How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Make peace, not war The Kremlin’s internal polling shows that more than half of Russians now favor negotiations with Ukraine, while only a quarter want to continue the invasion — Meduza

Article by Andrey Pertsev. Translation by Anna Razumnaya.

meduza.io

Russia’s ongoing military defeats in Ukraine and the social burden of mobilization are rapidly cooling the public’s support for the war. Meduza has gained access to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin “for internal use only.” According to the study conducted by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine, while only a quarter of the respondents still support continuing the war.

Similar shift that was observed in the Levada polls earlier. One needs to consider though that "peace talks" could mean also that Russians think they can just freeze the front and keep everything they've annexed, which is far from what Ukraine would accept at this time. But anyway it's still a positive development.

Waiting for Russian people to wake up and start complaining more loudly will take years though. In the meantime, Ukraine needs more weapons, training, and better tactics. Russia isn't going to get any weaker in time.

The Putinistas are demanding that Ukraine cede all occupied territory and more, rewrite its constitution so that is can never join NATO, and disarm. And that's before it sits down to negotiate. "Negotiations" is a Kremlin ploy. They want to win the propaganda battle but are not interested in ending the war. I think this is the pablum that Russians are consuming because they don't hear much else or are terrorized into not speaking up.

Agreed, we need to arm Ukraine to the teeth so that it can strike inside the Russian border at military targets.

 

[lpetrich]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Apparently, a Russian base near the Svatove-Kreminna front has been overrun by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Svatove #Kreminna (vid link)" / Twitter

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "IZIUM AXIS /1730 UTC 26 NOV/ UKR forces advance to within small arms range of P-66 HWY. This effectively interdicts a 15 km section of roadway, cutting RU Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS) between Svatove and Kremenna. (pic link)" / Twitter


松野 義孝 on Twitter: "ウクライナ情勢
November 30, 2022 | 8:00 pm ET
A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operation on the 「Kinburn Spit」 (links)" / Twitter
noting
Ukraine Invasion Updates | Critical Threats

Seems like fighting there is still continuing.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

US poses existential threat to Russia, says Putin’s leading diplomat

Lavrov's insisting that Ukraine and the U.S. and NATO pose an existential threat to Russia is like Al Capone saying that the FBI poses an existential threat to Chicago. It's good propaganda but it's certainly bullshit.

 

[Jayjay]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Apparently, a Russian base near the Svatove-Kreminna front has been overrun by Ukrainian forces. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Svatove #Kreminna (vid link)" / Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1598274927769309185

This seems false, as the markings in the tanks match an earlier captured Russian positions in Kherson front:



Geolocation:



Bullshit is bullshit even when it comes from Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From ISW:

Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian force concentrations and logistics. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russian forces withdrew or are currently withdrawing personnel from Polohy, Myhailivka, and Inzhenerne in Zaporizhia Oblast.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian occupation officials in Burchak are conducting a census in preparation for future evacuation measures.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces in the previous days struck Russian force concentrations in Myrne, Tokmak, Inzhenerne, Polohy, Yasne, and Kinsky Rozdory in Zaporizhia Oblast.[43] Russian forces may be withdrawing personnel from positions closer to the frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast to reduce the impact of increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian manpower and equipment concentrations. The potential withdrawal from Polohy is particularly notable as the settlement lies at a critical road junction, and Russian forces would likely have a harder time defending Tokmak from potential Ukrainian operations without control of that junction. The withdrawal from a critical position may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend the entire frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast and are prioritizing where to concentrate forces. It is just as likely that Russian forces are reorienting their grouping in Zaporizhia Oblast and may move different personnel back into these settlements, however.

Not to toot my strategic horn but, told you so. I think this is the sweet spot to be to disrupt GLOCs supplying Russian forces in the south and hopefully starve the orcs out of the Zpaorizhzhia NPP area without it becoming one of the worse battlegrounds in history.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There are reports circulating that Russian Hitler fell down some steps and literally shit himself in the process alleging he is suffering from gastrointestinal cancer. Couldn't happen to a better guy but I always keep the radar up. How Russian Hitler's death will affect his war on Ukraine is anyone's guess but I hope it happens sooner than later.

 

[Copernicus]

There are reports circulating that Russian Hitler fell down some steps and literally shit himself in the process alleging he is suffering from gastrointestinal cancer. Couldn't happen to a better guy but I always keep the radar up. How Russian Hitler's death will affect his war on Ukraine is anyone's guess but I hope it happens sooner than later.

A lot of major news services are not covering this story, but it seems to be all over social media, the Murdoch-controlled media, and tabloid press. AFAICT, Reuters and the AP are not carrying it. It allegedly comes from sources inside the Kremlin, but I'd like to see the major news services carry it first, before I give it too much credibility.

Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over health grows: report​

 

[Jayjay]

There are reports circulating that Russian Hitler fell down some steps and literally shit himself in the process alleging he is suffering from gastrointestinal cancer. Couldn't happen to a better guy but I always keep the radar up. How Russian Hitler's death will affect his war on Ukraine is anyone's guess but I hope it happens sooner than later.

A lot of major news services are not covering this story, but it seems to be all over social media, the Murdoch-controlled media, and tabloid press. AFAICT, Reuters and the AP are not carrying it. It allegedly comes from sources inside the Kremlin, but I'd like to see the major news services carry it first, before I give it too much credibility.

Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over health grows: report​

The account is the latest from a Russian Telegram channel named General SVR (...)

This is not a reliable source. That channel has been chock full of speculation from Putin having cancer, participating in pagan rituals, to assassination attempts. There's a reason why "mainstream media" doesn't cover these stories.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Not to toot my strategic horn but, told you so. I think this is the sweet spot to be to disrupt GLOCs supplying Russian forces in the south and hopefully starve the orcs out of the Zpaorizhzhia NPP area without it becoming one of the worse battlegrounds in history.

Going after the supply lines seems to have been their primary strategy all along. They only attack when facing defenses that have been hollowed out by the lack of supplies.

 

[Copernicus]

Finnish PM Sana Marin has expressed the opinion that Europe by itself is too weak to take on Russia and that the US has been essential to Ukraine's defense. That will be music to the ears of most Americans, who like to think of their country as the savior of the world, but the EU and UK have been bearing the brunt of the sanctions. Anyway, I wonder what Jayjay's take on her statement is.

Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says​

 

[Jayjay]

Finnish PM Sana Marin has expressed the opinion that Europe by itself is too weak to take on Russia and that the US has been essential to Ukraine's defense. That will be music to the ears of most Americans, who like to think of their country as the savior of the world, but the EU and UK have been bearing the brunt of the sanctions. Anyway, I wonder what Jayjay's take on her statement is.

Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says​

She's just stating the obvious.

 

[barbos]

Look at what's happened on the ground--basically stationary followed by big leaps. Note that it's been Russia losing territory as time goes on.

OK, and Ukraine is loosing people. What do you think the end result will be?
And no, Russia does not lose territory. They leave it.

That's how Pootin spins it, doesn't make it so. Russian troops are leaving positions that would get them cut off and annihilated if they stayed.

That's how Pentagon itself describes it.

 

[barbos]

Meanwhile Ursulla von Nazi has blurted ukrainian regime losses (100k dead), then quickly edited it out. Europe is run by idiots.

 

[Copernicus]

Finnish PM Sana Marin has expressed the opinion that Europe by itself is too weak to take on Russia and that the US has been essential to Ukraine's defense. That will be music to the ears of most Americans, who like to think of their country as the savior of the world, but the EU and UK have been bearing the brunt of the sanctions. Anyway, I wonder what Jayjay's take on her statement is.

Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says​

She's just stating the obvious.

True, but I was thinking of this in relation to the visit of France's President Macron to the US a few days ago. France is deeply upset about the fact that the US has embarked on a policy of subsidizing certain US industries (e.g. semiconductors) and that this has the potential of hurting EU enterprises. (Of course, Europe has been doing the same thing for many years in subsidizing industries like aerospace manufacturing, e.g. Airbus Industries.) It seems to me that the UK and Germany have been doing a lot to support the Ukrainians, but France seems to have done very little. I was just wondering about the timing of Marin's public statement, which coincided with Macron's visit. Maybe I'm reading too much into it to think that she was perhaps aiming a message at France. Germany seems to have faded considerably with the retirement of Merkel, leaving France perhaps as more in the position of leadership in the EU. There is talk of a trade war between the US and the EU lately, and France is at the forefront of advocating for that.

 

[barbos]

So what's the plan? Invade Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova and then attack Kherson from the east?

Well, during WW2 Red Army did not cross Dnepr, yet they somehow managed to clear Kherson of nazis.

Bullshit. They're hitting apartment buildings, convenience stores, and art museums (though of course Russians looted the museum before retreating so there probably wasn't anything left there of value).

Nope, they don't hit any of these useless targets. They hit electric grid.

 

[Jayjay]

Meanwhile Ursulla von Nazi has blurted ukrainian regime losses (100k dead), then quickly edited it out. Europe is run by idiots.

Which was later explained as her meaning that it's the total number of casualties, dead and wounded. A stupid gaffe, but it's not like she would know the real number to begin with. Ukraine is not telling anyone, not even their closest allies, and certainly not the EU commission.

US General Mark Milley made a similar estimate a month ago, so that's possibly where von der Leyen got it:

100,000 Russian troops killed or injured in Ukraine, US says

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia's announced retreat from Kherson, a regional capital in southern Ukraine that it seized early in the war, and a potential stalemate in fighting over the winter could provide both countries an opportunity to negotiate peace, Army Gen.

apnews.com

He said as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians and “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war, now in its ninth month. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side,” Milley added.

 

[barbos]

General Milley have second thoughts about war with Russia.

 

[barbos]

Which was later explained as her meaning that it's the total number of casualties

Yes, she "explained". And only idiots would buy that "explanation".

US General Mark Milley made a similar estimate a month ago

He is a filthy liar. He can't make estimates. Other people make estimates. He pulled his estimate from his filthy ass. Generally aggreed figure of ukranian losses is what Ursulla von Nazi said - 100K dead for ukrainian. Russian losses are ~8 times lower.
100K ukrainian losses is what ukrainian regime reports to their NATO masters and Ursulla simply blurted it out. She has such tendency.

 

[Jayjay]

So what's the plan? Invade Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova and then attack Kherson from the east?

Well, during WW2 Red Army did not cross Dnepr, yet they somehow managed to clear Kherson of nazis.

Kherson is already cleared of Russian nazis, by Ukraine. There are more nazis fighting on Russian side.

But this is about military occupation. Do tell, how will Russia take Kherson without crossing the river? Only way to do it is to capture Kyiv which is rather unlikely, but still more so than Kherson.

Bullshit. They're hitting apartment buildings, convenience stores, and art museums (though of course Russians looted the museum before retreating so there probably wasn't anything left there of value).

Nope, they don't hit any of these useless targets. They hit electric grid.

Typical of you. No evidence. I provided three links to obviously civilian targets. You have stuck your fingers in your ears and are shouting "lalalala can't hear you".

Of course, Russia also hits the electric grid as part of their campaign to punish civilians. Nobody's denying that. They have this silly notion as if hurting the civilian population is somehow going to make Ukraine surrender. Didn't work for Germans in London Blitz, didn't work for the allies in Dresden bombings, didn't work for USSR against Finland. It's just going to make the Ukrainians more determined to keep fighting back, and makes Ukraine's western allies more sympathetic towards giving more weapons and aid.

 

[Jayjay]

Which was later explained as her meaning that it's the total number of casualties

Yes, she "explained". And only idiots would buy that "explanation".

Regardless, she doesn't have access to any real casualty numbers. Disclosing information to the EU commission is basically the same as making the information public, and everyone knows that.

US General Mark Milley made a similar estimate a month ago

He is a filthy liar. He can't make estimates. Other people make estimates. He pulled his estimate from his filthy ass. Generally aggreed figure of ukranian losses is what Ursulla von Nazi said - 100K dead for ukrainian. Russian losses are ~8 times lower.

Nonsense. The official Kremlin numbers aren't reliable. Any outside estimates that have been made public show that Ukraine's number, while inflated, are still much closer to the truth. Russia's casualties aren't 90k dead like Ukraine is claiming, but could easily be half that.

Russia has a higher killed-to-wounded ratio though. So if both sides have 100k or so casualties, Russia has more KIA than Ukraine.