How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

I'd say it is a decision point.

Should NATO run the Russian naval grain blovkade which Putin has reinstated?. It goes to show it is not possible to negotiate with Pitin, written agreements mean nothing.

I say yes. NATO should escort grain ships.

Yes, they should, but it's doubtful whether Turkey would allow it.

The deal is set to expire on Nov 19th, but Russia has already stopped inspecting the ships. I think Turkey and Ukraine should continue without the inspections until then and get as many ships to the port as possible. It's not their problem if Russia waives its right to check the ships and that should not be an excuse to delay them.

What happens after 19th is a mystery. If the grain ships keep going, there is a risk of Russian attack on one of them, and the civilian crews and companies who own the ships probably won't take the risk. And there's a question of whether Russia would actually attack a civilian vessel openly

"It wasn't a civilian vessel. It had weapons on it."

; most likely it would be disguised as something that gives Russia some level of deniability. For example, a submarine attack, and then saying it was an Ukrainian mine. But I personally don't think it'll come to that because the shipping will stop voluntarily.

There is a window of opportunity for NATO to step up by providing escorts to the ships, but it's up to Turkey.

Ain't this odd how the world of diplomacy plays out. The US not so chummy with a dictator in Turkey, who now calls the shots on ships to keep food shipping to the world. Trump leaving the Iran deal to make it all the easier for Russia to align with them. Diplomacy makes strange bedfellows. And currently, despite an endless supply of weapons and power, the US is pretty much incapable of helping the grain shipments without Turkey... which is run by a dictator who seized power via defense against a fake coup.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If aliens attacked our planet we would be aligning ourselves with anyone and everyone willing to fight the aliens. There's ideology and there's practicality. WW2 would have turned out very different had we not aligned ourselves with the USSR and its brutality.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'd say it is a decision point.

Should NATO run the Russian naval grain blovkade which Putin has reinstated?. It goes to show it is not possible to negotiate with Pitin, written agreements mean nothing.

I say yes. NATO should escort grain ships.

How? Turkey has closed the straight to any warship not based in the Black Sea.

 

[bilby]

I'd say it is a decision point.

Should NATO run the Russian naval grain blovkade which Putin has reinstated?. It goes to show it is not possible to negotiate with Pitin, written agreements mean nothing.

I say yes. NATO should escort grain ships.

How? Turkey has closed the straight to any warship not based in the Black Sea.

And they will close the strait, too, once they finish their poker game.

 

[Patooka]

Nobody besides Western establishment (bought by MIC) supports your aggression against Russia.
Not Latin America, not Asia, not Africa, not even Arab countries. Not even freaking Israel.

Look, I know it's now pretty fucking easy to point out all the times reality disagrees with Barbos' delusions (and considering he has openly stated he will not back up his assertions with any evidence I'm completely justified in saying that), but here is another example where Russia is deliberately starving Africa despite the "support" they give to Russia.

Russia halting Ukraine grain exports will most heavily hit those already facing extreme hunger, warns IRC - World

News and Press Release in English on World and 3 other countries about Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 30 Oct 2022 by IRC

reliefweb.int

Yeah, using starvation as a weapon. What a nice country. I now openly wish NATO was supporting Ukraine the way Barbos fantasises. Russia in the current state it is in has zero right to exist.

 

[Jayjay]

Nobody besides Western establishment (bought by MIC) supports your aggression against Russia.
Not Latin America, not Asia, not Africa, not even Arab countries. Not even freaking Israel.

Look, I know it's now pretty fucking easy to point out all the times reality disagrees with Barbos' delusions (and considering he has openly stated he will not back up his assertions with any evidence I'm completely justified in saying that), but here is another example where Russia is deliberately starving Africa despite the "support" they give to Russia.

Russia halting Ukraine grain exports will most heavily hit those already facing extreme hunger, warns IRC - World

News and Press Release in English on World and 3 other countries about Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 30 Oct 2022 by IRC

reliefweb.int

Yeah, using starvation as a weapon. What a nice country. I now openly wish NATO was supporting Ukraine the way Barbos fantasises. Russia in the current state it is in has zero right to exist.

But sometimes, if not most times, evil wins.

We should brace ourselves that Russia will come out on top in this war.

 

[Patooka]

We should brace ourselves that Russia will come out on top in this war.

Russia hasn't even entered the "occupying phase/mission accomplished" part of this war yet. The wheels are already falling off their puppet governments in Donbas and Luhansk. They've already lost. What they've expended is far more than what they could ever gain and are still more sanctioned than North Korea even. I have no doubt Putin can be petty and vindictive - there's fuck all chance he can be victorious.

 

[Tigers!]

I'd say it is a decision point.

Should NATO run the Russian naval grain blovkade which Putin has reinstated?. It goes to show it is not possible to negotiate with Pitin, written agreements mean nothing.

I say yes. NATO should escort grain ships.

Doesn't that bang up against the treaty of Montreux
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

 

[Jayjay]

I'd say it is a decision point.

Should NATO run the Russian naval grain blovkade which Putin has reinstated?. It goes to show it is not possible to negotiate with Pitin, written agreements mean nothing.

I say yes. NATO should escort grain ships.

Doesn't that bang up against the treaty of Montreux
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

That's why I said it's up to Turkey. It would have the power to interpret the treaty, and whether e.g. US warships would be allowed to enter or not. Technically USA is not at war, so there should be no problem.

One possibility would also be that Turkish ships provide the escort. But I doubt even that will happen.

 

[Jayjay]

We should brace ourselves that Russia will come out on top in this war.

Russia hasn't even entered the "occupying phase/mission accomplished" part of this war yet. The wheels are already falling off their puppet governments in Donbas and Luhansk. They've already lost. What they've expended is far more than what they could ever gain and are still more sanctioned than North Korea even. I have no doubt Putin can be petty and vindictive - there's fuck all chance he can be victorious.

I don't see any wheels falling off.

The complacent attitude in the west that "Russia has already lost" is the problem, as if we can just keep fiddling our thumbs while Russia solidifies its gains and prepares for the next war.

 

[Harry Bosch]

We should brace ourselves that Russia will come out on top in this war.

Russia hasn't even entered the "occupying phase/mission accomplished" part of this war yet. The wheels are already falling off their puppet governments in Donbas and Luhansk. They've already lost. What they've expended is far more than what they could ever gain and are still more sanctioned than North Korea even. I have no doubt Putin can be petty and vindictive - there's fuck all chance he can be victorious.

I don't see any wheels falling off.

The complacent attitude in the west that "Russia has already lost" is the problem, as if we can just keep fiddling our thumbs while Russia solidifies its gains and prepares for the next war.

I don't disagree with you entirely. Yes, the west can't become complacent. We need to continue doing whatever we can to keep helping Ukraine. We need to commit to a Mashall plan to help rebuild Ukraine after the invaders return home. And we need to rearm Ukraine after that to encourage Russians to remain home.

However, Russia has fucked itself. It will be significantly weaker after hostilities are over. The brain drain, people drain, loss of gas revenue, loss of weapon export revenue (no-one wants putrid Russian weapons anymore), and etc will have dramatic negative effects on Russia.

But you are right, that Russia is still winning in certain areas and still has great strength. I think that the war now pivots on Kherson. If Ukraine can retake Kherson - Russia will be in trouble. Russia isn't really offering serious negotiations. But if Kherson is taken, then Ukraine can seriously threaten Crimea. Putler really wants to keep Crimea. Until Kherson is retaken, not much value is talking with Russia.

 

[Elixir]

I don’t think we should be so dismissive of Jayjay’s gloomy outlook. He provides reasons behind his specific points and has a relatively front line seat.
I do hope Harry is right, but fear that the Russian bear, no matter how badly injured, can still create global havoc and wring concessions out of “the west” just by virtue of its sheer weight.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don’t think we should be so dismissive of Jayjay’s gloomy outlook. He provides reasons behind his specific points and has a relatively front line seat.
I do hope Harry is right, but fear that the Russian bear, no matter how badly injured, can still create global havoc and wring concessions out of “the west” just by virtue of its sheer weight.

The problem is Putin doesn't give a fuck about Russians. Though it could be noted that it appears the people being sent to fight might not be as much Russian as minorities. So, he'll continue to push on, which is easier than Ukraine's position as Ukraine hasn't struck at Russia yet. Russia is pounding their public infrastructure, no power, no water, no heat. The Russians put on the front lines are dying, but the ones at home aren't suffering anywhere near as much as the Ukrainians.

Putin is committing unquestionable war crimes at this time, much to barbos' enjoyment it seems. Until India and China stop buying oil/gas and Iran stops supplying drones, Putin found a way to make his war work.

 

[TV and credit cards]

This war is up to Biden. He controls what weapons can be sent to Ukrainian fighters. We have old F14s that they could use if only they had been trained. Ukraine has pilots ready to go. We have old F14s that are to be pulled from Okinawa and likely more in layup that could be used. We can give them longer range weapons that can hit Russian naval assets. We can hit Iranian manufacturing facilities.
We could stop or greatly curtail the suffering of Ukrainian civilians if it weren’t for Obama-lite.
Ukrainians are not giving up. There is no winning for Russia. It’s just a matter of how much we let them suffer.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Desperate Russian Soldiers Have a New Battle Strategy—Pretend to Be Dead

With minimal training and scant supplies, the Kremlin’s threadbare forces are going to bizarre lengths to protect themselves in Ukraine.

www.thedailybeast.com

New Russian conscripts are given training in digging trenches and not much more. They are sent to fronts without adequate supplies, weapons or food. They are dying in droves.

 

[SLD]

Interesting article on the possibility of a meltdown in Russia as the regime becomes overwhelmed with issues. The battlefield losses, the slow economic strangulation, the rising labor issues, subtle resistance to the regime and other factors could sap Putin’s abilities to manage them all, especially as he concentrates power in himself, requiring his personal decisions to solve these problems.

What Could Bring Putin Down?

Regime collapse is more likely than a coup.

www.foreignaffairs.com

The west needs to keep up the pressure on Russia, and take stronger action to damage the Russian economy. The war won’t likely end by some battlefield reverse, nor a coup in the Kremlin. But if there’s a complete meltdown of the Russian state, the war will fall by the wayside in the milieu.

 

[SLD]

Desperate Russian Soldiers Have a New Battle Strategy—Pretend to Be Dead

With minimal training and scant supplies, the Kremlin’s threadbare forces are going to bizarre lengths to protect themselves in Ukraine.

www.thedailybeast.com

New Russian conscripts are given training in digging trenches and not much more. They are sent to fronts without adequate supplies, weapons or food. They are dying in droves.

Yeah, but the problem for Ukraine comes from far away. The continued infrastructure attacks need to be stopped or otherwise defeated. It’s going to be a long winter for Ukraine, but like Germany 80 years ago, I don’t expect them to bend.

i did read another article about Ukrainians hitting targets deep inside Russia with certain special forces. But they were attacking helicopters near Latvia, not hitting missile sites near the Caspian Sea. They need to find ways to sabotage Russia’s abilities to launch ballistic missiles at them.

 

[SLD]

This war is up to Biden. He controls what weapons can be sent to Ukrainian fighters. We have old F14s that they could use if only they had been trained. Ukraine has pilots ready to go. We have old F14s that are to be pulled from Okinawa and likely more in layup that could be used. We can give them longer range weapons that can hit Russian naval assets. We can hit Iranian manufacturing facilities.
We could stop or greatly curtail the suffering of Ukrainian civilians if it weren’t for Obama-lite.
Ukrainians are not giving up. There is no winning for Russia. It’s just a matter of how much we let them suffer.

Yeah, we could do more. But not a whole lot more. We would be better off supplying them with better air and missile defense than F-14’s. Air power in this conflict hasn’t been particularly decisive because of the defense systems that Ukraine has. The F-14 is an air to air fighter. It’s just not particularly necessary. Maybe some older attack planes would be better. But I suspect that Russian anti air defenses are likely still strong as well. Not sure though.

The war is demonstrating that we’ve been successful in creating weapons that neutralize the previous wars offensive systems - armor and air power. We are almost back to WWI trench warfare and lines frozen for years. Ukraine still hasn’t made much headway around Kherson.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukrainians are not giving up.

"Never" giving up. I'm really impressed with Ukraine's fight. Those people can fuck you up good and they're clever. Long term, Putin or whoever succeeds this clown is just as fucked.