Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Rusians are massing troops in Belorussia. Ukraine is destroying bridges, digging defenses, preparing mine fields, and is using drones to heavily surveil Russian movements. We might see The Battle For Kyiv II by April.
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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
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SLD
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ISW is not seeing that as a likely COA. They are also saying, in a concurrence with British MoD, that they do not have effective combat power for any sustained offensive. they don’t have ready reserves available to conduct any breakthroughs. Their “offensive” is a joke.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
It could well be a threat to draw off Ukranian forces from areas like the Dombass. But with Pootie, it is hard to say.
marc
Veteran Member
Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.
crooksandliars.com
Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window
Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
crooksandliars.com
Tigers!
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They do seem to be rather careless over there. Schools need to teach remedial window etiquette.Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.
Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window
Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
lpetrich
Contributor
She's now listed here: 
Suspicious deaths of Russian businesspeople (2022–2023)
The string of mysterious deaths among businessmen in Putin’s Russia, explained - Vox - Oct 14, 2022
Something similar happened early in the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020: Russian coronavirus doctors are mysteriously falling out of windows - Vox - three of them in quick sequence: April 24, May 1, May 2.
Suicides? Accidents? Murders by business rivals? Murders by Russia's leadership?
Suspicious deaths of Russian businesspeople (2022–2023)The string of mysterious deaths among businessmen in Putin’s Russia, explained - Vox - Oct 14, 2022
Something similar happened early in the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020: Russian coronavirus doctors are mysteriously falling out of windows - Vox - three of them in quick sequence: April 24, May 1, May 2.
Suicides? Accidents? Murders by business rivals? Murders by Russia's leadership?
You think Russia can endure years of sanctions?
Jayjay
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A tie for the entire war is a win. But Vuhledar is just one battle. Ukraine would need to do just as well everywhere. Which it isn't: Bakhmut is going to be lost, either soon if Ukraine withdraws, or with great casualties if it doesn't. Kreminna direction is somewhere between the two. Russia has made small advances, but Ukraine is holding out pretty well.
And what we're forgetting is that Ukraine is also suffering casualties. We don't hear about it as often because Ukraine doesn't publish the exact numbers. But the fact that Ukraine has now started to draft more unwilling people and imposing punishments for desertion (though not as brutal as Russian "sledgehammer to the head") is an indication that it also is starting to have a manpower problem. Until now it has been able to survive with mostly well-motivated volunteers.
So the real question isn't whether Ukraine can bleed Russia dry with current tactics before it runs out of men and guns itself. I don't think it can. Ukraine needs to do better.
Jayjay
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I doubt it. The fact that Ukraine has built all those trenches and fortifications means that Russian advance from Belarus would be harder. The goal maybe just to tie up Ukrainian troops at border away from Donbas.
If there is an attack, it's not necessarily towards Kyiv. It could be in the west, to cut off supply from Poland. But I seriously doubt Russia could execute that maneuver very quickly either. Certainly not by April.
Jayjay
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Most if not all other victims have been men. Congratulations to Maria Yankina for breaking the glass ceiling!Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.
Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window
Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
Jimmy Higgins
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This is Russia we are talking about, "enduring" is their national pastime. And I mean that in the best and worst possible ways.
Way back when Russia was getting started with their stupidity, Ukraine flooded fields. Sometimes the best mitigations involves making things wet and simply harder to move across. This tightens up transit routes, making them easier targets. Water is cheap and with diesel and a pump next to a well, quite easy to access. I can't imagine Kyiv is in any danger of a ground invasion.
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FTFY
Elixir
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Harry Bosch
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Gosh that is what this war is partially about. Russia’s goal is to steal land and resources, develop a monopoly, then use leverage to steal more.
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Russian Minefield Clearance
Warning - War violence
Warning - War violence
Jayjay
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I was thinking of the more immediate crisis next summer. Ukraine's occupied territory isn't producing anything (why would the farmers do it, if Russia is just going to steal their crops anyway) and Ukraine's production is cut considerably. Last summer they were still selling previous year's crops, this time there's not much to sell. And that means even worse shortages in Africa and Middle-East.
Yes, Russia will use that as leverage. I don't think it was the plan, because Russia didn't intend the war to go on for so long, but they'll definitely try to use it to their advantage.
zorq
Veteran Member
The video was blurry for me so I went to the twitter website to watch it. The video was about what I expected from ZiprHead's descriptiob, but the comments below were ridiculous. I know that Twitter is a wasteland of misinformed people spouting nonsense, but I am always surprised by the sheer volume of either Russian trolls or deluded Republicans who have been suckered by Russian trolls. It is so disheartening.