How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

...I'm skeptical whether the real reason is sanctions. Russia cut down gas pipeline output to Europe by 60%, and that was (probably) just out of spite. Is it too far fetched to posit that the reason Russia isn't delivering LNG to its former singapore subsidiary for the same reason? It could then sell to India directly through an Indian company and cut the now-European middle-man.

Also, this is one less route for Germany and EU to get LNG. India just happened to be another customer.

No, the reason is the sanctions, as stated in the article.

It was referring to Russian sanctions, or more accurately a refusal to let the Singaporean company to get its LNG from Russia.

It was referring to both Russian and Western sanctions, because Russia had to abandon GMTS and Singapore, which are subject to the Western sanctions.

I wouldn't put much weight on that article, because it already was wrong about GMTS being under Russian ownership and whoever wrote it may not have had a clue what was going on, and thus interpreted his sources incorrectly.

This Bloomberg piece refers to "Russian sanctions" explicitly:

Russian LNG Exporter Halts Some Shipments to Former Arm of State Giant Gazprom

Russia’s Yamal LNG venture, which produces liquefied natural gas in the country’s Arctic region, has started halting shipments to a former Gazprom trading unit due to sanctions imposed by Moscow.

www.bloomberg.com

And this one explains more accurately that it was Russia who cut ties with GMTS after it was seized by Germany:

Ex-Gazprom Unit Misses India Deliveries as Russia Chokes LNG

A former unit of Gazprom PJSC has missed shipments of contracted liquefied natural gas to India, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Supply has been impacted by Moscow’s actions to block the lifting and trading of cargoes from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, where GM&T has an agreement for 2.9 million tons of supply annually under a 20-year contract. Russia halted dealings with GM&T’s parent Gazprom Germania GmbH after Germany’s regulator seized control of the company in April.

My point is that the Western sanctions aren't the cause here. It's that Russia doesn't want to deliver LNG to the former Gazprom Germania's Singaporean subsidiary. But it can probably do so with other intermediaries. Anyone with an LNG tanker can go fill up at Yamal LNG, whereas pipelines only go to specific places.

By cutting off Europe, Russia loses substantial revenue that it simply can't replace with both India and China. China wins here, because they can get all of the cheap Russian energy they want at undermarket prices. The US wins, because it is now replacing Russia as the main exporter of LNG. India wants cheap Russian energy, but Gazprom has no easy means to deliver it. Gazprom is liable for the defaulted deliveries. GMTS is being propped up for now by Germany. They can ship LNG from other sources than Russia.

I they could, they wouldn't have defaulted.

LNG, like crude oil, is harder to sanction because of global markets. If Europe doesn't buy it, someone else will. But Russia is only the world's 4th largest exporter of LNG, after Australia, Qatar, and USA. By comparison, the natural gas pipelines to Europe from Russia were about four times that (but somewhat less now obviously). Russia isn't likely to be able to increase its LNG export capacity due to lack of investments and technology, but it can surely sell whatever it can produce.

Which Indian company did you have in mind? Do you think that Indian companies exist with the available capacity? If they did, I'm sure they'd be interested, but they still want to carry LNG to and from countries where sanctions are in effect. How do they deal with Russia and avoid sanctions? Right now, the US is becoming the major exporter of LNG to the world. Companies that transport LNG can't have it both ways. Gazprom itself admits that it will be defaulting on promised deliveries in the future. The Indian state company (GAIL) that contracts for LNG is being forced to seek non-Russian sources to make up for the shortfall.

The difficulty of getting carriers to deal with Russia may be true, but I don't think I get that from any of the articles linked here.

Basically what's missing is just an LNG carrier ship to get the cargo from Russia, and get it to a terminal in India. I'm sure India is big enough country that there are some such ships there. Maybe Russia has some, or some other country who doesn't give a flip about western sanctions.

The articles I cited don't go into details about how serious the transport problem is for Russia, but I've seen it discussed elsewhere. That's the whole point of how sanctions work--to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Russia to engage in international trade. You still don't seem to grasp the dilemma for Russia. Any reputable company with such ships likely already has them booked months, if not years, in advance. They don't just have them lying around empty. It isn't about the size of a country, but companies that are available anywhere that don't give a flip about being caught violating sanctions. Russian ships and their enablers have to sneak around with their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

I'm not sure sure about that:

Russian LNG Exports Still Climbing Despite Calls to Limit Transactions

Discover the latest updates on Russian LNG exports, which continue to rise despite efforts to limit transactions. Learn more about the impact of sanctions and how the EU aims to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas supplies.

www.naturalgasintel.com

Russian LNG exports increased by 19% year/year to 3.1 million tons (Mt) last month, according to shipbroker Banchero Costa. Shipments from the country were also 25% higher than they were in March 2020.

Russia, the world’s fourth largest LNG exporter, has faced a series of financial and economic sanctions imposed by Western governments for its invasion of Ukraine in February. While the measures have exempted natural gas exports, some companies have shunned Russian energy products.

The European Union is also aiming to gain independence from Russian natural gas supplies before 2030, which could ultimately dent the country’s LNG export volumes before the end of the year. The EU relies on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas imports.

Last month, the bloc imported 1.7 Mt of LNG from Russia, or 26% more than it did during the same period last year, Banchero Costa said. Imports of the super-chilled fuel were also up by 22% from March 2020. The EU was the largest importer of Russian LNG last year, followed by Asia.

Things could've change in the past few months of course but that's the latest I found.

The real beef is pipelines. Namely, that most of them go to Europe. Without Germany and others playing along, Russia would be screwed. But right now, Russia is winning against EU on energy. I think Putin is betting on sowing discord among European countries, and hoping that high energy prices will anger the people enough that they'll vote in populist candidates who have a more favorable position towards Russia (or at least not in favor of Ukraine).

Yes, Putin is playing a very high stakes game, precisely because he is not winning. Europe is now keenly aware of the fact that all dependencies on Russia for a stable supply of necessary goods are subject to blackmail of this sort. Both sides are really losing at this point, and it is premature to start declaring a winner. It is clear that the EU is in a deep crisis because of the loss of Russian energy, but Russia is in a deep crisis because of the loss of revenue from its one major export. There have been mixed results of Russia's attempts to promote pro-Russia candidates in the West, because Russia is extremely unpopular. It is really hard for politicians, even ultranationalist ones, to start showing weakness in the face of threats and blackmail. That's why Sweden and Finland are finally joining NATO. Le Pen's party did better in the last election cycle, but they still lost. Macron got reelected.

But Macron didn't get a majority in the parliament. Italy's government resigned and the country will have snap elections this fall. Hungary has declared a national emergency and has faced demonstrations over high prices. The midterms in US are likely to see Republicans gain majority in both houses. I see a lot of opportunities for Putin to stir the pot in the west in his favor, though openly pro-Russian candidates are likely out of the question.

 

[ZiprHead]

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered Southern Group Commander General of the Army Sergey Surovikin and C

www.understandingwar.org

Looking at the NASA FIRMS maps, it appears Ukraine's new artillery is having quite an effect on Russia's ability to drop shells on Ukraine.

 

[ZiprHead]

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

Ukraine's military reported more heavy artillery and rocket fire by Russian forces in Kharkiv and Donetsk, accompanied by airstrikes. But it said the Russians failed to gain ground in either region, nor in the south. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

The US assesses Ukraine “has taken out more than a hundred high-value targets,” according to a senior US defense official. Most of the targets have been in the east in recent weeks as the Ukrainians have been able to improve their precision targeting with the use of US provided artillery.

“These strikes are steadily degrading the Russian ability to supply their troops, command and control of their forces, and carry out their illegal war of aggression,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters on Wednesday.

The Ukrainians are “attacking Russian command posts, ammunition depots, air-defense sites, radar and communications nodes, and long-range artillery positions,” the official said. This is contributing to the broader assessment that Ukraine has been able to make progress against Russian forces. However, the US also assesses that Russia still is launching “tens of thousands” of artillery rounds per day.

“They can’t keep it up forever,” the Russians “have expended a lot of smarter munitions …their capabilities are getting dumber,” the official noted, adding that Russia has not taken out a single HIMARS system yet, but it is likely they will “get lucky” and do so at some point.

The fight for Donetsk is “likely last through the summer” with Russia achieving slow gains at a high cost, the official said.

Russian fatalities include “thousands” of lieutenants and captains, “hundreds” of colonels, and “many” generals, the official said. “The chain of command is still struggling.”

The US estimates Russia has committed nearly 85% of its army to the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Copernicus]

...

I wouldn't put much weight on that article, because it already was wrong about GMTS being under Russian ownership and whoever wrote it may not have had a clue what was going on, and thus interpreted his sources incorrectly.

This Bloomberg piece refers to "Russian sanctions" explicitly:

Russian LNG Exporter Halts Some Shipments to Former Arm of State Giant Gazprom

Russia’s Yamal LNG venture, which produces liquefied natural gas in the country’s Arctic region, has started halting shipments to a former Gazprom trading unit due to sanctions imposed by Moscow.

www.bloomberg.com

And this one explains more accurately that it was Russia who cut ties with GMTS after it was seized by Germany:

Ex-Gazprom Unit Misses India Deliveries as Russia Chokes LNG

A former unit of Gazprom PJSC has missed shipments of contracted liquefied natural gas to India, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Jayjay, the original Indian article didn't get it wrong. They said that GMTS was reorganized and was now under Gazprom Germania, not that it is still under Russian ownership. AFAICT, your Bloomberg articles don't differ much from the other articles except in unimportant details. The Russian sanctions are tit-for-tat attempt at retaliation, but Russia is still in default on those LNG deliveries and Gazprom Russia is still liable for them, regardless of the current status of the "Gazprom" companies licensed to operate in the West as delivery agents. Russia found itself no longer able to use those companies as vehicles to bring in revenue, and that is the bottom line here. It doesn't have a viable alternative yet, and it isn't going to be easy for it to replace them.

My point is that the Western sanctions aren't the cause here. It's that Russia doesn't want to deliver LNG to the former Gazprom Germania's Singaporean subsidiary. But it can probably do so with other intermediaries. Anyone with an LNG tanker can go fill up at Yamal LNG, whereas pipelines only go to specific places.

Yes, I agree that that is the point you have been making all along. It is also the point that I have been explicitly arguing against all along. I agree with you than anyone with an LNG tanker can go fill up Yamal LNG in principle and that pipelines go to specific places. The fact is that Western sanctions make the availability of such LNG tankers extremely limited and risky. That's why you keep using the word "probably". I really think you ought to be using the adverb "possibly" and considering the possibility that Russian "sanctions" are really just cover for the abandonment of options that are no longer open to them.

By cutting off Europe, Russia loses substantial revenue that it simply can't replace with both India and China. China wins here, because they can get all of the cheap Russian energy they want at undermarket prices. The US wins, because it is now replacing Russia as the main exporter of LNG. India wants cheap Russian energy, but Gazprom has no easy means to deliver it. Gazprom is liable for the defaulted deliveries. GMTS is being propped up for now by Germany. They can ship LNG from other sources than Russia.

I they could, they wouldn't have defaulted.

LNG, like crude oil, is harder to sanction because of global markets. If Europe doesn't buy it, someone else will. But Russia is only the world's 4th largest exporter of LNG, after Australia, Qatar, and USA. By comparison, the natural gas pipelines to Europe from Russia were about four times that (but somewhat less now obviously). Russia isn't likely to be able to increase its LNG export capacity due to lack of investments and technology, but it can surely sell whatever it can produce.

Not if it lacks a means of delivery. You keep overlooking that. You seem to think that all of those LNG tankers will just suddenly show up and resume business as usual, but there is the little problem of being a reputable ship-owning business and being able to avoid sanctions for using their ships to transport Russian LNG without turning off transponders and sneaking around like a bunch of pirates. The supply of LNG tankers is severely limited by Western sanctions. Do I really need to keep repeating that that is the real issue here? I'm not arguing that those companies wouldn't like to ship Russian oil and LNG. Of course they would. Shipping is their business. But they also have to deal with Western banks and Western ports of call. Where is India's fleet of LNG tankers?

...

The articles I cited don't go into details about how serious the transport problem is for Russia, but I've seen it discussed elsewhere. That's the whole point of how sanctions work--to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Russia to engage in international trade. You still don't seem to grasp the dilemma for Russia. Any reputable company with such ships likely already has them booked months, if not years, in advance. They don't just have them lying around empty. It isn't about the size of a country, but companies that are available anywhere that don't give a flip about being caught violating sanctions. Russian ships and their enablers have to sneak around with their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

I'm not sure sure about that:

Russian LNG Exports Still Climbing Despite Calls to Limit Transactions

Discover the latest updates on Russian LNG exports, which continue to rise despite efforts to limit transactions. Learn more about the impact of sanctions and how the EU aims to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas supplies.

www.naturalgasintel.com

...
Things could've change in the past few months of course but that's the latest I found.

Western countries are still dependent on Russian LNG supplies, which is why LNG was exempted under past waves of sanctions. It is just recently that Western sanctions have begun to affect it. The Russian default on its deliveries to India, for example. Your article from April is based on information from Rancher Costa, a company that specializes in shipping. One would expect that LNG shipping from Russia would increase as a response to the huge drop in supplies of LNG going to Europe through pipelines. So I think it is premature to depend too much on Ranchero Costa's optimistic assessment of future prospects for growth in its shipping business.

For example, see this Reuters article from June--two months later than yours.

UPDATE 1-Russia to delay boosting annual LNG output to 140 mln tonnes

...There have been mixed results of Russia's attempts to promote pro-Russia candidates in the West, because Russia is extremely unpopular. It is really hard for politicians, even ultranationalist ones, to start showing weakness in the face of threats and blackmail. That's why Sweden and Finland are finally joining NATO. Le Pen's party did better in the last election cycle, but they still lost. Macron got reelected.

But Macron didn't get a majority in the parliament. Italy's government resigned and the country will have snap elections this fall. Hungary has declared a national emergency and has faced demonstrations over high prices. The midterms in US are likely to see Republicans gain majority in both houses. I see a lot of opportunities for Putin to stir the pot in the west in his favor, though openly pro-Russian candidates are likely out of the question.

I did say that Russia was having "mixed results". I think that there has been a lot of democracy backsliding going on in the world that has nothing to do with Russia and a lot to do with other major events. Russia is able to take advantage of that. However, I do think that the world outrage over Putin's idiotically unnecessary invasion of its neighbor is pretty much baked into international politics at this point. Macron's loss of legislative majority only means that he now has to compromise more with parties that still oppose Russian expansionism in Europe. Hungary, like Turkey, is playing a game of double dealing both sides. Neither country shows signs of wanting to leave NATO, and Hungary is remaining in the EU. The collapse of Democratic control of Congress will hinder the administration's foreign policy options in the US, but Biden isn't going to back off of sanctions or support for Ukraine because of it. Republicans are traditionally more hawkish than Democrats when it comes to military expenditures.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine's frontline farmers toil on amid explosions

A boom like distant thunder, rolled over the wheat fields due west of Slovyansk - a Ukrainian city now being targeted daily by Russian rockets and artillery.


© BBCVladimir Bukhantsev carries on farming as shells explode on the nearby frontline
Perched on his seat in a combine harvester, Vladimir Bukhantsev, 47, could see clouds of smoke from missiles hitting an industrial area, then another, thinner plume, from Russian positions on the frontline, perhaps 15km (nine miles) due north.

"It's noisy here. But life goes on. We had a spot of rain earlier, so we've been waiting for the wheat to dry. My son is serving in the army near here. I'm hoping our lads are going to start counter-attacking soon and push the Russians back," he said, on a brief break from work.


© BBCTwo Ukrainian Sukhoi fighters roared over the farm towards Russian positions
Suddenly there was a shrieking roar as two Ukrainian fighter jets flew low, perhaps 25m (80ft) above the field, directly overhead.

Within seconds the jets were over Russian positions, and Bukhantsev watched the bright tail of a Russian rocket soaring up towards one aircraft, narrowly missing it. Both Sukhoi jets then released decoy flares, turned sharply and headed back south, again passing directly overhead with another deafening roar.

"They fly like that almost every day. It gets lively here. The pilots do their job. We do ours. Everyone is busy. But their work is harder," he said.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia is not in a position to cut Europe off from its gas supplies, although they are still playing blackmail games to get parts and repairs for their pipeline infrastructure. So they have just resumed shipping gas through Nord Stream 1, although they still retain the option to manipulate the supply. Europe is trying to build up reserves for the winter and switch to supplies from the US and elsewhere. The problem, of course, is that the transport infrastructure for LNG is not yet sufficient to supply Europe.

Russia sanctions: Can the world cope without its oil and gas?​

Not just the option, because Russia is manipulating the supply: even if the pipe went back online as expected, it's only up to 40% full capacity, same that it was before the "maintenance break". Germany is already forced to tap into its winter reserves, rather than building them up, which is exactly what Russia wants.

 

[Elixir]

How well guarded are those pipelines?
(Asking for a friend)

 

[bilby]

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

Ukraine's military reported more heavy artillery and rocket fire by Russian forces in Kharkiv and Donetsk, accompanied by airstrikes. But it said the Russians failed to gain ground in either region, nor in the south. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

The US estimates Russia has committed nearly 85% of its army to the invasion of Ukraine.

Germany is already forced to tap into its winter reserves, rather than building them up, which is exactly what Russia wants.

Sounds to me like the obvious solution here is for Germany to invade Russia, while Russia only has 15% of her army available, and just take all the gas they need.

If they start today, they could be within sight of Moscow and Leningrad St Petersburg by the time of the first snowfall.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Harry Bosch]

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

Ukraine's military reported more heavy artillery and rocket fire by Russian forces in Kharkiv and Donetsk, accompanied by airstrikes. But it said the Russians failed to gain ground in either region, nor in the south. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

The US estimates Russia has committed nearly 85% of its army to the invasion of Ukraine.

Germany is already forced to tap into its winter reserves, rather than building them up, which is exactly what Russia wants.

Sounds to me like the obvious solution here is for Germany to invade Russia, while Russia only has 15% of her army available, and just take all the gas they need.

If they start today, they could be within sight of Moscow and Leningrad St Petersburg by the time of the first snowfall.

What could possibly go wrong?

Why are you and Elixir being so hostile to Russia? What has Russia ever done to get such mean behavior towards them?

 

[Elixir]

What has Russia ever done to get such mean behavior towards them?

My dad was pals with a guy named Isaac Don Levine … somewhere along the line they (and Stalin) must have poisoned my opinion.

 

[Jayjay]

...

I wouldn't put much weight on that article, because it already was wrong about GMTS being under Russian ownership and whoever wrote it may not have had a clue what was going on, and thus interpreted his sources incorrectly.

This Bloomberg piece refers to "Russian sanctions" explicitly:

Russian LNG Exporter Halts Some Shipments to Former Arm of State Giant Gazprom

Russia’s Yamal LNG venture, which produces liquefied natural gas in the country’s Arctic region, has started halting shipments to a former Gazprom trading unit due to sanctions imposed by Moscow.

www.bloomberg.com

And this one explains more accurately that it was Russia who cut ties with GMTS after it was seized by Germany:

Ex-Gazprom Unit Misses India Deliveries as Russia Chokes LNG

A former unit of Gazprom PJSC has missed shipments of contracted liquefied natural gas to India, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Jayjay, the original Indian article didn't get it wrong. They said that GMTS was reorganized and was now under Gazprom Germania, not that it is still under Russian ownership.

So it does; I didn't notice it because I didn't realize the article continued after the blurb in the middle. But it is a bit misleading in its title and opening paragraph that say Russia is defaulting on its deliveries to India, when it's really GMTS.

AFAICT, your Bloomberg articles don't differ much from the other articles except in unimportant details. The Russian sanctions are tit-for-tat attempt at retaliation, but Russia is still in default on those LNG deliveries and Gazprom Russia is still liable for them, regardless of the current status of the "Gazprom" companies licensed to operate in the West as delivery agents. Russia found itself no longer able to use those companies as vehicles to bring in revenue, and that is the bottom line here. It doesn't have a viable alternative yet, and it isn't going to be easy for it to replace them.

The delivery chain is from Yamal LNG to GMTS to India and other customers. When Yamal LNG said that they won't deliver to GMTS when Germany took it over, that's one thing. And GMTS defaulting cargos to India is another. If GMTS could fulfill its contractual obligations from other sources, it would probably do that. Also any legal proceedings will go the opposite way: India can sue GMTS in Indian or Singaporean or German, and GMTS could try to sue Russia, but the chances of the latter succeeding is nil.

I still think it's fair to say that this incident is not proof of sanctions on Russia working, because it's still Russia who's telling Germany to fuck off and that has put Germany at odds with India. If Indian GAIL can find some other ships to pick up LNG from Yamal, I don't think Russia will have any problem with it.

My point is that the Western sanctions aren't the cause here. It's that Russia doesn't want to deliver LNG to the former Gazprom Germania's Singaporean subsidiary. But it can probably do so with other intermediaries. Anyone with an LNG tanker can go fill up at Yamal LNG, whereas pipelines only go to specific places.

Yes, I agree that that is the point you have been making all along. It is also the point that I have been explicitly arguing against all along. I agree with you than anyone with an LNG tanker can go fill up Yamal LNG in principle and that pipelines go to specific places. The fact is that Western sanctions make the availability of such LNG tankers extremely limited and risky. That's why you keep using the word "probably". I really think you ought to be using the adverb "possibly" and considering the possibility that Russian "sanctions" are really just cover for the abandonment of options that are no longer open to them.

The reduction of pipeline output in Europe seems to indicate otherwise. Russia is willing to reduce deliveries to Europe just to spite them, even if it means reducing also their own income a bit. The price hikes have more than made up for the losses so far.

By cutting off Europe, Russia loses substantial revenue that it simply can't replace with both India and China. China wins here, because they can get all of the cheap Russian energy they want at undermarket prices. The US wins, because it is now replacing Russia as the main exporter of LNG. India wants cheap Russian energy, but Gazprom has no easy means to deliver it. Gazprom is liable for the defaulted deliveries. GMTS is being propped up for now by Germany. They can ship LNG from other sources than Russia.

I they could, they wouldn't have defaulted.

LNG, like crude oil, is harder to sanction because of global markets. If Europe doesn't buy it, someone else will. But Russia is only the world's 4th largest exporter of LNG, after Australia, Qatar, and USA. By comparison, the natural gas pipelines to Europe from Russia were about four times that (but somewhat less now obviously). Russia isn't likely to be able to increase its LNG export capacity due to lack of investments and technology, but it can surely sell whatever it can produce.

Not if it lacks a means of delivery. You keep overlooking that. You seem to think that all of those LNG tankers will just suddenly show up and resume business as usual, but there is the little problem of being a reputable ship-owning business and being able to avoid sanctions for using their ships to transport Russian LNG without turning off transponders and sneaking around like a bunch of pirates. The supply of LNG tankers is severely limited by Western sanctions. Do I really need to keep repeating that that is the real issue here? I'm not arguing that those companies wouldn't like to ship Russian oil and LNG. Of course they would. Shipping is their business. But they also have to deal with Western banks and Western ports of call. Where is India's fleet of LNG tankers?

Well, I could be wrong.

...

The articles I cited don't go into details about how serious the transport problem is for Russia, but I've seen it discussed elsewhere. That's the whole point of how sanctions work--to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Russia to engage in international trade. You still don't seem to grasp the dilemma for Russia. Any reputable company with such ships likely already has them booked months, if not years, in advance. They don't just have them lying around empty. It isn't about the size of a country, but companies that are available anywhere that don't give a flip about being caught violating sanctions. Russian ships and their enablers have to sneak around with their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

I'm not sure sure about that:

Russian LNG Exports Still Climbing Despite Calls to Limit Transactions

Discover the latest updates on Russian LNG exports, which continue to rise despite efforts to limit transactions. Learn more about the impact of sanctions and how the EU aims to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas supplies.

www.naturalgasintel.com

...
Things could've change in the past few months of course but that's the latest I found.

Western countries are still dependent on Russian LNG supplies, which is why LNG was exempted under past waves of sanctions. It is just recently that Western sanctions have begun to affect it. The Russian default on its deliveries to India, for example. Your article from April is based on information from Rancher Costa, a company that specializes in shipping. One would expect that LNG shipping from Russia would increase as a response to the huge drop in supplies of LNG going to Europe through pipelines. So I think it is premature to depend too much on Ranchero Costa's optimistic assessment of future prospects for growth in its shipping business.

For example, see this Reuters article from June--two months later than yours.

UPDATE 1-Russia to delay boosting annual LNG output to 140 mln tonnes

That was Russia's future expansion plan. That's down the toilet now. But there doesn't seem to be any reason why Russia couldn't continue to sell whatever it can produce now.

 

[Jayjay]

How well guarded are those pipelines?
(Asking for a friend)

If your friend has an attack submarine in the Baltic Sea that he can use, a few torpedoes should do it.

 

[Jayjay]

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

Ukraine's military reported more heavy artillery and rocket fire by Russian forces in Kharkiv and Donetsk, accompanied by airstrikes. But it said the Russians failed to gain ground in either region, nor in the south. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

The US assesses Ukraine “has taken out more than a hundred high-value targets,” according to a senior US defense official. Most of the targets have been in the east in recent weeks as the Ukrainians have been able to improve their precision targeting with the use of US provided artillery.

“These strikes are steadily degrading the Russian ability to supply their troops, command and control of their forces, and carry out their illegal war of aggression,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters on Wednesday.

The Ukrainians are “attacking Russian command posts, ammunition depots, air-defense sites, radar and communications nodes, and long-range artillery positions,” the official said. This is contributing to the broader assessment that Ukraine has been able to make progress against Russian forces. However, the US also assesses that Russia still is launching “tens of thousands” of artillery rounds per day.

“They can’t keep it up forever,” the Russians “have expended a lot of smarter munitions …their capabilities are getting dumber,” the official noted, adding that Russia has not taken out a single HIMARS system yet, but it is likely they will “get lucky” and do so at some point.

The fight for Donetsk is “likely last through the summer” with Russia achieving slow gains at a high cost, the official said.

Russian fatalities include “thousands” of lieutenants and captains, “hundreds” of colonels, and “many” generals, the official said. “The chain of command is still struggling.”

The US estimates Russia has committed nearly 85% of its army to the invasion of Ukraine.

I think the battle in Donetsk is not the strategically most important part.

Kherson city is more critical. If Ukraine can take it back, it would be a major victory and possible starting point for peace negotiations. If Russia can hold its ground and keep the city, it will have a bridgehead on eastern bank of Dnieper, and will probably try to take Odessa and the remaining Black Sea coast line at some point.

 

[Copernicus]

...
Jayjay, the original Indian article didn't get it wrong. They said that GMTS was reorganized and was now under Gazprom Germania, not that it is still under Russian ownership.

So it does; I didn't notice it because I didn't realize the article continued after the blurb in the middle. But it is a bit misleading in its title and opening paragraph that say Russia is defaulting on its deliveries to India, when it's really GMTS.

Yep. Those inline adds are increasingly a problem these days. Happens to me all the time, too. I still don't think that the title was that misleading, because the real story here is that Russia made a deal with India to deliver the LNG and defaulted on that deal. All of the middleman details are beside the point.

...
I still think it's fair to say that this incident is not proof of sanctions on Russia working, because it's still Russia who's telling Germany to fuck off and that has put Germany at odds with India. If Indian GAIL can find some other ships to pick up LNG from Yamal, I don't think Russia will have any problem with it.

Until they do, it's fair to say that the sanctions on Russia are working. The Russian sanctions against other nations are nothing more than attempts to blackmail countries into acquiescing or aiding them in their unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, and everyone knows that. Russia and Yamal can spin this all they like, but the sanctions are seriously hurting them. You know that they are going to put up a brave front, but they are already cutting back on their projection of how much LNG they can export this year.

...
The reduction of pipeline output in Europe seems to indicate otherwise. Russia is willing to reduce deliveries to Europe just to spite them, even if it means reducing also their own income a bit. The price hikes have more than made up for the losses so far.

I think that it's very difficult to make that determination in the midst of a propaganda war, where each side seeks to portray itself as winning the struggle. Both sides exaggerate and lie, but it's clear that Russia does that much more than countries in which the press is free to criticize such claims by their own governments. Russia still depends on Europe to be its main market for its only real export products. China is helping, but they are snapping up oil and gas at bargain rates. India is turning out to be more problematic as a substitute for European customers. Russia can sell a lot of energy clandestinely, but it can't really do so in the quantities it needs to make up for the loss of revenue from countries that comply with the sanctions, AFAICT.

...
Western countries are still dependent on Russian LNG supplies, which is why LNG was exempted under past waves of sanctions. It is just recently that Western sanctions have begun to affect it. The Russian default on its deliveries to India, for example. Your article from April is based on information from Rancher Costa, a company that specializes in shipping. One would expect that LNG shipping from Russia would increase as a response to the huge drop in supplies of LNG going to Europe through pipelines. So I think it is premature to depend too much on Ranchero Costa's optimistic assessment of future prospects for growth in its shipping business.

For example, see this Reuters article from June--two months later than yours.

UPDATE 1-Russia to delay boosting annual LNG output to 140 mln tonnes

That was Russia's future expansion plan. That's down the toilet now. But there doesn't seem to be any reason why Russia couldn't continue to sell whatever it can produce now.

Well, that's the question, isn't it?

 

[Harry Bosch]

• Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Three bodies recovered from school hit by Russian strike in eastern Ukraine – as it happened

We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments

www.theguardian.com

I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:

MSN

Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.

 

[Jayjay]

• Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Three bodies recovered from school hit by Russian strike in eastern Ukraine – as it happened

We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments

www.theguardian.com

I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:

MSN

Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.

Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

 

[ZiprHead]

More than 1,000 Russian troops encircled by Ukrainian Forces in Kherson region

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of...

uawire.org

 

[TV and credit cards]

More than 1,000 Russian troops encircled by Ukrainian Forces in Kherson region

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of...

uawire.org

Wow. 2,000. Do the Ukrainians even have the manpower to see to what could be a large number of prisoners? Is it practice to release Russian soldiers on their honor that they will not return to the fight?

 

[Jayjay]

More than 1,000 Russian troops encircled by Ukrainian Forces in Kherson region

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of...

uawire.org

I think this is bullshit.

The fighting is still going on and Ukraine doesn't really control the surrounding territory. But it would be nice if it turns out to be true.

 

[Copernicus]

• Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Three bodies recovered from school hit by Russian strike in eastern Ukraine – as it happened

We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments

www.theguardian.com

I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:

MSN

Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.

Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

The missiles were fired from a ship. I wonder if they have a connection to that huge tanker stuffed full of stolen Ukrainian grain that has been detained by Turkey. The Russian military has been stealing grain from Ukraine systematically and selling it. Whoever is making a fortune from that is not likely to be happy with all those other legal ships loaded with grain going through the Bosporus, especially when they can't get their own ship freed up to sell its illegal cargo on the black market.

Turkey Holding Russian-Flagged Ship As Grain Cargo Investigated​