How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I marvel at what Putin-lovers many right-wingers are. Even those old enough to have lived through the last years of the Soviet Union.

There is certainly nothing to marvel at. They were Hitler lovers 80 years ago. Some things do not change. They represent the anti-democratic, conservative wing of the GOP and they are the enemy of free peoples of this planet. The parallels between Putin and Hitler are striking. To say that it is unfortunate that people living in a democratic state do not appreciate the situation is an understatement but certainly not surprising.

 

[lpetrich]

Inside the House GOP effort to keep weapons flowing to Ukraine | CNN Politics

After House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy suggested last week that Republicans might pull back funding for Ukraine next year if they take the majority, the GOP leader has worked behind the scenes to reassure national security leaders in his conference that he wasn’t planning to abandon Ukraine aid and was just calling for greater oversight of any federal dollars, sources told CNN.

...
“McCarthy was not saying, ‘We wouldn’t spend money.’ McCarthy was saying, ‘We’re gonna be accountable to the taxpayer for every dollar we spend,’” one GOP lawmaker familiar with McCarthy’s thinking told CNN. “A ‘blank check’ means that people get whatever they ask for. What we’re saying is there’s going to be some thought, there’s going to be accountability, and taxpayer dollars are going to be used appropriately.”

...
The anti-aid crowd also has influential voices like Fox’s Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. who have advocated for cutting off aid to Ukraine altogether.

“They’re strong. Amongst Republicans, I call it the ‘Tucker Carlson’ effect,” the lawmaker said of House GOP skeptics. “I love Tucker on other issues, but he’s wrong on this. He’s listening to Russia disinformation. And he’s creating problems for us in our districts.”

There is another factor that may be involved here. The military-industrial complex. I've seen the theory that the US MIC likes US military aid to Israel because Israel's military adventures provide lots of real-world testing of US weapons systems. The same is likely true of Ukraine, and that may explain why not just the US, but also Europeans have been aiding Ukraine -- and Europeans have their own MIC. The war there is offering some great tests of air-defense systems, for instance.

 

[steve_bank]

I don't doubt that is part of it. Israel's Iron Dome was a joint US-Israel project.

Trump selling adduced jets to SA creates jobs over here.

Ieaq and Afghanistan were windfalls for defense companies and military contractors. Dick Cheney and the Halliburton corruption.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine it is the same as allowing Hitler to succeed in his early takeovers. The U.S. and the free world finally came to its senses and recognized the danger this maniac posed. The question is how long it will take today for people to wake up. That is all that matters, just as it did leading up to WW2.

 

[steve_bank]

If Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine it is the same as allowing Hitler to succeed in his early takeovers. The U.S. and the free world finally came to its senses and recognized the danger this maniac posed. The question is how long it will take today for people to wake up. That is all that matters, just as it did leading up to WW2.

Strongly agree.

I heard recent commentary on the failed western policy on Russia and China.

If we open trade and their satnddrds of living rise and are exposed to western political philosophy they will become like us.

 

[lpetrich]

Svatove and Kherson continue to be slow going for Ukraine, with nothing much to report. I think that Ukr's military commanders are careful to avoid risking their troops too much.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that Mala Seidemynukha has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

That's a little place to the NE of Kherson along the N border of Russia's occupation zone there. It's a little to the SW of Ukraine's liberated zone there.

Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove — Meduza - "Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove"
Noting
Взвод. После разгрома под Сватово 13 мобилизованных спрятались в пустом доме, чтобы не возвращаться на передовую — «Медиазона» публикует их рассказ - Google Translate: "Platoon. After the defeat near Svatovo, 13 mobilized hid in an empty house so as not to return to the front line - Mediazona publishes their story"

 

[lpetrich]

According to his sister, one of them received a draft letter on September 22. On September 25, he was sent, straight from the draft office, to the army base in Alabino, a village on the outskirts of Naro-Fominsk, a town in the Moscow region. Over the several days he spent there, he was able to buy himself a uniform and all the other essential gear.

He had to buy his own equipment?

Then Alabino - Nikitovka near Belgorod - Khokhlovo - Luhansk region - 1st platoon, 2nd company, 15th motorized rifle regiment, "elite" Taman Division, stationed in Naro-Fominsk, a little SW of Moscow.

By October 9, they had arrived in the vicinity of Svatove, a Ukrainian city in the Luhansk region. There, the command deposited them in a “small grove,” leaving them with a non-working radio, so that the troops had no communication “either with the headquarters, the commander, or the Second or Third platoons.” All in all, there were 30 of them in position, including one BMP mechanic-driver who had never seen his combat vehicle.

In one of the two videos they made, the soldiers explained that they were barely armed. They had machine guns, but no hand grenades, and no rounds for the RPG launcher. One of the machine guns was broken. Soon the company commander ordered the platoon to “meet the enemy column.” The soldiers objected that they’d never fired an RPG, to which the commander replied: “Why don’t I send you ahead to the first line, and you’ll warm up your weapons right there.”

What kind of army is this?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Svatove and Kherson continue to be slow going for Ukraine, with nothing much to report. I think that Ukr's military commanders are careful to avoid risking their troops too much.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that Mala Seidemynukha has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

That's a little place to the NE of Kherson along the N border of Russia's occupation zone there. It's a little to the SW of Ukraine's liberated zone there.

Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove — Meduza - "Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove"
Noting
Взвод. После разгрома под Сватово 13 мобилизованных спрятались в пустом доме, чтобы не возвращаться на передовую — «Медиазона» публикует их рассказ - Google Translate: "Platoon. After the defeat near Svatovo, 13 mobilized hid in an empty house so as not to return to the front line - Mediazona publishes their story"

Yikes. Good links. Interesting reading. Feel bad about the conscripted Russian soldiers. I really think that everything depends on Kherson. If Ukraine can take Kherson (the source of water for the region); Russia will have to negotiate in good faith if it wants Crimea.

 

[lpetrich]

After a Ukrainian artillery attack, these troops and some other Russian ones retreated, including 4 Russian tanks.

The tank drivers asked the First platoon for a “spare machine gun” and a walkie-talkie — they, too, had no communication with their command.

After retreating some 20 - 25 km (12 - 15 mi), and suffering some artillery fire, only 15 were left. They came to a checkpoint of the "Luhansk People's Republic" (Russian initials: LPR).

The “LNR” men took away their weapons, bulletproof vests and helmets. Members of the platoon told them to “do what you want, just f*** off.”

On October 14, the group left the checkpoint. After walking a while, they met with a Russian armored vehicle, whose crew agreed to give them a lift to Svatove. There, they found an empty building and hid there, for fear that they might be ordered back to the front line. While at the “LNR” checkpoint, they’d overheard that officers often rip up the soldier’s military IDs when sending them ahead, writing them off as dead or missing in advance.

When this platoon left Svatove, it had only 13 troops left in it.

 

[Jayjay]

Svatove and Kherson continue to be slow going for Ukraine, with nothing much to report. I think that Ukr's military commanders are careful to avoid risking their troops too much.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that Mala Seidemynukha has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

That's a little place to the NE of Kherson along the N border of Russia's occupation zone there. It's a little to the SW of Ukraine's liberated zone there.

Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove — Meduza - "Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove"
Noting
Взвод. После разгрома под Сватово 13 мобилизованных спрятались в пустом доме, чтобы не возвращаться на передовую — «Медиазона» публикует их рассказ - Google Translate: "Platoon. After the defeat near Svatovo, 13 mobilized hid in an empty house so as not to return to the front line - Mediazona publishes their story"

Yikes. Good links. Interesting reading. Feel bad about the conscripted Russian soldiers. I really think that everything depends on Kherson. If Ukraine can take Kherson (the source of water for the region); Russia will have to negotiate in good faith if it wants Crimea.

When people say that Ukraine is about to take Kherson, they most likely mean Kherson city, not Kherson oblast. The Dnipro river forms a natural barrier that will be very hard for Ukraine to cross even if they manage to take the city on the right bank. In order to get to Crimea, Ukraine needs to push south from Zaporizhzhia and cut off the land bridge. so, I don't think losing Kherson would mean that Russia would have to negotiate for Crimea.

On the other hand I do think that Ukraine failing to take Kherson would mean that Russia will take Mykolaiv and Odessa sooner or later. Maybe not next day, or next year, but eventually. A Russian bridgehead on wrong side of Dnipro would be a permanent knife on Ukraine's throat.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Svatove and Kherson continue to be slow going for Ukraine, with nothing much to report. I think that Ukr's military commanders are careful to avoid risking their troops too much.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that Mala Seidemynukha has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

That's a little place to the NE of Kherson along the N border of Russia's occupation zone there. It's a little to the SW of Ukraine's liberated zone there.

Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove — Meduza - "Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove"
Noting
Взвод. После разгрома под Сватово 13 мобилизованных спрятались в пустом доме, чтобы не возвращаться на передовую — «Медиазона» публикует их рассказ - Google Translate: "Platoon. After the defeat near Svatovo, 13 mobilized hid in an empty house so as not to return to the front line - Mediazona publishes their story"

Yikes. Good links. Interesting reading. Feel bad about the conscripted Russian soldiers. I really think that everything depends on Kherson. If Ukraine can take Kherson (the source of water for the region); Russia will have to negotiate in good faith if it wants Crimea.

When people say that Ukraine is about to take Kherson, they most likely mean Kherson city, not Kherson oblast. The Dnipro river forms a natural barrier that will be very hard for Ukraine to cross even if they manage to take the city on the right bank. In order to get to Crimea, Ukraine needs to push south from Zaporizhzhia and cut off the land bridge. so, I don't think losing Kherson would mean that Russia would have to negotiate for Crimea.

On the other hand I do think that Ukraine failing to take Kherson would mean that Russia will take Mykolaiv and Odessa sooner or later. Maybe not next day, or next year, but eventually. A Russian bridgehead on wrong side of Dnipro would be a permanent knife on Ukraine's throat.

I don't disagree. But I've been saying since the very beginning of this thread that Putin invaded Ukraine in order to steal its water for Crimea (among other things). It's not that Ukraine can easier attack Crimea from Kherson, its more than they will have say in the water source to Crimea.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

When people say that Ukraine is about to take Kherson, they most likely mean Kherson city, not Kherson oblast. The Dnipro river forms a natural barrier that will be very hard for Ukraine to cross even if they manage to take the city on the right bank. In order to get to Crimea, Ukraine needs to push south from Zaporizhzhia and cut off the land bridge. so, I don't think losing Kherson would mean that Russia would have to negotiate for Crimea.

On the other hand I do think that Ukraine failing to take Kherson would mean that Russia will take Mykolaiv and Odessa sooner or later. Maybe not next day, or next year, but eventually. A Russian bridgehead on wrong side of Dnipro would be a permanent knife on Ukraine's throat.

I don't disagree. But I've been saying since the very beginning of this thread that Putin invaded Ukraine in order to steal its water for Crimea (among other things). It's not that Ukraine can easier attack Crimea from Kherson, its more than they will have say in the water source to Crimea.

Putin tried to take all of Ukraine. Remember the "attempt" on Kviv that they had to give up on when Ukraine refused to just fold?

 

[Jayjay]

Svatove and Kherson continue to be slow going for Ukraine, with nothing much to report. I think that Ukr's military commanders are careful to avoid risking their troops too much.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that Mala Seidemynukha has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

That's a little place to the NE of Kherson along the N border of Russia's occupation zone there. It's a little to the SW of Ukraine's liberated zone there.

Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove — Meduza - "Written off in advance How an untrained and unarmed ‘platoon’ of new conscripts from Moscow was decimated near Svatove"
Noting
Взвод. После разгрома под Сватово 13 мобилизованных спрятались в пустом доме, чтобы не возвращаться на передовую — «Медиазона» публикует их рассказ - Google Translate: "Platoon. After the defeat near Svatovo, 13 mobilized hid in an empty house so as not to return to the front line - Mediazona publishes their story"

Yikes. Good links. Interesting reading. Feel bad about the conscripted Russian soldiers. I really think that everything depends on Kherson. If Ukraine can take Kherson (the source of water for the region); Russia will have to negotiate in good faith if it wants Crimea.

When people say that Ukraine is about to take Kherson, they most likely mean Kherson city, not Kherson oblast. The Dnipro river forms a natural barrier that will be very hard for Ukraine to cross even if they manage to take the city on the right bank. In order to get to Crimea, Ukraine needs to push south from Zaporizhzhia and cut off the land bridge. so, I don't think losing Kherson would mean that Russia would have to negotiate for Crimea.

On the other hand I do think that Ukraine failing to take Kherson would mean that Russia will take Mykolaiv and Odessa sooner or later. Maybe not next day, or next year, but eventually. A Russian bridgehead on wrong side of Dnipro would be a permanent knife on Ukraine's throat.

I don't disagree. But I've been saying since the very beginning of this thread that Putin invaded Ukraine in order to steal its water for Crimea (among other things). It's not that Ukraine can easier attack Crimea from Kherson, its more than they will have say in the water source to Crimea.

Maybe. But the channel is on the Russian side of the reservoir, so I'm not sure if Ukraine taking the right bank would automatically give Ukraine the ability to cut it off. Unless either side blows up the dam.

 

[steve_bank]

It is more like Putin seized Crimea to test the west's responses. There was little said.

After that he began causing trouble on the border for a long time before an invasion. Remember the Ukrainian revolution or coup forced the pro Putin leader to flee to Russia.

It was economics. Putin wanted Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation economy. Ukraine negotiating trade with Europe and talk of Joining NATO probably sent Putin bouncing off the walls.

 

[Jayjay]

It is more like Putin seized Crimea to test the west's responses. There was little said.

After that he began causing trouble on the border for a long time before an invasion. Remember the Ukrainian revolution or coup forced the pro Putin leader to flee to Russia.

You got the sequence of events backwards. Ousting Yanukovich was what triggered Putin to seize Crimea (though obviously he had planned to do so long time in advance).

It was economics. Putin wanted Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation economy. Ukraine negotiating trade with Europe and talk of Joining NATO probably sent Putin bouncing off the walls.

Yup. Mostly about economy though. Ukraine's bid to join NATO wasn't popular in the country and was just a hobby project of a few pro-western politicians. And even many NATO countries weren't interested. The EU association treaty though that Yanukovich refused to sign is what caused the protests in 2013-2014. As always: "it was the economy, stupid".

 

[Loren Pechtel]

In one of the two videos they made, the soldiers explained that they were barely armed. They had machine guns, but no hand grenades, and no rounds for the RPG launcher. One of the machine guns was broken. Soon the company commander ordered the platoon to “meet the enemy column.” The soldiers objected that they’d never fired an RPG, to which the commander replied: “Why don’t I send you ahead to the first line, and you’ll warm up your weapons right there.”

What kind of army is this?

Recon by sending in the useless recruits. In dying they expose where the enemy is hidden so the halfway useful troops don't get caught in ambushes.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Untrained, poorly armed troops in large numbers to dig trenches. All they are good for. With large numbers of troops, one has to feed them and support them with munitions, etc. If one cannot do that, you are wasting what supplies you have, and soldiers.

If this continues, I predict more desertions, mass surrenders, revolts and fraggings of Russian officers.

 

[lpetrich]

Michael MacKay on Twitter: "Poland sent over 270 tanks to Ukraine – one-third of the complement in its army. The Czech Republic sent about 50 tanks – 42% of its arsenal. Thank you.
NATO members have over 18 thousand tanks. None of them are involved in combat operations. They're needed in Ukraine." / Twitter

Skeiron on Twitter: "@mhmck The Czech Republic is getting 14 Leopard 2A4 and one recovery vehicle donated by Germany as a replacement for T-72 sent to Ukraine. It’s going to switch to modern western tanks and plans to buy Leopard 2A7+. Poland is also switching its army to modern western tanks." / Twitter
So Ukraine is getting a lot of Soviet-era hand-me-downs.


Törteli Dénes on Twitter: "️Mobik intercepted call: the mobik in the Kreminna area reveals to his friend that Chechens are guarding the borders, not allowing mobiks to go out even for basic shopping. Source: @wartranslated #Hungary #DenesTorteli #Ukraine #Czechy #Germany (vid link)" / Twitter
They are also low on supplies.

More slow advance.
Törteli Dénes on Twitter: "️The Ukrainian pressure on the Svatove-Kreminna front gets stronger. This battle, where at least one Russian tank got destroyed, occurred next to Ploshchanka. Ukrainian troops provenly striking deeper into Russian-occupied Luhansk. #Svatove #Kreminna Source: @Tendar (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[Harry Bosch]

Untrained, poorly armed troops in large numbers to dig trenches. All they are good for. With large numbers of troops, one has to feed them and support them with munitions, etc. If one cannot do that, you are wasting what supplies you have, and soldiers.

If this continues, I predict more desertions, mass surrenders, revolts and fraggings of Russian officers.

Unfortunately, they will be effective in Kherson. Putler will park them in houses which will dramatically slow down Ukrainian army. It will force thousands of unnecessary deaths and destruction of the city.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine is recieving advanced short range anti-shipping missles from Sweden. And will cut electricity and water to Crimea. They will target artillery, and ant-aircraft sites. Cut supply routes from the East. And let Russian soldiers in Crimea rot on the vine. If the West was smart, they would give Ukraine long range anti-ship missiles and let Crimea act as bait to destroy Russia's Black Sea fleet.