How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Some good news:

Evgeny Prigozhin says Wagner Group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine — Meduza

Evgeny Prigozhin, the owner of Russia’s Wagner Group, told journalists on Thursday that the mercenary company has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in the war in Ukraine.

meduza.io

I guess even prisoners weren't stupid enough to sign up to die in Ukraine... after the first few months.

Agreed. However, I've learned that whenever there is some good news, bad news quickly follows:

Wives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine get fur coats as compensation

Video on social media shows the women getting the garments in Makiivka, in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region.

www.newsweek.com

Giving widows a fur coat for losing their husband is another stroke of Russian genius. I'm sure that this will dramatically increase the Russian volunteers to this war.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile in Poland, Poland is negotiating for rights to manufactor U.S. designed Jevelin anti-tank missiles. Ukraine is now fielding new Ukranian built drones and advanced artillery systems. Future Russian military invasions might as well leave their tanks and armored vehicles in Russia.

 

[lpetrich]

3 E.U. Countries Plan to Get Some Leopard 1 Tanks to Ukraine ‘Within Months’ - The New York Times

Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced a joint initiative on Tuesday to send around 100 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, some of which could arrive “within a few months.”

That is a far shorter timeline than the more advanced tanks Ukraine’s Western allies have pledged as they seek to bolster the embattled nation ahead of an expected new Russian offensive.

Mirage 2000 For Ukraine? As US Rejects Sending F-16s To Kyiv, France Says Open To Sending Fighter Jets To Ukraine
Some older ones, like Mirage 2000C ones.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It's just a matter of time before F-16s start coming in. Former British Commander, Greg Bagwell states realistically Ukrainian fighter pilots can be trained up in six to eight weeks on them. Like Leopards, F-16s are ubiquitous throughout the allies. And it's a good reason to have to spend tax dollars on F-35s.

But I've fought against the F-16. I've had the odd trip in one, but I've also fought against it. It's tiny, it's hard to see on radar, it's even harder to see in the air with the naked eye. The F-16 is not called a viper for no reason. It's a vicious, nasty, dangerous little airplane.

 

[Jayjay]

3 E.U. Countries Plan to Get Some Leopard 1 Tanks to Ukraine ‘Within Months’ - The New York Times

Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced a joint initiative on Tuesday to send around 100 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, some of which could arrive “within a few months.”

That is a far shorter timeline than the more advanced tanks Ukraine’s Western allies have pledged as they seek to bolster the embattled nation ahead of an expected new Russian offensive.

Leopard 1 is an old model, came to service in 1965 though it has been upgraded a few times after that. It's basically the equivalent of Russian T-62, which you may remember from the ridicule they got last spring and summer when they were spotted in southern Ukraine.

So, I don't think Leopard 1 donations are going to do much good despite their numbers. Leopard 2 is a different matter, but of course being a quality tank, European countries who have them are a bit stingy in giving them up. UK-donated Challenger tanks are probably also good. And IFVs, especially Bradleys, maybe the real equalizer.

Can Ukraine take back its land with these vehicles? I think not. But they might be able to help them fight Russia into a stalemate by end of 2023.

 

[SLD]

Some good news:

Evgeny Prigozhin says Wagner Group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine — Meduza

Evgeny Prigozhin, the owner of Russia’s Wagner Group, told journalists on Thursday that the mercenary company has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in the war in Ukraine.

meduza.io

I guess even prisoners weren't stupid enough to sign up to die in Ukraine... after the first few months.

Yup. Told ya! They’re basically all used up. Weren’t much help anyways. Except to help Ukraine deplete ammunition while getting killed. 80% casualty rates will kill your motivation every time.

ISW is measuring Russian “advances“ in hundreds of meters per week. Even a kilometer a week would mean almost ten years before they reached Kiev. I don’t think they can keep it up that long.

 

[barbos]

Germany sends 14 Leopard-2 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks
14 and 88
14 and 88

Agreed. Not nearly enough. A total of 321 heavy tanks are going to Ukraine at this time. There will be more coming as I don't see Russia stopping its invasion.

Are you pretending it went over your head?

 

[bilby]

Germany sends 14 Leopard-2 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks
14 and 88
14 and 88

Agreed. Not nearly enough. A total of 321 heavy tanks are going to Ukraine at this time. There will be more coming as I don't see Russia stopping its invasion.

Are you pretending it went over your head?

I think he would notice if a tank went over his head. Albeit briefly.

 

[barbos]

And what's all this talk about US need to attack China soon?

All of what talk?

I don't get Russian media, nor would I understand it if I did. So I can't imagine what you are referring to, other than Russian propaganda intended for internal consumption.
Tom

Russian media parrots your media. And yes your media talks about leaks from your think tanks which say US has to attack China while it can.

Israel PM (former) about Zelensky and Bolton prank

Former Israeli PM, Elensky was in bunker afraid of Putin. NYT, 200K casualties. Bolton pranked. U/1

Former Israeli PM, Elensky was in bunker afraid of Putin. NYT, 200K casualties. Bolton pranked. U/1Topic 860*****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.local...

www.youtube.com

 

[barbos]

ISW is measuring Russian “advances“ in hundreds of meters per week

It's measured in dead ukrainain soldiers. Remember, SMO goal - demilitarization of Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

I sure hope Ukraine has a plan for withrawing from Bakhmut an setting up defensive lines after that to limit further losses. But from the outside it looks like they're just fighting until the last man like in Azovstal and Severodonetsk, with some of their best troops being sacrificed to buy a little bit of extra time.

It's politically "inconvenient" for a clown to retreat.
And I understand new defensive lines are not as good as what they currently have in Artemovsk.

 

[barbos]

Expect barbos to start talking about nazis in Poland soon;

I already talked about that. Yes, nazis.
Current polish regime is extra "polish" and has an extra axe to grind when it comes to Russia.
To be fair, they hate Germany too. They think Poland should be uber alles in EU and Germany owes Poland gazilions of dollars in reparations.

 

[barbos]

The Chris Hedges Report: Ukraine and the crisis of media censorship

Throughout the Ukraine war, Western news outlets have mindlessly parroted the opinions of a ruling elite and overseen a public discourse that is often unhing...

www.youtube.com

 

[barbos]

And about these tanks. They are, at a minimum, months away. Leopard-1 is a joke.
Leopard-2 numbers is a joke. Ukrainians have no training. Tanks will have no air support, maintenance will be nightmare.
And tanks are useless anyway when it comes going against modern army.
Ukraine had a lot of tanks before the conflict, they were all destroyed, then NATO collected all remaining soviet tanks in Eastern Europe and gave it to Ukraione, they were all destroyed within weeks. These 14 Leopard-2 will be destroyed too.

These rocket propelled bombs is a more serious thing, but I just learned that they don't actually exist, not even single one have ever existed, none. They just came up with the idea because they ran out of ammo for the current shit they have.

This tank frenzy is just a political coverup for eventual ukrainian defeat. Nobody wants to be blamed for the defeat, so the whole gang does what everyone else does.

 

[SLD]

ISW is measuring Russian “advances“ in hundreds of meters per week

It's measured in dead ukrainain soldiers. Remember, SMO goal - demilitarization of Ukraine.

It’s measured by 80% Russian casualty rates.

seriously, dude, how the fuck are you demilitarizing Ukraine? It’s military has grown exponentially in a year. It’s getting more western hardware, tanks, artillery and even air assets. You haven’t demilitarized shit. Your military sucks. Really sucks.

 

[barbos]

Roger Waters at the UN Security Council session - FULL SPEECH

New York, February 8, 2023The veteran Pink Floyd rocker, Roger Waters, has addressed the UN security council at Russia’s invitation, and called for an immedi...

www.youtube.com

 

[barbos]

It’s measured by 80% Russian casualty rates.

120% according to Zele the Clown

 

[Patooka]

Expect barbos to start talking about nazis in Poland soon;

I already talked about that. Yes, nazis.
Current polish regime is extra "polish" and has an extra axe to grind when it comes to Russia.
To be fair, they hate Germany too. They think Poland should be uber alles in EU and Germany owes Poland gazilions of dollars in reparations.

Please tell me when Polish Nazi zombies are a thing.

Also congrats on spelling Zelensky's name properly for the first time.

 

[Jayjay]

Some good news:

Evgeny Prigozhin says Wagner Group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine — Meduza

Evgeny Prigozhin, the owner of Russia’s Wagner Group, told journalists on Thursday that the mercenary company has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in the war in Ukraine.

meduza.io

I guess even prisoners weren't stupid enough to sign up to die in Ukraine... after the first few months.

Yup. Told ya! They’re basically all used up. Weren’t much help anyways. Except to help Ukraine deplete ammunition while getting killed. 80% casualty rates will kill your motivation every time.

Using convicts got them this far. I think they just ran out of gullible-enough cannon fodder.

And in absolute terms the casualties weren't that high: reports are saying that Wagner's tactic was to use waves of about 8 people at a time, with 4-14 waves in one day to take maybe a small patch of ground. Let's say 50% of them get killed; that's just 20-50 people, which is minuscule in absolute terms compared to traditional warfare where you have thousands of people in a combined arms operation, though far smaller casualty rates.

I maintain that Wagner's / Russia's cynical usage of convicts did work, and if they can't do that anymore for whatever reason that gives Ukraine a little bit of reprieve.

ISW is measuring Russian “advances“ in hundreds of meters per week. Even a kilometer a week would mean almost ten years before they reached Kiev. I don’t think they can keep it up that long.

Progress is not linear. Not all terrain is equal. The loss of Bakhmut to Ukraine is worse than just 1% distance to Kyiv. It's also an important hub and allows Russia to mount other attacks in the future. And the fact that Ukraine was able to hold on to it for so long means it's very defensible: hard to capture means that it'll be just as hard for Ukraine to recapture, which I doubt they can ever do.

Bakhmut's strategic meaning is that if Russia can additionally take Lyman and Izyum back in the north, then they can take more or less take rest of Donbas, which is one of Putin's stated goals of the war. Ukraine has also depleted a lot of its own manpower defending Soledar and Bakhmut; manpower that would be needed elsewhere when Russia starts its main push.

 

[Jayjay]

Expect barbos to start talking about nazis in Poland soon;

I already talked about that. Yes, nazis.
Current polish regime is extra "polish" and has an extra axe to grind when it comes to Russia.

Funny how everyone who's had to live under Russian rule almost categorically have "an axe to grind" with it.