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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

  • Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.
I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:


Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.
Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

The missiles were fired from a ship. I wonder if they have a connection to that huge tanker stuffed full of stolen Ukrainian grain that has been detained by Turkey. The Russian military has been stealing grain from Ukraine systematically and selling it. Whoever is making a fortune from that is not likely to be happy with all those other legal ships loaded with grain going through the Bosporus, especially when they can't get their own ship freed up to sell its illegal cargo on the black market.

Turkey Holding Russian-Flagged Ship As Grain Cargo Investigated

That particular ship was released weeks ago:

 
  • Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.
I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:


Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.
Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

The missiles were fired from a ship. I wonder if they have a connection to that huge tanker stuffed full of stolen Ukrainian grain that has been detained by Turkey. The Russian military has been stealing grain from Ukraine systematically and selling it. Whoever is making a fortune from that is not likely to be happy with all those other legal ships loaded with grain going through the Bosporus, especially when they can't get their own ship freed up to sell its illegal cargo on the black market.

Turkey Holding Russian-Flagged Ship As Grain Cargo Investigated

That particular ship was released weeks ago:


I thought it had been detained again for investigation at the port of Izmir, but I now see that that is where the stolen grain was offloaded and carried away by trucks. So Turkey actually took advantage of the situation to grab the grain for its own purposes. There were also two other ships that the Ukrainians had asked the Turks to investigate, but it seems that Turkey's willingness to double-deal--i.e. supply drones to the Ukrainians and help Russians steal their grain--is why both sides brokered the new grain deal in Turkey. Both Ukraine and Russia get things from Turkey, which is taking heavy advantage to the war. This article is from two days ago:

Satellite imagery, ship data indicates path of Russian vessel Kyiv says shipped “looted” grain


After having lied that it had attacked the port of Odesa hours after the signing of the grain deal in Turkey, Russia has now finally admitted that it had attacked Odesa with cruise missiles, claiming they only targeted military targets. Specifically, they claimed to have destroyed a warehouse containing Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the US and a ship there. The video in the link below shows a small explosion, so it is unlikely that they stored a stockpile of missiles. The ship visible in that location appears not to have been hit. The video also shows grain silos very close to the missile strike:

Russia Admits Ukraine Port Strike in U-Turn, Claims 'Military Targets' Hit

 
  • Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.
I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:


Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.
Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

The missiles were fired from a ship. I wonder if they have a connection to that huge tanker stuffed full of stolen Ukrainian grain that has been detained by Turkey. The Russian military has been stealing grain from Ukraine systematically and selling it. Whoever is making a fortune from that is not likely to be happy with all those other legal ships loaded with grain going through the Bosporus, especially when they can't get their own ship freed up to sell its illegal cargo on the black market.

Turkey Holding Russian-Flagged Ship As Grain Cargo Investigated

That particular ship was released weeks ago:


I thought it had been detained again for investigation at the port of Izmir, but I now see that that is where the stolen grain was offloaded and carried away by trucks. So Turkey actually took advantage of the situation to grab the grain for its own purposes. There were also two other ships that the Ukrainians had asked the Turks to investigate, but it seems that Turkey's willingness to double-deal--i.e. supply drones to the Ukrainians and help Russians steal their grain--is why both sides brokered the new grain deal in Turkey. Both Ukraine and Russia get things from Turkey, which is taking heavy advantage to the war. This article is from two days ago:

Satellite imagery, ship data indicates path of Russian vessel Kyiv says shipped “looted” grain


After having lied that it had attacked the port of Odesa hours after the signing of the grain deal in Turkey, Russia has now finally admitted that it had attacked Odesa with cruise missiles, claiming they only targeted military targets. Specifically, they claimed to have destroyed a warehouse containing Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the US and a ship there. The video in the link below shows a small explosion, so it is unlikely that they stored a stockpile of missiles. The ship visible in that location appears not to have been hit. The video also shows grain silos very close to the missile strike:

Russia Admits Ukraine Port Strike in U-Turn, Claims 'Military Targets' Hit

Yea, it's just laughable and sad that so many think that Russia sincerely wants a peace deal with Ukraine! They are just yanking chains. They just want to stop or delay western aid in order to help them fulfill their true goal if destroying and taking over Ukraine.
 
Stages of Russian grief:

1) We will never do it.
2) We didn't do it.
3) You did it to yourself to make us look bad!
4) Ok we did it but it was a military target (insert fake video).
5) NATO and USA did it also in Iraq and Afghanistan, why aren't you talking about them?
6) Shut up or we'll do something worse.
7) It never happened.
 
  • Russia is “about to run out of steam” and take an operational pause, offering Ukraine the chance to strike back, the head of UK intelligence said. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks,” said Richard Moore, the MI6 chief. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Moore also said half of all the Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover around Europe, totalling about 400, had been expelled since the start of the war in Ukraine.
I'm sorry to say but the Russians violated the terms of the truce within 24 hours:


Russia is a grifter nation that is unable to accept any truce or negotiation.
Russia got what it wanted: its own grain and fertilizer exports to be freed up. That's not going to be rolled back by a few missile strikes.

The strikes do effectively block the prospect of Ukrainian grain exports. It also raises the price of wheat back up a little bit which benefits Russia economically.

The missiles were fired from a ship. I wonder if they have a connection to that huge tanker stuffed full of stolen Ukrainian grain that has been detained by Turkey. The Russian military has been stealing grain from Ukraine systematically and selling it. Whoever is making a fortune from that is not likely to be happy with all those other legal ships loaded with grain going through the Bosporus, especially when they can't get their own ship freed up to sell its illegal cargo on the black market.

Turkey Holding Russian-Flagged Ship As Grain Cargo Investigated

That particular ship was released weeks ago:


I thought it had been detained again for investigation at the port of Izmir, but I now see that that is where the stolen grain was offloaded and carried away by trucks. So Turkey actually took advantage of the situation to grab the grain for its own purposes. There were also two other ships that the Ukrainians had asked the Turks to investigate, but it seems that Turkey's willingness to double-deal--i.e. supply drones to the Ukrainians and help Russians steal their grain--is why both sides brokered the new grain deal in Turkey. Both Ukraine and Russia get things from Turkey, which is taking heavy advantage to the war. This article is from two days ago:

Satellite imagery, ship data indicates path of Russian vessel Kyiv says shipped “looted” grain


After having lied that it had attacked the port of Odesa hours after the signing of the grain deal in Turkey, Russia has now finally admitted that it had attacked Odesa with cruise missiles, claiming they only targeted military targets. Specifically, they claimed to have destroyed a warehouse containing Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the US and a ship there. The video in the link below shows a small explosion, so it is unlikely that they stored a stockpile of missiles. The ship visible in that location appears not to have been hit. The video also shows grain silos very close to the missile strike:

Russia Admits Ukraine Port Strike in U-Turn, Claims 'Military Targets' Hit

Yea, it's just laughable and sad that so many think that Russia sincerely wants a peace deal with Ukraine! They are just yanking chains. They just want to stop or delay western aid in order to help them fulfill their true goal if destroying and taking over Ukraine.
I don't think they are stopping or delaying anything. I mean, how gullible does a person have to be to trust anything coming out of Moscow?
In case you missed it in Reuters: U.S. discussing America-made fighter jets for Ukraine.
Maybe the Ukrainians have to promise not to enter Russian airspace. ;)
 

South direction​

Intensive shelling from the enemy, aviation strikes. From Ukrainian side – deep artillery strikes along the whole line of the Russian forces on the right bank of Dnieper, including aviation strikes.

In Kherson, a Russian S-300 destroyed, presumably the one that was striking Mykolaiv. Likewise, strikes on the enemy at the Russian base in Khrustalnoye in Luhansk Oblast, resulting in significant casualties.

Odesa (and Kharkiv) – calm nights in terms of enemy shelling, which is a very rare occasion. At the same time, Chuguev in Kharkiv Oblast suffered from serious shelling.

Also strikes at Dnipro Oblast, including Kryvyi Rih region and Dnipro region, and Nikopol, which was attacked by 40 missiles not far from Zaporizhye nuclear power plant.

Also strikes by Russian missiles on Kramatorsk and Mykolaiv.


South direction – all the Russian logistical supplies lines are under Ukrainian fire control in the right bank of Dnipro from Kryvyi Rih to Kherson and the Black Sea. Ukraine is taking the war into the 4th generation war mode, aiming to make it an asymmetrical war, which at the moment means distance missile attacks with no offensive operations. Russia is not being attacked directly. Not only weapon caches are being destroyed but also commanding points, communication lines and air defence. This will then lead to attacks on Russian forces.

Given that all three bridges are disabled in Kakhovka, Daryev over Ingulets, and Antonovsky. This practically divided Russian forces. The objective is to force Russians to do another goodwill gesture but allow the troops to withdraw – equipment is unlikely to be withdrawn given the weakness of the bridges.
 
From Reuters:
Ukraine says it has destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using HIMARS

KYIV, July 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Monday its forces had used U.S-supplied HIMARS rocket systems to destroy 50 Russian ammunition depots since receiving the weapons last month.

In comments on national television, Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov underlined the growing impact that the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) are having as Ukraine tries to repel Russia's invasion.

"This cuts their (Russian) logistical chains and takes away their ability to conduct active fighting and cover our armed forces with heavy shelling," Reznikov said. . . .
And in other news:
Reznikov also said Ukraine had received three Gepard anti-aircraft armoured fighting vehicles, the first of 15 expected, and that Kyiv was expecting to take delivery of several dozen Leopard tanks.
Give 'em hell, boys.
 
A lot hinges on Ukraine being able to retake Kherson city and the west bank of Dnieper. In theory, the chances are good if Ukraine can cut off the bridges. But Russia knows this so it's not going to be easy.
 
Trouble for Russia from an unusual sort of source:
About protests of rising gas prices a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
A year later, Tokayev asked for Moscow’s help during the largest protests in Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet history.

Thousands of young Kazakhs rallied in several cities toppling statues of Nazarbayev, clashing with police and storming government buildings.

Tokayev asked the forces of the Russian-led military alliance of the former Soviet states to restore order. Known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the bloc includes Russia and five ex-Soviet nations.

The CSTO troops did fly in and helped restore law and order – and the move was widely seen as a symbol of Moscow’s restored might in the former USSR.

As a result, Tokayev dramatically undermined the Nazarbayev clan’s clout and became a full-fledged, independent leader – all thanks to Putin.

And some in Kazakhstan see his remarks about the Ukrainian separatists as part of a well-staged political spectacle aimed at distracting the West’s attention.
Kazakhstan is the largest of the ex-Soviet Central Asian "stans", as they are sometimes called, and it is the only one with a land border with Russia. Some other ones have a border with Russia in the middle of the Caspian Sea, however.
 
Trouble for Russia from an unusual sort of source:
About protests of rising gas prices a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
A year later, Tokayev asked for Moscow’s help during the largest protests in Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet history.

Thousands of young Kazakhs rallied in several cities toppling statues of Nazarbayev, clashing with police and storming government buildings.

Tokayev asked the forces of the Russian-led military alliance of the former Soviet states to restore order. Known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the bloc includes Russia and five ex-Soviet nations.

The CSTO troops did fly in and helped restore law and order – and the move was widely seen as a symbol of Moscow’s restored might in the former USSR.

As a result, Tokayev dramatically undermined the Nazarbayev clan’s clout and became a full-fledged, independent leader – all thanks to Putin.

And some in Kazakhstan see his remarks about the Ukrainian separatists as part of a well-staged political spectacle aimed at distracting the West’s attention.
Kazakhstan is the largest of the ex-Soviet Central Asian "stans", as they are sometimes called, and it is the only one with a land border with Russia. Some other ones have a border with Russia in the middle of the Caspian Sea, however.
Yea. This is a very big deal. Kazakhstan is a big Russian ally. But no one likes a bully. Kazakhstan is far from a confirmed western ally. But Putler has really united the world (not just the west) into opposing imperialism.
 
Trouble for Russia from an unusual sort of source:
About protests of rising gas prices a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
A year later, Tokayev asked for Moscow’s help during the largest protests in Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet history.

Thousands of young Kazakhs rallied in several cities toppling statues of Nazarbayev, clashing with police and storming government buildings.

Tokayev asked the forces of the Russian-led military alliance of the former Soviet states to restore order. Known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the bloc includes Russia and five ex-Soviet nations.

The CSTO troops did fly in and helped restore law and order – and the move was widely seen as a symbol of Moscow’s restored might in the former USSR.

As a result, Tokayev dramatically undermined the Nazarbayev clan’s clout and became a full-fledged, independent leader – all thanks to Putin.

And some in Kazakhstan see his remarks about the Ukrainian separatists as part of a well-staged political spectacle aimed at distracting the West’s attention.
Kazakhstan is the largest of the ex-Soviet Central Asian "stans", as they are sometimes called, and it is the only one with a land border with Russia. Some other ones have a border with Russia in the middle of the Caspian Sea, however.
Yea. This is a very big deal. Kazakhstan is a big Russian ally. But no one likes a bully. Kazakhstan is far from a confirmed western ally. But Putler has really united the world (not just the west) into opposing imperialism.
Lukashenka tried to play both sides and distance himself from Russia also, but after faking election results to stay in power, he needed Putin's help to quell the protests, and burned any bridges to the west at the same time. Now he's Putin's bitch.

Same could happen to Tokayev. He'll try to be a player, but at some point, will need Russian intervention (again) to stay in power.
 
Trouble for Russia from an unusual sort of source:
About protests of rising gas prices a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
A year later, Tokayev asked for Moscow’s help during the largest protests in Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet history.

Thousands of young Kazakhs rallied in several cities toppling statues of Nazarbayev, clashing with police and storming government buildings.

Tokayev asked the forces of the Russian-led military alliance of the former Soviet states to restore order. Known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the bloc includes Russia and five ex-Soviet nations.

The CSTO troops did fly in and helped restore law and order – and the move was widely seen as a symbol of Moscow’s restored might in the former USSR.

As a result, Tokayev dramatically undermined the Nazarbayev clan’s clout and became a full-fledged, independent leader – all thanks to Putin.

And some in Kazakhstan see his remarks about the Ukrainian separatists as part of a well-staged political spectacle aimed at distracting the West’s attention.
Kazakhstan is the largest of the ex-Soviet Central Asian "stans", as they are sometimes called, and it is the only one with a land border with Russia. Some other ones have a border with Russia in the middle of the Caspian Sea, however.
Yea. This is a very big deal. Kazakhstan is a big Russian ally. But no one likes a bully. Kazakhstan is far from a confirmed western ally. But Putler has really united the world (not just the west) into opposing imperialism.
Lukashenka tried to play both sides and distance himself from Russia also, but after faking election results to stay in power, he needed Putin's help to quell the protests, and burned any bridges to the west at the same time. Now he's Putin's bitch.

Same could happen to Tokayev. He'll try to be a player, but at some point, will need Russian intervention (again) to stay in power.

That's true, but Tokayev has a lot of leverage. The Baikonur Cosmodrome is in Kazakhstan, so Russia really needs it at the very least for their space program.
 
Russia to drop out of International Space Station after 2024

MOSCOW — Russia will pull out of the International Space Station after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost, the country’s new space chief said Tuesday amid high tensions between Moscow and the West over the fighting in Ukraine.
The announcement, while not unexpected, throws into question the future of the 24-year-old space station, with experts saying it would be extremely difficult — perhaps a “nightmare,” by one reckoning — to keep it running without the Russians. NASA and its partners had hoped to continue operating it until 2030.
 
The more I watch "ukrainians" talking the more I get convinced that Ukraine was a mistake. Even many pro-russian people were not aware of what ukrainian nazis have been doing to Donbas for 8 years. Ukro-fascist media and schools were simply lying.
The level of their propaganda was greatly underestimated.

I honestly thought all these jokes about Independent Ukraine were jokes, they were not. These people were really brainwashed.

There is a video of captured in Azovstal ukrainian soldier who meets his wife.
Ukrainian government did not care about him so his wife went to Russia on her own to find him. Anyway, pretty happy meeting and the usual chat. But at one time he starts talking about reading about .... Lenin and Stalin for the fist time in his life.
The guy did not know who they were.
 
Russia to drop out of International Space Station after 2024

MOSCOW — Russia will pull out of the International Space Station after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost, the country’s new space chief said Tuesday amid high tensions between Moscow and the West over the fighting in Ukraine.
The announcement, while not unexpected, throws into question the future of the 24-year-old space station, with experts saying it would be extremely difficult — perhaps a “nightmare,” by one reckoning — to keep it running without the Russians. NASA and its partners had hoped to continue operating it until 2030.
That's a very good thing. The International Space Station mantra is to "enable long-term exploration of space and provide benefits to people on Earth. We don't want nations involved that will bomb the shit out of countries for having a bad street sign.
 
Putin's plan of building a new space station is solid... even if Tim Curry came up with it first.

 
The more I watch "ukrainians" talking the more I get convinced that Ukraine was a mistake. Even many pro-russian people were not aware of what ukrainian nazis have been doing to Donbas for 8 years. Ukro-fascist media and schools were simply lying.
The level of their propaganda was greatly underestimated.

I honestly thought all these jokes about Independent Ukraine were jokes, they were not. These people were really brainwashed.

The irony. It doesn't occur to him that many "pro-russian people were not aware of what ukrainian nazis have been doing to Donbas for 8 years" because there weren't any Ukrainian Nazis doing anything at all to them. Now there are millions of "pro-Russian" people in Russia itself who aren't aware of what Russian troops have been doing to Ukraine since February. Reading Russian news stories is like revisiting the pages of Orwell's 1984 again. Some in Russia are still in love with Big Brother as they march off to war with swastikas in the shape of "Z" painted over everything.


There is a video of captured in Azovstal ukrainian soldier who meets his wife.
Ukrainian government did not care about him so his wife went to Russia on her own to find him. Anyway, pretty happy meeting and the usual chat. But at one time he starts talking about reading about .... Lenin and Stalin for the fist time in his life.
The guy did not know who they were.

No source reference to check on this story, but that's hardly a surprise. If there is such a video, it was put out inside of the Russian propaganda bubble, and it was put there to perpetuate the myth that Ukrainians are somehow being duped into fighting to defend themselves against the friendly Russian troops that are bombarding civilian targets everywhere in Ukraine.
 
UK MOD says that Ukrainian forces have likely established a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, which forms the northern boundary of Russian-occupied territory.

Kherson's Antonivskiy Bridge although it’s still standing is now “completely unusable” after damage from the rocket attacks.

Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro river “now looks highly vulnerable” and that the city of Kherson is now cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by Moscow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share
 
UK MOD says that Ukrainian forces have likely established a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, which forms the northern boundary of Russian-occupied territory.

Kherson's Antonivskiy Bridge although it’s still standing is now “completely unusable” after damage from the rocket attacks.

Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro river “now looks highly vulnerable” and that the city of Kherson is now cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by Moscow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share
Silly goose! Obviously, the Russians are intentionally pulling out of Kherson in order to allow the Ukrainians to better export their grain!
 
The more I watch "ukrainians" talking the more I get convinced that Ukraine was a mistake.
*spit take*
Even many pro-russian people were not aware of what ukrainian nazis have been doing to Donbas for 8 years. Ukro-fascist media and schools were simply lying.
The level of their propaganda was greatly underestimated.
Wait, I thought this thing was over months ago?
I honestly thought all these jokes about Independent Ukraine were jokes, they were not. These people were really brainwashed.

There is a video of captured in Azovstal ukrainian soldier who meets his wife.
Ukrainian government did not care about him so his wife went to Russia on her own to find him. Anyway, pretty happy meeting and the usual chat. But at one time he starts talking about reading about .... Lenin and Stalin for the fist time in his life.
The guy did not know who they were.
Yeah, that sounds like such an authentic and organic conversation.
 
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