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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

 
The White House on Twitter: "One year ..." / Twitter
One year after Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, President Biden traveled to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy. Here’s how it happened.

On Sunday at 4:15 AM EST, @POTUS departed D.C. on Air Force One for Germany – where the plane refueled and was wheels up at 6:29 PM CET.

7:57 PM CET: Air Force One landed at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland.

9:37 PM CET: President Biden departed the Przemyśl Główny train station and took a 10-hour train ride to Ukraine.

8:00 AM EET: President Biden arrived at the Kyiv-Pasazhyrsky station, where he greeted U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

8:18 AM EET: President Biden’s motorcade was en route to Mariinsky Palace, where he then met with President Zelenskyy.

1:10 PM EET: President Biden departed Kyiv by the same train he arrived on. The train crossed the border back into Poland shortly after 8:00 PM CET.
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With plenty of pictures. He went by train both ways. I think that he went by train because of a strong risk of friendly fire from Ukraine's air-defense systems.

Time zones: CET = Central European Time, EET = Eastern European Time
 
Alexander Kamyshin on Twitter: "So, here is ..." / Twitter
So, here is the story of @POTUS's visit to #Kyiv and how #RailForceOne was born.

Grab some 🍿, @Amtrak.

Danger: long 🧵 ahead.

I don't actually remember how we got from putin’s idea to “take Kyiv in 3 days” to President #Biden walking across #Kyiv together with my President #Zelenskyy on the 362nd day of the war.

Let's just say that Biden’s visit to Kyiv yesterday was a historic moment.

So, it was an honor and a privilege for me and the whole #IronTeam of @Ukrzaliznytsia to deal with this visit. I must say, it was complicated. But we did it. That's how #RailForceOne appeared.

Out of 24 hours, president Biden spent 20 on the train (both directions), and only 4 in Kyiv. That's why it was important for us to care about him in a proper way. And we did.

I will not tell much more about this mission. Just believe me, it was quite a complicated project for us. Our #IronDiplomacy program helps my country withstand in this war, that's why we #KeepRunning.

I also want to apologize for breaking our OTP (On Time Performance) yesterday. We had to delay some of our trains to give a way to #RailForceOne. It was painful for me and my team, but I had to do that. So only 90% of our trains arrived on time yesterday. I apologize.

Grateful to all #IronPeople engaged in this mission, @OlKubrakov and his team, as well as @USAmbKyiv and the whole embassy team, and many other people whom I can't name. 😎
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Has several pictures from inside the train, like what looks like a conference room in one of the railcars.
 
I think we are getting into a danger zone.

Putin has politically backed himself into a corner. He has no off ramp. Pressure can warp people to a breaking point. Putin must be feeling intense pressure, he put Russia on a total war footing

The image of Biden speaking live on TV from Kyiv must be humilating for Putin.

Biden laid it out clearly, an attack on any NATO sate is an attack on all.

The potential for tactical nukes to destroy Ukraine IMO is rising.

Add to that reporting that China is considering large scale aid to Russia. Obviously China wants to reduce the capacity of the USA to intervene over Taiwan.

And NK potentially taking advantage to get aggressive.
 
steve_bank said:
I think we are getting into a danger zone.

Putin has politically backed himself into a corner. He has no off ramp. Pressure can warp people to a breaking point. Putin must be feeling intense pressure, he put Russia on a total war footing

The image of Biden speaking live on TV from Kyiv must be humilating for Putin.

Biden laid it out clearly, an attack on any NATO sate is an attack on all.

The potential for tactical nukes to destroy Ukraine IMO is rising.

Add to that reporting that China is considering large scale aid to Russia. Obviously China wants to reduce the capacity of the USA to intervene over Taiwan.

And NK potentially taking advantage to get aggressive.
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China isn't going to reduce our capacity to bring weapons to bear. They will increase it. Russia increases our's and Europe's capacity to produce armaments by creating large orders for weapons manufacturers that keep them producing. Orders large enough will cause expansion of manufacturing.
It's my understanding the US government loves to mothball equipment. Not just military equipment but the manufacturing equipment that makes it. Long term contracts with the DoD keeps manufacturing equipment around even when the company that makes it goes out of business.

But Putin is in a corner. Is this Russia's offensive push we're witnessing right now? It's all Russia can do to throw more and more inexperienced men into a panicked battle. And Putin knows what western military equipment is coming his way. So yeah, he's in quite a bind or will be by early summer, I'd guess.

Knowing Putin will not relent, I'm hoping Biden's visit to Ukraine was meant to dishearten the power structure around Putin. Putin being forced out may be the only good option.

China still has no good reason to supply Russia.
 
news.yahoo.com

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.

“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”

According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”
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TV and credit cards said:

But Putin is in a corner. Is this Russia's offensive push we're witnessing right now? It's all Russia can do to throw more and more inexperienced men into a panicked battle. And Putin knows what western military equipment is coming his way. So yeah, he's in quite a bind or will be by early summer, I'd guess.

Knowing Putin will not relent, I'm hoping Biden's visit to Ukraine was meant to dishearten the power structure around Putin. Putin being forced out may be the only good option.
Click to expand...

Putin's speech (among other things) spun it to say "ah...you see?! Ukraine is a tool of The West!"

Okay, Vlad...that sounds good to the folks who only consume your state media, but it's not good for you. You underestimated Ukraine. Badly. You counted on NATO being divided and ineffective. You banked on Trump winning the election, but your backup plan was that Biden would be weak when you made your move. A year later, Ukraine has stubbornly refused to fall, "The West" is all "actually, we like this Zelenskyy guy and want to help him," and "Sleepy" Joe Biden just took a rather large shit on your doorstep. It's not quite Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" quote following Pearl Harbor, but you sure as hell stepped in the guano. Having Ukraine be a "tool of The West" is not what you were looking for...but you've got it now.

As for Putin pushed out being a good option? I'm not convinced. There's no really good options here - what with the only folks close to power in Moscow being every bit as corrupt and evil as Vlad - but maybe a humiliated and neutered Putin backed into a corner (yet still in charge) until things get sorted out might be better than him "accidentally" falling out a window.
 
ZiprHead said:
news.yahoo.com

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.

“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”

According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”
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Not surprising, but still sad. It underscores what Putin's plan has been all along--a restoration of the Russian Empire, to the extent that it is possible. He gave new life to NATO, whose purpose is to defend Europe against Russian expansionism. It isn't about economics, because that was going in a favorable direction for Russia before the invasion. Nor is it about NATO threatening Russia, since NATO's purpose was being seriously questioned by many of its members before the invasion. After the invasion, NATO expanded, because those neutral governments in the area realized that NATO still had relevance and purpose in the modern world. Now it is just Putin's Russia engaging in naked aggression.
 
Ford said:
TV and credit cards said:

But Putin is in a corner. Is this Russia's offensive push we're witnessing right now? It's all Russia can do to throw more and more inexperienced men into a panicked battle. And Putin knows what western military equipment is coming his way. So yeah, he's in quite a bind or will be by early summer, I'd guess.

Knowing Putin will not relent, I'm hoping Biden's visit to Ukraine was meant to dishearten the power structure around Putin. Putin being forced out may be the only good option.
Click to expand...

Putin's speech (among other things) spun it to say "ah...you see?! Ukraine is a tool of The West!"

Okay, Vlad...that sounds good to the folks who only consume your state media, but it's not good for you. You underestimated Ukraine. Badly. You counted on NATO being divided and ineffective. You banked on Trump winning the election, but your backup plan was that Biden would be weak when you made your move. A year later, Ukraine has stubbornly refused to fall, "The West" is all "actually, we like this Zelenskyy guy and want to help him," and "Sleepy" Joe Biden just took a rather large shit on your doorstep. It's not quite Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" quote following Pearl Harbor, but you sure as hell stepped in the guano. Having Ukraine be a "tool of The West" is not what you were looking for...but you've got it now.

As for Putin pushed out being a good option? I'm not convinced. There's no really good options here - what with the only folks close to power in Moscow being every bit as corrupt and evil as Vlad - but maybe a humiliated and neutered Putin backed into a corner (yet still in charge) until things get sorted out might be better than him "accidentally" falling out a window.
Click to expand...
I agree. I think that if Putler falls, his replacement will probably be more pro-war. I think that there is a sizable amount of Russians (mostly older people who don't have to serve) who want war. Having said that, it would be easier for a new Russian leader to keep face if he pulled out; blaming the war on Putler. So, I'm torn here.

Biden travelling to Ukraine was an absolute foreign policy homerun.
 
Copernicus said:
ZiprHead said:
news.yahoo.com

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.

“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”

According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Not surprising, but still sad. It underscores what Putin's plan has been all along--a restoration of the Russian Empire, to the extent that it is possible. He gave new life to NATO, whose purpose is to defend Europe against Russian expansionism. It isn't about economics, because that was going in a favorable direction for Russia before the invasion. Nor is it about NATO threatening Russia, since NATO's purpose was being seriously questioned by many of its members before the invasion. After the invasion, NATO expanded, because those neutral governments in the area realized that NATO still had relevance and purpose in the modern world. Now it is just Putin's Russia engaging in naked aggression.
Click to expand...
NATO expanded in part because of the intent for some nations to get richer. Putin wants to redraw the map to make Russia bigger... not better.
 
Putin's motivations are identical to Hitler's although I think the Russian Hitler has his eyes on personal enrichment and avoiding accountability for his behavior. He's a mob boss and mob bosses don't like law enforcement at their doorstep. Putin genuinely fears this.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Copernicus said:
ZiprHead said:
news.yahoo.com

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.

“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”

According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Not surprising, but still sad. It underscores what Putin's plan has been all along--a restoration of the Russian Empire, to the extent that it is possible. He gave new life to NATO, whose purpose is to defend Europe against Russian expansionism. It isn't about economics, because that was going in a favorable direction for Russia before the invasion. Nor is it about NATO threatening Russia, since NATO's purpose was being seriously questioned by many of its members before the invasion. After the invasion, NATO expanded, because those neutral governments in the area realized that NATO still had relevance and purpose in the modern world. Now it is just Putin's Russia engaging in naked aggression.
Click to expand...
NATO expanded in part because of the intent for some nations to get richer. Putin wants to redraw the map to make Russia bigger... not better.
Click to expand...
Agree that eastern European countries wanted Nato to become "richer". But it's deeper than that. They want to be able to control their own country. They don't want to be ruled by outsiders who will "disappear" them in the middle of the night if they say something rash. They want partners who will negotiate with them in trade; not "partners" who will dictate to them their terms. Eastern Europe turned to the west because they are tired of being bullied by Russia. Yes joining NATO will make them richer. But joining NATO also ensures that they can rule themselves. The countries not in NATO are either being destroyed (Ukraine) or will soon be taken over by Russia (Moltova, Belarus). Russia made its own bed in Europe. They are not wanted...
 
And Moldova target gets a little bit larger, as Putin moves with his slow burn acquisition style. Granted, it'd be hard to snatch Moldova without Ukraine in hand. Unless he just kills the leader and gets "the people" to put a pro-Russia stooge in charge.
article said:
President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops.

The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia's foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow's closer relations with the European Union and the United States.

...

The 2012 decree committed Russia to seeking ways to resolve the separatist issue "based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transdniestria".
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lpetrich said:
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 on Twitter: "Biden didn’t go to East Palestine, Ohio on President’s Day. He went to Ukraine, a NON-NATO nation, whose leader is an actor and is apparently now commanding our United States military to world war. We must impeach this America Last fool before it’s too late. (pic link)" / Twitter
JUST IN - Ukraine's Zelenskyy: "If China allies itself with Russia, there will be a world war." - WELT
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Presumably  Die Welt ("The World", a German newspaper)
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And MTG went neither to Ukraine or Palestine. Nor has spoken out about Trump's repeal of statutes forcing railroads to make trains carrying toxic materials safer.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
And Moldova target gets a little bit larger, as Putin moves with his slow burn acquisition style. Granted, it'd be hard to snatch Moldova without Ukraine in hand. Unless he just kills the leader and gets "the people" to put a pro-Russia stooge in charge.
article said:
President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops.

The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia's foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow's closer relations with the European Union and the United States.

...

The 2012 decree committed Russia to seeking ways to resolve the separatist issue "based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transdniestria".
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If memory serves, there were anti-government rallies some months back sponsored by the Kremlin. So since that didn't work in installing a Kremlin backed puppet, it's on to plan B. It would be the height of embarrassment if tiny impoverished Moldova managed to kick the orcs out of Transnistria. Maybe funneling arms through Romania that the CIA would have absolutely nothing to do with.
 
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