How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

ISW is reporting that Ukraine shot down some 40 drones for two nights in a row, 100% of them. All Iranian drones. I wonder if they are hacking them? I recall Iran once hacked a U.S. drone apparently and crashed it into Iran. I don’t see how else they could be so effectively getting their drones.

The Shahed drones are not that sophisticated. They're just slow loitering munitions with GPS and pre-programmed target coordinates. Their initial success was partially due to numbers and element of surprise, but now that they're expected, Ukraine has probably been able to figure out a good system how to deal with them.

Also this might have something to do with the success rate:

The German Gepard AA gun. Ukraine has received 30 of them, and to me they sound like the perfect weapon against slow-moving drone fleets.

I've got to imagine NATO intel on how to address them is the biggest asset for Ukraine.

 

[Patooka]

I've got to imagine NATO intel on how to address them is the biggest asset for Ukraine.

Agreed as whilst the aid is definitely welcomed, an AA tank is hardly a revolutionary concept. Pretty certain Ukraine has some surplus ZSU 23/4s that can do the job just as well as the Gepard.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine has been pounding Svatove and Kreminna since last fall, and has been moving VERY slowly toward those two towns. That nation's armed forces should have an easier time in the coming months, with the ground frozen.

The basic problem is that Russia doesn't have the logistics capability to move ammo to the front. That's why the dumps are still within HIMARS range, pulling them back out of range would substantially increase the demand for trucks for the last part of the journey.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The German Gepard AA gun. Ukraine has received 30 of them, and to me they sound like the perfect weapon against slow-moving drone fleets.

I've got to imagine NATO intel on how to address them is the biggest asset for Ukraine.

And the flip side--NATO gets to see how it's weapons actually fare against them.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine says forces closer to recapturing key eastern city of Kreminna | Ukraine | The Guardian - "Luhansk city could be step towards launching offensives on Russian-held Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk"

Ukraine hits huge Russian ammo dump at Svatove

Looks like a drone dropping a single bomb triggered it.

Just a day after destroying an ammo dump in Donetsk stored in the same school building as hundreds of Russian soldiers, Ukraine has destroyed a huge Russian ammo dump near Svatove.

...
The big question is why are the Russians storing so much ammo in one place rather than having smaller amounts in multiple locations.

Still not much more than Ukrainians pounding Russians, however.

 

[Elixir]

"The big question is why are the Russians storing so much ammo in one place rather than having smaller amounts in multiple locations."

Hmm. Maybe they're just a bit short on 'trustworthy' stewards.

 

[TV and credit cards]

"The big question is why are the Russians storing so much ammo in one place rather than having smaller amounts in multiple locations."

Hmm. Maybe they're just a bit short on 'trustworthy' stewards.

Yep. Disbursed in smaller lots, they'd have to have people guard it all and people guarding the guards. When morale is as low as it is, they probably have little choice but to cluster people and equipment together.

 

[Jayjay]

Putin has ordered a "Christmas ceasefire" from Jan 6 noon to Jan 7 midnight (Moscow time), and is calling for Zelensky to do the same. What a fucking joke. Only question I have is if Russia will continue to attack as usual, or if they will hit Ukraine with even more artillery, missiles and drones than the average day.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Putin has ordered a "Christmas ceasefire" from Jan 6 noon to Jan 7 midnight (Moscow time), and is calling for Zelensky to do the same. What a fucking joke. Only question I have is if Russia will continue to attack as usual, or if they will hit Ukraine with even more artillery, missiles and drones than the average day.

It's my understanding that UAF get time and a half for killing invaders on designated holidays.
I think Russia's really strapped for cash. Maybe Putin would like to move to a four day war week.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine Tried to Coerce Danish Reporter to Make Propaganda - "Ukraine’s intelligence service asked a respected Danish journalist to prove she was not a pro-Russia propagandist by making pro-Ukraine propaganda."

Denmark’s leading chronicler of the war in Ukraine, Matilde Kimer, who has reported for Danish television from the front lines of the conflict since the Russian aggression began in 2014, revealed last week that Ukraine’s intelligence service had canceled her work permit and would only return it if she agreed to let the spy agency direct her reporting.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin has ordered a "Christmas ceasefire" from Jan 6 noon to Jan 7 midnight (Moscow time), and is calling for Zelensky to do the same. What a fucking joke. Only question I have is if Russia will continue to attack as usual, or if they will hit Ukraine with even more artillery, missiles and drones than the average day.

Of course they want a cease fire--their bottleneck is logistics. Time spent not shooting improves their situation.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin has ordered a "Christmas ceasefire" from Jan 6 noon to Jan 7 midnight (Moscow time), and is calling for Zelensky to do the same. What a fucking joke. Only question I have is if Russia will continue to attack as usual, or if they will hit Ukraine with even more artillery, missiles and drones than the average day.

The subtext to this is that Orthodox Ukrainians traditionally used the Julian calendar to commemorate the birth of Jesus, but most of the Christian world has switched over to the Gregorian date of December 25. Ukrainians had been shifting their annual celebration gradually to December 25, which was more in line with the West. Zelensky made a big deal of December 25 being a day that many Ukrainians would spend their Christmas holiday in the dark. So Putin was sending the message that he did not respect this new trend, since Ukraine's shift to the West was a major part of his justification for invading Ukraine. Orthodox Russians, of course, continue to celebrate Christmas in early January.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The latest system to be tested on Russian forces will be the Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment. I challenge you to figure out the acronym for yourself. Made by L3 Harris Technologies, it is capable of striking air or ground targets.

 

[Jayjay]

The latest system to be tested on Russian forces will be the Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment. I challenge you to figure out the acronym for yourself. Made by L3 Harris Technologies, it is capable of striking air or ground targets.

Sounds like they'll be in Ukraine in mid-2023:

VAMPIREs in Ukraine: L3's New Rocket System

The Ukrainian battlefields will soon be the proving ground for L3’s new VAMPIRE rocket system designed to mount to any truck with a flatbed.

greydynamics.com

Is this a brand new system? If so, there might also be some quirks and bugs they need to solve. It sounds good on paper, but so have many other weapons systems that didn't turn out to work so well in the field.

 

[Elixir]

Looks great. Does it pop up out of an otherwise innocuous looking shell? ‘Cuz that would be really cool. Operated from the drivers seat while underway … really cool.
After the Revolution, we’ll get rid of all those Democrat Lib’rul laws and Ford will be offering it as a factory option, (F250V) with your choice of urban (short range) or rural (long range) models.

 

[Jayjay]

Sounds like the Ukrainian front broke down in Soledar. Half the town is lost, and the other half is being surrounded.

Soledar also helps Russia encircle Bakhmut. I made a predicton earlier that both will be lost by Jan 20th, and it doesn't seem so outlandish anymore. Maybe Ukraine can hold a bit longer, maybe not, but clearly, it's a shitty situation.

 

[barbos]

Dumbass (ukrainian) ambassador to UK gave interview to NewsWeek.
In which he admitted lying about ukrainian losses, admitted that West use Ukraine in their War on Russia. Who knew being a fucking moron is now fashionable and acceptable in the West.

 

[barbos]

The latest system to be tested on Russian forces will be the Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment. I challenge you to figure out the acronym for yourself. Made by L3 Harris Technologies, it is capable of striking air or ground targets.

Keyword is "tested" West can not provide coverage even if they wanted.

 

[barbos]

Sounds like they'll be in Ukraine in mid-2023:

Yep

 

[barbos]

Putin has ordered a "Christmas ceasefire" from Jan 6 noon to Jan 7 midnight (Moscow time), and is calling for Zelensky to do the same. What a fucking joke. Only question I have is if Russia will continue to attack as usual, or if they will hit Ukraine with even more artillery, missiles and drones than the average day.

Why is that a joke? Church is kinda important in Russia/Ukraine. So, little political pandering is prudent thing to do. Russian military are not happy with this "ceasefire".