How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russian troop movements prove John Mearsheimer wrong

Despite realist scholar John Mearsheimer’s efforts to justify Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, first in 2014 after Moscow’s seizure of Crimea and now with Moscow's current onslaught, by blaming the West and NATO, Putin’s shifting of Russian troops away from NATO’s borders and into Ukraine proves Russia hardly felt threatened.

The article also discusses the possibility that Russian Hitler will invoke clause four of the Russian Federation's collective defense treaty, calling on other member nations to fight Russian Hitler's war and how that would never work.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russian troop movements prove John Mearsheimer wrong

Despite realist scholar John Mearsheimer’s efforts to justify Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, first in 2014 after Moscow’s seizure of Crimea and now with Moscow's current onslaught, by blaming the West and NATO, Putin’s shifting of Russian troops away from NATO’s borders and into Ukraine proves Russia hardly felt threatened.

The article also discusses the possibility that Russian Hitler will invoke clause four of the Russian Federation's collective defense treaty, calling on other member nations to fight Russian Hitler's war and how that would never work.

A this point, CSTO would more likely dissolve than come to the aid of Russia. Not even Belarus. As if Russia is being attacked because of Putin's bullshit annexation?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Against all odds, the truth grows in Russia.

From ISW:

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. Girkin posted on Telegram on December 6 to speak on his experiences in Ukraine for the first time since he announced he was leaving to join the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in October.[9] Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.[12] Several other prominent milbloggers amplified Girkin’s story and conclusions, emphasizing Girkin’s past leadership role in hostilities in Donbas in 2014.[13] This scathing critique of the Russian military leadership from one of the most vocal and well-known figureheads of the hyper-nationalist information space, who has now reportedly acquired first-hand experiences of the nuances of frontline life, is likely to exacerbate tension between Russian military leadership and milbloggers and may reignite fragmentation within the ultra-nationalist community itself.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Against all odds, the truth grows in Russia.

From ISW:

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. Girkin posted on Telegram on December 6 to speak on his experiences in Ukraine for the first time since he announced he was leaving to join the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in October.[9] Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.[12] Several other prominent milbloggers amplified Girkin’s story and conclusions, emphasizing Girkin’s past leadership role in hostilities in Donbas in 2014.[13] This scathing critique of the Russian military leadership from one of the most vocal and well-known figureheads of the hyper-nationalist information space, who has now reportedly acquired first-hand experiences of the nuances of frontline life, is likely to exacerbate tension between Russian military leadership and milbloggers and may reignite fragmentation within the ultra-nationalist community itself.

And Ukraine is successfully targeting military infrastructure inside Russia. I think this is a bit like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo, not much of military significance but of great political effect. I expect the Ukrainians to eventually start targeting some infrastructure in an attempt to bring the war home to Russians, infrastructure that directly supports the Russian Hitler's war on Ukraine.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Against all odds, the truth grows in Russia.

From ISW:

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. Girkin posted on Telegram on December 6 to speak on his experiences in Ukraine for the first time since he announced he was leaving to join the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in October.[9] Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.[12] Several other prominent milbloggers amplified Girkin’s story and conclusions, emphasizing Girkin’s past leadership role in hostilities in Donbas in 2014.[13] This scathing critique of the Russian military leadership from one of the most vocal and well-known figureheads of the hyper-nationalist information space, who has now reportedly acquired first-hand experiences of the nuances of frontline life, is likely to exacerbate tension between Russian military leadership and milbloggers and may reignite fragmentation within the ultra-nationalist community itself.

And Ukraine is successfully targeting military infrastructure inside Russia. I think this is a bit like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo, not much of military significance but of great political effect. I expect the Ukrainians to eventually start targeting some infrastructure in an attempt to bring the war home to Russians, infrastructure that directly supports the Russian Hitler's war on Ukraine.

I think the comparison to Doolittle is spot on. The US does not want Ukraine to attack inside Russia with American arms due to potential nuclear conflict. But I'd love to see some Russian civilians struggling in the freezing weather with no power like the Ukrainians.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And Ukraine is successfully targeting military infrastructure inside Russia. I think this is a bit like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo, not much of military significance but of great political effect. I expect the Ukrainians to eventually start targeting some infrastructure in an attempt to bring the war home to Russians, infrastructure that directly supports the Russian Hitler's war on Ukraine.

I think the comparison to Doolittle is spot on. The US does not want Ukraine to attack inside Russia with American arms due to potential nuclear conflict. But I'd love to see some Russian civilians struggling in the freezing weather with no power like the Ukrainians.

This is a tightrope act. Ukraine must make Russia tire of the war, without unifying the Russian people against Ukraine. Attacking Russian public infrastructure would like work against Ukrainian interests in making the Russian people pressure Putin to quit. Ukraine needs to make the Russian Leadership look weak and incompetent. Attacking air bases does that.

 

[Jayjay]

Against all odds, the truth grows in Russia.

From ISW:

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. Girkin posted on Telegram on December 6 to speak on his experiences in Ukraine for the first time since he announced he was leaving to join the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in October.[9] Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.[12] Several other prominent milbloggers amplified Girkin’s story and conclusions, emphasizing Girkin’s past leadership role in hostilities in Donbas in 2014.[13] This scathing critique of the Russian military leadership from one of the most vocal and well-known figureheads of the hyper-nationalist information space, who has now reportedly acquired first-hand experiences of the nuances of frontline life, is likely to exacerbate tension between Russian military leadership and milbloggers and may reignite fragmentation within the ultra-nationalist community itself.

And Ukraine is successfully targeting military infrastructure inside Russia. I think this is a bit like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo, not much of military significance but of great political effect. I expect the Ukrainians to eventually start targeting some infrastructure in an attempt to bring the war home to Russians, infrastructure that directly supports the Russian Hitler's war on Ukraine.

I think the reason why Ukraine has been successful in these strikes is because Russia has moved its air defense assets in Ukraine. Now it has to worry about bases in Russia also. No huge strategic difference, and in no way comparable to missile and kamikaze drone barrages that Russia is using against Ukraine, but the nagging feeling that Ukraine can operate so deep within Russia must be annoying to Putin.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Odd thing about the targeting within Russia is the immediate statement that Ukraine used Soviet era drones. Nothing else was known but they had that little tidbit of info right out of the gate. Curious. Hopefully they've got more of where that came from and these are getting modded to better put them on target. I haven't looked up any info on these "drones" yet. They're calling them drones so I assume there is some form of guidance. I wonder if there are vacuum tubes rattling around in these drones.

I guess it's this Buck Rogers looking thing:


US officials expect a lull in fighting over the winter. Ukraine states there will be no such lull. As well there shouldn't be. Ukraine states Russian conscripts coming onto the field now are better trained than the fodder Russia initially used to plug gaps in the line. Though they are still being fed into the fight in a piecemeal fashion precluding any significant push by Russian forces. If Ukraine is not going to be given the resources to take the fight to Russia, if US and European powers that be are content with it being a bloody slog, then Ukraine cannot afford to give Russia any additional time for training and gathering equipment.
And I wonder if the Kerch bridge is going to be open sooner rather than later. Supposedly the Russian Hitler took a drive across it recently. It'd be nice if Ukraine could hit it again, maybe for Christmas.

 

[Jayjay]

Videos have emerged from Ukrainian troops getting pummeled by artillery near Bakhmut. I'm not feeling optimistic about Ukraine's chances there, it's like a repeat of Popasna back in May. Both offenses being conducted by Wagner mercenaries, one of the most if not the most capable forces in Russian military. They get the most motivated troops (plus a bunch of convicts to use as cannon fodder), top-notch gear, but none of the soviet-style army bureaucracy.

Meanwhile, Germany is saying no to using Patriot system in western Ukraine, concerned it might hurt Putin's feelings.

 

[steve_bank]

In WWII the German Waffen SS was the elite military. Best of everything. Filled with motivated true believers in Nazi racism. They did not hesitate to exterminate.

As losses mounted the selection criteria lowered.

 

[bilby]

I'd love to see some Russian civilians struggling in the freezing weather with no power like the Ukrainians.

Why? What have Russian civilians done to deserve to suffer?

It's not like they have any say in whether Putin stays or goes, or any input or influence in his policy decisions.

Targeting civilians in a conflict against a dictatorship is counterproductive at best, and criminal at worst.

 

[steve_bank]

The fire bombing of Japan and Germany. The Dam Busters British attack on dams to flood the Ruhr River valley.

The idea that wars are fought between armies and civilians are left alone is to make war palatable for the nass of civilians.

If someone is trying to kill me there is no morality. I will do whatever it takes to protect myself.

Other than nukes there is not much more hurt Russia can put on Ukraine.

If Ukraine had the capacity they could and should hit Moscow.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I'd love to see some Russian civilians struggling in the freezing weather with no power like the Ukrainians.

Why? What have Russian civilians done to deserve to suffer?

It's not like they have any say in whether Putin stays or goes, or any input or influence in his policy decisions.

Targeting civilians in a conflict against a dictatorship is counterproductive at best, and criminal at worst.

Yes, Putler is to blame for the invasion. But you tell me how this war will end? I don't think it will until the Russians rise up and dethrone Putler. It's very hard to judge how many of the civilians support the war. From what I read, it appears to be about 50%, but who the hell knows. The west is going to have to find more ways to stop this war short of nuclear war. I think that we need to give far more weapons to Ukraine. Tighten up sanctions. Start targeting countries supplying the Russian death squads.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The fire bombing of Japan and Germany. The Dam Busters British attack on dams to flood the Ruhr River valley.

The idea that wars are fought between armies and civilians are left alone is to make war palatable for the nass of civilians.

If someone is trying to kill me there is no morality. I will do whatever it takes to protect myself.

Other than nukes there is not much more hurt Russia can put on Ukraine.

If Ukraine had the capacity they could and should hit Moscow.

Right now Russia is attacking Ukraine with everything that it has. They even use ground to air and defense systems against civilian targets. If Ukraine started attacking Russian infrastructure, Russia would be forced to return the ground to air weapons to defend their infrastructure. I think support for Putler would drop further if civilians had 10% of the misery that Ukraine currently has.

 

[steve_bank]

I am no expert, but I'd say culturally Russia is as anti west in general terms as we were anti Russia in the Cold War.

Casualty wise the Soviet alliance bore the brunt of WWII casualties. You can look up a picture of the Dtalngrad memorial, a huge hand coming out of the ground. It is like our Peal Harbor memorial.

I expect NATO and the west is a long standing Russian boogeyman.

If Russia had a free press maybe it wulrd be live Vietnam for us. Daily reporting of casualties with video.

 

[steve_bank]

The fire bombing of Japan and Germany. The Dam Busters British attack on dams to flood the Ruhr River valley.

The idea that wars are fought between armies and civilians are left alone is to make war palatable for the nass of civilians.

If someone is trying to kill me there is no morality. I will do whatever it takes to protect myself.

Other than nukes there is not much more hurt Russia can put on Ukraine.

If Ukraine had the capacity they could and should hit Moscow.

Right now Russia is attacking Ukraine with everything that it has. They even use ground to air and defense systems against civilian targets. If Ukraine started attacking Russian infrastructure, Russia would be forced to return the ground to air weapons to defend their infrastructure. I think support for Putler would drop further if civilians had 10% of the misery that Ukraine currently has.

The bombing of Germany forced pulling back fighters forair defense.

It would be a test to see if Putin coud walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It appears that Putler will be spending his golden years in south America:

Vladimir Putin 'has plan to flee to South America if he loses war in Ukraine'

 

[TV and credit cards]

So will Russia have to reshuffle air defenses in light of Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russia?

These attacks by Ukraine within Russia have given Russia pause. Strategically, how will they react to protect their assets? Not just military targets within range but manufacturers for the Russian military and strategic infrastructure (bridges across the lower Volga). This all while paranoid Russia protects Moscow and Saint Petersburg with air defenses.

Ukraine may not have done much physical damage with these attacks but strategically they must be wreaking havoc in Moscow. So while RAF fights tooth and nail for Bakhmut, a city of little operational importance, UAF will be going after what is not only important to Russia but will be hard-pressed to replace.


Is Ukraine’s new drone a game-changer in the war?

The Tu-141 reconnaissance drone code-named “Strizh” (Swift) was made public in 1979, the year Moscow invaded Afghanistan.

Almost 15-metres (49 feet) long, it has a rear-mounted delta wing with a span of fewer than four metres (13.1 feet) and weighs about six tonnes.

Its speed is subsonic, about 1,100km (683 miles) per hour, and its range is about 1,000km (621 miles)

The drone can rise up to six kilometres (37 miles) above the earth – but can also move at a mere 50 metres (164 feet) above it, significantly complicating the work of Russian air defence.

Most importantly, the Strizh was produced in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, and the 2014 revival of its production may have been relatively easy.

In October, Ukroboronprom, Ukraine’s state-run weapons consortium, said that it was developing a heavy drone that could carry almost 75 kilograms (165 pounds) of explosives. No further details were available.

“We are telling you almost nothing, but this ‘nothing’ successfully works on the battlefield,” Ukroboronprom’s spokeswoman Natalya Sad said in televised remarks.

She did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Lieutenant General Romanenko said that the Strizh “may have been used” to develop the new drone.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Casualty wise the Soviet alliance bore the brunt of WWII casualties.

That was because of their tactics, or maybe lack thereof, not because the fighting was any different in their theater.

 

[steve_bank]

I think if Russia collapsed the invasion of Europe would have been far more difficult and costly.

Russia and Germany spent themselves on each other.

Over here suppliers are saying they are string to gey low on weapons stores.