How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainians are not giving up.

"Never" giving up. I'm really impressed with Ukraine's fight. Those people can fuck you up good and they're clever. Long term, Putin or whoever succeeds this clown is just as fucked.

Unless on the off chance they manage to put a human being in charge of Russia. As it stands now, it looks like it could only go from bad to worse.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine is continuing its slow advance toward Svatove. Ukraine update: Good news, unbelievable news, and puzzling news from Svatove

Overnight, the news out of the area around Svatove was decidedly … weird. While Russian sources appeared in a near panic about new Ukrainian advances and seemed ready to write off the whole area, one of the most trusted Ukrainian sources was reporting an advance by Russian forces that caused Ukrainian troops to withdraw from two key towns. All of that might have been easier to sort out if the reports had not been for the exact same area. And while that was going on, another report had Ukrainian forces so near Svatove they could have waved to people in town.

The Russian occupiers of Svatove must be getting scared.

NOËL on Twitter: "The railway bridge in #Svatove was reportedly blown up by Russian forces. (pix link)" / Twitter

Evergreen Intel on Twitter: "The destroyed bridge over the Krasna River at 49.21623, 38.18554, Krasnorichens'ke, Luhansk, south of Svatove. According to Serhii Haidai (head of Luhansk Oblast military administration) the Russians blew the bridge out of worry Ukrainians were approaching. (pix link)" / Twitter

But on a more positive note,

Ukraine-Russia war on Twitter: "#Poland is transferring its PT-91 Twardy tanks to #Ukraine by rail
#Kherson #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

Is this an effort to rebuild the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

 

[lpetrich]

Nothing much new near Kherson. I've seen the speculation that Russians' announcing their withdrawal from there was a way to get Ukrainians to try to retake that city -- and to do so prematurely.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker on Twitter: "#Ukraine: Remarkable video of today's attack on the Russian Sevastopol Naval Base.
Ukrainian Uncrewed Surface Vessels (Drone boats filled with explosives) apparently managed to hit a Project 11356R frigate (presumably Admiral Makarov) & the Ivan Golubets Project 266M minesweeper. (vid link)" / Twitter

Ukraine Weapons Tracker on Twitter: "In the second clip we can see a USV being targeted by a Russian fire from ships, motor boats and even helicopters. The damage dealt to the ships is yet to be assessed since no aftermath photos are available. (vid link)" / Twitter

 

[Loren Pechtel]

This war is up to Biden. He controls what weapons can be sent to Ukrainian fighters. We have old F14s that they could use if only they had been trained. Ukraine has pilots ready to go. We have old F14s that are to be pulled from Okinawa and likely more in layup that could be used. We can give them longer range weapons that can hit Russian naval assets. We can hit Iranian manufacturing facilities.
We could stop or greatly curtail the suffering of Ukrainian civilians if it weren’t for Obama-lite.
Ukrainians are not giving up. There is no winning for Russia. It’s just a matter of how much we let them suffer.

There's no parts supply for them. And they're notorious for the amount of maintenance they need--maintenance Ukraine won't be able to provide. Furthermore, what would Ukraine do with them? Their vaunted armament, the Phoenix, is built to kill bombers at long range. It's not too good against fighters. Nor is the Tomcat--it's limited to 6.5g which won't cut it in a dogfight. We ditched them for a very good reason.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

i did read another article about Ukrainians hitting targets deep inside Russia with certain special forces. But they were attacking helicopters near Latvia, not hitting missile sites near the Caspian Sea. They need to find ways to sabotage Russia’s abilities to launch ballistic missiles at them.

I very much doubt they could. Such capability is going to be too dispersed for special forces to hit them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The war is demonstrating that we’ve been successful in creating weapons that neutralize the previous wars offensive systems - armor and air power. We are almost back to WWI trench warfare and lines frozen for years. Ukraine still hasn’t made much headway around Kherson.

Yes and no. Armor and air power can't stand up to the missile threat. However, artillery is far more potent than it was back then, Ukraine has made substantial advances because they were able to interdict Russian supply lines. You defeat static defensive lines by going around them.

 

[lpetrich]

Opinion | Putin Is Starting to Do What Won Him a War 7 Years Ago - The New York Times

In 2015, as Bashar al-Assad was losing his war to remain in power in Syria, he pleaded for, and got, Russian military intervention. President Barack Obama reacted with airy disdain.

“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire, and it won’t work,” Obama said that October.

It turned out differently. The Russian military, led by some of the same officers now commanding Putin’s war in Ukraine, achieved an unexpected victory over a brutalized people and a self-deluded American administration.

The key to Russia’s success was the deliberate, indiscriminate and massive slaughter of civilians. “Rescue workers in Aleppo reported that their cars and headquarters were among the first targets hit on Friday,” The Times’s Anne Barnard and Somini Sengupta reported in September 2016. “The effect was instant: Now, when people are buried in rubble, no one comes. Or it takes longer for them to arrive. Relatives are again exhuming relatives with their own hands.”

This is the approach that Putin, with the assistance of Iranian drones, is now adopting in Ukraine. On Monday, Russian strikes left 80 percent of Kyiv’s residents without water, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko’s estimate. Dozens of energy facilities have also been hit. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates that as many as 130,000 buildings have been destroyed in Russian attacks since the war began, including 2,400 schools.

The strategy is clear. Putin’s armies might be falling back in the field. But if he can freeze, starve and terrorize Ukraine’s people by going after their water supplies and energy infrastructure — while waiting for winter to blunt Ukraine’s advance — he might still be able to force Kyiv to accept some sort of armistice, leaving him in possession of most of his conquests.

That seems to fit.

 

[lpetrich]

Putin Says Russia Is Battling ‘Strange’ Western Elites - The New York Times

Playing to Western Discord, Putin Says Russia Is Battling ‘Strange’ Elites

Ahead of U.S. elections, the Russian leader sounded like some right-wing Westerners, saying his fight is not with those in the West who hold “traditional values.”

...
“There are at least two Wests,” Mr. Putin said.

One, he said, is a West of “traditional, mainly Christian values” for which Russians feel kinship. But, he said, “there’s another West — aggressive, cosmopolitan, neocolonial, acting as the weapon of the neoliberal elite,” and trying to impose its “pretty strange” values on everyone else. He peppered his remarks with references to “dozens of genders” and “gay parades.”

An effort to appeal to right-wingers and social conservatives. It's remarkable how much they have changed their assessment of Russia, without even bothering to acknowledge their previous hostility.

Ms. Stanovaya, the political analyst, said Mr. Putin appeared to be trying to harness worldwide anti-establishment sentiment.

“There’s now a sense that he is building an anti-Western coalition on a global scale,” she said. “He doesn’t think he’s been backed into a corner. He thinks he’s a witness to the birth of a new world.”

Mr. Putin himself said he was confident that eventually, the West would be forced to engage Russia and other world powers in talks on a future world order.

“I always believed, and believe, in the power of common sense,” Mr. Putin said. “I am therefore convinced that sooner or later, the new centers of the multipolar world order and the West will have to start a conversation of equals.”

 

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

The UN says it is vital not to imperil the deal, as Ukraine accuses Russia of "using a false pretext".

www.bbc.com

Can't say that I'm surprised; there was nothing that Russia got out of the deal (at least on the surface). The attack in Sevastopol is just a pretext to try to shift the blame to Ukraine. This might also mean more military presence in the black sea by Russia.

Russia is so weak! Russia announces that its leaving the grain shipment agreement. Then they warn that safe passage can't be guarantied anymore. Then the brave Ukranian ship captains just continued to sail on. Fuck the Russians they said. These unarmed slow barrages stood up to Putler, stared him down. Then Russia announced that they'd returned to the agreement. Here's the deal: yes Russia has great power. They could destroy the entire world if they launched their nukes. They have killed thousands of Ukranians, taken their land by force, stolen their grain, tractors and anything that is available. And they will continue to cause chaos. But they have 000 soft power. They've united most of Europe into an alliance designed to cage them in. Nothing will be easy for Russia in the future. The Ukranian ship crews defied Putler and are laughing at your face. Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when Putler realized how inept his navy has become.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Opinion | Putin Is Starting to Do What Won Him a War 7 Years Ago - The New York Times

In 2015, as Bashar al-Assad was losing his war to remain in power in Syria, he pleaded for, and got, Russian military intervention. President Barack Obama reacted with airy disdain.

“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire, and it won’t work,” Obama said that October.

It turned out differently. The Russian military, led by some of the same officers now commanding Putin’s war in Ukraine, achieved an unexpected victory over a brutalized people and a self-deluded American administration.

The key to Russia’s success was the deliberate, indiscriminate and massive slaughter of civilians. “Rescue workers in Aleppo reported that their cars and headquarters were among the first targets hit on Friday,” The Times’s Anne Barnard and Somini Sengupta reported in September 2016. “The effect was instant: Now, when people are buried in rubble, no one comes. Or it takes longer for them to arrive. Relatives are again exhuming relatives with their own hands.”

This is the approach that Putin, with the assistance of Iranian drones, is now adopting in Ukraine. On Monday, Russian strikes left 80 percent of Kyiv’s residents without water, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko’s estimate. Dozens of energy facilities have also been hit. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates that as many as 130,000 buildings have been destroyed in Russian attacks since the war began, including 2,400 schools.

The strategy is clear. Putin’s armies might be falling back in the field. But if he can freeze, starve and terrorize Ukraine’s people by going after their water supplies and energy infrastructure — while waiting for winter to blunt Ukraine’s advance — he might still be able to force Kyiv to accept some sort of armistice, leaving him in possession of most of his conquests.

That seems to fit.

Ukraine is not Syria

 

[Jayjay]

Opinion | Putin Is Starting to Do What Won Him a War 7 Years Ago - The New York Times

In 2015, as Bashar al-Assad was losing his war to remain in power in Syria, he pleaded for, and got, Russian military intervention. President Barack Obama reacted with airy disdain.

“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire, and it won’t work,” Obama said that October.

It turned out differently. The Russian military, led by some of the same officers now commanding Putin’s war in Ukraine, achieved an unexpected victory over a brutalized people and a self-deluded American administration.

The key to Russia’s success was the deliberate, indiscriminate and massive slaughter of civilians. “Rescue workers in Aleppo reported that their cars and headquarters were among the first targets hit on Friday,” The Times’s Anne Barnard and Somini Sengupta reported in September 2016. “The effect was instant: Now, when people are buried in rubble, no one comes. Or it takes longer for them to arrive. Relatives are again exhuming relatives with their own hands.”

This is the approach that Putin, with the assistance of Iranian drones, is now adopting in Ukraine. On Monday, Russian strikes left 80 percent of Kyiv’s residents without water, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko’s estimate. Dozens of energy facilities have also been hit. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates that as many as 130,000 buildings have been destroyed in Russian attacks since the war began, including 2,400 schools.

The strategy is clear. Putin’s armies might be falling back in the field. But if he can freeze, starve and terrorize Ukraine’s people by going after their water supplies and energy infrastructure — while waiting for winter to blunt Ukraine’s advance — he might still be able to force Kyiv to accept some sort of armistice, leaving him in possession of most of his conquests.

That seems to fit.

Ukraine is not Syria

But Russia is Russia.

It seems unlikely that Ukraine can stop Russia's attacks on its infrastructure, because there's no way to have a full SAM battery protecting every power station, dam, water supply, or transformer. Even repairing current damage will take years. I don't think it will win the war, but it will make lives of Ukrainians very miserable for a long time, and may eventually start to erode Ukraine's resolve and make it more amenable to a compromise. But that's still several months away.

Kherson looks interesting. On one hand there are indications that Russia is withdrawing after all:



... but there have been just as many clues recently that it was just moving more troops to the right bank. So I don't know. Are they withdrawing and trying to make it look like they're not? Or is it a trap? Should we ask admiral Ackbar?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It seems unlikely that Ukraine can stop Russia's attacks on its infrastructure, because there's no way to have a full SAM battery protecting every power station, dam, water supply, or transformer.

What works for the goose works for the gander. Ukraine needs to do the same to Russia. If Ukraine does not respond in kind Putin is enabled and will continue with more of the same. He needs a good punch in the mouth and Ukraine is capable of delivering one. Syria was not.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems unlikely that Ukraine can stop Russia's attacks on its infrastructure, because there's no way to have a full SAM battery protecting every power station, dam, water supply, or transformer.

What works for the goose works for the gander. Ukraine needs to do the same to Russia. If Ukraine does not respond in kind Putin is enabled and will continue with more of the same. He needs a good punch in the mouth and Ukraine is capable of delivering one. Syria was not.

First, Ukraine can't do the same with Russia. Russia is huge, and there is no way to cripple Russia's entire electric network the way Russia is doing to Ukraine. At best, Ukraine can take a few cheap shots near the border, or isolated incidents of sabotage elsewhere. But these are completely irrelevant snipes that don't inconvenience the regular Russian living in St. Petersburg or Moscow in any way. Meanwhile most cities in Ukraine are under rolling blackouts and 80% of Kyiv is without water. Ukraine has no way to cause such damage to Russia, and never will.

Ukraine can do a little bit of the same to the occupied territories. But does Putin give a shit if Mariupol or Severodonetsk is without water? Hell no. It's just more material for propagandists to show how the evil nazis are keeping Russians down.

Second, I don't think that Ukraine should strike Russian civilian targets even if it could, e.g. if it were to get its hands on longer-range ATACMS rockets or other systems that could hit targets deep in Russia. These tactics are deplorable and going tit for tat against civilian infra isn't going to help win the war. Ukraine needs to save its rockets against military targets and concentrate on putting Russian soldiers in body bags.

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

It seems unlikely that Ukraine can stop Russia's attacks on its infrastructure, because there's no way to have a full SAM battery protecting every power station, dam, water supply, or transformer.

What works for the goose works for the gander. Ukraine needs to do the same to Russia. If Ukraine does not respond in kind Putin is enabled and will continue with more of the same. He needs a good punch in the mouth and Ukraine is capable of delivering one. Syria was not.

Ukraine needs the right tools. At least enable Ukraine to hit legitimate military targets within Russia. We're not going to get rid of Putin with half measures. At this stage of the game, Russian are aware enough to know, Ukrainian strikes within Russia are as much Putin's fault as it is Ukraine's. This passivity of Biden's pisses me off. Perhaps I'm just anxious because little has happened recently but this bloody stalemate shit where Ukrainian civilians are constantly terrorized has got to stop.

 

[ZiprHead]

‘Too loud to be true’: Is Russia setting a trap in Kherson?

Ukrainian troops are expected to make a bid for Kherson, one of four partially occupied provinces Russia annexed.

www.aljazeera.com

Very interesting read.

 

[Jayjay]

‘Too loud to be true’: Is Russia setting a trap in Kherson?

Ukrainian troops are expected to make a bid for Kherson, one of four partially occupied provinces Russia annexed.

www.aljazeera.com

Very interesting read.

Indeed.

Another analyst said Ukraine’s stalled advance reflects its manpower shortages – and its increasingly cautious strategy of inching forward small groups.

“It can advance only after identifying sizeable breaches in the Russian defence,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Russia researcher at Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.

Almost daily, the Ukrainian army suffers heavy losses, according to Russian reports, but keeps looking for new “holes”, he said.

“Such holes appear as a result of effective artillery fire or operation of drones, so, there are chances” for further gains, he said.

However, Russia promptly fills the holes with thousands of newly-mobilised troops even though they have next to no training and combat experience.

“That’s why Ukraine keeps hoping that its push-out tactics of hitting the rear, headquarters and the destruction of enemy manpower on the front line with artillery or drones that drop little bombs right on the soldiers’ heads will gradually work,” Mitrokhin said.

This is why the mobilization is effective despite all its flaws.

 

[Jayjay]

Despite the Russian missiles, kamikaze drones, mobilization and all that, this is the biggest threat to Ukraine:

 

[lpetrich]

What a turnaround for the Republican Party.

Kevin McCarthy’s ugly new Ukraine threats should prod Democrats to act | U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly

This all started when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy let the truth slip in an interview with Punchbowl News. “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy said.

...
White House aides note that well-placed Republicans support continuing military aid to Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) backs it, and so does Rep. Michael McCaul, who would chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee in a GOP House. McCaul told Bloomberg News that there’s still “bipartisan support” for Ukraine aid.

It’s true that many Republicans full-throatedly support the Ukrainian cause. A large majority of Republicans have so far voted for tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine aid. But 57 House Republicans voted against it. And a Democrat points out that a number of House GOP candidates — see here, here, and here — have opposed more funding, too.

It’s indisputable that the Republican Party is divided on this question. As The Post’s Eugene Scott notes, several GOP Senate candidates in the MAGA mold have signaled opposition. Now that McCarthy has signaled that aid may be in trouble, with influential MAGA Republicans like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene opposing it, the GOP divide could worsen if the House MAGA caucus grows.

 

[lpetrich]

Cheney slams ‘pro-Putin’ McCarthy over Ukraine funding threat - POLITICO
That's Liz Cheney

“Look, the speaker is second in line to the presidency,” Cheney said. “At every moment since, frankly, the aftermath of the election in 2020, when Minority Leader McCarthy has had the opportunity to do the right thing, or do something that serves his own political purpose, he always chooses to serve his own political purpose.

“Such as the aid to Ukraine, the idea that the party is now no longer going to support the Ukrainian people. For somebody who has the picture of Ronald Reagan on his wall in his office in the Capitol, the notion that now Kevin McCarthy is going to make himself the leader of the pro-Putin wing of my party is just a stunning thing.”

Cheney, a staunch foreign policy hawk, added: “It’s dangerous. He knows better. But the fact that he’s willing to go down the path of suggesting that America will no longer stand for freedom, I think tells you he’s willing to sacrifice everything for his own political gain.”

I marvel at what Putin-lovers many right-wingers are. Even those old enough to have lived through the last years of the Soviet Union.

 

[steve_bank]

The reports from Ukraine sound grim. Power and water utilities are being destroyed.

Whatever words we use to descrbe Putin they are not enough to describe such a modern genocidal psychopathic leader. Stalin and Mao pale in comparison.

Putin is willing to starve the world.