How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Typical of you. No evidence.

You need evidence that 30-50% of the ukrainian elecric grid is more-less out?
Where are you living? in a cave?

Of course, Russia also hits the electric grid as part of their campaign to punish civilians. Nobody's denying that. They have this silly notion as if hurting the civilian population is somehow going to make Ukraine surrender. Didn't work for Germans in London Blitz, didn't work for the allies in Dresden bombings, didn't work for USSR against Finland. It's just going to make the Ukrainians more determined to keep fighting back, and makes Ukraine's western allies more sympathetic towards giving more weapons and aid.

It worked during Yugoslavia bombing. And it worked in WW2 with Germans and with Japanese.

 

[barbos]

Regardless, she doesn't have access to any real casualty numbers.

Of course she HAS access to it. Or you think she had a stroke during the speech?
100K is the generally agreed figure. Independent entities do make estimations.
And this is the number.

 

[barbos]

Nonsense. The official Kremlin numbers aren't reliable.

That's not kremlin numbers. That' independent estimates. But they agree with kremlin numbers.
NATO is not winning. And there is plenty of indirect evidence supporting that.

 

[Jayjay]

Typical of you. No evidence.

You need evidence that 30-50% of the ukrainian elecric grid is more-less out?
Where are you living? in a cave?

Don't try to shift goal posts. This isn't about the electric grid. This is about Russia shelling civilian targets in Kherson.

 

[barbos]

Don't try to shift goal posts. This isn't about the electric grid. This is about Russia shelling civilian targets in Kherson.

According to whom?
Russian army has never deliberately targeted civilians. Whereas Kiev Nazi regime has been murdering civilians in Donetsk for 8 years. And they are proud of it.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Regardless, she doesn't have access to any real casualty numbers.

Of course she HAS access to it. Or you think she had a stroke during the speech?
100K is the generally agreed figure. Independent entities do make estimations.
And this is the number.

In WW2, the U.S. burnt down every major Japanese city. The U.S. an Britain destroyed most large German cities. Are you claiming Russia plans to win this war of aggression that Russia started by levelling Ukraine? By leaving Ukraine a desolute pile of uninhabitable rubble?

 

[bilby]

Which was later explained as her meaning that it's the total number of casualties

Yes, she "explained". And only idiots would buy that "explanation".

US General Mark Milley made a similar estimate a month ago

He is a filthy liar. He can't make estimates. Other people make estimates. He pulled his estimate from his filthy ass. Generally aggreed figure of ukranian losses is what Ursulla von Nazi said - 100K dead for ukrainian. Russian losses are ~8 times lower.
100K ukrainian losses is what ukrainian regime reports to their NATO masters and Ursulla simply blurted it out. She has such tendency.

 

[bilby]

NATO is not winning

NATO isn't even fighting.

If they were, Russia would have lost already.

 

[Patooka]

Barbos:

You need evidence that 30-50% of the ukrainian elecric grid is more-less out?

Also Barbos:

Russian army has never deliberately targeted civilians.

Jesus, you were more credible when you were shrieking about Nazi Zombies.

 

[Jayjay]

Of course, Russia also hits the electric grid as part of their campaign to punish civilians. Nobody's denying that. They have this silly notion as if hurting the civilian population is somehow going to make Ukraine surrender. Didn't work for Germans in London Blitz, didn't work for the allies in Dresden bombings, didn't work for USSR against Finland. It's just going to make the Ukrainians more determined to keep fighting back, and makes Ukraine's western allies more sympathetic towards giving more weapons and aid.

It worked during Yugoslavia bombing. And it worked in WW2 with Germans and with Japanese.

It's debatable whether the civilian infrastructure destruction in Yugoslavia was necessary. NATO also destroyed practically all the military infrastructure as well. Same with Japan. The US never had to bomb the main islands.

I mentioned Germany because it did not stop fighting due to destruction to civilian targets. It stopped fighting when the allies got to Berlin and Hitler put a bullet in his brain. Hitting civilian targets is just going to justify the war those fighting it, right or wrong. Russia is now committing the same mistake thinking that targeting civilians will somehow make Ukraine surrender. It won't, it'll prolong the war because now it's politically harder for Ukraine to negotiate.

 

[Jayjay]

Regardless, she doesn't have access to any real casualty numbers.

Of course she HAS access to it. Or you think she had a stroke during the speech?

Didn't you just say she was an idiot? If she's stupid enough to blurt out a classified KIA number, then she's stupid enough to confuse KIA with WIA.

100K is the generally agreed figure. Independent entities do make estimations.
And this is the number.

Ok, show me what independent entity says that Ukraine has 100k killed. Right now that 100k seems popular because it's a round number, but it's killed and wounded. It's much more likely that von der Leyen was just using these public figures rather than classified information.

Ukraine is tight-lipped about its own casualties, but war is war, so I'm sticking with my own estimate that Ukraine's casualties are in the same ballpark with Russia's. Both armies are offshoots of the former Soviet system, have similar tactics, organization and weapons.

 

[Jayjay]

Yes, just like I predicted, Russia is grinding the "forever Russian" city of Kherson to dust with artillery just out of spite.

Nope. They are grinding supply lines.

Bullshit. They're hitting apartment buildings, convenience stores, and art museums (though of course Russians looted the museum before retreating so there probably wasn't anything left there of value).

Nope, they don't hit any of these useless targets. They hit electric grid.

Typical of you. No evidence.

You need evidence that 30-50% of the ukrainian elecric grid is more-less out?
Where are you living? in a cave?

Don't try to shift goal posts. This isn't about the electric grid. This is about Russia shelling civilian targets in Kherson.

According to whom?

According to the conversation we are having. I added the quotes above for your convenience.

Russian army has never deliberately targeted civilians.

This is obviously false. They target civilians even in the areas they occupy, like they did in Bucha. So why would Russia care about hitting civilians in Kyiv or Zaporizhzhia that they think are just teeming with nazis and satanists anyway?

Ukraine sometimes hits civilians, because Russians don't give a shit even about their own people and put ammunition depots in the middle of Donetsk city.

 

[Jayjay]

Despite draconian measures to silence public discourse, Russian TV pundits present both sides of the argument: Is Zelensky the anti-Christ, or is he merely a lesser demon? You be the judge.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Despite draconian measures to silence public discourse, Russian TV pundits present both sides of the argument: Is Zelensky the anti-Christ, or is he merely a lesser demon? You be the judge.

I've been continuously shocked at how naive the Russians are. They are so shocked and hurt that Ukraine (and the west) have stood up to Russia. They really hate Zelensky! Is there any doubt what Russia would do to the Ukranian civilian leadership, their military, and civilians if Ukraine did fall?

 

[Jayjay]

I've been continuously shocked at how naive the Russians are. They are so shocked and hurt that Ukraine (and the west) have stood up to Russia. They really hate Zelensky! Is there any doubt what Russia would do to the Ukranian civilian leadership, their military, and civilians if Ukraine did fall?

Considering that they had a plan to kill the Ukrainian leadership even before the war, one can only imagine what they want to do to them now.

Ukraine war: Captured Russian documents reveal Moscow's 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders

Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI says, with a list also showing who should be killed, who would be intimidated and who would be targeted as a collaborator.

news.sky.com

The documents also revealed that Russia planned to capture Ukraine's power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament - and that Russian special services were tasked with killing the Ukrainian leadership.

They appeared to assume Ukrainian government officials would "either flee or be captured as a result of the speed of the invasion", RUSI said.

Zelensky will probably have to look over his shoulder for the rest of his life.

 

[bilby]

I've been continuously shocked at how naive the Russians are. They are so shocked and hurt that Ukraine (and the west) have stood up to Russia. They really hate Zelensky! Is there any doubt what Russia would do to the Ukranian civilian leadership, their military, and civilians if Ukraine did fall?

Considering that they had a plan to kill the Ukrainian leadership even before the war, one can only imagine what they want to do to them now.

Ukraine war: Captured Russian documents reveal Moscow's 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders

Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI says, with a list also showing who should be killed, who would be intimidated and who would be targeted as a collaborator.

news.sky.com

The documents also revealed that Russia planned to capture Ukraine's power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament - and that Russian special services were tasked with killing the Ukrainian leadership.

They appeared to assume Ukrainian government officials would "either flee or be captured as a result of the speed of the invasion", RUSI said.

Zelensky will probably have to look over his shoulder for the rest of his life.

"I need ammo, not a ride".

It wasn't just the Russians who thought Zelensky would flee like a third-world ruler of a 1980s banana republic.

Everyone knew that Russia would crush Ukraine in a week, or at most two; And that Zelensky would only survive if he ran away. The US government was happy to help him flee. But it turned out that he, and the country he leads, are made of sterner stuff.

Russia cannot win. They could, possibly, at great cost in lives, materiel, and money, occupy the entire nation of Ukraine (though that seems implausible). But if they did; If they killed Zelensky, and all his government, and all their families and friends, Ukraine would still always be a thorn in Russia's side.

England invaded, occupied, and ruled the island of Ireland for centuries. And they still couldn't hold on to the place.

Russia cannot win. The sooner they wake up to this obvious and undeniable fact, the better for everyone.

Russia cannot win.

But Russia can lose, if they're stupid enough to put themselves into a position where their only choices are to win, or to lose.

Oh, wait.

Shit.

Russia cannot win; But Russia losing could mean agony for both Russia and Ukraine for decades, maybe centuries. If they're too stupid to recognise that winning isn't a possible outcome.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia cannot win.

I think it depends on how you define "winning". Russia does not seem likely to be able to subjugate entire Ukraine, like the original plan. Nor do they seem likely to take the entire south, what was the stated goal of "stage 2" of the war, now that they lost Kherson.

But they do seem to be poised on keeping rest of what they've occupied. I count that as a "win", because Russia deserves to get absolutely nothing out of this quagmire.

 

[steve_bank]

There was a national news report that Putin fell down stairs, has stomach cancer, and Parkinson;s.

Can't find any corroboration on the net.

 

[Jayjay]

There was a national news report that Putin fell down stairs, has stomach cancer, and Parkinson;s.

And shat his pants.

These stories are coming from "General SVR" telegram channel. Best way to follow them in English is this twitter account:

https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en

None of what's in there is corroborated. I think they're complete fabrications, but they pop up in other media at regular intervals for some reason.

 

[Elixir]

None of what's in there is corroborated. I think they're complete fabrications, but they pop up in other media at regular intervals for some reason.

Yah, I will believe it when one of Pootey’s subordinates declares himself President of Russia due to Putler’s death.