How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Ukraine is recieving advanced short range anti-shipping missles from Sweden. And will cut electricity and water to Crimea. They will target artillery, and ant-aircraft sites. Cut supply routes from the East. And let Russian soldiers in Crimea rot on the vine. If the West was smart, they would give Ukraine long range anti-ship missiles and let Crimea act as bait to destroy Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Not sure if Ukraine could cut Crimea off that easily. They could maybe target electric network, but the water supply is hard to disrupt unless either Ukraine can get to left bank of Dnipro (in which case Crimea would be least of Russia's problems), or either Ukraine or Russia blows up the Nova Kakhovka dam and lowers the water level in the reservoir that the canal is connected to.

Also, Crimea was disconnected from Ukrainian grid and water for 8 years since 2014. Presumably they are connected to Russian electric grid via Kerch straight, so that's secure, and can manage with less water indefinitely.

I agree about need for long range weapons. Ukraine has dispensed its storage of Soviet-era Tochka missiles (range 120km), and ATACMS (300km) would fill in that hole. The US could put same restrictions on their use only on Ukrainian territory as they have on M30/M31 rockets (85km). There are plenty of valid targets in Crimea and Donetsk that can't be currently reached. I guess one consideration might be that a singular ATACMS missile is too easy to intercept by Russian air defense and as such not as useful as 6-rocket M30/31 pods.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The Mosvka, Russia's flag ship in the Black Sea was easily sunk as its anti-missile and aircraft defenses were nonoperational. Mind you this was their flagship, their supposedly invunerable war ship. It turns out, it was barely operational. One then wonders about the states of readyness of the rest of their fleet.

Google youtube, lazerpig, what sank the Moskva for details.

 

[lpetrich]

Under Russia’s Rain of Fire in Kherson, Ukrainians Sneak Forward - The New York Times - "The commander of a Ukrainian reconnaissance unit spearheading the counterattack in the southern region of Kherson explained how his team helped breach defenses he described as frighteningly dense."

Ukraine has made dramatic gains with its recent counteroffensive in the south, thanks in part to a much strengthened artillery, but also to small specialized groups like this reconnaissance team penetrating enemy lines. Russian troops, however, have bolstered their defenses with reinforcements and Ukrainian troops still face a formidable task in breaking Russia’s hold on this region, the reconnaissance commander said.

“They have many more than us, for every one of us they have 30,” he said. “They brought many into the Kherson region, very many, but despite everything, we are managing.”

 

[lpetrich]

Russia Rejoins Grain Deal, but Warns It Could Pull Out Again - The New York Times - "The agreement allows Ukraine, a major food producer, to export grain by sea, easing the threat of famine in other countries."

Good that Russia backed down on that one.

U.S., Allies Vow to Protect Ukraine’s Infrastructure From Russian Attacks - The New York Times - "Top diplomats from the Group of 7 nations discussed sending more air defense equipment to Ukraine and agreed to coordinate on rebuilding its infrastructure."

 

[lpetrich]

Michael MacKay on Twitter: "The Armed Forces of Ukraine ..." / Twitter

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced to the village of Ploshchanka in Luhansk region and are 2 kilometres away from the Svatove-Kreminna highway in this sector of the battlefront.

The Russian fascist invaders shelled Ukrainian positions near Ploshchanka today.

As well as Ploshchanka, the rashists shelled Makiyivka and Nevs'ke in Luhansk region, Kyslivka and Tabayivka in Kharkiv region, and Yampolivka and Tors'ke in Donetsk region.

–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 18:00 on 5 November 2022

Ploshchanka is halfway between Svatove and Kreminna and only 2.3 km / 1.4 mi west of Hwy. 66.

TheLvivJournal on Twitter: "Bakhmut. The remains of the ruzZian army after their attempted breakthrough
#lviv #kherson #Bakhmut (vid links)" / Twitter
Showing lots of damaged Russian tanks.

NOËL on Twitter: "To the fronts, #Kherson
No map changes
Shelling from increased
Locals report that the police are unreachable by phone the whole day. Chaos and tension is rising in #Kherson
In Nova Kakhovka the AFU targeted a building holding 200 Russian soldiers, killing many.
(pic link)" / Twitter
Showing a picture of the NE end of the Russian occupation zone on the W bank of the Dnipro River.

Seems that Ukraine is using siege tactics and advancing only little by little.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Untrained, poorly armed troops in large numbers to dig trenches. All they are good for. With large numbers of troops, one has to feed them and support them with munitions, etc. If one cannot do that, you are wasting what supplies you have, and soldiers.

If this continues, I predict more desertions, mass surrenders, revolts and fraggings of Russian officers.

Unfortunately, they will be effective in Kherson. Putler will park them in houses which will dramatically slow down Ukrainian army. It will force thousands of unnecessary deaths and destruction of the city.

Russia is kidnapping the civilians. Why should Ukraine attack the city? Just bypass it, let them starve.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine is recieving advanced short range anti-shipping missles from Sweden. And will cut electricity and water to Crimea. They will target artillery, and ant-aircraft sites. Cut supply routes from the East. And let Russian soldiers in Crimea rot on the vine. If the West was smart, they would give Ukraine long range anti-ship missiles and let Crimea act as bait to destroy Russia's Black Sea fleet.

How much non-sub Black Sea fleet is even left? And anti-ship missiles can't kill subs.

 

[bilby]

anti-ship missiles can't kill subs.

Sure they can, whenever the sub is on the surface.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine is recieving advanced short range anti-shipping missles from Sweden. And will cut electricity and water to Crimea. They will target artillery, and ant-aircraft sites. Cut supply routes from the East. And let Russian soldiers in Crimea rot on the vine. If the West was smart, they would give Ukraine long range anti-ship missiles and let Crimea act as bait to destroy Russia's Black Sea fleet.

How much non-sub Black Sea fleet is even left? And anti-ship missiles can't kill subs.

The Russians have already lost several ships. Including their Black Sea Flagship. So they have been staying out of range of Ukrai ian anti-ship missiles and drones. U.S. tracking makes it hard for Russia to avoid detection. And yes, Russia has subs. But if their big problem is landing troops and supplies to Crimea, these subs are pretty useless. It is possible much of Russia's navy is in bad condition, nowhere near combat readiness state. Ready to join that Piece Of The True Cross at the bottom of the sea.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

anti-ship missiles can't kill subs.

Sure they can, whenever the sub is on the surface.

But why would it hang out there? Subs reason for existence is to be underwater!

To hunt subs you either need a good sub of your own or you need basically total control of the airspace to operate helicopters. While there are ASW weapons on many ships they operate at a severe disadvantage--the sub can move up and down to take advantage of conditions, ships are very limited at doing so. There's a reason submariners divide the world into "subs" and "targets".

The Russians have already lost several ships. Including their Black Sea Flagship. So they have been staying out of range of Ukrai ian anti-ship missiles and drones. U.S. tracking makes it hard for Russia to avoid detection. And yes, Russia has subs. But if their big problem is landing troops and supplies to Crimea, these subs are pretty useless. It is possible much of Russia's navy is in bad condition, nowhere near combat readiness state. Ready to join that Piece Of The True Cross at the bottom of the sea.

About the only value to killing the Black Sea fleet is to keep them from using their missiles against Ukraine--and by now how many do they even have left?? The Moskova posed a major SAM threat, it was worth killing. Now, however, the fleet basically hides. That drone boat attack was of far more use in provoking a reaction (Russia diverting assets to protect the ships) than in actually reducing Russian firepower.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukrainian News24 on Twitter: "Sisters in Arms..
#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar (pic link)" / Twitter
Showing two female Ukrainian soldiers near what looks like a SUV.

NOËL on Twitter: "#Svatove
No map changes
Heavy fighting is reported around Kuzemivka area.
AFU hit Svatove overnight with HIMARS missiles, inflicting serious damage to enemy brigades.
(pic link)" / Twitter


National resistance: Ukraine on Twitter: " He prepared #Ukraine for defense against #russia: modernized army, abolishing the Soviet military model. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, iron general, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
And he is our hero
#UkrainianArmy (vid link)" / Twitter

I mention that because he moved to a more Western-style military model, while Russia stuck with the Soviet style of organization.

Ukraine's Success Was a Surprise Only to the Russians > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News - Sept. 13, 2022 - "Ukraine's success in its counteroffensive against the Russian invasion did not surprise its allies and partners, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said."

"Certainly, since the beginning of Russia's invasion into Ukraine, we've seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability and their ability to use their warfighting capabilities to great effect," Ryder said during a Pentagon news conference. "So, it's not surprising to us that they have pushed as quickly as they have."

The Ukrainian military also took advantage of military opportunities that presented themselves on the battlefield. The Kharkiv counteroffensive is proof of that, the general said.

Western weapons and supplies played a part in the success of the counteroffensive ...

In the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces are using the equipment they have to great effect, and they have changed the dynamics on the battlefield, the general said. The Ukrainian military also has learned as the conflict has continued. The Ukrainian military adopted the NATO battle tactics, embracing combined arms as a way of war. The Ukrainian military has been able to adapt older, Soviet-era military equipment with these new tactics and outfight the Russians. Ukrainian service members also learned western systems like the M777 howitzers and HIMARS and drones and more and were able to use them with the older systems and integrate them into the battle tactics they are using.

 

[bilby]

But why would it hang out there? Subs reason for existence is to be underwater!

And yet all of them surface occasionally, if only to change crews and load food.

Your analysis is pretty accurate for nuclear powered boats, whose only need to surface is those two activities, and whose submerged patrol time is therefore limited only by food supplies.

Crappy Russian subs likely also surface frequently to deal with mechanical breakdowns.

And according to Jane's Fighting Ships, all seven of the submarines in Russia's Black Sea Fleet are diesels - six Project 636 'Improved Kilo' boats commissioned between 2014 and 2016; and one older Project 877 'Kilo' class boat commissioned in 1990.

All are based on a 1970s Soviet design, and like any diesel-electric boat, need to run on the surface for a large part of any patrol to charge their batteries. Which wasn't a problem in the 1930s, when you could hide in darkness or fog, but since the widespread use of RADAR, is a major handicap (and the reason why the Russians use nuclear powered subs in waters where they expect to encounter serious opponents).

The actual subs Russia has in the Black Sea are certainly vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles, and if Ukraine sank one a week, there'd be none left by Christmas.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine is recieving advanced short range anti-shipping missles from Sweden. And will cut electricity and water to Crimea. They will target artillery, and ant-aircraft sites. Cut supply routes from the East. And let Russian soldiers in Crimea rot on the vine. If the West was smart, they would give Ukraine long range anti-ship missiles and let Crimea act as bait to destroy Russia's Black Sea fleet.

How much non-sub Black Sea fleet is even left? And anti-ship missiles can't kill subs.

The Russians have already lost several ships. Including their Black Sea Flagship. So they have been staying out of range of Ukrai ian anti-ship missiles and drones. U.S. tracking makes it hard for Russia to avoid detection. And yes, Russia has subs. But if their big problem is landing troops and supplies to Crimea, these subs are pretty useless. It is possible much of Russia's navy is in bad condition, nowhere near combat readiness state. Ready to join that Piece Of The True Cross at the bottom of the sea.

No doubt the Rashists were counting on their mighty fleet to protect Crimea. That's just not possible. I wouldn't put it past the Ukrainians to presently be acquiring ordnance to deal with the submarines. They've done everything else so why not.

Iranian ballistic missiles are the next major threat. We shall find out how Ukraine and its backers deal with this.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But why would it hang out there? Subs reason for existence is to be underwater!

And yet all of them surface occasionally, if only to change crews and load food.

Your analysis is pretty accurate for nuclear powered boats, whose only need to surface is those two activities, and whose submerged patrol time is therefore limited only by food supplies.

Crappy Russian subs likely also surface frequently to deal with mechanical breakdowns.

And according to Jane's Fighting Ships, all seven of the submarines in Russia's Black Sea Fleet are diesels - six Project 636 'Improved Kilo' boats commissioned between 2014 and 2016; and one older Project 877 'Kilo' class boat commissioned in 1990.

All are based on a 1970s Soviet design, and like any diesel-electric boat, need to run on the surface for a large part of any patrol to charge their batteries. Which wasn't a problem in the 1930s, when you could hide in darkness or fog, but since the widespread use of RADAR, is a major handicap (and the reason why the Russians use nuclear powered subs in waters where they expect to encounter serious opponents).

The actual subs Russia has in the Black Sea are certainly vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles, and if Ukraine sank one a week, there'd be none left by Christmas.

They snorkel, they don't run on the surface. The snorkel isn't big enough to be targeted by an anti-ship missile.

 

[Jayjay]

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it's open to talks, Washington Post reports

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

(...)

The paper said U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war's effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

Didn't I say this months ago? This war will eventually be ended in negotiations. It's very shortsighted for Zelenskiy to draw red lines that he later has to back down on anyway.

 

[Patooka]

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it's open to talks, Washington Post reports

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

(...)

The paper said U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war's effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

Didn't I say this months ago? This war will eventually be ended in negotiations. It's very shortsighted for Zelenskiy to draw red lines that he later has to back down on anyway.

Another way to look at it is to put forth an initial position that you could walk back from later on. I'm not a fan of such games but when negotiating with someone like Putin, how else would you do it.

Keep in mind if Ukraine concedes any land that will simply guarantee that we are doing this all over again in 5 years time.

 

[SLD]

But why would it hang out there? Subs reason for existence is to be underwater!

And yet all of them surface occasionally, if only to change crews and load food.

Your analysis is pretty accurate for nuclear powered boats, whose only need to surface is those two activities, and whose submerged patrol time is therefore limited only by food supplies.

Crappy Russian subs likely also surface frequently to deal with mechanical breakdowns.

And according to Jane's Fighting Ships, all seven of the submarines in Russia's Black Sea Fleet are diesels - six Project 636 'Improved Kilo' boats commissioned between 2014 and 2016; and one older Project 877 'Kilo' class boat commissioned in 1990.

All are based on a 1970s Soviet design, and like any diesel-electric boat, need to run on the surface for a large part of any patrol to charge their batteries. Which wasn't a problem in the 1930s, when you could hide in darkness or fog, but since the widespread use of RADAR, is a major handicap (and the reason why the Russians use nuclear powered subs in waters where they expect to encounter serious opponents).

The actual subs Russia has in the Black Sea are certainly vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles, and if Ukraine sank one a week, there'd be none left by Christmas.

They snorkel, they don't run on the surface. The snorkel isn't big enough to be targeted by an anti-ship missile.

True, but right now they’re all moved away from Ukraine to Novorossiysk and are hanging around the port. For some reason they’re scared to engage. or more likely there just isn’t a role for them. They’re Kilo’s, they’re good for choke point defense against ships. Ukraine has no serious navy to speak of and unless Russia pulls out of the grain deal, they have no targets. They could shoot cruise missiles, but they’re just not needed.

 

[Copernicus]

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it's open to talks, Washington Post reports

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

(...)

The paper said U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war's effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

Didn't I say this months ago? This war will eventually be ended in negotiations. It's very shortsighted for Zelenskiy to draw red lines that he later has to back down on anyway.

But all we can see is public posturing, which necessarily has an effect on things such as national morale, troop morale, and foreign support. For Zelensky to start making peace overtures publicly would invite the Russian propaganda machine to go into high gear on how Ukraine is showing signs of crumbling to the inevitable. For Putin to do the same would also be exploited by Ukraine as evidence that Russia is starting to back down. These kinds of negotiations may already be taking place well out of sight of the public. What we see going on in public is usually intended for public consumption, not serious negotiation.

 

[blastula]

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it's open to talks, Washington Post reports

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

(...)

The paper said U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war's effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

Didn't I say this months ago? This war will eventually be ended in negotiations. It's very shortsighted for Zelenskiy to draw red lines that he later has to back down on anyway.

But whoever leaked this just made it pointless for Zelensky to show openness.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't know. I think a lot of this might be open diplomacy. Often, the message isn't for who we think it is. This could be an embarrassing leak for the West or a message to Russia saying "Don't expect the West to fatigue from our support of Ukraine." I think this weighs more heavily on the later as the US likely wouldn't have allowed this to leak. It would also provide Zelensky as looking strong and uber-committed for Ukraine. The message actually works on multiple levels.