How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Biggest Defeat For Russia In A Generation As Starving Troops Flee Across A Key Ukrainian River​

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The Kremlin has ordered its forces to withdraw from the city of Kherson on the Black Sea coast in southern Ukraine.
The order comes eight months after the Russians captured Kherson and its 300,000 residents, six months after Ukrainian troops began bombarding the Kherson garrison’s supply line and two months after Ukrainian brigades launched a counteroffensive in the south aimed at liberating Kherson.
It’s a profound victory for Ukraine, and a major defeat for Russia. Arguably the biggest Russian defeat in a generation.

From there, the Ukrainians with their European-made howitzers and American-made rocket-launchers easily can strike the Isthmus of Perekop, the three-mile-wide strip of land, 45 miles south of Kherson, that connects the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to Kherson Oblast south of the Dnipro.

Crimea, which Russian troops seized from Ukraine back in 2014, is the base for all Russian operations in southern Ukraine. The pin holding together the occupation of the entire region.

For the Ukrainian military, liberating Kherson is a step toward liberating Crimea. Soon, Ukrainian rockets and gun barrels will begin zeroing in on the Isthmus of Perekop, the gateway to the occupied peninsula.

Is there a reason I should not be optimistic about Ukraine's chances?

Well...

A. The troops have not actually withdrawn yet. There's still a non-zero chance this is a ploy to lure Ukrainians in. Some evidence from locals suggests that Russians have indeed withdrawn from the outer villages, but not yet from the city itself. Also it's possible that Russia will concede the city, but tries to maintain a smaller bridgehead around Nova Kakhovka, a more strategically important location.

B. Unlike what the article above claims, the Isthmus of Perekop wouldn't be within Howitzer range (30-45 km) and only barely within HIMARS reach. It's about 70-80 km from the Dnipro river. And the river bank will be within Russian artillery range so firing from there regularly is probably risky.

C. The isthmus is not the only way to supply Crimea.

 

[Tigers!]

Kirill Stremousov, Pewstain's puppet deputy governor in Kherson, is dead, reportedly killed in a car crash. Good news.

Barbos will tell us that wicked Ukrainian nazis killed the peace loving deputy governor

 

[Jayjay]

Biggest Defeat For Russia In A Generation As Starving Troops Flee Across A Key Ukrainian River​

​

The Kremlin has ordered its forces to withdraw from the city of Kherson on the Black Sea coast in southern Ukraine.
The order comes eight months after the Russians captured Kherson and its 300,000 residents, six months after Ukrainian troops began bombarding the Kherson garrison’s supply line and two months after Ukrainian brigades launched a counteroffensive in the south aimed at liberating Kherson.
It’s a profound victory for Ukraine, and a major defeat for Russia. Arguably the biggest Russian defeat in a generation.

From there, the Ukrainians with their European-made howitzers and American-made rocket-launchers easily can strike the Isthmus of Perekop, the three-mile-wide strip of land, 45 miles south of Kherson, that connects the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to Kherson Oblast south of the Dnipro.

Crimea, which Russian troops seized from Ukraine back in 2014, is the base for all Russian operations in southern Ukraine. The pin holding together the occupation of the entire region.

For the Ukrainian military, liberating Kherson is a step toward liberating Crimea. Soon, Ukrainian rockets and gun barrels will begin zeroing in on the Isthmus of Perekop, the gateway to the occupied peninsula.

Is there a reason I should not be optimistic about Ukraine's chances?

Well...

A. The troops have not actually withdrawn yet. There's still a non-zero chance this is a ploy to lure Ukrainians in. Some evidence from locals suggests that Russians have indeed withdrawn from the outer villages, but not yet from the city itself. Also it's possible that Russia will concede the city, but tries to maintain a smaller bridgehead around Nova Kakhovka, a more strategically important location.

B. Unlike what the article above claims, the Isthmus of Perekop wouldn't be within Howitzer range (30-45 km) and only barely within HIMARS reach. It's about 70-80 km from the Dnipro river. And the river bank will be within Russian artillery range so firing from there regularly is probably risky.

C. The isthmus is not the only way to supply Crimea.

This picture shows roughly the Himars range if Kherson is liberated:

 

[Copernicus]

I thought Siberia was not a place one chooses to live.

In the news Brittney Griner is being sent to a forced labor camp. I would not expect her to survive the 8 or 9 year sentence.

Same old Stalinist-communist Russia.

Maybe Barbos is a cranky old demented die hard communist. Isolated in Siberia for too long.

 Siberia is a big place east of the Urals, not an isolated penal colony. There are plenty of cities and people there, many of whom spend their whole lives there without feeling a need to move to the western side of the country. My guess is that barbos is living somewhere in the Siberian Federal District, not in one of the more remote areas. Griner is going to be in a prison setting that is intended to make the lives of inmates miserable.

 

[steve_bank]

I thought Siberia was not a place one chooses to live.

In the news Brittney Griner is being sent to a forced labor camp. I would not expect her to survive the 8 or 9 year sentence.

Same old Stalinist-communist Russia.

Maybe Barbos is a cranky old demented die hard communist. Isolated in Siberia for too long.

 Siberia is a big place east of the Urals, not an isolated penal colony. There are plenty of cities and people there, many of whom spend their whole lives there without feeling a need to move to the western side of the country. My guess is that barbos is living somewhere in the Siberian Federal District, not in one of the more remote areas. Griner is going to be in a prison setting that is intended to make the lives of inmates miserable.

Alaska has cities too.......

I feel sorry for Griner. Caught in a political game. Add to that being gay in a homophobic country. She will be emotionally and physcally brutalized.

A Day In The Life Of Ivan Denisovich comes to mind.

It appears to be a refection of Russian culture.

 

[Harry Bosch]

In barbos's mind they are regrouping to the rear because the nazis threat has been eliminated.

People who are following this conflict closer than myself suspect that there is some kind of deal between parties. I mean if US agrees to leave Ukraine then Russia will leave some of it too.
......

Шойгу приказал отвести войска из Херсона на левый берег Днепра

Командующий объединенной группировкой российских войск в зоне специальной операции на Украине генерал армии Сергей Суровикин доложил министру обороны России Сергей Шойгу о необходимости оставить расположенный на западном берегу Днепра город Херсон и занять оборону по восточному берегу реки.

lenta.ru

Well, official explanation is a threat of khahovka dam destruction and subsequent loss of communication.

The problem my friend is that Ukraine is going to need a lot of help to rebuild and re-arm. I'm sure you agree that after this war is over, and the Russians have returned home. Ukraine needs a very brisk defensive front to encourage Russians to stay on their side of the border. You guys have also been bombing their infrastructure. It gets very cold in Ukraine. So, they need infrastructure repaired. I think that we'll be helping Ukraine for a long time!

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine, if left alone, could and likely would be a rich country. Lots of ag and mineral resources… it would make Russia look terrible. Another reason for Pootey to call them Nazis and hire some actual Nazis to exterminate them.

 

[ZiprHead]

I feel sorry for Griner. Caught in a political game. Add to that being gay in a homophobic country. She will be emotionally and physcally brutalized.

Especially since she was there to help Russia.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine, if left alone, could and likely would be a rich country. Lots of ag and mineral resources… it would make Russia look terrible. Another reason for Pootey to call them Nazis and hire some actual Nazis to exterminate them.

Very much agree. Europe still needs energy. Shipping it frozen from the US is expensive. Secondly, Ukraine has the 4th highest amount of rare earth metals after Russia, China, and Brazil. Russia had all the advantage here. However, no one wants to work with a vendor that is flacky, can't maintain the flow, and is a bully. Yes it will be expensive to help Ukraine rebuild, but will payoff in the future.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin has arrived at a point where he doesn't dare show his face at a G-20 summit. He should never even have been invited, but Indonesia decided to extend the invitation anyway.

Russia’s Putin won’t attend upcoming G-20 summit in Bali​

Zelensky will also send a delegate, but, with his country under devastating attack, it is not because of a need to avoid contact with other people who will be there. Putin's country is not suffering any existential threat from its neighbor, so he could probably spare the time.

 

[SLD]

Putin has arrived at a point where he doesn't dare show his face at a G-20 summit. He should never even have been invited, but Indonesia decided to extend the invitation anyway.

Russia’s Putin won’t attend upcoming G-20 summit in Bali​

I think he would be subject to immediate arrest and extradition to The Hague to stand trial for war crimes.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin has arrived at a point where he doesn't dare show his face at a G-20 summit. He should never even have been invited, but Indonesia decided to extend the invitation anyway.

Russia’s Putin won’t attend upcoming G-20 summit in Bali​

I think he would be subject to immediate arrest and extradition to The Hague to stand trial for war crimes.

Widodo invited Putin because he wanted to play the role of peacemaker. The US and many other countries did not want Indonesia to invite Putin to the summit.

 

[steve_bank]

If Putin showed up anywhere in public outside of Russia there would be demonstrations. Maybe even with Russian ex-pats.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well, official explanation is a threat of khahovka dam destruction and subsequent loss of communication.

Yeah, I vaguely remember the news about water gateway on that hydro power station being HIMARSed a week or so ago. Intentions of ukro-nazi strategists was clear.

1) They don't need to use HIMARS on something that close.

2) HIMARS isn't going to do more to a dam than scratch the paint. I've seen the hydropower station of a dam (back before terrorism was the issue it is today they offered tours of Hoover Dam), it's buried deep inside, you would need something like the GBU-28 to have any chance of hitting it.

3) Ukraine would gain nothing from destroying the dam. For Russia it would just be part of their genocide of the Ukrainians. Russia's current strategy is a repeat of the Holodomor.

4) For Ukraine to destroy the dam would be an instant loss of the war for them. They're not going to do it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Let us call Pootie's special military operation for what it is. Holdomor Ii.

Actually, it's Elensky and his nazi who is shipping food out, not Putin.

Except this time it's by destroying the utilities rather than taking the food. You're taking it too literally.

 

[Copernicus]

If Putin showed up anywhere in public outside of Russia there would be demonstrations. Maybe even with Russian ex-pats.

He can still show up in countries like China and Iran, where he can hobnob with his patrons. For China, Putin is a cheap source of energy, so they are willing to string him along for all they can get. Iran has common cause with him in opposing the US and controlling energy markets.

 

[steve_bank]

If Putin showed up anywhere in public outside of Russia there would be demonstrations. Maybe even with Russian ex-pats.

He can still show up in countries like China and Iran, where he can hobnob with his patrons. For China, Putin is a cheap source of energy, so they are willing to string him along for all they can get. Iran has common cause with him in opposing the US and controlling energy markets.

I think the term is realpolitik.

 

[Copernicus]

If Putin showed up anywhere in public outside of Russia there would be demonstrations. Maybe even with Russian ex-pats.

He can still show up in countries like China and Iran, where he can hobnob with his patrons. For China, Putin is a cheap source of energy, so they are willing to string him along for all they can get. Iran has common cause with him in opposing the US and controlling energy markets.

I think the term is realpolitik.

A serious misnomer designed to excuse atrocious government policies. I think that the term dummpolitik would be more accurate. Putin has certainly not embarked on a path that will enhance the national security or interests of the nation that he holds subordinate to his personal interests.

 

[TSwizzle]

Sean Penn is such a clown. He has given Zelensky his Oscar statue to keep until Ukraine wins the war or something. Unbelievably, Sean Penn has won two Oscars!!

 

[Rhea]

Sean Penn is such a clown. He has given Zelensky his Oscar statue to keep until Ukraine wins the war or something. Unbelievably, Sean Penn has won two Oscars!!

Wow, that is really performative. Sometimes those famous people can be really out of touch. Like, really, Sean?

Maybe it’s because he doesn’t have any money to donate. Spent it all on appearing famous.