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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

ZiprHead said:
Russian Minefield Clearance




Warning - War violence
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I suspect this is a case of Moscow ordering them to advance or die. It also might be a lack of training in recognizing what happened--if it's Javelins then speed is the right thing.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
I suspect this is a case of Moscow ordering them to advance or die. It also might be a lack of training in recognizing what happened--if it's Javelins then speed is the right thing.
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My optimistic (and morbidly naïve) thought was that these were some good and highly moral young Russians who prefer to kill themselves rather than help an evil and corrupt Russian war machine to murder Ukrainians and steal their land. And as a bonus, this form of suicide has the benefit of taking out some expensive equipment belonging to that evil Russian power in the process. ...

But nah, they are probably just stupid, badly trained, and desperate kids put into a horrible situation and panicking.
 
Surprised the video was posted by Gorka. Would figure he would be pro Russian propaganda. Unless this is someone posing as him? Hard to tell with twitter verification turned to shit
 
The US government has formally charged Russia with crimes against humanity, which is not yet officially codified in any international treaty. However, it is recognized as a technical term and defined by the United Nations Office on Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect:

Definition​

Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court​

Article 7
Crimes Against Humanity

  1. For the purpose of this Statute, ‘crime against humanity’ means any of the following acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack:
    1. Murder;
    2. Extermination;
    3. Enslavement;
    4. Deportation or forcible transfer of population;
    5. Imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty in violation of fundamental rules of international law;
    6. Torture;
    7. Rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence of comparable gravity;
    8. Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court;
    9. Enforced disappearance of persons;
    10. The crime of apartheid;
    11. Other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.
  2. For the purpose of paragraph 1:
    1. ‘Attack directed against any civilian population’ means a course of conduct involving the multiple commission of acts referred to in paragraph 1 against any civilian population, pursuant to or in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit such attack;

Elements of the crime​

According to Article 7 (1) of the Rome Statute, crimes against humanity do not need to be linked to an armed conflict and can also occur in peacetime, similar to the crime of genocide. That same Article provides a definition of the crime that contains the following main elements:

  1. A physical element, which includes the commission of “any of the following acts”:
    1. Murder;
    2. Extermination;
    3. Enslavement;
    4. Deportation or forcible transfer of population;
    5. Imprisonment;
    6. Torture;
    7. Grave forms of sexual violence;
    8. Persecution;
    9. Enforced disappearance of persons;
    10. The crime of apartheid;
    11. Other inhumane acts.
  2. A contextual element: “when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population”; and
  3. A mental element: “with knowledge of the attack”
The contextual element determines that crimes against humanity involve either large-scale violence in relation to the number of victims or its extension over a broad geographic area (widespread), or a methodical type of violence (systematic). This excludes random, accidental or isolated acts of violence. In addition, Article 7(2)(a) of the Rome Statute determines that crimes against humanity must be committed in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit an attack. The plan or policy does not need to be explicitly stipulated or formally adopted and can, therefore, be inferred from the totality of the circumstances.

In contrast with genocide, crimes against humanity do not need to target a specific group. Instead, the victim of the attack can be any civilian population, regardless of its affiliation or identity. Another important distinction is that in the case of crimes against humanity, it is not necessary to prove that there is an overall specific intent. It suffices for there to be a simple intent to commit any of the acts listed, with the exception of the act of persecution, which requires additional discriminatory intent. The perpetrator must also act with knowledge of the attack against the civilian population and that his/her action is part of that attack.
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See also Vice President Harris's announcement on this subject:

US formally accuses Russia of crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Harris says​

 
Wow. That seems like a very significant change in explicit language.
 
Rhea said:
Wow. That seems like a very significant change in explicit language.
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It is, and I expect that Russia will respond with a whataboutery defense, which is their usual behavior when caught engaging in malicious behavior. They could cite the nuking of Japanese cities in the waning days of WWII and the use of napalm and agent orange in Vietnam. However, the fact remains that Russia is currently engaged in crimes against humanity in its conduct of the Ukraine invasion. They have clearly targeted civilian populations, enacted mass deportations, systematically tortured, and even used their own military as cannon fodder in human wave attacks. We have overwhelming amounts of physical evidence, and this could theoretically be used against Russian civilian and military leaders who consciously used those tactics as a matter of policy.
 
The latest news from Secretary of State Blinken is that China is 'strongly considering' sending lethal weaponry to support Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. Blinken met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, to discuss tensions regarding the Chinese surveillance balloon, so I suspect that this his fallout from the US decision to shoot down their balloon and expose their fleet of spy balloons to international criticism. China has not yet begun sending significant war materiel to Russia, but it would certainly change the dynamic of that war, not to mention ramping up tensions among the three major nuclear powers in the world, if it follows through on the threat.

Blinken claims China ‘strongly considering’ providing Russia with ‘lethal assistance’​

 
China is also saying that they will present their own "peace plan" for Ukraine.

www.theguardian.com

Chinese peace plan for Ukraine greeted cautiously by the west

China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi speaks of need to uphold principle of territorial integrity but also of respecting Russia’s ‘legitimate security interests’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi, one of the few external politicians able to influence Russia, announced that China would launch its peace initiative on the anniversary of the war, and has already been consulting Germany, Italy and France on its proposals. He said the peace plan would underscore the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and the UN Charter. But at the same time he said the legitimate security interests of Russia needed to be respected.
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My guess: the peace initiative will suggest that Russia gets to keep all the land it occupies, Ukraine stays out of NATO and has to limit the size of its army. So basically a reprieve that Russia needs to build up its army and attack again. Ukraine will obviously not accept such initiatives, and China will eventually use this as an excuse to provide weapons to Russia.
 
China obviously has no objections to nations invading other nations and subjugating them. Russian and China then are birds of a feather. If many in the world are not happy with Russian attacking Ukraine, those same people should not let China slide over Tibet.recently we have had Chinese bad behavior in disputed territory on India's border. And elsewhere in the Pacific ocean. It is not like they are oh so innocent themselves.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Most expected event that wasn't going to happen happened. Biden visited Kyiv.
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Here is a link to the AP report:

Biden declares ‘Kyiv stands’ in surprise visit to Ukraine​


Russia was notified of the visit hours in advance. That gave them enough time to get a missile-capable MIG fighter launched from Belarus, triggering an air raid alarm in Kyiv while Biden was there. The MIG could have launched a missile that would take 20 minutes to reach Kyiv, but they didn't do that. The air raid siren sounded as Biden and Zelensky were finishing a visit to St. Michael's Cathedral.

The Russians are using the trip to promote the false claim that they aren't at war with Ukraine, have nothing against Ukrainians, and are really fighting the US and NATO. This, of course, has been a familiar charge in this thread from one of our forum members.
 
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Copernicus said:
TV and credit cards said:
Most expected event that wasn't going to happen happened. Biden visited Kyiv.
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Here is a link to the AP report:

Biden declares ‘Kyiv stands’ in surprise visit to Ukraine​


Russia was notified of the visit hours in advance. That gave them enough time to get a missile-capable MIG fighter launched from Belarus, triggering an air raid alarm in Kyiv while Biden was there. The MIG could have launched a missile that would take 20 minutes to reach Kyiv, but they didn't do that. The air raid siren sounded as Biden and Zelensky were finishing a visit to St. Michael's Cathedral.

The Russians are using the trip to promote the false claim that they aren't at war with Ukraine, have nothing against Ukrainians, and are really fighting the US and NATO. This, of course, has been a familiar charge in this thread from one of our forum members.
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That notification probably started; "Unless you want your ass kicked by a mad black woman..."
 
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Biden in Ukraine: How the president's surprise visit was kept a secret - BBC News
Appearing in a war zone under regular attack, White House officials describe Joe Biden's unexpected visit to Ukraine's capital Kyiv as "unprecedented in modern times".

They say previous presidential trips to wartime Iraq and Afghanistan had the back up of a heavy US military presence.

...
The sight of him appearing beside President Volodymyr Zelensky in the heart of Kyiv and under the sound of air raid sirens, makes a louder statement than anything he can say in a speech in Poland.
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The trip had a lot of secrecy.
The advance schedule had two suspiciously lengthy gaps in his itinerary, and many wondered if that might be when he would slip into Ukraine.

Reporters at the daily White House press briefings have been repeatedly asking about a visit. We were told that there was no meeting scheduled with Mr Zelensky and no stops planned outside Warsaw "right now".
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Very convenient deniability.
On board was a deliberately small team of his closest aides, a medical team and security officers.

Only two journalists were allowed to travel with the president. They were sworn to secrecy and had their mobile phones taken away from them. They were not allowed to report the visit until after Mr Biden had arrived in Kyiv.

Russia was notified of the trip a few hours before Mr Biden's departure, according to the US national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

He said the US "did so for deconfliction purposes… I won't get into how they responded or what the precise nature of our message was, but I can confirm we provided that notice".
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Using Google Maps, I found a highway distance of 816 kilometers or 507 miles, and an estimated travel time of 10h 40m.

His trip took 10 hours by train.

Ukraine is a big country. All but Crimea:
  • North-south extent: 440 mi / 710 km
  • East-west extent: 820 mi / 1,310 km
Crimea:
  • North-south extent: 120 mi / 200 km
  • East-west extent: 200 mi / 320 km
 
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