How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Russia will start manufacturing Iranian drones in Russia. Correction: they will be Russian drones as calling them Iranian is somehow humiliating to Russians. These fucking people are made of glass. I guess when you're that far down, everything is perceived as an insult.

So now what? Even in a world where UAF pushes RAF completely out of Ukraine, do we all just stand by and watch Russia terrorize Ukraine indefinitely because the sacred Russian motherland must not be touched?

I guess we're all waiting for Putin to be deposed by Navalny. Where time is measured in blood.

 

[steve_bank]

Russia will start manufacturing Iranian drones in Russia. Correction: they will be Russian drones as calling them Iranian is somehow humiliating to Russians. These fucking people are made of glass. I guess when you're that far down, everything is perceived as an insult.

So now what? Even in a world where UAF pushes RAF completely out of Ukraine, do we all just stand by and watch Russia terrorize Ukraine indefinitely because the sacred Russian motherland must not be touched?

I guess we're all waiting for Putin to be deposed by Navalny. Where time is measured in blood.

The Royal Air Force?????

 

[SLD]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia will start manufacturing Iranian drones in Russia. Correction: they will be Russian drones as calling them Iranian is somehow humiliating to Russians. These fucking people are made of glass. I guess when you're that far down, everything is perceived as an insult.

So now what? Even in a world where UAF pushes RAF completely out of Ukraine, do we all just stand by and watch Russia terrorize Ukraine indefinitely because the sacred Russian motherland must not be touched?

I guess we're all waiting for Putin to be deposed by Navalny. Where time is measured in blood.

The Royal Air Force?????

Russian Armed Forces
Ukrainian Armed Forces

 

[steve_bank]

Russia will start manufacturing Iranian drones in Russia. Correction: they will be Russian drones as calling them Iranian is somehow humiliating to Russians. These fucking people are made of glass. I guess when you're that far down, everything is perceived as an insult.

So now what? Even in a world where UAF pushes RAF completely out of Ukraine, do we all just stand by and watch Russia terrorize Ukraine indefinitely because the sacred Russian motherland must not be touched?

I guess we're all waiting for Putin to be deposed by Navalny. Where time is measured in blood.

The Royal Air Force?????

Russian Armed Forces
Ukrainian Armed Forces

 

[steve_bank]

It is a stalemate.

Pundits are pointing out that Putin has no off ramp that will allow him to save face and sell a negotiated settlement to his supporters.

Ukraine so fr haid they will settle for nothing less than complete withdrawal including Crimea and security for Ukrainian borders. Non starters for Putin. Compering what Ukraine has suffered I doubt they will accept anything less than complete withdrawl, plus reparations.

Even if Russian troops are pushed back across the border Putin can still rain cheap drones down on Ukranian infrastructure. It will be hrd fpr them to rebuild.

Putin has to be stopped some way, and I don't see how.

The Pentagon Papers showed that around 1967 the Pentagon knew there was no military solution in Vietnam yet we fought on. Eventualy Nixon came up with Vietnamization and 'peace with honor', and sold it to congress and the people.

Putin painted himself into a corner from the start.

It mae turn out to be one of those historical unendng condflits. We had Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Very costly and had no net gian for us.

Pakistan vs India. Iran vs Saudi Arabia.

It seems clear we do not want Ukraine to carry the fight into Russia. That puts Ukraine between a rock and a hard place.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia will start manufacturing Iranian drones in Russia. Correction: they will be Russian drones as calling them Iranian is somehow humiliating to Russians. These fucking people are made of glass. I guess when you're that far down, everything is perceived as an insult.

So now what? Even in a world where UAF pushes RAF completely out of Ukraine, do we all just stand by and watch Russia terrorize Ukraine indefinitely because the sacred Russian motherland must not be touched?

I guess we're all waiting for Putin to be deposed by Navalny. Where time is measured in blood.

You've nailed it. When Ukraine manages to push the Putinistas back into their holes other side of the border does the international community simply allow the bombs to keep flying into Ukraine? Why not face and fix the problem now?

 

[Harry Bosch]

And now a commerciall break from Capatin Obvious.

Putin accusing Ukraine of war crimes while systematically tryng to eradicate Ukrinians as a a people?

The video even if authentic is for Russian media propaganda. Putin is not speaking to us, he is always speaking to the Russian people.

I read a number of books on WWII. During D Day the Germans hung captured paratroopers upside down along rroads with their throats cut.

For the Americans on Omaha beach as it got brutal it became 'take no prisoners' for a period.

So, an army invades your country, systematically attacks civilians, destroys energy and food production, and you are supposed to be nice and play war by a set of rules? I don't think so.

In WWII Pacific island campaigns fanatical Japanese soldiers and civilians holed up in caves refusing to surrender. Gasoline and explosives were used to kill them.

The Geneva Conventions came about in the context of 19th century war. Professional armies lined up and went at each oter.

Anyone who is trying to kill you, all your family, and all your friends gives up the right to any snese of motality and fiarness.

Precisely.

I've said it before: war is always a crime. We're talking about a situation where one country forcibly, by use of violence, tries to permanently annex parts of another country (or sometimes the whole country). If the very premise of the situation is that rules are tossed out the window, we can't expect either side to come through the ordeal with a perfect humanitarian record.

I agree with you and Steve. I mean, Ukraine like all armies should follow the Geneva accords. That's the standards. But individual soldiers break the rules. US soldiers broke some in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and every war that we've ever been in. It happens. And the goal should be to stop it. However, I have very little empathy for these Russian soldiers. They are invading a foreign country. They routinely kill and torture civilians. They steal everything that they can grab. Everything. Reportedly, Russian soldiers stole a llama and a prized racoon from a Ukranian zoo! To the Russians concerned about atrocities committed by Ukraine: get your hypocritical asses the fuck out of Ukraine.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

Yeah, I've been thinking their port facilities would make a good target. LNG terminals should make some big fireworks.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

Yeah, I've been thinking their port facilities would make a good target. LNG terminals should make some big fireworks.

I'd stick to military targets. Going after a commodity the world uses tends to have an outsized effect.
On the other hand, Europe's tanks are full and there are about 40 LNG tankers sitting off Europe's coasts waiting and hoping for better prices.

 

[steve_bank]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

 

[Jayjay]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

Yeah, I've been thinking their port facilities would make a good target. LNG terminals should make some big fireworks.

I'd stick to military targets. Going after a commodity the world uses tends to have an outsized effect.
On the other hand, Europe's tanks are full and there are about 40 LNG tankers sitting off Europe's coasts waiting and hoping for better prices.

I thought they were waiting in line to get at the LNG terminals? Europe has limited capacity to regasify LNG, but enough money to pay for the ships to wait with the meter running (or more realistically, the price the suppliers get for selling to EU is higher than shipping it elsewhere, even if you count the waiting time).

 

[SLD]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

Yes, and destroying their ability to export oil to India and China would be a big step in ensuring that the Russian economy collapses. Hence a "terrorist" action to destroy their export ability.

I confess I'm not sure how best to do that though. But I suspect there's got to be a way.

I also heard that come January, Russian shippers will not be able to buy insurance. Makes shipping the oil through tankers very difficult.

 

[lpetrich]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Russia experienced another larger defeat at the Svatove front. Three T-72B3, relatively modern Russian tank types, have been captured by Ukrainian forces. Even for Russians this is a rather uncommon failure. #Svatove #Ukraine (vid link)" / Twitter

Ukraine is continuing to make slow progress toward Svatove: s...l...o...w. But the nation's army may speed up when the ground freezes and stops being muddy. Given how poorly supplied the "mobiks" apparently are, we may see an inverse of the victory that Russia won over Napoleon and Hitler -- this time, it's the Russians being done in by winter weather.


AlexandruC4 on Twitter: "Reports of fighting underway in the Kinburn peninsula (pic link)" / Twitter - is this some alternative to pushing southward from Zaporizhia?

That's the  Kinburn Peninsula at where the Dnieper / Dnipro and the Southern Bug Rivers flow into the Black Sea. That's at the west end of the Russians' occupation zone.

Is that a feint, a distraction from a big push southward from Zaporizhia?

Will Ukraine attempt a landing there? Its end about 5 kilometers from the mainland to the north, so the crossing should not be difficult. But it is about 100 km from Kherson, meaning that the Russians have plenty of opportunity to fight off this reconquest force.

 

[Jayjay]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

Yes, and destroying their ability to export oil to India and China would be a big step in ensuring that the Russian economy collapses. Hence a "terrorist" action to destroy their export ability.

I confess I'm not sure how best to do that though. But I suspect there's got to be a way.

I also heard that come January, Russian shippers will not be able to buy insurance. Makes shipping the oil through tankers very difficult.

Russia has its own fleet of tankers. Unless we start sinking or sabotaging their ships, I think Russia will be able to keep on exporting oil. But they probably can't do it as profitably as before, because they have to sell at a discount.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It is a stalemate.

Pundits are pointing out that Putin has no off ramp that will allow him to save face and sell a negotiated settlement to his supporters.

Ukraine so fr haid they will settle for nothing less than complete withdrawal including Crimea and security for Ukrainian borders. Non starters for Putin. Compering what Ukraine has suffered I doubt they will accept anything less than complete withdrawl, plus reparations.

Even if Russian troops are pushed back across the border Putin can still rain cheap drones down on Ukranian infrastructure. It will be hrd fpr them to rebuild.

Putin has to be stopped some way, and I don't see how.

The Pentagon Papers showed that around 1967 the Pentagon knew there was no military solution in Vietnam yet we fought on. Eventualy Nixon came up with Vietnamization and 'peace with honor', and sold it to congress and the people.

Putin painted himself into a corner from the start.

It mae turn out to be one of those historical unendng condflits. We had Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Very costly and had no net gian for us.

Pakistan vs India. Iran vs Saudi Arabia.

It seems clear we do not want Ukraine to carry the fight into Russia. That puts Ukraine between a rock and a hard place.

I think Putin can spin this to the Russians. He can play the victim card. He can say that Russia tried stopping the Ukrainian Nazis but failed because the west ganged up on Russia to protect Nazis. The west are Nazis.. etc etc. That's pretty much his narrative now. He's already created a narrative where NATO is the new Nazi Germany/Napoleon.

Yes, it's a stalemate. That's why I think it's time for the west to commit troops now. Just to go all in. Like we did with Saddam in 1991. Just to get this war over with. If we hit Russia with a hammer hard enough he will stop fighting. I don't think Russia will use nukes. If he does I see no scenario where it will make Putin look good. Now when Putin is systematically targetting civilian infrastructure for power, I think Russia is officially a terrorist-state and we don't have to care if we hurt their feelings.

The thing with Russia is that it's so hopelessly corrupt that they will never never never be wealthy enough to threaten a united west. The country is a basket case. We can swat Putin like a fly. If we decide to.

 

[SLD]

It is a stalemate.

Pundits are pointing out that Putin has no off ramp that will allow him to save face and sell a negotiated settlement to his supporters.

Ukraine so fr haid they will settle for nothing less than complete withdrawal including Crimea and security for Ukrainian borders. Non starters for Putin. Compering what Ukraine has suffered I doubt they will accept anything less than complete withdrawl, plus reparations.

Even if Russian troops are pushed back across the border Putin can still rain cheap drones down on Ukranian infrastructure. It will be hrd fpr them to rebuild.

Putin has to be stopped some way, and I don't see how.

The Pentagon Papers showed that around 1967 the Pentagon knew there was no military solution in Vietnam yet we fought on. Eventualy Nixon came up with Vietnamization and 'peace with honor', and sold it to congress and the people.

Putin painted himself into a corner from the start.

It mae turn out to be one of those historical unendng condflits. We had Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Very costly and had no net gian for us.

Pakistan vs India. Iran vs Saudi Arabia.

It seems clear we do not want Ukraine to carry the fight into Russia. That puts Ukraine between a rock and a hard place.

I think Putin can spin this to the Russians. He can play the victim card. He can say that Russia tried stopping the Ukrainian Nazis but failed because the west ganged up on Russia to protect Nazis. The west are Nazis.. etc etc. That's pretty much his narrative now. He's already created a narrative where NATO is the new Nazi Germany/Napoleon.

Yes, it's a stalemate. That's why I think it's time for the west to commit troops now. Just to go all in. Like we did with Saddam in 1991. Just to get this war over with. If we hit Russia with a hammer hard enough he will stop fighting. I don't think Russia will use nukes. If he does I see no scenario where it will make Putin look good. Now when Putin is systematically targetting civilian infrastructure for power, I think Russia is officially a terrorist-state and we don't have to care if we hurt their feelings.

The thing with Russia is that it's so hopelessly corrupt that they will never never never be wealthy enough to threaten a united west. The country is a basket case. We can swat Putin like a fly. If we decide to.

Except he has nukes. And that’s the problem.

 

[SLD]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

Yes, and destroying their ability to export oil to India and China would be a big step in ensuring that the Russian economy collapses. Hence a "terrorist" action to destroy their export ability.

I confess I'm not sure how best to do that though. But I suspect there's got to be a way.

I also heard that come January, Russian shippers will not be able to buy insurance. Makes shipping the oil through tankers very difficult.

Russia has its own fleet of tankers. Unless we start sinking or sabotaging their ships, I think Russia will be able to keep on exporting oil. But they probably can't do it as profitably as before, because they have to sell at a discount.

But somewhere those ships are being loaded. Ukraine could target those facilities, with a terrorist like attack. Without oil they can no longer fund this war. Without oil their economy collapses.

 

[steve_bank]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

Yes, and destroying their ability to export oil to India and China would be a big step in ensuring that the Russian economy collapses. Hence a "terrorist" action to destroy their export ability.

I confess I'm not sure how best to do that though. But I suspect there's got to be a way.

I also heard that come January, Russian shippers will not be able to buy insurance. Makes shipping the oil through tankers very difficult.

Overt attack on Russia cod lead to nuclear war. It appears the crazy extremes in Russia have the power.

I expect NATO has gamed it all out. An attack on Russia would galvanize Russia.

Russia is done as any king of world power.

If Russia again blockades wheat, the I think NATO running the blockade would be the thing to do. The sea route should be in international waters. If Russia fires the first shot the respond.

 

[SLD]

Europe is getting off Russian energy and Ukraine has to endure untill Putin dies or is replaced, or the Russian economy collapses

All through the Cold War Europe was getting Russian energy.

Russia...We hate the west and want to destroy you, but in the meantime wanna buy some energy?

Europe...No problem.

Yes, and destroying their ability to export oil to India and China would be a big step in ensuring that the Russian economy collapses. Hence a "terrorist" action to destroy their export ability.

I confess I'm not sure how best to do that though. But I suspect there's got to be a way.

I also heard that come January, Russian shippers will not be able to buy insurance. Makes shipping the oil through tankers very difficult.

Overt attack on Russia cod lead to nuclear war. It appears the crazy extremes in Russia have the power.

I expect NATO has gamed it all out. An attack on Russia would galvanize Russia.

Russia is done as any king of world power.

If Russia again blockades wheat, the I think NATO running the blockade would be the thing to do. The sea route should be in international waters. If Russia fires the first shot the respond.

I agree “we” shouldn’t. Ukraine though could (but they’d need our covert help).