up in public. He is officially fighting for Ukraine, so it isn't clear whether he has any real knowledge of what the US plans to send or whether he is just talking up what Ukraine wishes for.

MN still have lots of connections in the US government so I have pretty good confidence in him.

I like him, but I don't see his reporting on this as a good thing for anyone except maybe Russian intelligence services.

 

[ZiprHead]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

I'm not so sure that he should be yacking about this up in public. He is officially fighting for Ukraine, so it isn't clear whether he has any real knowledge of what the US plans to send or whether he is just talking up what Ukraine wishes for.

MN still have lots of connections in the US government so I have pretty good confidence in him.

I like him, but I don't see his reporting on this as a good thing for anyone except maybe Russian intelligence services.

I don't see this as a grave security concern. I would assume MN would respect secrets and those he speaks to would do the same.

 

[Copernicus]

Malcolm Nance said this morning that the US has plans to send many more HIMARS systems to Ukraine to bring the total to fifty.

I'm not so sure that he should be yacking about this up in public. He is officially fighting for Ukraine, so it isn't clear whether he has any real knowledge of what the US plans to send or whether he is just talking up what Ukraine wishes for.

MN still have lots of connections in the US government so I have pretty good confidence in him.

I like him, but I don't see his reporting on this as a good thing for anyone except maybe Russian intelligence services.

I don't see this as a grave security concern. I would assume MN would respect secrets and those he speaks to would do the same.

News services and consultants like Nance have little to no incentive to pass up a news scoop. So I'm probably a bit more paranoid about it than you, because I've consulted with security analysts to understand how they use seemingly innocuous information in connection with other sources to discover sensitive intelligence. (I hold a minor patent on a process for automatically detecting sensitive information.) I believe that the government has asked news service to tone down such reporting, but they aren't going to do that. It's how they make their money.

 

[ZiprHead]

• Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Three bodies recovered from school hit by Russian strike in eastern Ukraine – as it happened

We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments

www.theguardian.com

 

[Harry Bosch]

• Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Three bodies recovered from school hit by Russian strike in eastern Ukraine – as it happened

We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments

www.theguardian.com

Dang. We'll see regarding the truce to resume grain exports. I would have absolutely zero trust that Russia could follow a truce or any type of agreement. If the world really wants to see grain shipments again through the straight, they really need to find a way to encourage the Russian ships to return home or sink them.