How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine can win this war if we let them. They have used what we have given them to their utmost capabilities. But when you are restricted to the range of artillery and HIMARS by a timid US president, you are confined to a bloody and unnecessarily drawn out battle one kilometer at a time. Perhaps between now and January, Ukraine will get more of what it needs to properly execute this war.

Ukraine will build a professional armed forces. They were prior to this year and they will continue to do so. As long as the US does not put some fucktard in the Oval Office, the US will assist them. It is unlikely Russia will have anything approaching a professional armed forces anytime soon. Even with Putin gone, his likely successor will be just another corrupt asshole who will do little more than take his turn looting the country. Russia has been reduced to little more than and will remain a belligerent nation with nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.

And what would any peace agreement with Russia be worth? Nothing. Now is not the time to hesitate. All eastern European nations that unhinged Russians believe they are somehow entitled to bully should be assisted in training their armed forces and upgrading their equipment to the extent possible. Putin's idiocy has presented us with the opportunity to put Russia in a box. We shouldn't let it pass.

We've tried time and again to offer an olive branch to nations such as Russia and China and where has it gotten us?

I 100% agree with all your post. With the small exception that I think that you're being a little harsh on Joe. I'm not a Biden honk. However, I think that he and his administration has done a masterful job of giving enough aid to Ukraine so that it can defend itself while not starting WW3, while at the same time motivating the word to rally around Ukraine. It's been incredibly underrated how Nato has rallied behind Ukraine. Think of all personalities and differing opinions in the west, and yet we've been pretty united in the goal of stopping Russian imperialism. We need to do more. But we are together and have the same goals. But I've always said that it's China that is driving Russia. The Biden administration has been working on China (and India) and all of sudden those talks are showing results. And we're hearing that not only is China severely pushing back on Russia using nuclear weapons; but they are also starting to push Putin to real peace talks. That's a game changer. IMO, Biden is doing a fabulous job regarding foreign policy IMO.

 

[Elixir]

Peace talks?
no.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine can win this war if we let them. They have used what we have given them to their utmost capabilities. But when you are restricted to the range of artillery and HIMARS by a timid US president, you are confined to a bloody and unnecessarily drawn out battle one kilometer at a time. Perhaps between now and January, Ukraine will get more of what it needs to properly execute this war.

Ukraine will build a professional armed forces. They were prior to this year and they will continue to do so. As long as the US does not put some fucktard in the Oval Office, the US will assist them. It is unlikely Russia will have anything approaching a professional armed forces anytime soon. Even with Putin gone, his likely successor will be just another corrupt asshole who will do little more than take his turn looting the country. Russia has been reduced to little more than and will remain a belligerent nation with nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.

And what would any peace agreement with Russia be worth? Nothing. Now is not the time to hesitate. All eastern European nations that unhinged Russians believe they are somehow entitled to bully should be assisted in training their armed forces and upgrading their equipment to the extent possible. Putin's idiocy has presented us with the opportunity to put Russia in a box. We shouldn't let it pass.

We've tried time and again to offer an olive branch to nations such as Russia and China and where has it gotten us?

I 100% agree with all your post. With the small exception that I think that you're being a little harsh on Joe. I'm not a Biden honk. However, I think that he and his administration has done a masterful job of giving enough aid to Ukraine so that it can defend itself while not starting WW3, while at the same time motivating the word to rally around Ukraine. It's been incredibly underrated how Nato has rallied behind Ukraine. Think of all personalities and differing opinions in the west, and yet we've been pretty united in the goal of stopping Russian imperialism. We need to do more. But we are together and have the same goals. But I've always said that it's China that is driving Russia. The Biden administration has been working on China (and India) and all of sudden those talks are showing results. And we're hearing that not only is China severely pushing back on Russia using nuclear weapons; but they are also starting to push Putin to real peace talks. That's a game changer. IMO, Biden is doing a fabulous job regarding foreign policy IMO.

Not that Putin should be the standard for how we conduct ourselves but it seems like we are fighting this war on two completely separate levels. To give Ukraine the capacity to strike more at what Russia is targeting civilian infrastructure with should be fair in anyone's eyes. I agree that Biden and friends of Ukraine have done well in assisting Ukraine, but "enough"? Surely giving the Ukrainians the ability to strike deeper at military targets is fair. The Ukrainians conduct thus far satisfies me that they would not use these weapons in any other manner than to strike valid targets.
I think the administration is viewing this with regards to how Putin might respond rather than what is the right and proper thing to do in the moment.

 

[Patooka]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

I can't help but point out that every single time you have been skeptical of Ukraine's chances your estimates have been...unfounded.

 

[ZiprHead]

I think we should send them some longer range artillary. You can't use it on Russia but, hey, mistakes happen. Look at what happened in Poland.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

The battle on the ground isn't going poorly, but Russia has always had the capabilities to fire missiles and rock Ukraine very hard. Russia was always holding back a bit. They've loosened up that discretion and Zelensky is wanting NATO to plug up the sky... but NATO won't do that. It creates too easy a path to war this planet can't handle.

Russia has a supply problem with those missiles.

 

[SLD]

Ukrainian Army explaining how bad the Russians are. They’re just a lot of them.

Ukrainian Tanks Take On Inexperienced Russian Conscripts In The Kharkiv Region

Ukrainian tank crews on the front line are fighting against recently mobilized Russian troops. They say Russia's reinforcements are thrown into battle often without proper experience or equipment, and that dead Russian troops are immediately replaced by new draftees.

www.rferl.org

 

[Swammerdami]

Ukraine can win this war if we let them. They have used what we have given them to their utmost capabilities. But when you are restricted to the range of artillery and HIMARS by a timid US president, you are confined to a bloody and unnecessarily drawn out battle one kilometer at a time. Perhaps between now and January, Ukraine will get more of what it needs to properly execute this war.

Ukraine will build a professional armed forces. They were prior to this year and they will continue to do so. As long as the US does not put some fucktard in the Oval Office, the US will assist them. It is unlikely Russia will have anything approaching a professional armed forces anytime soon. Even with Putin gone, his likely successor will be just another corrupt asshole who will do little more than take his turn looting the country. Russia has been reduced to little more than and will remain a belligerent nation with nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.

And what would any peace agreement with Russia be worth? Nothing. Now is not the time to hesitate. All eastern European nations that unhinged Russians believe they are somehow entitled to bully should be assisted in training their armed forces and upgrading their equipment to the extent possible. Putin's idiocy has presented us with the opportunity to put Russia in a box. We shouldn't let it pass.

We've tried time and again to offer an olive branch to nations such as Russia and China and where has it gotten us?

I 100% agree with all your post. With the small exception that I think that you're being a little harsh on Joe. I'm not a Biden honk. However, I think that he and his administration has done a masterful job of giving enough aid to Ukraine so that it can defend itself while not starting WW3, while at the same time motivating the word to rally around Ukraine. It's been incredibly underrated how Nato has rallied behind Ukraine. Think of all personalities and differing opinions in the west, and yet we've been pretty united in the goal of stopping Russian imperialism. We need to do more. But we are together and have the same goals. But I've always said that it's China that is driving Russia. The Biden administration has been working on China (and India) and all of sudden those talks are showing results. And we're hearing that not only is China severely pushing back on Russia using nuclear weapons; but they are also starting to push Putin to real peace talks. That's a game changer. IMO, Biden is doing a fabulous job regarding foreign policy IMO.

I like this post. I am proud of the job Biden is doing.

My main source of news is this message board! How is Biden's stance in Ukraine playing out with the various political factions? My impression is that the extreme Left has many peace-niks and the extreme Right, bamboozled by the Orange psychopath, is allied with Putin; so is Biden more pro-Ukraine than any faction?

Biden must tread carefully: There IS a very real danger of nuclear war. The rulers of the Soviet Union, whatever their faults, were organized, rational, and subject to checks and balances. The same is not true of individual megalomaniacs like Kim or Putin.

 

[Jayjay]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

I can't help but point out that every single time you have been skeptical of Ukraine's chances your estimates have been...unfounded.

I'd estimate my own prediction record as at least 20%.

But that number isn't based on anything either.

 

[DrZoidberg]

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

I've always been for an intervention. But now when Russia is systematicaly destroying Ukrainian power infrastructure I'd say we need to get involved for humanitarian reasons.

I think not getting involved is a greater risk to world peace than waiting.

Comments?

 

[Patooka]

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

Huh? You serious? Countries all over have been throwing kit to Ukraine. Let's put something in perspective; the US alone implemented a Ukraine Supplemental Funding Bill months ago worth $40 Billion. Russia's defense spending in total last year was about $96 billion.

In total. There is a very real chance Russia must pull every soldier from all their borders, all their embassies and all the tasks just to keep up in Ukraine. There's a reason they're rolling out with T-72s and not T-80s.

This invasion has a very clear good side (defenders) and a very clear bad side (invaders). Much like a children's cartoon. Despite that, this isn't a children's cartoon and won't get resolved in 30 mins plus ads. The good guys are getting what they need. Just because the effects aren't immediate doesn't mean it's not happening.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukrainian Army explaining how bad the Russians are. They’re just a lot of them.

Ukrainian Tanks Take On Inexperienced Russian Conscripts In The Kharkiv Region

Ukrainian tank crews on the front line are fighting against recently mobilized Russian troops. They say Russia's reinforcements are thrown into battle often without proper experience or equipment, and that dead Russian troops are immediately replaced by new draftees.

www.rferl.org

Malcolm Nance, who's been over there fighting with the International Foreign Legion, said when they go out on patrol, they are capturing so many Russians they have to bring a hundred zip ties with them on each patrol.

 

[DrZoidberg]

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

I've always been for an intervention. But now when Russia is systematicaly destroying Ukrainian power infrastructure I'd say we need to get involved for humanitarian reasons.

I think not getting involved is a greater risk to world peace than waiting.

Comments?

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

Huh? You serious? Countries all over have been throwing kit to Ukraine. Let's put something in perspective; the US alone implemented a Ukraine Supplemental Funding Bill months ago worth $40 Billion. Russia's defense spending in total last year was about $96 billion.

In total. There is a very real chance Russia must pull every soldier from all their borders, all their embassies and all the tasks just to keep up in Ukraine. There's a reason they're rolling out with T-72s and not T-80s.

This invasion has a very clear good side (defenders) and a very clear bad side (invaders). Much like a children's cartoon. Despite that, this isn't a children's cartoon and won't get resolved in 30 mins plus ads. The good guys are getting what they need. Just because the effects aren't immediate doesn't mean it's not happening.

If the west would deploy our aircraft we could give Ukraine total air superiority and bomb the shit out of Russian positions. It could be over fast.

 

[Elixir]

If the west would deploy our aircraft we could give Ukraine total air superiority and bomb the shit out of Russian positions. It could be over fast.

What would happen in Crimea then?
At this point taking it back is necessary.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian Army explaining how bad the Russians are. They’re just a lot of them.

Ukrainian Tanks Take On Inexperienced Russian Conscripts In The Kharkiv Region

Ukrainian tank crews on the front line are fighting against recently mobilized Russian troops. They say Russia's reinforcements are thrown into battle often without proper experience or equipment, and that dead Russian troops are immediately replaced by new draftees.

www.rferl.org

Malcolm Nance, who's been over there fighting with the International Foreign Legion, said when they go out on patrol, they are capturing so many Russians they have to bring a hundred zip ties with them on each patrol.

I guess these guys didn't have enough zip ties:

Russia accuses Ukraine of executing more than 10 POWs

Russia’s defence ministry cited a video circulating on social media which shows the execution of 12 soldiers.

www.aljazeera.com

(EDIT: The reason for the execution was apparently that there was one more Russian guy in the building who came out firing. That's where the video ends. It seems plausible that Ukrainians killed him, and then executed the others. Potential war crime.)

 

[steve_bank]

And now a commerciall break from Capatin Obvious.

Putin accusing Ukraine of war crimes while systematically tryng to eradicate Ukrinians as a a people?

The video even if authentic is for Russian media propaganda. Putin is not speaking to us, he is always speaking to the Russian people.

I read a number of books on WWII. During D Day the Germans hung captured paratroopers upside down along rroads with their throats cut.

For the Americans on Omaha beach as it got brutal it became 'take no prisoners' for a period.

So, an army invades your country, systematically attacks civilians, destroys energy and food production, and you are supposed to be nice and play war by a set of rules? I don't think so.

In WWII Pacific island campaigns fanatical Japanese soldiers and civilians holed up in caves refusing to surrender. Gasoline and explosives were used to kill them.

The Geneva Conventions came about in the context of 19th century war. Professional armies lined up and went at each oter.

Anyone who is trying to kill you, all your family, and all your friends gives up the right to any snese of motality and fiarness.

 

[Jayjay]

And now a commerciall break from Capatin Obvious.

Putin accusing Ukraine of war crimes while systematically tryng to eradicate Ukrinians as a a people?

The video even if authentic is for Russian media propaganda. Putin is not speaking to us, he is always speaking to the Russian people.

I read a number of books on WWII. During D Day the Germans hung captured paratroopers upside down along rroads with their throats cut.

For the Americans on Omaha beach as it got brutal it became 'take no prisoners' for a period.

So, an army invades your country, systematically attacks civilians, destroys energy and food production, and you are supposed to be nice and play war by a set of rules? I don't think so.

In WWII Pacific island campaigns fanatical Japanese soldiers and civilians holed up in caves refusing to surrender. Gasoline and explosives were used to kill them.

The Geneva Conventions came about in the context of 19th century war. Professional armies lined up and went at each oter.

Anyone who is trying to kill you, all your family, and all your friends gives up the right to any snese of motality and fiarness.

Precisely.

I've said it before: war is always a crime. We're talking about a situation where one country forcibly, by use of violence, tries to permanently annex parts of another country (or sometimes the whole country). If the very premise of the situation is that rules are tossed out the window, we can't expect either side to come through the ordeal with a perfect humanitarian record.

 

[Patooka]

I've said it before: war is always a crime. We're talking about a situation where one country forcibly, by use of violence, tries to permanently annex parts of another country (or sometimes the whole country). If the very premise of the situation is that rules are tossed out the window, we can't expect either side to come through the ordeal with a perfect humanitarian record.

 

[bilby]

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

I've always been for an intervention. But now when Russia is systematicaly destroying Ukrainian power infrastructure I'd say we need to get involved for humanitarian reasons.

I think not getting involved is a greater risk to world peace than waiting.

Comments?

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

Huh? You serious? Countries all over have been throwing kit to Ukraine. Let's put something in perspective; the US alone implemented a Ukraine Supplemental Funding Bill months ago worth $40 Billion. Russia's defense spending in total last year was about $96 billion.

In total. There is a very real chance Russia must pull every soldier from all their borders, all their embassies and all the tasks just to keep up in Ukraine. There's a reason they're rolling out with T-72s and not T-80s.

This invasion has a very clear good side (defenders) and a very clear bad side (invaders). Much like a children's cartoon. Despite that, this isn't a children's cartoon and won't get resolved in 30 mins plus ads. The good guys are getting what they need. Just because the effects aren't immediate doesn't mean it's not happening.

If the west would deploy our aircraft we could give Ukraine total air superiority and bomb the shit out of Russian positions. It could be over fast.

Many of those Russian positions are artillery batteries on the Russian side of the Ukraine/Russia border.

If you think NATO aircraft conducting bombing raids inside the Russian Federation wouldn't inspire Putin to launch nuclear strikes against NATO, then it's a good idea. But given the consequences if you are wrong, you're going need some extremely compelling reasons for that presumption on your part before I will be comfortable with supporting your plan.

 

[DrZoidberg]

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

I've always been for an intervention. But now when Russia is systematicaly destroying Ukrainian power infrastructure I'd say we need to get involved for humanitarian reasons.

I think not getting involved is a greater risk to world peace than waiting.

Comments?

So how long time do we (the west) wait before deciding that enough is enough and help Ukraine push Russia out?

Huh? You serious? Countries all over have been throwing kit to Ukraine. Let's put something in perspective; the US alone implemented a Ukraine Supplemental Funding Bill months ago worth $40 Billion. Russia's defense spending in total last year was about $96 billion.

In total. There is a very real chance Russia must pull every soldier from all their borders, all their embassies and all the tasks just to keep up in Ukraine. There's a reason they're rolling out with T-72s and not T-80s.

This invasion has a very clear good side (defenders) and a very clear bad side (invaders). Much like a children's cartoon. Despite that, this isn't a children's cartoon and won't get resolved in 30 mins plus ads. The good guys are getting what they need. Just because the effects aren't immediate doesn't mean it's not happening.

If the west would deploy our aircraft we could give Ukraine total air superiority and bomb the shit out of Russian positions. It could be over fast.

Many of those Russian positions are artillery batteries on the Russian side of the Ukraine/Russia border.

If you think NATO aircraft conducting bombing raids inside the Russian Federation wouldn't inspire Putin to launch nuclear strikes against NATO, then it's a good idea. But given the consequences if you are wrong, you're going need some extremely compelling reasons for that presumption on your part before I will be comfortable with supporting your plan.

All you are doing is inflating the value of nuclear weapons. And that makes the world more dangerous. We have to act as if the nuclear weapons don't exist.

The thing with nuclear weapons is that they're so destructive that they negate most of any gains gotten from a war. So there's an inbuilt incentive against using them even if you have them.

I say, fuck it.