How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

What could go wrong?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

What could go wrong?

And what could go right? Who if anyone expected the Putinistas to be so incompetent. The world was expecting a Putin takeover in days. Ukrainians are like the Spartans in how they fight. They deserve our help and our optimism. They've earned it.

 

[Jayjay]

What could go wrong?

And what could go right? Who if anyone expected the Putinistas to be so incompetent. The world was expecting a Putin takeover in days. Ukrainians are like the Spartans in how they fight. They deserve our help and our optimism. They've earned it.

I was referring to the plan of a clandestine operation to sabotage oil tankers in foreign ports (or worse, at sea). That could go sideways in so many different ways, both politically and environmentally.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

Yeah, I've been thinking their port facilities would make a good target. LNG terminals should make some big fireworks.

I'd stick to military targets. Going after a commodity the world uses tends to have an outsized effect.
On the other hand, Europe's tanks are full and there are about 40 LNG tankers sitting off Europe's coasts waiting and hoping for better prices.

They use gas supply as a weapon, I think their export facilities become military targets.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It is a stalemate.

Pundits are pointing out that Putin has no off ramp that will allow him to save face and sell a negotiated settlement to his supporters.

Ukraine so fr haid they will settle for nothing less than complete withdrawal including Crimea and security for Ukrainian borders. Non starters for Putin. Compering what Ukraine has suffered I doubt they will accept anything less than complete withdrawl, plus reparations.

Even if Russian troops are pushed back across the border Putin can still rain cheap drones down on Ukranian infrastructure. It will be hrd fpr them to rebuild.

Putin has to be stopped some way, and I don't see how.

The Pentagon Papers showed that around 1967 the Pentagon knew there was no military solution in Vietnam yet we fought on. Eventualy Nixon came up with Vietnamization and 'peace with honor', and sold it to congress and the people.

Putin painted himself into a corner from the start.

It mae turn out to be one of those historical unendng condflits. We had Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Very costly and had no net gian for us.

Pakistan vs India. Iran vs Saudi Arabia.

It seems clear we do not want Ukraine to carry the fight into Russia. That puts Ukraine between a rock and a hard place.

I think Putin can spin this to the Russians. He can play the victim card. He can say that Russia tried stopping the Ukrainian Nazis but failed because the west ganged up on Russia to protect Nazis. The west are Nazis.. etc etc. That's pretty much his narrative now. He's already created a narrative where NATO is the new Nazi Germany/Napoleon.

Yes, it's a stalemate. That's why I think it's time for the west to commit troops now. Just to go all in. Like we did with Saddam in 1991. Just to get this war over with. If we hit Russia with a hammer hard enough he will stop fighting. I don't think Russia will use nukes. If he does I see no scenario where it will make Putin look good. Now when Putin is systematically targetting civilian infrastructure for power, I think Russia is officially a terrorist-state and we don't have to care if we hurt their feelings.

The thing with Russia is that it's so hopelessly corrupt that they will never never never be wealthy enough to threaten a united west. The country is a basket case. We can swat Putin like a fly. If we decide to.

Except he has nukes. And that’s the problem.

The nukes won't help him win. It's just mutally guaranteed anhilation. It's pointless for him to use them. If he would try, I somehow doubt the Russian military will let him. They're not lunatics.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Maybe we could sink several Russian oil tankers heading towards China or India with submarines, and then let Ukraine take credit for it.

Nannh. Too environmentally dangerous. Better to send in Ukrainian saboteurs and destroy their export facilities. We could deliver them by submarine. And then deny it. Who us? We don’t know how they got there!

Yeah, I've been thinking their port facilities would make a good target. LNG terminals should make some big fireworks.

I'd stick to military targets. Going after a commodity the world uses tends to have an outsized effect.
On the other hand, Europe's tanks are full and there are about 40 LNG tankers sitting off Europe's coasts waiting and hoping for better prices.

They use gas supply as a weapon, I think their export facilities become military targets.

The use of that weapon has backfired spectacularly. Putin made a gamble that didn't pay off. Rather the opposite. He assumed Europeans were weak and would back down rather than put up with any discomfort. It didn't pan out for him.

 

[steve_bank]

Blowing up an oil tanker in a port causing an ecological disaster. Sounds like an excellent strategy. Certain to gain support for Ukraine ...

Blow up tankers, what does Russia do about grain shipments?

So far globaly Ukraine has the high moral ground. Except for a few states Putin is the bad guy.

 

[Elixir]

Except for a few states Putin is the bad guy.

A few States and the American House of Representatives.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Blowing up an oil tanker in a port causing an ecological disaster. Sounds like an excellent strategy. Certain to gain support for Ukraine ...

Blow up tankers, what does Russia do about grain shipments?

So far globaly Ukraine has the high moral ground. Except for a few states Putin is the bad guy.

Note that I said the gas terminals, not oil facilities. As you say, hitting oil stuff is a big ecological mess.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Increasingly it looks like the main battle will move east of Zaporizhzhia along a northern/southern line between it and Donetsk. Near as I can figure, everyone is pretty much stuck in the mud for now. Wait'll the ground freezes up and Ukrainian forces can move on the ill-equipped and demoralized Russian forces. This will put Mariupol/Melitopol supply lines within range.

Meanwhile in the south, Russia is preparing for the eventual loss of supply lines through Armiansk, one of the few northern routes out of Crimea as it draws within range of Ukrainian HIMARS.

Look at the distances for these two supply lines. Is it any wonder Ukraine is screaming for longer range weapons?

Now, if all this can happen this winter before Russia can get the Kerch bridge operational (vehicle traffic in March, trains not until September) and the Republican controlled House doesn't inhibit Ukrainian supply lines, Ukrainian forces may just choke off Crimea altogether.

 

[Jayjay]

I think Ukraine needs to be able to turn the tide in Donetsk and Luhansk before it can dream about Crimea. Right now it isn't looking very good. But longer range missiles would definitely help.

 

[SLD]

Blowing up an oil tanker in a port causing an ecological disaster. Sounds like an excellent strategy. Certain to gain support for Ukraine ...

Blow up tankers, what does Russia do about grain shipments?

So far globaly Ukraine has the high moral ground. Except for a few states Putin is the bad guy.

Note that I said the gas terminals, not oil facilities. As you say, hitting oil stuff is a big ecological mess.

But is there a way to sabotage them without creating an ecological mess? Actually we could sabotage oil tankers without sinking them. But we’d need someone on the inside.

We simply need to find creative ways to stop their exports of oil. Without oil, Russia’s economy collapses.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The casuality numbers are highly questionable. Both sides have an incentive to downplay losses. For all we know Ukraine is being bled dry of manpower. There's also the issue of combat fatigue. There's a few comparative studies of effectiveness of troops. Green troops suck. Veterans with up to 200 days of combat are highly effective. But then combat fatigue sets in and they get worse... and worse and worse. That's about six months of fighting every day. How much longer are the Ukrainian soldiers capable of fighting effectively?

Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Combat stress reaction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Everybody is cheering for Ukraine. We love an undedog story. But Ukraine is an underdog. Goliath might curb stomp them at any moment. I think it's dangerous to see the success of Ukraine as inevitable. I maintain that we (the western allies) need to do something quickly to keep Ukraine from falling apart. More than just sending bullets and rockets.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems like there is yet another massive barrage of cruise missiles hitting civilian infrastructure today. It's either a sign of desperation, or a sign that Russia's stockpiles are nowhere near depleted and they can go on for quite a while.

 

[Jayjay]

The casuality numbers are highly questionable. Both sides have an incentive to downplay losses. For all we know Ukraine is being bled dry of manpower. There's also the issue of combat fatigue. There's a few comparative studies of effectiveness of troops. Green troops suck. Veterans with up to 200 days of combat are highly effective. But then combat fatigue sets in and they get worse... and worse and worse. That's about six months of fighting every day. How much longer are the Ukrainian soldiers capable of fighting effectively?

Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Combat stress reaction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Everybody is cheering for Ukraine. We love an undedog story. But Ukraine is an underdog. Goliath might curb stomp them at any moment. I think it's dangerous to see the success of Ukraine as inevitable. I maintain that we (the western allies) need to do something quickly to keep Ukraine from falling apart. More than just sending bullets and rockets.

Exactly. If there is one word to describe western attitude towards the war, it's complacency. We think that if we just sit back and wait, Ukraine will win somehow because good will triumph over evil. But that's nonsense.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It seems like there is yet another massive barrage of cruise missiles hitting civilian infrastructure today. It's either a sign of desperation, or a sign that Russia's stockpiles are nowhere near depleted and they can go on for quite a while.

Russia is fighting for control over the natural gas deposits under Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea and Black sea. Putin doesn't care what is alive on top of the ground. I think he's cool with making Ukraine an uninhabitable wasteland. Or rather, I think the strategy is to desperately cling to the gains Russia already has now, and Putin is hoping that his relentless terror by rocket attacks will make Ukraine agree to a peace with the current borders intact.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It seems like there is yet another massive barrage of cruise missiles hitting civilian infrastructure today. It's either a sign of desperation, or a sign that Russia's stockpiles are nowhere near depleted and they can go on for quite a while.

Russia is fighting for control over the natural gas deposits under Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea and Black sea. Putin doesn't care what is alive on top of the ground. I think he's cool with making Ukraine an uninhabitable wasteland. Or rather, I think the strategy is to desperately cling to the gains Russia already has now, and Putin is hoping that his relentless terror by rocket attacks will make Ukraine agree to a peace with the current borders intact.

I believe that you are correct. Pre-2014, Ukraine was in discussions to start developing the gas fields in Ukraine. And then Russia attacks, takes away Crimea and all the gas fields in the sea around Crimea. Massive gas finds are confirmed in Northern Kiev and Donbass. Russia invades again. This invasion was never about saving the world from Nazis and Zoombies (that is only for dummies and the gullible). It was always about Putler and his henchmen stealing another country's resources. Putler wants to be the sole source of energy to Europe. Russia has to be stopped.

 

[bilby]

The casuality numbers are highly questionable. Both sides have an incentive to downplay losses. For all we know Ukraine is being bled dry of manpower. There's also the issue of combat fatigue. There's a few comparative studies of effectiveness of troops. Green troops suck. Veterans with up to 200 days of combat are highly effective. But then combat fatigue sets in and they get worse... and worse and worse. That's about six months of fighting every day. How much longer are the Ukrainian soldiers capable of fighting effectively?

Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Combat stress reaction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Everybody is cheering for Ukraine. We love an undedog story. But Ukraine is an underdog. Goliath might curb stomp them at any moment. I think it's dangerous to see the success of Ukraine as inevitable. I maintain that we (the western allies) need to do something quickly to keep Ukraine from falling apart. More than just sending bullets and rockets.

Exactly. If there is one word to describe western attitude towards the war, it's complacency. We think that if we just sit back and wait, Ukraine will win somehow because good will triumph over evil. But that's nonsense.

Good always triumphs over evil in the end. Have you learned nothing from all those Hollywood movies??

 

[DrZoidberg]

The casuality numbers are highly questionable. Both sides have an incentive to downplay losses. For all we know Ukraine is being bled dry of manpower. There's also the issue of combat fatigue. There's a few comparative studies of effectiveness of troops. Green troops suck. Veterans with up to 200 days of combat are highly effective. But then combat fatigue sets in and they get worse... and worse and worse. That's about six months of fighting every day. How much longer are the Ukrainian soldiers capable of fighting effectively?

Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Combat stress reaction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Everybody is cheering for Ukraine. We love an undedog story. But Ukraine is an underdog. Goliath might curb stomp them at any moment. I think it's dangerous to see the success of Ukraine as inevitable. I maintain that we (the western allies) need to do something quickly to keep Ukraine from falling apart. More than just sending bullets and rockets.

Exactly. If there is one word to describe western attitude towards the war, it's complacency. We think that if we just sit back and wait, Ukraine will win somehow because good will triumph over evil. But that's nonsense.

I don't think that is what the west is doing. I think the west is hedging their bets. Russia has a lot of natural resources that the west wants. They don't want to enter into a war against someone who has things they might want in the future. So they impose sanctions, ie toothless whining. With the current strategy; if Ukraine wins, great. If Russia wins, great. The west doesn't care if we, in the future, buy Ukrainian gas from Ukraine or Russia. Putin is 70 years old. He's going to leave the stage within a decade or so. When he's gone we will wipe the slate clean (like we did when Stalin died) and start over. We don't want to start a conflict that will create bitter tensions for generations to come (ie after Putin is gone).

And more importantly, following the exit of Putin ANYTHING can happen. Anything. Putin has created a system totally dependent on him at the top. He has no dynasty to take over. His nation is run by a (mostly) Jewish maffia. Russians hate Jews. So obviously they're not going to take control of the country. This BTW isn't an antisemetic conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy. But there's nothing hidden about it. He has put Jews in control because they know they're dependent on Putin's protection to stay in power. Without the protection of the Russian ruler (whoever that is) they're fucked. This system was created by Brehznev (because he thought communism sucked and wanted a life of fucking hookers drunk on champagne).

There's a bunch of powerful guys (ex-communist establishment) waiting in the wings in Putin's clique. But none of them is strong enough to rest power for themselves (by Putin's design). After Putin the power struggles could get really ugly. And something a friendly west could potentially exploit.

Not to mention that Ukraine has the same, bizarrely corrupt, system as Russia, also run mostly by the maffia. A maffia unfettered by national borders and closely enmeshed into the Russian maffia. There is no guarantee that backing Ukraine will pay-off in the long run. Helping Ukraine might just as well backfire and lead to the rise to power of some Putin-like despot. Zelenskyy might be just that guy. We have no reason to trust him.

I think this is what is happening. The western powers have every reason to be wary. Both Ukraine and Russia are a complete mess (in every way). No matter what horse we bet on, it can go horribly wrong.

Knowing this, I still think we should get involved and push Russia out. Right now the Ukrainian people are suffering. The sooner this war ends the better. That's enough of a reason to get involved IMHO.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

According to Ukraine's armed forces, Russia's military is circulating a document called "Conclusions of the war with NATO in Ukraine," which declares that 5 million Russian troops must be deployed in order for Russia to win, Ukrayinska Pravda reports.
...

Well, good luck with that. Russia already cannot equip and supply their wretched conscripts in Ukraine as is. Could this be the way Russia's military breaks some bad news to Putin? "We cannot win until YOU fix the underlying problems of lack of weapons, supplies and training 5 million conscripts while our economy collapses."

Russia says it will need 5 million troops for victory in Ukraine

According to Ukraine's armed forces, Russia's military is circulating a document called "Conclusions of the war with NATO in Ukraine," which declares that 5 million Russian troops must be deployed in order for Russia to win, Ukrayinska Pravda reports. During a briefing, deputy head of the Main...

www.rawstory.com