How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

EU finally holds clampdown on Russian visa.

It's about time. Tourist dollars be damned. It's measures like these that will turn the tide as much as military victory.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Always feel uneasy when this stuff occurs, waiting for the scorched Ukraine reprisal. Though it sounds like that already came in the form of bombing more civilian infrastructure.

Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end and barbos can tell us this was never about taking over Ukraine, but freeing it from Nazis. With the last Nazis killed, Russia brought the troops back home.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, if it is on Twitter, I'd be hesitant to believe just about anything that doesn't have a Reuters or AP News or BBC, etc... sourcing.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Pushilin has always had his lips attached to Putin's ass anyhow. Comrades and all.

 

[Jayjay]

Losing Izyum and Lyman means Russia is basically giving up on northern Donetsk oblast. A few months ago, after Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell, it looked like Russia was going to try a pincer from north to Sloviansk, and from south to Bakhmut. But it seems like they gave up on that plan in favor of advancing west from Donetsk. Maybe because of political pressure from Putin? But now the pincer has lost its other ... pince? pincer? pincet? ... and reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk is going to be very hard, if not impossible for Russia.

I think I got ahead of myself and Russia is making a stand in Lyman. Probably trying to keep the northern bank of Siversky Donets river.

Russia is striking Ukrainian power plants and electricity as reprisals, maybe hoping that darkness and cold will force Ukraine to come to the negotiation table. It will affect logistics, but will also just make the people hate Russia even more, if that's possible.

I think the long term result of Kharkiv offensive is that the war will be longer, but the terms of the inevitable peace will be more favorable to Ukraine.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It always seemed to be about time. But then Russia managed to get the oil / energy sold elsewhere to continue funding the war. But now winter is coming and the hearts and minds of conscripts and soldiers for Russia has got to be a concern. Ukraine is fighting for its existence. Russia knows how important a driver that can be. So, with uncertain troop mindsets and a known quantity for the Ukrainians, Russia might finally be running out of time.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Losing Izyum and Lyman means Russia is basically giving up on northern Donetsk oblast. A few months ago, after Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell, it looked like Russia was going to try a pincer from north to Sloviansk, and from south to Bakhmut. But it seems like they gave up on that plan in favor of advancing west from Donetsk. Maybe because of political pressure from Putin? But now the pincer has lost its other ... pince? pincer? pincet? ... and reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk is going to be very hard, if not impossible for Russia.

I think I got ahead of myself and Russia is making a stand in Lyman. Probably trying to keep the northern bank of Siversky Donets river.

Russia is striking Ukrainian power plants and electricity as reprisals, maybe hoping that darkness and cold will force Ukraine to come to the negotiation table. It will affect logistics, but will also just make the people hate Russia even more, if that's possible.

I think the long term result of Kharkiv offensive is that the war will be longer, but the terms of the inevitable peace will be more favorable to Ukraine.

Yes, there remains a long ways to go to end this war. And their will be setbacks. Very interesting comments from Moscow:

'Situation more difficult by the hour': Ukrainian forces break through to Russian border. Live updates.

"Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of his nation's Security Council, alluded to Zelenskyy’s refusal to conduct a dialogue "with those who put forward ultimatums." "The current 'ultimatums' are a warm-up for kids, a preview of demands to be made in the future," Medvedev said. "He (Zelenskyy) knows them: the total surrender of the Kiev regime on Russia's terms," Medvedev warned.

The Russians are in total la la land. I feel bad for the Ukrainians. How would anyone negotiate with the Russians? Let's hope for world peace that the next Russian regime is more realistic.

 

[steve_bank]

Medvedev, that name rings a bell. He helped engineer Putin's installing himself as dictator for eternity. As I recall Putin became prmre minister because legally he could nt run for president again and retained actual power while Medvedev was president.

Take anything from him like you would a Trump administration sycophant.

 

[Ford]

It always seemed to be about time. But then Russia managed to get the oil / energy sold elsewhere to continue funding the war. But now winter is coming and the hearts and minds of conscripts and soldiers for Russia has got to be a concern. Ukraine is fighting for its existence. Russia knows how important a driver that can be. So, with uncertain troop mindsets and a known quantity for the Ukrainians, Russia might finally be running out of time.

The situations are far from being analogous, but of all people, Putin should have seen that this might happen.

Back in the "glory days" he's trying to recreate, his former world-spanning country attempted to use their vaunted military might to turn a neighboring country into just another satellite state, and it went poorly. Granted, the country they invaded had a long history of being the "graveyard of empires," but the Soviets gave it a go anyway.

Turns out their military wasn't quite as competent, the poor villagers they attempted to subjugate were actually very good at war, and with a lot of help from western countries they managed to bankrupt the Soviet Union. I am of course vastly over-simplifying things, but there's definitely a few parallels.

Is Putin really going to repeat that fiasco, and drag out trying to conquer Ukraine as long as the USSR tried to dominate Afghanistan?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It always seemed to be about time. But then Russia managed to get the oil / energy sold elsewhere to continue funding the war. But now winter is coming and the hearts and minds of conscripts and soldiers for Russia has got to be a concern. Ukraine is fighting for its existence. Russia knows how important a driver that can be. So, with uncertain troop mindsets and a known quantity for the Ukrainians, Russia might finally be running out of time.

The situations are far from being analogous, but of all people, Putin should have seen that this might happen.

Back in the "glory days" he's trying to recreate, his former world-spanning country attempted to use their vaunted military might to turn a neighboring country into just another satellite state, and it went poorly. Granted, the country they invaded had a long history of being the "graveyard of empires," but the Soviets gave it a go anyway.

Turns out their military wasn't quite as competent, the poor villagers they attempted to subjugate were actually very good at war, and with a lot of help from western countries they managed to bankrupt the Soviet Union. I am of course vastly over-simplifying things, but there's definitely a few parallels.

Is Putin really going to repeat that fiasco, and drag out trying to conquer Ukraine as long as the USSR tried to dominate Afghanistan?

A Russian version of The Best And the Brightest. Russia needs a few David Halberstams but so long a it suppresses dissent and freedom it just ain't gonna happen. You want yes men you get yes men.

 

[steve_bank]

Irony perhaps Canada and America supplied Russia with materials and weapons in WWII, even though we were not allies. Rails and rolling stock for transportation.

Stalin acknowledged the importance post war and paid for the supplies.

Putin adopted Trump's slogan 'fake news' as did other authoritarian leaders.

It comes down to Putin's personality and mental health. I am sure intelligence agencies have psychological profiles and a detailed personal history of Putin that factors into decisions.

That kind of intelligence and sources is why Trump's taking classified documents is so troubling. It is not unthkable that Trump passed information to Russia ta factors into Putin's calculations.

Take him to court, convict him, and line the son of bitch up and shoot him for treason.

 

[lpetrich]

Tarmo Juntunen NAFO on Twitter: "One more video from the entrance to Izyum. The guys from the International Legion (vid link)" / Twitter
With another big Izyum signpost.

Christopher Miller on Twitter: "I recognize that building… that’s the Izyum district government building. And those are Ukrainian troops raising the blue-and-yellow and firing off a few celebratory rounds. Incredible. (vid link)" / Twitter
also
Yaroslav Trofimov on Twitter: "Here it is in better days. (pic link)" / Twitter

Simon on Twitter: "@ChristopherJM (pic link)" / Twitter
"Mr. President, Kremlin is now liberated!"
"Crimea!! I said Crimea!"

Fuat on Twitter: "Our war trophies in Izyum. (vid link)" / Twitter
The Russian occupiers left a lot behind as they fled.

Tempo Dolok on Twitter: " trophy in Izyum. #Russian #Rusia #Ukraine #ukraina #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #RussiaIsATerroristState (vid link)" / Twitter
A Russian APC?

Xenta on Twitter: "Accord. to the mayor of Izyum Valery Marchenko thousand local people died as result of russian hostilities in city
People suffered because they didn't receive medical help in time: russia destroyed all medical facilities in Izyum
More than 80% of entire infrastructure was destroyed (pix link)" / Twitter

80% of Izium's infrastructure destroyed, about 10,000 people remain in city — Izyum City Council - Media Center Ukraine

 

[lpetrich]

WhereisRussiaToday on Twitter: "Burned Russians flags are all that is left of Russia's occupation of Kupyansk.
#Ukraine #Ucraina #UkrainianArmy (vid link)" / Twitter

Illia Ponomarenko on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops already in Kupyansk.
Russians basically offered no resistance. (pix link)" / Twitter

Jimmy on Twitter: "Confirmation that the city of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, has now been liberated by Ukrainian troops. (pic link)" / Twitter
Someone else tweeted that Lithuanian volunteers were involved. Are they trying to rebuild the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

So the Ukrainian armed forces have recovered a long stretch west of the Oskil River, from Izyum to Vovchansk, and there are plenty of rumors of more on the way.

 

[steve_bank]

Apparently the Russian army does not have the ability to build a combat bridge when bridges are blown.

 

[Jarhyn]

Apparently the Russian army does not have the ability to build a combat bridge when bridges are blown.

Of course they don't. An effective engineering corps requires more than press-ganging and abusive treatment to train

 

[Jayjay]

Apparently the Russian army does not have the ability to build a combat bridge when bridges are blown.

What do you mean? Russia has built plenty of pontoon bridges.

 

[pood]

Ministry of Truth (Pravda) Moscow
Contact: Baghdad Bob Bolshoi Barbos

The war special military operation to bully and conquer an independent nation de-Nazify Ukraine in a conflict started by the scoundrel in the Kremlin NATO continues to go belly up according to plan.

For example, on Saturday, our Dear Leader, Vladimir V. Putin, dedicated a large ferris wheel in Moscow. It is much larger than any Ferris wheel in Ukraine. So we win!

In accordance with our plans, Russian forces are folding like a cheap tent advancing briskly west, away from Ukraine, toward Russia. This advance is going splendidly, and is facing no opposition from outmatched Ukrainian forces except from behind.

This cowardly retreat bold advance is a repetition of our dreadful debacle glorious success in Kyiv, when our forces retreated advanced north away from the Ukrainian capital to ignominiously botch successfully complete our initial campaign of conquest de-Nazification.

I can report unequivocally that there are currently no Ukrainian tanks rolling through the streets of Moscow, and, if there are, the invaders are either burning up in their tanks, committing suicide, or surrendering by the hundreds of thousands. The blue-and-yellow flag currently flying over the Kremlin is a trick of light and shadow.

Baghdad Bob Bolshoi Barbos

 

[lpetrich]

NEXTA on Twitter: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces took control of settlement Velykyi Burluk, #Kharkiv region. (vid link)" / Twitter
Between Vovchansk and Kupyansk

Are Ukraine's forces advancing east of the Vovchansk - Kupyansk - Izyum line?

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "BREAKING:
The Ukrainian Army confirms that the Russian forces have fled the city of Svatove. Earlier in the day, videos from the city of Starobilsk further east made it appears as if Russian troops were leaving that city too.
It could help Ukraine outflank Severodonetsk. (pic link)" / Twitter

NO WAR! on Twitter: "Luhansk Region Surroundings of Starobilsk. The Russians are fleeing towards Luhansk.#RussianArmy (vid link)" / Twitter

Counterchekist #StandWithUkraine on Twitter: "MAJOR: Ukraine claims Russian forces have withdrawn from Svatove in Luhansk Oblast. Reports say nearby Starobilsk has been abandoned, too. Control of those two villages would allow UAF to outflank Severodonetsk and directly threaten Luhansk city. Slava Ukraini! (pic link)" / Twitter

Using Maps as Data Proxies on Twitter: "
UA eastern front map update, 12 Sept
RU collapse continues with withdrawal from Svatove.
UA expanded ops to all of the border north of Kharkiv.
UA expanded control/supply past Izyum.
Expanding ops northwest of Severodonetsk.
(cont) (pic link)" / Twitter

Using Maps as Data Proxies on Twitter: "Notable decline in UA strikes, except for main Luhnask-Donetsk axis. UA doesn't strike where it plans to move ops so inference is they're well into phase two of counteroffensivee. The push east of Oskil River toward Severodonetsk is on.
(END)" / Twitter

Polemology Positions on Twitter: "@MapsAsDataProxy FWIW I have a clocked a consistent ~48 hour cycle for Ukrainian logistics/fire support to prepare for the next attack, 24/hot 24/cold. So you are probably right" / Twitter

It looks like Ukraine will soon reconquer the northern part of Luhansk Oblast and surround Severodonetsk.

 

[lpetrich]

RØb€rtO #FBPE #USoE #OC on Twitter: "#Kreminna è la prima città dell'Oblast del #Lugansk #Riconquistata (pic link)" / Twitter

"Kreminna is the first city of the Lugansk (Luhansk) Oblast to be reconquered." It's a little NW of Severodonetsk.

Ucraina - Russia, le news dalla guerra dell’11 settembre - la Repubblica
In Italian. Title: "Ucraina - Russia, le news dalla guerra oggi. Russi in fuga. Kadyrov critica Mosca, Macron chiama Putin"
Google Translate unedited:

Ukraine - Russia, news from the war today. Russians on the run. Kadyrov criticizes Moscow, Macron calls Putin.

The Russian front in eastern Ukraine gave way and Ukrainian forces took over the cities of Kupyansk and Izyum in just one day after a very rapid advance, which is not over and is spreading to other sectors of the front. Vladimir Putin not only lost a strategic location in a few hours, nullifying months of bloody fighting, but for the first time ever his troops went completely in disarray. But the Ukrainian president is cautious. "Moscow hopes to break the Ukrainian resistance in winter, counting on heating problems in Ukraine and on a possible weakening of Western support for Kiev due to rising energy prices in Europe," said Volodymyr Zelensky. The mayor of Izyum has fled to Russia, while the Chechen leader Kadyrov heavily criticizes Moscow. Macron telephones Putin for a "straight and detailed call" to talk about Ukrainian wheat.