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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

barbos said:
And what's all this talk about US need to attack China soon?
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This is not going to happen! Russia would love to see this. But I don't think that China will invade Taiwan, triggering a war with the US. China, unlike Russia, wants to have a strong economy. The Chinese want to be part of the world economy. They don't want crushing sanctions. They want trade with the west.
 
barbos said:
Germany sends 14 Leopard-2 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks
14 and 88
14 and 88
:)
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1. What tanks is Ukraine expecting to receive?
The dam appeared to break in mid-January, when the UK said it would send 14 of its Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) — a classification that refers to the heaviest, most powerful armored vehicles. On Jan. 25, Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with 112 Leopard 2 battle tanks over an unspecified period in a joint effort with allies, while the US said it would send 31 of the Abrams M1. France’s President Emmanuel Macron said he did not rule out sending the Leclerc, its own MBT. It will likely be months before NATO-designed tanks reach the front lines.
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Copernicus said:
barbos said:
Germany sends 14 Leopard-2 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks
14 and 88
14 and 88
:)
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The largest foreign contributor of tanks to Ukraine has been, and will continue to be, Russia. These are, of course, slightly used tanks, and many are no longer serviceable but can be used for spare parts.
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I think Ukraine's largest cash import at the moment are used tank part sales to the Russians on eBay.
 
So it seems to me that Biden’s main concern is not provoke Putin into attacking the west. So he’s afraid of giving Ukraine any weapons that could be used to strike inside Russia. No F-16’s. No back filling MiG’s. No advanced long range missiles.

But is that a really valid concern? Why would Putin attack NATO; he can’t even hold Ukraine, and he has to realize there is no way he could prevail. Even with nukes, he’d just end up getting wiped off the map. He’s NOT that insane. And even if he is, I bet a lot of senior Russian military aren’t and will stop his ass.

Ukraine needs to be able to strike deep inside Russia; that’s where the missiles hitting it are being launched. They need to shoot down cruise missile bombers before they fire on their targets. Deep logistical strikes against Russia would utterly blunt any planned offensive. I don’t buy this caution. It’s only prolonging the war. We’ve let it drag on for far too long. I say give them everything they need and tell Putin if he wants to tee it up, go for it, but we will utterly destroy him.

We have to really stand up to this aggression. We have to show the world that he cannot get away with this shit. We don’t solve our problems by invading our neighbors. Give Ukraine everything.
 
www.theage.com.au

Putin is raiding his piggy bank as his cash woes grow

With his oil and gas revenues drying up, Vladimir Putin is being forced into desperate measures to keep funding his war. They will weigh heavily on Russia’s future.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au
Russia’s latest budget update shows the price caps on its oil are starting to bite even before the more recent caps on its diesel and other refined products take effect.

Official data released by Russia’s Ministry of Finance on Monday show that the budget deficit in January was 1.76 trillion roubles (about $36 billion), with revenue from oil and gas nearly halving from their level a year earlier and expenditures swelling 59 per cent, presumably largely because of the cost of the war in Ukraine.
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Reactions: SLD
SLD said:
So it seems to me that Biden’s main concern is not provoke Putin into attacking the west. So he’s afraid of giving Ukraine any weapons that could be used to strike inside Russia. No F-16’s. No back filling MiG’s. No advanced long range missiles.

But is that a really valid concern? Why would Putin attack NATO; he can’t even hold Ukraine, and he has to realize there is no way he could prevail. Even with nukes, he’d just end up getting wiped off the map. He’s NOT that insane. And even if he is, I bet a lot of senior Russian military aren’t and will stop his ass.

Ukraine needs to be able to strike deep inside Russia; that’s where the missiles hitting it are being launched. They need to shoot down cruise missile bombers before they fire on their targets. Deep logistical strikes against Russia would utterly blunt any planned offensive. I don’t buy this caution. It’s only prolonging the war. We’ve let it drag on for far too long. I say give them everything they need and tell Putin if he wants to tee it up, go for it, but we will utterly destroy him.

We have to really stand up to this aggression. We have to show the world that he cannot get away with this shit. We don’t solve our problems by invading our neighbors. Give Ukraine everything.
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I agree viscerally with all that. But I don’t believe you or I are privy to all the relevant facts. Biden’s reticence might be more for show than anything else, or may be based on strategic or tactical factors of which we are unaware. I am far more inclined to trust Biden’s military decisions than Cheato’s.
 
Elixir said:
I agree viscerally with all that. But I don’t believe you or I are privy to all the relevant facts. Biden’s reticence might be more for show than anything else, or may be based on strategic or tactical factors of which we are unaware. I am far more inclined to trust Biden’s military decisions than Cheato’s.
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This. Nuclear diplomacy 101 is you must not corner your opponent, they must always have a reasonable way out of the situation. Putin's apparent insanity means Biden must tread very lightly. He doesn't want to hit Russia even by proxy, US arms are limited to hitting things in the occupied area. Both sides have respected this line through the cold war (although forces nominally under another flag do not get such protection. We no doubt killed some Russian pilots in Vietnam, but since they were pretending to be Vietnamese the line wasn't actually crossed.)
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
I agree viscerally with all that. But I don’t believe you or I are privy to all the relevant facts. Biden’s reticence might be more for show than anything else, or may be based on strategic or tactical factors of which we are unaware. I am far more inclined to trust Biden’s military decisions than Cheato’s.
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This. Nuclear diplomacy 101 is you must not corner your opponent, they must always have a reasonable way out of the situation. Putin's apparent insanity means Biden must tread very lightly. He doesn't want to hit Russia even by proxy, US arms are limited to hitting things in the occupied area. Both sides have respected this line through the cold war (although forces nominally under another flag do not get such protection. We no doubt killed some Russian pilots in Vietnam, but since they were pretending to be Vietnamese the line wasn't actually crossed.)
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Didn't we slaughter a bunch of Russian Mercs in Syria under the Trump Admin? They fucked with the US troops, US troops fucked back, and it wasn't remotely close. Only that the US didn't know who it was... and Russia didn't make a big deal of it.
 
I sure hope Ukraine has a plan for withrawing from Bakhmut an setting up defensive lines after that to limit further losses. But from the outside it looks like they're just fighting until the last man like in Azovstal and Severodonetsk, with some of their best troops being sacrificed to buy a little bit of extra time.
 
Expect barbos to start talking about nazis in Poland soon;

www.newsweek.com

Putin ally believes Ukraine war will end soon: "The West will kneel"

Chechnya President Ramzan Kadyrov predicted that Russia will win the war in Ukraine "by the end of the year."
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

The Kremlin has said one of the justifications for the war in Ukraine was to "denazify" Ukraine, which has been dismissed internationally. Kadyrov wrote that the "fight against Satanism should continue throughout Europe, first of all on the territory of Poland."

Kadyrov and his commanders have regularly described the conflict in Ukraine as a "holy war" against the "satanic" values of the West, a view which is sometimes pushed on Russian state television.

Kadyrov said that Russia could assist in a referendum on independence for Silesia, a region of Poland "that has earned a special independent status."
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It is pretty fucking funny that Russia thinks they are in a position to threaten anybody though.
 
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Jimmy Higgins said:
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
I agree viscerally with all that. But I don’t believe you or I are privy to all the relevant facts. Biden’s reticence might be more for show than anything else, or may be based on strategic or tactical factors of which we are unaware. I am far more inclined to trust Biden’s military decisions than Cheato’s.
Click to expand...
This. Nuclear diplomacy 101 is you must not corner your opponent, they must always have a reasonable way out of the situation. Putin's apparent insanity means Biden must tread very lightly. He doesn't want to hit Russia even by proxy, US arms are limited to hitting things in the occupied area. Both sides have respected this line through the cold war (although forces nominally under another flag do not get such protection. We no doubt killed some Russian pilots in Vietnam, but since they were pretending to be Vietnamese the line wasn't actually crossed.)
Click to expand...
Didn't we slaughter a bunch of Russian Mercs in Syria under the Trump Admin? They fucked with the US troops, US troops fucked back, and it wasn't remotely close. Only that the US didn't know who it was... and Russia didn't make a big deal of it.
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Mercs. Not Russian armed forces. What's important is what flag they're fighting under, not their citizenship. There are American volunteers in Ukraine--but they're fighting under a Ukrainian flag.

The important thing is to avoid any possible tit-for-tat escalation. It's an elaborate dance where appearances (the flag you are flying under) can be more important than reality (your true country.) In almost all cases both sides bend over backwards to avoid any possible exchange of fire. Typically that means forces skulking around in the other's territory are effectively unarmed (for example, the U-2 incident, or similar Russian intrusions) and in the rare case where that's not feasible (say, subs sniffing around the other guy's submarine cables) the intruding sub is ordered not to fire even in self defense.

Note that this is what makes the Pakistan/India situation so dangerous. There are elements in Pakistan who decidedly do not respect this aspect of nuclear statesmanship and want to egg on war for the glory of Islam. The sane elements on both sides know that Pakistan would be the overall loser and so far they've managed to keep things from getting out of hand.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
I agree viscerally with all that. But I don’t believe you or I are privy to all the relevant facts. Biden’s reticence might be more for show than anything else, or may be based on strategic or tactical factors of which we are unaware. I am far more inclined to trust Biden’s military decisions than Cheato’s.
Click to expand...
This. Nuclear diplomacy 101 is you must not corner your opponent, they must always have a reasonable way out of the situation. Putin's apparent insanity means Biden must tread very lightly. He doesn't want to hit Russia even by proxy, US arms are limited to hitting things in the occupied area. Both sides have respected this line through the cold war (although forces nominally under another flag do not get such protection. We no doubt killed some Russian pilots in Vietnam, but since they were pretending to be Vietnamese the line wasn't actually crossed.)
Click to expand...
Didn't we slaughter a bunch of Russian Mercs in Syria under the Trump Admin? They fucked with the US troops, US troops fucked back, and it wasn't remotely close. Only that the US didn't know who it was... and Russia didn't make a big deal of it.
Click to expand...
There was an incident when a unit of US Special Forces were attacked by Russians. They thought it must be a quasi friendly fire problem and used restraint until someone at HQ called their Russian counterpart. The Russian military said they had no units anywhere near the area. The US force was given free rein to deal with the problem and the Russian mercenary force was wiped out. Why the Russians attacked, or if they knew they were attacking Americans, was never fully understood. One speculation is the Russian MOD thought this was a good way to get rid of a problem.
 
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