How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.

news.yahoo.com

A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force.

“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.”

According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”

Not surprising, but still sad. It underscores what Putin's plan has been all along--a restoration of the Russian Empire, to the extent that it is possible. He gave new life to NATO, whose purpose is to defend Europe against Russian expansionism. It isn't about economics, because that was going in a favorable direction for Russia before the invasion. Nor is it about NATO threatening Russia, since NATO's purpose was being seriously questioned by many of its members before the invasion. After the invasion, NATO expanded, because those neutral governments in the area realized that NATO still had relevance and purpose in the modern world. Now it is just Putin's Russia engaging in naked aggression.

NATO expanded in part because of the intent for some nations to get richer. Putin wants to redraw the map to make Russia bigger... not better.

Agree that eastern European countries wanted Nato to become "richer". But it's deeper than that. They want to be able to control their own country. They don't want to be ruled by outsiders who will "disappear" them in the middle of the night if they say something rash. They want partners who will negotiate with them in trade; not "partners" who will dictate to them their terms. Eastern Europe turned to the west because they are tired of being bullied by Russia. Yes joining NATO will make them richer. But joining NATO also ensures that they can rule themselves. The countries not in NATO are either being destroyed (Ukraine) or will soon be taken over by Russia (Moltova, Belarus). Russia made its own bed in Europe. They are not wanted...

I'm not sure what the talk of NATO becoming "richer" is about. They expanded to increase their operating budget? Upgrade their weapons to fancier models? The alliance existed as a bulwark against Soviet expansionism in Europe, and its reason for being was very much in question after the Soviet Union broke up. The Cold War was over. Eastern European countries still feared Russian expansionism, so they rushed to join NATO for the reasons you give--to ensure their independence from a possible resurgence of Russian imperial expansion. That did not seem a very realistic fear until Putin decided to actually invade Ukraine and seize Crimea and portions of eastern Ukraine. So I very much agree with most of your post, but I don't see the expansion of NATO as having anything to do with NATO countries wanting the alliance itself to become richer. Rather, I think many would have preferred to rid themselves of the economic burden of maintaining it. The new countries joining it weren't bringing along bags of money to throw into the NATO treasury. They were looking for richer nations to supply most of the necessary funding.

 

[Jayjay]

Interesting twitter thread by an Ukrainian reservist that explains Wagner's typical tactics and why they are successful:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1628289158740381696

His conclusions:

In the areas where these mistakes were avoided, units performed greatly. While the Ukrainian army improved a lot, it's not always possible to turn a colonel or a general with 30 years of soviet-style experience into a NATO-like commander by performing a 3-month course.

As Bakhmut experience shows, the system needs to be less top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top. The initiative should be encouraged. Centralized, soviet-style management should be replaced with a NATO-style leadership. To win, we need to be flexible, and adapt soon as possible.

 

[Tigers!]

Putin speech interrupted by DDoS attack
https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/putin-speech-interrupted-by-ddos/

Couldn't happen to a nicer bloke.

 

[TV and credit cards]

GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with Forbes that the Russian offensive is so ineffective as to be almost unnoticeable

Do you suffer an inability to perform on the battlefield? Concerned that you just can't measure up?

Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power and resources needed to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine. Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky told the AP that Russian forces intensified their offensive operations in at least four or five directions in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts at the beginning of February but have yet to achieve any significant successes despite continuing to exhaust their personnel and resources.[4] Skibitsky added that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on capturing Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Marinka, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with Forbes that the Russian offensive is so ineffective as to be almost unnoticeable and noted that Russian forces have been rationing shells and ammunition to sustain assaults on the Bakhmut, Lyman, and Vuhledar directions while conserving shells in other areas.[5] Budanov's statement coincides with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the Bakhmut and Lyman directions and have yet to launch a significant push to advance in areas west of Donetsk City.[6] Budanov added that Russian artillery stocks decreased to 30 percent of the total number of shells. He claimed that Russia has imported a test batch of artillery shells from Iran and is currently attempting to procure another batch of 20,000 shells. Budanov previously estimated that Russian forces fired about 20,000 shells per day in late December 2022, down from 60,000 shells per day during the early stages of the war.[7] Budanov also observed that Russian tactics around Bakhmut and Vuhledar have largely shifted from artillery and mechanized attacks to infantry assaults due to the lack of shells and armored vehicles. Budanov noted that Russia had committed more than 90 percent of its 316,000 mobilized personnel to the frontlines, which further confirms Western and ISW's assessments that Russian forces do not have significant untapped combat-ready reserves.[8] Budanov noted that the Kremlin's stated objective of producing 800 tanks per year is unrealistic and stated that Russia can only produce 40 cruise missiles per month, which they use up in a single round of missile strikes. Russia has already lost at least 1,500 tanks and possibly as many as 2,000, as ISW has previously reported.[9]

So was that it, Vlad? Are you done?

 

[SLD]

GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with Forbes that the Russian offensive is so ineffective as to be almost unnoticeable

Do you suffer an inability to perform on the battlefield? Concerned that you just can't measure up?

Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power and resources needed to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine. Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky told the AP that Russian forces intensified their offensive operations in at least four or five directions in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts at the beginning of February but have yet to achieve any significant successes despite continuing to exhaust their personnel and resources.[4] Skibitsky added that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on capturing Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Marinka, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with Forbes that the Russian offensive is so ineffective as to be almost unnoticeable and noted that Russian forces have been rationing shells and ammunition to sustain assaults on the Bakhmut, Lyman, and Vuhledar directions while conserving shells in other areas.[5] Budanov's statement coincides with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the Bakhmut and Lyman directions and have yet to launch a significant push to advance in areas west of Donetsk City.[6] Budanov added that Russian artillery stocks decreased to 30 percent of the total number of shells. He claimed that Russia has imported a test batch of artillery shells from Iran and is currently attempting to procure another batch of 20,000 shells. Budanov previously estimated that Russian forces fired about 20,000 shells per day in late December 2022, down from 60,000 shells per day during the early stages of the war.[7] Budanov also observed that Russian tactics around Bakhmut and Vuhledar have largely shifted from artillery and mechanized attacks to infantry assaults due to the lack of shells and armored vehicles. Budanov noted that Russia had committed more than 90 percent of its 316,000 mobilized personnel to the frontlines, which further confirms Western and ISW's assessments that Russian forces do not have significant untapped combat-ready reserves.[8] Budanov noted that the Kremlin's stated objective of producing 800 tanks per year is unrealistic and stated that Russia can only produce 40 cruise missiles per month, which they use up in a single round of missile strikes. Russia has already lost at least 1,500 tanks and possibly as many as 2,000, as ISW has previously reported.[9]

So was that it, Vlad? Are you done?

Read that too. Very good report. Also just read that Putin’s budget deficit was $38 billion for January 2023 - due to a large drop in oil revenues. It might be an outlier month. He has enough reserves to cover it for now. But there is no way he can continue at that rate for 4 months. sure he could stretch that out to six maybe but by August, he’s economically toast. We need to find other creative ways to hurt their economy. Ukraine needs to consider some ways to sabotage their manufacturing or oil production. Maybe infiltrate saboteurs. Risky, but could have big payoffs.

 

[Copernicus]

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the guy who could end up replacing Putin. He's a really nice fellow, isn't he? Great sense of humor when talking about dead Russian soldiers. Read this testimonial to learn how he fits in with the top leadership of the current Russian Federation:

Russian warlord’s feud with Putin’s generals explodes into the open with gruesome PR campaign​

 

[Tigers!]

Surely the Mossad have someone who is not doing anything this weekend and get rid of Putin & Prigozhin.

 

[Patooka]

Surely the Mossad have someone who is not doing anything this weekend and get rid of Putin & Prigozhin.

Unfortunately there is no way Bibi would ever green light a hit on Putin. Birds and feathers and all that.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the guy who could end up replacing Putin. He's a really nice fellow, isn't he? Great sense of humor when talking about dead Russian soldiers. Read this testimonial to learn how he fits in with the top leadership of the current Russian Federation:

Russian warlord’s feud with Putin’s generals explodes into the open with gruesome PR campaign​

Yea, Prigozhin is a real piece of shit. He makes Putin seem nice. Very interesting to see what will happen. I think that there's a very good chance that he'll get a Russian Jump off a high building very soon.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Biden to give Moldova $300 million to help with energy costs and move them away from Russian energy dependence.
This will come from already approved $45 billion Ukraine funds.

Energy Assistance

 

[Jayjay]

This is what I had to say about the war ten months ago:

This crap is going to last for years.

Still valid.

 

[Jayjay]

Biden to give Moldova $300 million to help with energy costs and move them away from Russian energy dependence.
This will come from already approved $45 billion Ukraine funds.

Energy Assistance

Can't wait for Russian propagandists and trolls to cry foul. It's not fair to use energy as a political tool to meddle in other countries' internal affairs!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's rather frightening to think how orange Boy or some Boy Orange wannabe would be handling this situation. Biden is defending democracy, that's the simple truth. By now if Orange Boy had been calling the shots Europe would be a fucked up mess. Who knows how this will end. It will never go nuclear. My hope is that Putin will fuck up enough to make us play the NATO card, which is probably his greatest fear, truth be told. That would be the beginning of the end of this mess.

 

[Elixir]

I agree, if by NATO Card you mean piling on with total support and calling Putler’s nuclear bluff.

 

[lpetrich]

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on Twitter: "This is incredibly insulting.
Today on our President’s Day, Joe Biden, the President of the United States chose Ukraine over America, while forcing the American people to pay for Ukraine’s government and war.
I can not express how much Americans hate Joe Biden. (pic link)" / Twitter

She is cosponsoring this:
H.Res.113 - 118th Congress (2023-2024): Ukraine Fatigue Resolution | Congress.gov | Library of Congress
After describing in gory detail the military aid sent to Ukraine,

It is the sense of the House of Representatives that—

(1) the United States must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine; and

(2) the House of Representatives urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement.

Introduced by Matt Gaetz, it has 10 cosponsors, all original, cosponsors like MTG, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, and Anna Paulina Luna.


Mentioned in GOP 2024 hopefuls divided over US role in Ukraine war | CNN Politics

• Anti-Ukraine: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis
• Pro-Ukraine: Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Fmr AR Gov Asa Hutchinson

 

[TV and credit cards]

Biden to give Moldova $300 million to help with energy costs and move them away from Russian energy dependence.
This will come from already approved $45 billion Ukraine funds.

Energy Assistance

Can't wait for Russian propagandists and trolls to cry foul. It's not fair to use energy as a political tool to meddle in other countries' internal affairs!

It's suppose to help with Moldovans high energy bills. Hopefully the people feel the effect and it tamps down the pro-Russian Sor Party protests.

MTG figures it out and she'll scream bloody murder.

 

[SLD]

This is what I had to say about the war ten months ago:

This crap is going to last for years.

Still valid.

Maybe. But the failure to obtain a quick victory means Russia is on the road to defeat. They can and should be defeated unequivocally. We need to give Ukraine everything they need to defeat them, tanks, planes, missiles, and lots more ammunition. We don’t need those to defend ourselves at present as the only serious threat we have is Russia. So give it all to them and let them take care of business. If we did that, the war would be over in 6 months.

our piddling around has delayed this victory and prolonged the suffering of Ukraine, and ordinary Russians for that matter.

Russia will not likely survive this war intact. Just recall that in 1913 the Romanovs celebrated 300 years on the throne. They didn’t last 4 more.

Russian defeats have invariably resulted in the country breaking apart. It will happen again, and for the betterment of the world and even the people of Russia.

 

[SLD]

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

• 145,850 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
• 6,593 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
• 5,215 vehicles and fuel tanks
• 3,350 tanks
• 2,352 artillery pieces
• 2,029 tactical unmanned aerial systems
• 873 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
• 471 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
• 299 fighter, attack, and transport jets
• 287 attack and transport helicopters
• 244 anti-aircraft batteries
• 228 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
• 18 boats and cutters
• four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

While many will say these are exaggerated, many Western Intelligence agencies have confirmed that Russian casualties and losses of equipment are staggering. Even half this number would effectively seriously impede Russian forces from defending the country from a serious attack - much less to conduct offensive operations.

The vaunted Russian offensive has already fizzled. Outside of Vuhledar, which Russians have been trying to capture since November, they lost three combat brigades. Insane. They’ve been trying to capture Bakhmut since August and yet they still can’t cut off its supply lines. Heavy fighting there this week resulted in no significant gains. They’ve likely already crested. Wagner group, despite some initial successes with human wave attacks is spent. They’re no longer recruiting out of prisons. They’re fighting more with regular army units over supplies and press.

plus Putin’s having serious budgetary problems, with a deficit of $38 billion in January alone. There are numerous reports of soldiers not being paid. Financially he will not be able to keep up for more than four months without another way to pay for the war. He now has to lean heavily on foreign arms suppliers to support his forces. And that may not happen; we can pressure China not to give him such aid. Xi has got to be careful.

Russia could in fact face internal military revolt, especially as it leans on unwilling conscripts to support the war. The real threat Russia faces is internal disintegration, even civil war.

Putin has really fucked up.

 

[TomC]

He now has to lean heavily on foreign arms suppliers to support his forces.

Too bad the Republicans and Putin's boy Trump trashed the U.S.-Iran peace plan. We'd have some leverage in Teheran.

Maybe they wouldn't be sending those weapons to their ally Russia.
Tom

 

[Copernicus]

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the guy who could end up replacing Putin. He's a really nice fellow, isn't he? Great sense of humor when talking about dead Russian soldiers. Read this testimonial to learn how he fits in with the top leadership of the current Russian Federation:

Russian warlord’s feud with Putin’s generals explodes into the open with gruesome PR campaign​

Yea, Prigozhin is a real piece of shit. He makes Putin seem nice. Very interesting to see what will happen. I think that there's a very good chance that he'll get a Russian Jump off a high building very soon.

I think that Putin is trying to play Prigozhin and the generals off against each other, but he may end up caught in the crossfire. It is possible that this will drive some among the generals to try to take him and Prigozhin down in a coup. Prigozhin himself might want to try it, but I don't think that the Wagner Group is in a position to do that. They are a private company, in principle, not an official arm of the Russian government. I'm sure that many Russians in a position of power, especially the  siloviki, are thinking hard about where they will be in a post-Putin Russia. Most Russians would probably prefer a military coup by elements of the siloviki to a takeover by the likes of the ghoulish Prigozhin.