How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Hell of a way to run a military. But if that's all you've ever known that's all you've ever known. Pewstain's finest.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Hermit]

"Parody by Back Rub"

 

[TV and credit cards]

Might Russia be expelled from the UN Security Council?
As the representative for the USSR, they have violated the hell out of their agreement to respect the borders of their former republics. This would leave only Ukraine as its successor.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Might Russia be expelled from the UN Security Council?
As the representative for the USSR, they have violated the hell out of their agreement to respect the borders of their former republics. This would leave only Ukraine as its successor.

Absolutly they should be booted from the UN security council. They don't respect other countries sovereignty. China will save them though.

 

[Jayjay]

Also there is no way to kick anyone out of the security council, because it requires an unanimous decision by the security council, including the country that is being kicked out. Only way would be to pressure Russia to give up its seat voluntarily which is hardly going to happen.

Other member nations could just quit and form a new council without Russia. But like Harry pointed out, there's no reason why China would agree to it. The whole premise that the winners of WW2 (or their successors, in case of Russia) are the ones who have permanent seats in the SC is outdated and the entire institution should be rethought.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Also there is no way to kick anyone out of the security council, because it requires an unanimous decision by the security council, including the country that is being kicked out. Only way would be to pressure Russia to give up its seat voluntarily which is hardly going to happen.

Other member nations could just quit and form a new council without Russia. But like Harry pointed out, there's no reason why China would agree to it. The whole premise that the winners of WW2 (or their successors, in case of Russia) are the ones who have permanent seats in the SC is outdated and the entire institution should be rethought.

If I fully understand the article I linked, it is ultimately a matter of nine of the fifteen members voting for it and there is no veto power in these regards.

 

[Patooka]

So, remember all the times since February Barbos has been advocating an invasion of Ukraine because there were Nazis?

What we know about the Russian school shooting

The killing of as many as 17 people, including 11 children, is the second school shooting in Russia this year. Here's what we know about how it happened, and what the response has been.

www.abc.net.au

Investigators say the attacker "was wearing a black top with Nazi symbols and a balaclava" when his body was discovered.

Russia's Investigative Committee, which handles major crimes, said it was looking into the perpetrator's suspected neo-Nazi links.

I'm going to make my point very clear. I am not advocating Udmurtia to be unilaterally bombed because of the heinous event.

I am not enjoying or encouraging any to enjoy in the misery this tragedy has caused.

I am saying that this atrocity put to rest, once and for all, that the argument that Putin's unprovoked and illegal invasion into Ukraine was about Nazis is complete and utter bullshit. It is utterly reprehensible for anyone to perpetuate such lie when such acts are committed inside Russia.

 

[Oleg]

Conscripts in the Russian Federation break their legs to avoid being mobilized - Placed in hide tags for the squeemish.

Spoiler

 

[Jayjay]

What. The. Fuck?!?

 

[lpetrich]

A U.N. Security Council Permanent Member’s De Facto Immunity From Article 6 Expulsion: Russia’s Fact or Fiction? - Lawfare
Some complicated lawyering of the UN Charter that I found difficult to follow. But I think that if enough UN members want to, they could likely force a demotion of Russia from its permanent seat in the Security Council.

But in better news.
MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: "Video Ukrainian troops entering Ridkodub in #Donetsk Oblast. Just further confirmation that the settlement is under Ukrainian control. #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

I noticed that Ukrainians have their own symbol for their military vehicles: +

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
The advance on the east bank of the Oskil has continued.
In the north liberated Kup'yans'k-Vuzlovyi and reached the outskirts of Tavil'zhanka.
North of Lyman have liberated Pisky-Rad'kivs'ki, Korovii Yar, Karpivka, and Ridkodub. Shandryholove is contested. (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

James Waterhouse on Twitter: "No need to sit down, but -installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:
- 97% in Kherson region
- 98% in Zaporizhzhia
- 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”
- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”" / Twitter
then
Ryan Grim on Twitter: "Putin missed a clever way to dodge an L. Announce results that show voters rejecting the referendum and then withdraw because you have so much respect for democracy and the will of the people" / Twitter

Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions | Reuters

Russian-installed officials took ballot boxes from house to house in what Ukraine and the West said was an illegitimate, coercive exercise to create a legal pretext for Russia to annex the four regions.

...
The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said the initial counts showed majorities ranging from 96.97% in the Kherson region, based on 14% of votes counted, to 98.19% in Zaporizhzhia, based on 18% of the count.

The majorities in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics were just under 98%, with 14% and 13% respectively of votes tallied.

The scale of the pro-Moscow vote came as no surprise, after voting that Ukraine said was carried out at gunpoint in many cases.

It mirrored a referendum in Crimea after Russia's seizure of the region from Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea's leaders declared a 97% vote to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

 

[bilby]

Also there is no way to kick anyone out of the security council, because it requires an unanimous decision by the security council, including the country that is being kicked out. Only way would be to pressure Russia to give up its seat voluntarily which is hardly going to happen.

Other member nations could just quit and form a new council without Russia. But like Harry pointed out, there's no reason why China would agree to it. The whole premise that the winners of WW2 (or their successors, in case of Russia) are the ones who have permanent seats in the SC is outdated and the entire institution should be rethought.

To be fair, it does appear to have been highly effective in preventing Germany from invading anyone.

 

[bilby]

James Waterhouse on Twitter: "No need to sit down, but -installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:
- 97% in Kherson region
- 98% in Zaporizhzhia
- 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”
- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”" / Twitter
then
Ryan Grim on Twitter: "Putin missed a clever way to dodge an L. Announce results that show voters rejecting the referendum and then withdraw because you have so much respect for democracy and the will of the people" / Twitter

Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions | Reuters

Russian-installed officials took ballot boxes from house to house in what Ukraine and the West said was an illegitimate, coercive exercise to create a legal pretext for Russia to annex the four regions.

...
The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said the initial counts showed majorities ranging from 96.97% in the Kherson region, based on 14% of votes counted, to 98.19% in Zaporizhzhia, based on 18% of the count.

The majorities in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics were just under 98%, with 14% and 13% respectively of votes tallied.

The scale of the pro-Moscow vote came as no surprise, after voting that Ukraine said was carried out at gunpoint in many cases.

It mirrored a referendum in Crimea after Russia's seizure of the region from Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea's leaders declared a 97% vote to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

Only people with no understanding of what democracy is even for would generate such nonsensical results.

If they faked a 60-40 result, it wouldn't be so bleeding bloody obvious that the whole thing was a sham.

As soon as one side gets better than 90%, anyone with a passing familiarity with democracy will be highly suspicious.

A result of better than 95% in favour of anything flies in the face of what we know about human behaviour. More than 5% of the public would vote against anything; There's at least that many who are too dumb to understand the question, or too dumb to mark the correct box, or who are simply trolls, larrikins, or other kinds of contrarian and would cast a vote against anything that they recognised had overwhelming support.

If you're going to make up fake results, at least make some effort to produce results that aren't completely laughable.

 

[lpetrich]

UN votes to allow Ukraine's Zelenskyy to give virtual speech | AP News - "September 16, 2022"

The 193-member world body approved Volodymyr Zelenskky’s virtual address by a vote of 101-7 with 19 abstentions including China. The seven countries voting “no” were Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

...
The document, which was proposed by Ukraine and had more than 50 co-sponsors, permits Zelenskyy to submit a pre-recorded statement to be played in the General Assembly hall. It stresses that this will not set a precedent for future high-level assembly meetings.

I've been unable to find a list of those abstentions, and unable to find a record of the vote on the UN's site. I'll keep looking, in case the site managers are being slow.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Despite being in it, the UN also seemed to help prevent WWIII during the Cuban Missile Crisis. It sucks having nations of disreputable standing being in such high positions of power, but isn't this what helps prevent the big skirmishes that lead to the deaths of millions of people? The UN isn't there to stop violence, it is there to prevent WWII Take II.

As far as the election results, I mean... couldn't they 2 to 1 the results and make it look legit? In our voting democracy in the US, 80 to 85% is usually the highest anything gets... and that is to support the Zoo.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Despite being in it, the UN also seemed to help prevent WWIII during the Cuban Missile Crisis. It sucks having nations of disreputable standing being in such high positions of power, but isn't this what helps prevent the big skirmishes that lead to the deaths of millions of people? The UN isn't there to stop violence, it is there to prevent WWII Take II.

As far as the election results, I mean... couldn't they 2 to 1 the results and make it look legit? In our voting democracy in the US, 80 to 85% is usually the highest anything gets... and that is to support the Zoo.

300,000 people have already left Pewtinstan. No doubt most of conscription age, and they're still streaming across. If you're looking for a 99.99% vote against annexation these folks are probably it.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A U.N. Security Council Permanent Member’s De Facto Immunity From Article 6 Expulsion: Russia’s Fact or Fiction? - Lawfare

The text must not be slavishly followed. If necessary, it must be vivified so as to harmonize it with the new conditions of international life. When the wording of a text seems clear, that is not sufficient reason for following it literally, without taking into account the consequences of its application.

In other words, when a literal reading would lead to “unreasonable or absurd results,” and “run counter to the purposes of the institution,” the interpretation of the text must be read more broadly and contextually.

Now why can't the US Supreme Court have such reading skills?

 

[Jayjay]

James Waterhouse on Twitter: "No need to sit down, but -installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:
- 97% in Kherson region
- 98% in Zaporizhzhia
- 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”
- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”" / Twitter
then
Ryan Grim on Twitter: "Putin missed a clever way to dodge an L. Announce results that show voters rejecting the referendum and then withdraw because you have so much respect for democracy and the will of the people" / Twitter

Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions | Reuters

Russian-installed officials took ballot boxes from house to house in what Ukraine and the West said was an illegitimate, coercive exercise to create a legal pretext for Russia to annex the four regions.

...
The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said the initial counts showed majorities ranging from 96.97% in the Kherson region, based on 14% of votes counted, to 98.19% in Zaporizhzhia, based on 18% of the count.

The majorities in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics were just under 98%, with 14% and 13% respectively of votes tallied.

The scale of the pro-Moscow vote came as no surprise, after voting that Ukraine said was carried out at gunpoint in many cases.

It mirrored a referendum in Crimea after Russia's seizure of the region from Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea's leaders declared a 97% vote to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

Only people with no understanding of what democracy is even for would generate such nonsensical results.

If they faked a 60-40 result, it wouldn't be so bleeding bloody obvious that the whole thing was a sham.

As soon as one side gets better than 90%, anyone with a passing familiarity with democracy will be highly suspicious.

A result of better than 95% in favour of anything flies in the face of what we know about human behaviour. More than 5% of the public would vote against anything; There's at least that many who are too dumb to understand the question, or too dumb to mark the correct box, or who are simply trolls, larrikins, or other kinds of contrarian and would cast a vote against anything that they recognised had overwhelming support.

If you're going to make up fake results, at least make some effort to produce results that aren't completely laughable.

The idea isn't to be believable. They know very well that nobody seriously believes this was a democratic vote. The point is to force at gunpoint the people to take sides: Vote for us, or end up in a ditch. And to show that the oppressor can get away with anything.

 

[lpetrich]

UN votes to allow Ukraine's Zelenskyy to give virtual speech | AP News - "September 16, 2022"

The 193-member world body approved Volodymyr Zelenskky’s virtual address by a vote of 101-7 with 19 abstentions including China. The seven countries voting “no” were Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

...
The document, which was proposed by Ukraine and had more than 50 co-sponsors, permits Zelenskyy to submit a pre-recorded statement to be played in the General Assembly hall. It stresses that this will not set a precedent for future high-level assembly meetings.

I've been unable to find a list of those abstentions, and unable to find a record of the vote on the UN's site. At this time, I can find records of votes up to a few days before, so the UN's staff may be slow in updating their site.