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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Rusians are massing troops in Belorussia. Ukraine is destroying bridges, digging defenses, preparing mine fields, and is using drones to heavily surveil Russian movements. We might see The Battle For Kyiv II by April.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Rusians are massing troops in Belorussia. Ukraine is destroying bridges, digging defenses, preparing mine fields, and is using drones to heavily surveil Russian movements. We might see The Battle For Kyiv II by April.
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ISW is not seeing that as a likely COA. They are also saying, in a concurrence with British MoD, that they do not have effective combat power for any sustained offensive. they don’t have ready reserves available to conduct any breakthroughs. Their “offensive” is a joke.
 
Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.

crooksandliars.com

Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window

Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
crooksandliars.com crooksandliars.com
 
marc said:
Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.

crooksandliars.com

Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window

Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
crooksandliars.com crooksandliars.com
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They do seem to be rather careless over there. Schools need to teach remedial window etiquette.
 
SLD said:
A tie is a win for Ukraine. Putin’s continued attacks aren’t doing anything but precisely what you say: running through guns and men. That’s all Ukraine need do. Hold and continue to bleed them to death. The failures to advance will destroy their military and capabilities.
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A tie for the entire war is a win. But Vuhledar is just one battle. Ukraine would need to do just as well everywhere. Which it isn't: Bakhmut is going to be lost, either soon if Ukraine withdraws, or with great casualties if it doesn't. Kreminna direction is somewhere between the two. Russia has made small advances, but Ukraine is holding out pretty well.

And what we're forgetting is that Ukraine is also suffering casualties. We don't hear about it as often because Ukraine doesn't publish the exact numbers. But the fact that Ukraine has now started to draft more unwilling people and imposing punishments for desertion (though not as brutal as Russian "sledgehammer to the head") is an indication that it also is starting to have a manpower problem. Until now it has been able to survive with mostly well-motivated volunteers.

So the real question isn't whether Ukraine can bleed Russia dry with current tactics before it runs out of men and guns itself. I don't think it can. Ukraine needs to do better.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Rusians are massing troops in Belorussia. Ukraine is destroying bridges, digging defenses, preparing mine fields, and is using drones to heavily surveil Russian movements. We might see The Battle For Kyiv II by April.
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I doubt it. The fact that Ukraine has built all those trenches and fortifications means that Russian advance from Belarus would be harder. The goal maybe just to tie up Ukrainian troops at border away from Donbas.

If there is an attack, it's not necessarily towards Kyiv. It could be in the west, to cut off supply from Poland. But I seriously doubt Russia could execute that maneuver very quickly either. Certainly not by April.
 
marc said:
Geezz.. If I were Russian, either a rich one or one in the government, I don't think I would go above the 1st floor of any building. It's an outright epidemic over there.

crooksandliars.com

Another Top Kremlin Defense Official Falls Out Of Window

Marina Yankina, 58, fell 160 feet to her death. She was a key figure in the funding of Vladimir Putin's illegal war in Ukraine.
crooksandliars.com crooksandliars.com
Click to expand...
Most if not all other victims have been men. Congratulations to Maria Yankina for breaking the glass ceiling!
 
Patooka said:
Jayjay said:
Elixir said:
Jayjay said:
Russia will try again and again until they succeed or run completely out of men and guns.
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That's why we have to ensure that they run completely out of men and guns as soon as possible.
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At this rate it'll take several years.
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You think Russia can endure years of sanctions?
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Yes. Cuba, Venezuela and Iran have been evading sanctions for decades, and Russia is a bigger country than they are.
 
Patooka said:
Jayjay said:
Elixir said:
Jayjay said:
Russia will try again and again until they succeed or run completely out of men and guns.
Click to expand...

That's why we have to ensure that they run completely out of men and guns as soon as possible.
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At this rate it'll take several years.
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You think Russia can endure years of sanctions?
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This is Russia we are talking about, "enduring" is their national pastime. And I mean that in the best and worst possible ways.
Jayjay said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Rusians are massing troops in Belorussia. Ukraine is destroying bridges, digging defenses, preparing mine fields, and is using drones to heavily surveil Russian movements. We might see The Battle For Kyiv II by April.
Click to expand...
I doubt it. The fact that Ukraine has built all those trenches and fortifications means that Russian advance from Belarus would be harder. The goal maybe just to tie up Ukrainian troops at border away from Donbas.

If there is an attack, it's not necessarily towards Kyiv. It could be in the west, to cut off supply from Poland. But I seriously doubt Russia could execute that maneuver very quickly either. Certainly not by April.
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Way back when Russia was getting started with their stupidity, Ukraine flooded fields. Sometimes the best mitigations involves making things wet and simply harder to move across. This tightens up transit routes, making them easier targets. Water is cheap and with diesel and a pump next to a well, quite easy to access. I can't imagine Kyiv is in any danger of a ground invasion.
 
Everyone seems to have forgotten the impending food crisis also.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Jayjay said:
Everyone seems to have forgotten the impending food crisis also.
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Gosh that is what this war is partially about. Russia’s goal is to steal land and resources, develop a monopoly, then use leverage to steal more.
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I was thinking of the more immediate crisis next summer. Ukraine's occupied territory isn't producing anything (why would the farmers do it, if Russia is just going to steal their crops anyway) and Ukraine's production is cut considerably. Last summer they were still selling previous year's crops, this time there's not much to sell. And that means even worse shortages in Africa and Middle-East.

Yes, Russia will use that as leverage. I don't think it was the plan, because Russia didn't intend the war to go on for so long, but they'll definitely try to use it to their advantage.
 
ZiprHead said:
Russian Minefield Clearance
]

Warning - War violence
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The video was blurry for me so I went to the twitter website to watch it. The video was about what I expected from ZiprHead's descriptiob, but the comments below were ridiculous. I know that Twitter is a wasteland of misinformed people spouting nonsense, but I am always surprised by the sheer volume of either Russian trolls or deluded Republicans who have been suckered by Russian trolls. It is so disheartening.
 
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