Harry Bosch
Contributor
I'm getting closer to agreeing with you. I never wanted Ukraine to be the sole soldiers fighting for democracy and choice. There is still a lot more the west can do before getting directly involved. We could send far more weapons (Germany get off your ass). We should start training them in modern jets and start sending them modern fighters and bombers. We could also find ways to stop Iran and North Korea from supplying Russia. At the end of day, getting Nato directly involved is very risky as it could leave to nuclear war. However, China finally drew a line in the sand with Russia and told Putler nukes are not acceptable. China is also an imperialist bully. But they aren't suicidal. I think that if Belarus attacks Ukraine, maybe that should prompt widening the war. But if we do go in, step one should be for NATO to implement Russian no fly zone. Once implemented, then allow Ukrainian jets to take out remaining Russian artillery.Exactly. If there is one word to describe western attitude towards the war, it's complacency. We think that if we just sit back and wait, Ukraine will win somehow because good will triumph over evil. But that's nonsense.The casuality numbers are highly questionable. Both sides have an incentive to downplay losses. For all we know Ukraine is being bled dry of manpower. There's also the issue of combat fatigue. There's a few comparative studies of effectiveness of troops. Green troops suck. Veterans with up to 200 days of combat are highly effective. But then combat fatigue sets in and they get worse... and worse and worse. That's about six months of fighting every day. How much longer are the Ukrainian soldiers capable of fighting effectively?
Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Combat stress reaction - Wikipedia
Everybody is cheering for Ukraine. We love an undedog story. But Ukraine is an underdog. Goliath might curb stomp them at any moment. I think it's dangerous to see the success of Ukraine as inevitable. I maintain that we (the western allies) need to do something quickly to keep Ukraine from falling apart. More than just sending bullets and rockets.
I don't think that is what the west is doing. I think the west is hedging their bets. Russia has a lot of natural resources that the west wants. They don't want to enter into a war against someone who has things they might want in the future. So they impose sanctions, ie toothless whining. With the current strategy; if Ukraine wins, great. If Russia wins, great. The west doesn't care if we, in the future, buy Ukrainian gas from Ukraine or Russia. Putin is 70 years old. He's going to leave the stage within a decade or so. When he's gone we will wipe the slate clean (like we did when Stalin died) and start over. We don't want to start a conflict that will create bitter tensions for generations to come (ie after Putin is gone).
And more importantly, following the exit of Putin ANYTHING can happen. Anything. Putin has created a system totally dependent on him at the top. He has no dynasty to take over. His nation is run by a (mostly) Jewish maffia. Russians hate Jews. So obviously they're not going to take control of the country. This BTW isn't an antisemetic conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy. But there's nothing hidden about it. He has put Jews in control because they know they're dependent on Putin's protection to stay in power. Without the protection of the Russian ruler (whoever that is) they're fucked. This system was created by Brehznev (because he thought communism sucked and wanted a life of fucking hookers drunk on champagne).
There's a bunch of powerful guys (ex-communist establishment) waiting in the wings in Putin's clique. But none of them is strong enough to rest power for themselves (by Putin's design). After Putin the power struggles could get really ugly. And something a friendly west could potentially exploit.
Not to mention that Ukraine has the same, bizarrely corrupt, system as Russia, also run mostly by the maffia. A maffia unfettered by national borders and closely enmeshed into the Russian maffia. There is no guarantee that backing Ukraine will pay-off in the long run. Helping Ukraine might just as well backfire and lead to the rise to power of some Putin-like despot. Zelenskyy might be just that guy. We have no reason to trust him.
I think this is what is happening. The western powers have every reason to be wary. Both Ukraine and Russia are a complete mess (in every way). No matter what horse we bet on, it can go horribly wrong.
Knowing this, I still think we should get involved and push Russia out. Right now the Ukrainian people are suffering. The sooner this war ends the better. That's enough of a reason to get involved IMHO.
I still think that the best chance of a peace is for Ukrainian to defeat Russia until Russia returns home. Then the west dramatically re-arms Ukraine, boasts their economy, and do whatever we can to encourage Russia to stay home. The real problem with a peace agreement with Russia is how to trust Russia to fulfill their obligations. Russia is not trustworthy.
