How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

Five Russian officials arrested for proposing to remove Putin from power, charge him with treason

Russia's momentum has stalled, and Ukraine has managed to start building an advantage again in the contested eastern Donbas region. Some Russian officials have blamed Putin.

www.foxnews.com

 

[bilby]

Agreed. When I asked Barbos about what he'd think would happen if Russia gets pushed back to pre-Feb 2022 areas, he advocated for nuclear war. Clearly the nuclear option has been coming up more and more as Russia keeps backsliding and losing allies. My hope is that China will see reason and could talk Russia off of nuclear suicide.

I have a question. Considering the huge disparity between what Putin thought the Russian military was like in January and what it actually is, how meaningful is Russia's nuclear arsenal nowadays? Has it been traded for a bunch of IOUs and vodka? I suspect it has the capability to turn some of Ukraine into a parking lot, but that would severely deplete their nuclear stockpile.

Let's see; A weapons system that everyone knows is almost certainly never going to be used, but which requires technically advanced and therefore expensive maintenance. And which cannot even be tested, due to international treaty obligations.

If you were a grifter at any level in the chain of command, whose responsibility includes keeping these weapons in working order, why wouldn't you convert the maintenance and parts budgets into a vodka and hookers fund?

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

 

[SLD]

A sane person was allowed to appear in Russian state television:

Nadezhdin: We're now at the point when we have to understand it's absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to wage war, using contract soldiers, mercenaries, no mobilization. A strong army is opposing the Russian Army, fully supported by the most powerful countries, in the economic and technological sense, including European countries.

Host: Are you suggesting military mobilization?

Nadezhdin: I'm suggesting peace talks about stopping the war, and moving on to dealing with political issues.

Although even he started with a delusional "Putin was misinformed" trope, as if all Putin wanted was peace and love. But he's still a stark contrast to the other politicians on the panel, who are still calling for "nazi regime" to be eradicated before any negotiations.

Yeah, looking like cracks in Putin’s armor. This plus other pundits criticizing the war, and the St. Petersburg deputies daring to speak out. There’s another concern he’s got to deal with: flat out military revolt. There are numerous stories of soldiers fragging officers, of refusing to fight, and of course running away. A defeated army is dangerous to rulers. Putin has every reason to be scared. He cannot seek peace, but he can’t win. Which leaves nukes, but will his military say no? And that’s the end of him. Maybe.

 

[ZiprHead]

Putin faces second revolt as Russian officials slam war, demand resignation

Deputies in Moscow's Lomonosovsky Municipal District said "it all went wrong somehow" during the president's tenure.

www.newsweek.com

A Moscow municipality has become the second Russian local authority this week to take the risk of calling for Vladimir Putin's resignation.

The letter addressed to the president by council deputies at Lomonosovsky Municipal District did not directly mention Putin's invasion of Ukraine, but did refer to how Russia had now become "feared and hated" while "aggression" has taken the country back to the "Cold War era."

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Elixir]

Ll l

why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

… and save the world in the process!

 

[Jayjay]

The date should be a clue that nothing special happened.

 

[SLD]

Unfortunately this Is fake news. Look at the date.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What has transpired in the last few days is beyond even my wildest imagination. I assumed that if Ukraine had learned new tricks, it would use them in Donetsk or Kherson first.

I don't think this is a case of new tricks. Rather, it's the result of cutting the bridges and impeding the supplies. They apparently judged that the Russian forces that were across the river couldn't hold and they swept them up because they couldn't retreat fast enough--and the troops would be using whatever fuel they had to get themselves out rather than to get their equipment out, especially as that equipment wasn't going to be able to cross the river anyway.

The new trick was the ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. It's about having solid basics: training of troops, competent leadership, APCs and tanks. So far Ukraine has had trouble with that, and still is in other front: the counter-offensive in Kherson (which was partially a feint) had relatively high casualties compared to the land recovered. I think that's because the Kherson front didn't have the best troops or officers.

Bridges weren't that big of a deal in the beginning of the Kharkiv offensive, because there were multiple rail roads from Belgorod. But Russia had shortage of manpower, so the Kharkiv front was just held up by forced conscripts, national guard, and other inferior troops. In essence, Ukraine's best against Russia's worst. And when the front line was breached, there was no second line prepared behind it.

It's not something new--they're moving forward into disorganized forces that can't offer much resistance. They don't need to be very good when they're routing their opponents.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Let's see; A weapons system that everyone knows is almost certainly never going to be used, but which requires technically advanced and therefore expensive maintenance. And which cannot even be tested, due to international treaty obligations.

If you were a grifter at any level in the chain of command, whose responsibility includes keeping these weapons in working order, why wouldn't you convert the maintenance and parts budgets into a vodka and hookers fund?

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

We have already seen how lousy Russian weapons are--most conventional missiles didn't reach their targets and go boom. I would be astounded if their nukes weren't in far worse shape--dictatorships work on a single line of control, if those above are dirty the guy on the bottom can't do anything about it. Why would an inspection even be performed?

I just wouldn't want to count on every weapon not working.

 

[Patooka]

Ll l

why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

… and save the world in the process!

Stanislav Petrov missed a great opportunity.

 

[fromderinside]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

 

[bilby]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

How do those models go about detecting warheads whose innards have been removed and replaced with an equal mass of sand, gravel, or lead?

 

[steve_bank]

Was it Cesar who said 'seize the day'?

Throughout history the best military leaders were all able to adapt and explot chgnaging conditions.

It also comes down to the individual soldiers. In the invasion of France Omha Beach was on the verge of disaster. The day was saved by individuals on the neah taking control of their immediate situation.

A destroyer or cruiser ignored orders and went back and forth close to the beach. Tanks on the beach were ineffective against the fortifications. They would shoot at something and then jump and and down waving at the ship. The captain figured it out and began shooting where the tanks fired.

A reserve officer was with a group of soidiers where frozen behind a wall on Omaha beach afaied to move. I'd have to look up his name. He stood up exposng hmself and said 'We can die here or die fighting'. It tallied the men. He was shot and killed later in the day. I expect that is what we would see if we were with the Ukrainians.

Individual initiative. From what I read in the 80s Russian soldiers were typically kept in the dark. No initiative.

I read a translation of a Russian pape rin the 80s published in a militray journal. The author said it was difficult to plan against the Americans by studying their manuals. Once a battle begins they never follow 'the book'.

I think communism killed any sense of initiative.

 

[fromderinside]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

How do those models go about detecting warheads whose innards have been removed and replaced with an equal mass of sand, gravel, or lead?

Since many of the devices have been in place since the sixties before restrictions there are plenty of material around to use in simulations.

It would take some pretty bold fudging to remove and replace material.

Besides those built and installed after inspection limitations and testing limits there is plenty of evidence of what is in and about those devices.

 

[fromderinside]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

How do those models go about detecting warheads whose innards have been removed and replaced with an equal mass of sand, gravel, or lead?

Since many of the devices have been in place since the sixties before restrictions there are plenty of material around to use in simulations.

It would take some pretty bold fudging to remove and replace material.

Besides those built and installed after inspection limitations and testing limits there is plenty of evidence of what is in and about those devices. Besides line military are required to engage and test monitors and systems on a regular basis. Even 20 years after I left the military I was engaged in DoD in test and evaluation of aircraft where many systems are testable right up to engage. That's about 33 years ago now and feed back from grand kids suggest those practices are still in place.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin has postponed all his meetings with the leadership of the Russian MoD and representatives of the Russian defense industry in Sochi—a bizarre decision in the face of the military operational and defense industrial crisis facing Russia.

Let's get ready to play, The Blame Game. Followed by, It's Raining Russians.

But you'll still be stuck between a rock and a hard place, Vlad. You can only replace so much of your command structure, throw so many people out windows before everyone starts to turn to who made this mess in the first place.

And you don't have any reinforcements of significance to send to the front, do you? So you have to raise or fold. And you're probably going to need to have direct attacks on Russia to raise.

 

[TV and credit cards]

EU finally holds clampdown on Russian visa.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yesterday

I don't know if this amounts to a hill of beans but at least they have the courage to speak out. Their grievances read like content right out of the Western news. I'm starting to think Barbos had it all wrong.

Municipal deputies for the Smolninskoye District in St. Petersburg plan to submit a petition to the State Duma (the Russian parliament) to charge Russian president Vladimir Putin with high treason for unleashing the war in Ukraine. Deputy Dmitry Palyuga announced the intention on Twitter.

According to Palyuga, “the majority of deputies in attendance supported the decision.” In conversation with The Insider, he specified that seven out of ten voted in favor of the initiative.

According to its sponsors, Putin’s actions since the beginning of the “special military operation” fall under Article 93 of the Russian Constitution, which stipulates for the president's impeachment based on charges of high treason or other serious crimes brought against them by the State Duma.

The president's decision to attack Ukraine is “detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens”, the petition reads, because the Russian army is losing its fighting-fit units and its servicemen become disabled. The authors of the petition also point out that the withdrawal of foreign players from the Russian market and the “brain drain” accelerated by massive emigration are bound to leave a dent in “the Russian nation's economic wellbeing”. The deputies also underline that NATO is pushing its frontiers eastward, contrary to the announced goals of the special operation, while Ukraine is receiving state-of-the-art weapons.

“While the Russian president declared the demilitarization of Ukraine as one of his goals, we are witnessing the opposite happen. This is not to say that we stand in full support of the goals declared by President Putin, but even in his own terms, he is harming Russia's national security,” Palyuga explained to The Insider. “We want to let people know that there are deputies who are opposed to the current policy and who believe that Putin is harming Russia. We also want to let them know we are not afraid to speak out.”

Today
Police summons deputies who said Putin should be charged with treason.

Tomorrow
Job openings.

And now Moscow.

The Council of Deputies of Moscow's Lomonosovsky Municipal District has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign. They said that since Putin's second term in office, “everything has gone wrong”: the GDP has not doubled, the minimum wage has not increased according to expectations, intelligent and hard-working people are leaving Russia en mass, and the promised stability is gone.

“Elections are approaching, and in a few days the composition of our Council will change. We have held our positions for five years and it is time to give them up to fresh people, with new ideas and strengths. Studies show that in countries with regular turnover of power, people on average live better and longer than in those where the leader leaves office feet first. You made good reforms during your first and part of your second term, but after that it all went wrong somehow. (...)
The rhetoric you and your subordinates have used for a long time is imbued with intolerance and aggression, which in the end has effectively sent our country back into the Cold War era. Russia is once again feared and hated, and we are once again threatening the world with nuclear weapons.
In view of the above, we ask that you resign from your post, since your views and your model of government are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential.”
Earlier, a similar statement was made by municipal deputies from the Smolninskoye municipality of St. Petersburg. They plan to address the State Duma in the coming days with a proposal to charge Vladimir Putin with high treason because of the war in Ukraine.

Brave Russians who love their country sign a public demand for Putin to step down.
These municipal deputies of Saint Petersburg and Moscow.