How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I thought Siberia was not a place one chooses to live.

In the news Brittney Griner is being sent to a forced labor camp. I would not expect her to survive the 8 or 9 year sentence.

Same old Stalinist-communist Russia.

Maybe Barbos is a cranky old demented die hard communist. Isolated in Siberia for too long.

 Siberia is a big place east of the Urals, not an isolated penal colony. There are plenty of cities and people there, many of whom spend their whole lives there without feeling a need to move to the western side of the country. My guess is that barbos is living somewhere in the Siberian Federal District, not in one of the more remote areas. Griner is going to be in a prison setting that is intended to make the lives of inmates miserable.

Then he gets all his information about the war through censored state controlled sources. He sees the war through an alternate reality, as the BBC called it, and only reads favorable accounts of the invasion.

Ukraine war: Russians kept in the dark by internet search​

When we searched for Bucha on Yandex - using a VPN as if based in Russia and typing in Russian - the top page of results made it look like the killings had never taken place.
Three of the nine top results were anonymous blog posts denying the involvement of Russian troops. The remaining six contained no independent reporting of the events.

The discovery of mass burial sites in October in the town of Lyman, after it was retaken from Russian forces, was also reflected on Yandex from a pro-Kremlin viewpoint. Several pro-Kremlin news stories blaming the deaths on Ukrainian "Nazis" were in the top 10 results.

We're all victims of bias but barbos is a victim of not only bias but state censorship. This easily explains the "popularity" of the war in Russia. Without state censorship it's pretty clear support for the war would vanish.

 

[lpetrich]

NOËL on Twitter: "I want to mention that #Kherson is not the only region positive things are happening. Keep an eye on #Svatove.
Godspeed heroes. (vid link)" / Twitter

Ukraine war: Kyiv claims major gains as Russia exits Kherson - BBC News - but the map does not show much change.

I'll believe that the Russian Army is gone from Kherson when I see it. Like seeing the Ukrainian Army having the free run of he city, moving freely in it.

 

[lpetrich]

Inside the capture of a Russian oligarch's superyacht - BBC News

The $325m (£307m) vessel had spent most of its life touring picturesque ports in the Mediterranean. Now, under the control of US authorities, it was destined for a drab concrete wharf in an industrial harbour.

It is the most ostentatious trophy claimed by a taskforce that - in the words of US President Joe Biden - was set up to pursue Russian oligarchs' "ill-begotten gains".

Then the boat itself.

The Amadea is roughly the length of a football pitch, with a helipad at one end and a 10-metre infinity pool at the other. Inside, there is a gym, beauty salon, cinema and wine cellar. There are luxury cabins for 16 guests, and accommodation for 36 crew to service their every need.

From a distance, it appears like the tip of an iceberg. Sleek, clean lines and a gleaming white facade seem to project an image of pristine purity. Simply keeping the Amadea shipshape comes at vast expense, with annual running costs estimated at £25m or more. But the ownership of the yacht, and the source of the wealth locked away in its marble floors and teak decking, remains disputed.

 Football pitch - soccer field - about 105 m / 115 yd long, about the length of an American football field.

Then how that yacht was tracked down. Its last pre-seizure journey was Mar 12: departs Caribbean island Antigua, Mar 17: goes through the Panama Canal, Mar 25: departs Manzanilla MX, Apr 12: arrives Fiji.

"The yacht was scheduled to leave for the Philippines within 48 hours, but the US believed its true destination was Vladivostok, a Russian port near the border with China and North Korea."

As that yacht was traveling, investigators looked for anything that could justify seizing it. They found something, and they seized the boat when it was at Fiji.

The article has some pictures captioned "The Amadea pictured in Abu Dhabi, Hawaii, Fiji and Turkey"

Inside, they found ornate furnishings, including chandeliers, gilded fittings and expensive artworks.

The taskforce is still calculating the total value of the luxuries, and the authenticity of the most prominent pieces are under investigation. Among them, one striking item stood out - a lavish object resembling a rare Fabergé egg. Only a few dozen were made for the Russian Imperial family, and they have come to symbolise opulence and power.

"Maybe it's a real Fabergé egg, maybe it's not a real Fabergé egg," Mr Adams said. "Time will tell."

Then a lot of litigation in Fiji courts about the boat.

After nearly two months tied-up beside shipping containers, the Fijian supreme court cleared the way for the US to seize the boat. It had become an international spectacle.

"Days before the Amadea arrived in Fiji, FBI agents with the Spanish police seized the $90m Tango, which is owned by sanctioned billionaire Viktor Vekselberg."

Several oligarch-linked superyachts are being held in the EU, and one in the UK, but the boats have been frozen, rather than seized.

"In principle, if you only freeze an asset it will return to the owner at some point; if it's seized, they lose it forever," said Tom Keatinge, the director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute.

While the US has long-standing laws to tackle sanctions evasion and seize assets, he says authorities in London and Brussels are "struggling to design legal mechanisms" that will allow them to seize assets that have initially been frozen.

 

[lpetrich]

As Western governments grapple with confiscating frozen assets, Mr Adams expects more countries to follow their "aggressive" approach to seizures.

"We want to make it as difficult as possible to exist as a person who can draw on the benefits of corruption in Russia and at the same time exist in fabulous luxury in the West," he said.

Good. What grotesque indulgence.

In the year before the invasion, the Amadea spent most of its time in Europe. It dropped anchor off the likes of Monaco, Marseilles and Montenegro, according to analysis for the BBC by Spire Global, a data and analytics provider.

Today, it is moored at the edge of a busy cargo terminal used by vast, rust-stained car carrier ships. A public park runs close to its berth, and locals have taken to sharing pictures of their glamorous new neighbour on social media.

"They should open it to the area's homeless," one person commented.

Another wrote: "I hope they sell it to help Ukrainian refugees."

 

[lpetrich]

Kirill Stremousov: Russian-appointed official in Kherson 'killed in road accident' | CNN

Stremousov, a Ukrainian who was quick to side with the Russian occupation when Kherson fell early in the invasion, had become one of the most vocal and outspoken of Russian appointees.

As deputy head of the Kherson region military administration, Stremousov was prominent in organizing and supporting the referendum on Kherson’s illegal annexation by Russia and more recently had been the driving force in the evacuation of civilians from the west bank in Kherson, as Ukrainian forces pushed toward the Dnipro.

...
Stremousov frequently took to Telegram to describe Ukrainian officials and forces as “Nazis” and “fascists.” But he was also critical of missteps by the Russian military. He had blamed the military setbacks in Kherson on “incompetent commanders” who had not been held accountable for their mistakes.

A Russian-appointed official died in a car crash in Ukraine's Kherson : NPR

Kirill Stremousov, the public face of the Russian occupation of Ukraine's Kherson region, has died in a car accident, according to the collaborationist government there.

...
"The 'Ukronazis,' pushed by their American masters, are forced to face certain death," he said in one recent video, repeating Moscow's false claims that Ukraine is run by U.S.-backed Nazis.

Will we be seeing conspiracy theories about his death?

 

[Harry Bosch]

As Western governments grapple with confiscating frozen assets, Mr Adams expects more countries to follow their "aggressive" approach to seizures.

"We want to make it as difficult as possible to exist as a person who can draw on the benefits of corruption in Russia and at the same time exist in fabulous luxury in the West," he said.

Good. What grotesque indulgence.

In the year before the invasion, the Amadea spent most of its time in Europe. It dropped anchor off the likes of Monaco, Marseilles and Montenegro, according to analysis for the BBC by Spire Global, a data and analytics provider.

Today, it is moored at the edge of a busy cargo terminal used by vast, rust-stained car carrier ships. A public park runs close to its berth, and locals have taken to sharing pictures of their glamorous new neighbour on social media.

"They should open it to the area's homeless," one person commented.

Another wrote: "I hope they sell it to help Ukrainian refugees."

Sell the Amadea. Give proceeds to Ukraine.

 

[lpetrich]

I'd posted earlier that I would not believe it unless I saw it, but I now see it.

Kherson: Ukrainian troops enter key city after Russian forces retreat, dealing blow to Putin | CNN

Images on social media, geolocated by CNN, show Ukrainian forces surrounded by residents in the city’s Shumenskyi district following Russia’s withdrawal from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River.

Citizens have also flooded the city’s central square, waving and raising Ukrainian flags, in other images geolocated by CNN.

Kherson was the only Ukrainian regional capital that Russian forces had captured since they invaded in February.

Ukrainian troops enter Kherson city after Russia retreats : NPR

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence agency later confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Kherson. "Kherson is returning under Ukrainian control and the Ukrainian military is entering the city," the agency wrote in a Facebook post.

The agency also urged Russian soldiers abandoned by their military leadership and still in Kherson to surrender — offering to guarantee their rights would be protected under a program called "I Want to Live."

"Your commanders ordered you to dress in civilian clothes and try to flee Kherson independently. Obviously, you won't succeed," the Ukrainian statement said.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I'd posted earlier that I would not believe it unless I saw it, but I now see it.

Kherson: Ukrainian troops enter key city after Russian forces retreat, dealing blow to Putin | CNN

Images on social media, geolocated by CNN, show Ukrainian forces surrounded by residents in the city’s Shumenskyi district following Russia’s withdrawal from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River.

Citizens have also flooded the city’s central square, waving and raising Ukrainian flags, in other images geolocated by CNN.

Kherson was the only Ukrainian regional capital that Russian forces had captured since they invaded in February.

Ukrainian troops enter Kherson city after Russia retreats : NPR

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence agency later confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Kherson. "Kherson is returning under Ukrainian control and the Ukrainian military is entering the city," the agency wrote in a Facebook post.

The agency also urged Russian soldiers abandoned by their military leadership and still in Kherson to surrender — offering to guarantee their rights would be protected under a program called "I Want to Live."

"Your commanders ordered you to dress in civilian clothes and try to flee Kherson independently. Obviously, you won't succeed," the Ukrainian statement said.

Great news. I'm sure that Russians have planted as many booby traps as possible. But positive news.

 

[SLD]

Another great Russian victory today! They successfully retreated from Kherson, territory that has been declared forever Russian, and turned it over to Ukraine. A few more victories like this and their troops will be home again! Everything is going to plan.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

One step forward, two steps back.

 

[TV and credit cards]

and a 10-metre infinity pool at the other.

???
A yacht with an infinity pool. How the does that even work? Does the pool have its own set of gyros and stabilizers to work independent of the ship?

 

[lpetrich]

Iuliia Mendel on Twitter: "This is how I can see my aunt from Kherson region for the first time in 9 months - in a video hugging a Ukrainian soldier. She even doesn’t know to have become an internet star (vid link)" / Twitter

Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "Kherson residents rolled out the huge blue and yellow Ukrainian flag - the one they came out to "greet" Russians with.
: H@evyi Kherson (vid link)" / Twitter

cedric mas on Twitter: "#Ukraine Le drapeau européen flotte sur Kherson.
Quel symbole pour tous les extrémistes antieuropéens !
Et quelle belle image pour un #11novembre ! (pix link)" / Twitter
Google Translate:

#Ukraine The European flag flies over Kherson.
What a symbol for all anti-European extremists!
And what a beautiful image for a #11novembre !

Showing Ukrainian and EU flags in front of a big building that seems like some administration building.

S E L on Twitter: "@CedricMas C'est un symbole fondateur.
Et un 11-Novembre en plus.
L'Union Européenne est notre destin commun, n'en déplaise aux fachos de gauche et de droite." / Twitter

It is a founding symbol.
And a 11-November and more.
The European Union is our common destiny, no offense to the fascists left and right.

November 11: Armistice Day, later Veterans Day, when the Great War was officially ended. That war is now called World War I, because it was followed by an even bigger war.

This war is rather small by WWI and WWII standards, but it is producing plenty of political upheavals. Not on the scale of WWI and WWII, I think, but upheavals nonetheless. Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Ukraine getting closer to the EU and NATO, ...

Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "Ukrainian soldiers in the centre of Kherson (vid link)" / Twitter
Showing those people in front of that building.

 

[lpetrich]

Telegram: Contact @Tsaplienko

Над будівлею головного управління поліції в Херсоні піднімають український прапор. І знову найщиріші обійми.

The Ukrainian flag is raised above the building of the police headquarters in Kherson. And again the most sincere hugs.

Matthew Luxmoore on Twitter: "Amazing videos surfacing today of Ukrainian troops being greeted by emotional residents of Kherson region towns and villages liberated since Russia announced its withdrawal yesterday. “Can I hug you?” one woman asks. (vid link)" / Twitter

Telegram: Contact @astrapress - Ukrainians vs. a Russian billboard that says "Россия здесь навсегда" - "Russia is here forever"
Captioned "Под Херсоном сегодня" - "Near Kherson today"

 

[Jayjay]

I have a feeling that Kherson isn't safe from artillery. Russia may just try to turn it to rubble out of spite for losing. Much like Kupyansk in Kharkiv region after it was liberated, or how town of Nikopol is constantly under barrage from another side of Dnipro. There's also the constant risk of Nova Kakhovka dam being blown up.

But I think it's absolutely worth it and a huge victory for Ukraine.

 

[lpetrich]

Telegram: Contact @ukraina_novosti

Еще одно видео с подорванного русней Антоновского моста.
Понтонная переправа тоже уже разрушена.

Another video from the Antonovsky bridge undermined by the Russians.
The pontoon crossing has also been destroyed.

The center span is gone from that bridge.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "The Antonovsky bridge and the pontoon bridge are gone. Russians seem to have “ended” their withdrawal in that sector. Whoever didn’t flee until now is now stuck, though I suspect that most Russian troops are gone. #Kherson #Ukraine (vid link)" / Twitter

I doubt that Ukraine will repair that bridge anytime soon. Most likely if Russian troops are driven away from the left bank.

Russia Working Fast To Restore Blown Bridge To Crimea

Moscow is working quickly to repair the bridge that connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014. The damage to the heavily defended Crimean Bridge infuriated the Kremlin. Ukrainian officials have not said who carried it out.

Showing a new single-lane span being lowered into place.

Crimea bridge: Russia 'to repair blast damage by July 2023' - BBC News

The 19km (12-mile) bridge, Europe's longest, is a key supply route for Russian forces in Ukraine, but heavy goods vehicles are unable to use it.

The explosion caused midway sections of one of the two carriageways of the bridge to collapse into the sea and also damaged the railway line.

Currently, lorries are forced to queue for a ferry, in a process which is thought to take several days.

The bridge has, however, been reopened for rail and light road traffic.

Crimea bridge repairs ‘will disrupt Russian supplies until September’ | Evening Standard - "Repair work is expected to disrupt traffic until March next year"

The bridge was due to be closed on Tuesday to allow the installation of a replacement 64-metre span, the Ministry of Defence said in an update on Wednesday. Three more spans will be required to replace the damaged road sections.

Although Crimean officials have claimed these additional spans will be in place by December 20, a briefing provided to Russian president Vladimir Putin added that works to the other carriageway would cause disruption to road traffic until March 2023, the defence intelligence update said.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I have a feeling that Kherson isn't safe from artillery. Russia may just try to turn it to rubble out of spite for losing. Much like Kupyansk in Kharkiv region after it was liberated, or how town of Nikopol is constantly under barrage from another side of Dnipro. There's also the constant risk of Nova Kakhovka dam being blown up.

But I think it's absolutely worth it and a huge victory for Ukraine.

There are some reports circulating that Russian soldiers are still in Kherson but not in uniform. Hard to know if they are deserters or guerilla types. Residents have noted their presence. What will Russia do with Kherson is right now the million dollar question. Will they turn it to rubble? That would be my guess.

 

[lpetrich]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "All those celebration videos from Kherson should remind you how fake Russian "elections" are. Remember, according to Moscow 87% of Kherson wanted to join Russia. Similar ridiculous numbers came from Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
They are all fake. #Ukraine" / Twitter

Francis Scarr on Twitter: "Russian TV host Andrei Norkin's realisation that his country lacks freedom of speech:
If I back the decision to withdraw from Kherson, I'm going to jail for questioning Russia's territorial integrity
And if I oppose it, I'm going to jail for discrediting the armed forces (vid link)" / Twitter


I don't know how much of the right bank of the Dnieper / Dnipro River that Ukraine has liberated, though if any Russian troops are there, they won't be for much longer.


I'll now consider what Ukraine's next move might be. Since the Dnipro River is a natural barrier, I suspect somewhere between Zaporizhia and Donetsk. Ukr would move southward to Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol. If Ukr retakes Melitopol, then the Crimea-mainland connections will be in easy reach.

 

[lpetrich]

Citizen of Ukraine on Twitter: "#ukrainecounteroffensive on the map from November 8 to 11.
This video lasts only 8 seconds, but I want to watch it again and again. #KhersonisUkraine (vid link)" / Twitter - after what a slow crawl it was over the last few months, that is remarkably fast.

But this is another story.

SWElla Fella ❤ on Twitter: "POV: Ukrainians breaking trough the main Russian defence line in Kherson. #NAFO #NAFOmemes #ukrainecounteroffensive #Kherson #Cherson (vid link)" / Twitter
I think it's joking. It's a low street barricade that some Ukr tanks run over rather easily.

SWElla Fella ❤ on Twitter: "*For the people who don't realize this is joke* This is taken from the video below which is recorded in 2014 in Mariupol and not the main defense of the Russian army. It's hilarious that you had to clarify that it isn't the current Russian defense tho (link)" / Twitter

shafii on Twitter: "@Swella_Fella This is when Ukraine took back Mariupol in 2014. It is an old footage" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Midterms Will Determine Republican Stance on Ukraine - "Christian nationalists see Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a key step in his campaign to crush the global woke left."

The central question looming over the 2022 midterm elections is whether the Republican Party is morphing into a fascistic organization that wants to end the messy business of elections, voting, and democracy and create a right-wing autocracy instead. Ever since Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, culminating in the January 6 insurrection and followed by Republican efforts to downplay the coup attempt, it has become increasingly difficult to tell the difference between the Republican mainstream and the party’s extremist fringe.

If the Republicans prevail and gain control of Congress, one of the first tests of their true intentions will come when they must decide whether to support continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine in its defense against this year’s brutal Russian invasion.

In a Republican-controlled Congress, votes on aid to Ukraine are likely to reveal a sharp divide between traditional, hawkish Republicans who oppose the Russian invasion and have supported the Biden administration’s military aid to Ukraine, and the new and growing faction of the Christian evangelical movement known as Christian nationalists, many of whom admire Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and want to cut off American support for Ukraine. Votes on Ukraine will serve as a barometer of whether traditional Republicans still have any influence, and whether they have the will to stand up to the rise of extremism within their ranks.

...
Christian nationalists see Putin as the leader in a powerful right-wing counterattack against liberal secularism and as a protector of their Christian faith. Putin has encouraged this support from Christian nationalists in the United States and other Western nations by co-opting the Russian Orthodox Church and waging a culture war inside Russia, notably with anti-gay and other supposedly “pro-family” measures.

 

[lpetrich]

noting
Russia's Culture War Is Going Badly for Putin

For most of us, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a brutal act of aggression. But a small yet growing and influential group of European and U.S. pundits and politicians is justifying it as a check against the spread of a decadent West. Members of Europe’s far-right are quick to qualify that Russia’s war is a “clear violation of international law and absolutely indefensible,” as France’s Marine Le Pen noted at the war’s onset. Yet almost in the same breath, they applaud Russian President Vladimir Putin as a defender of Western Christian civilization under attack from an unchecked mob of so-called woke liberals.

...
This camp frames the threat to their vision of the West as coming from within, not without. For them, the war that matters is the culture war. It’s a framing that Putin himself has been employing—but one that is much less successful, even in Russia, than its adherents believe.

Putin has played the culture card for years in France, Hungary, and other European countries with strong attachments to so-called traditional values. In so doing, he has tapped into larger fissures over identity politics in the West, which Putin has sought to deepen since taking power.

In these struggles, the Russian president has portrayed himself as defending an authentic European culture highjacked by a radical cultural left.

Like official homophobia and support for the Russian Orthodox Church. Address by the President of the Russian Federation • President of Russia saying that the war was about fighting Western degeneracy.

Then noting Ukraine's divisions, which are roughly:

1. C, N, W -- former Kievan Rus, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth -- more Ukrainian nationalist
2. E, S, Crimea -- colonized by Russia in 18th cy. -- more pro-Russian

Yet Putin’s invasion has squandered almost all the soft power Russia once enjoyed in the country. Other surveys underscore that the invasion has accelerated the reshaping of a post-Soviet national identity and culture in Ukraine that is understandably much more hostile to Russia and significantly more receptive to joining the West.

Like what has happened in other post-Soviet and ex-Soviet-Bloc countries.