How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Putin put Shoigu, a loyal yes man in charge of the Ukraine invasion. Neither Putin nor Shoigu have high level military training. I think I see Russia's problem.

Russia has many problems.

Over the weekend, I listened to this story from Reveal on NPR. Intercepted cell phone calls from Russian soldiers invading Ukraine. How did they get this?

The (Ukraine) government and military were doing very clever signals intelligence. So, if they pick up a bunch of Russian numbers clustered in one place, they can figure out where the enemy troops are and attack them. So, the Russians eventually wise up to this and ditch their Russian phones, but they just can’t give up that itch to stay connected. So, they take those stolen Ukrainian phones, pass them around, and a bunch of guys call home from one number. Of course, the Ukrainians were still listening, and they intercepted those calls whenever they ping a Ukrainian cell tower. These conversations provided really important intelligence to the armed forces of Ukraine, and now there are also potential evidence for war crimes prosecutors.

The Russians dying in this "glorious special military operation" are losing their lives because they (and their leaders) are stupid. Of course the country you're invading is going to ping your cell phone signals. Of course they're going to know where you are if you use phones you stole from the Ukrainians you killed.

But Putin doesn't care. They're just cannon fodder for him.

I've been wondering how stupid do Russians have to be for these intercepted calls to keep popping up after a year into the war.

Option 1: When you're about to die, you don't give a shit about some zampolit's rules about not using cell phones. You call your family, and then you call your best friend to delete your browsing history. Maybe not in that order.

Option 2: There are Ukrainian operatives deep behind enemy lines who have equipment to capture calls when the Russians think they're far away from Ukrainian-controlled cell towers. All they need is a fake base station that the phones can connect to. Or they can hook into the cell towers directly somehow.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Putin has its way, Belarus will be annexed by Russia in few decades.

Putin won't be having any way at all in few decades. In fact I'd bet he won't be having his way for one decade. One year is more likely IMO.
In a few decades he'll almost certainly be a goner.

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

That's reactionary. It's along the same lines as worrying about Putin using nukes. This is the KGB propaganda machine in action and the west allows itself to be influenced.

Instead of all this hand wringing it would be advantageous for the west to outsmart Putin's stooges, which honestly shouldn't be all that difficult. Instead of worrying about someone worse succeeding Putin we ought to be clearly and unambiguously signaling that we fully expect Putin to be removed and a sane leadership to take control. It would get us a lot farther than all the worrying that is happening instead, and it would send the right message to the rest of the world, including Xi.

We really need to start beating these fuckers at their own game. We certainly can but everyone is walking around like they're hypnotized and afraid.

 

[Ford]

Putin put Shoigu, a loyal yes man in charge of the Ukraine invasion. Neither Putin nor Shoigu have high level military training. I think I see Russia's problem.

Russia has many problems.

Over the weekend, I listened to this story from Reveal on NPR. Intercepted cell phone calls from Russian soldiers invading Ukraine. How did they get this?

The (Ukraine) government and military were doing very clever signals intelligence. So, if they pick up a bunch of Russian numbers clustered in one place, they can figure out where the enemy troops are and attack them. So, the Russians eventually wise up to this and ditch their Russian phones, but they just can’t give up that itch to stay connected. So, they take those stolen Ukrainian phones, pass them around, and a bunch of guys call home from one number. Of course, the Ukrainians were still listening, and they intercepted those calls whenever they ping a Ukrainian cell tower. These conversations provided really important intelligence to the armed forces of Ukraine, and now there are also potential evidence for war crimes prosecutors.

The Russians dying in this "glorious special military operation" are losing their lives because they (and their leaders) are stupid. Of course the country you're invading is going to ping your cell phone signals. Of course they're going to know where you are if you use phones you stole from the Ukrainians you killed.

But Putin doesn't care. They're just cannon fodder for him.

I've been wondering how stupid do Russians have to be for these intercepted calls to keep popping up after a year into the war.

Option 1: When you're about to die, you don't give a shit about some zampolit's rules about not using cell phones. You call your family, and then you call your best friend to delete your browsing history. Maybe not in that order.

Option 2: There are Ukrainian operatives deep behind enemy lines who have equipment to capture calls when the Russians think they're far away from Ukrainian-controlled cell towers. All they need is a fake base station that the phones can connect to. Or they can hook into the cell towers directly somehow.

Shades of Vietnam?

I mean, a friend of mine went there as an infantryman. He got drafted, but what else was he doing? Stuck in a small town with no prospects, the military was a steady paycheck, and he could "fight for freedom" or whatever the propaganda said. God and country.

When he got there, he ran up against people who weren't in it for "a paycheck or whatever." If he got shot in the leg he got to go home. They were home. They couldn't get on a plane and leave.

There's a scene in the documentary "The Fog of War" where Robert McNamara (the Sec Def under Kennedy and Johnson) met with his Vietnamese counterpart years later. He asked how many of the soldiers his counterpart would have been willing to sacrifice in order to win, and (I'm paraphrasing) he said "Mr. Secretary, you don't understand. All of them."

That's a bit like what's going on in Ukraine. Putin is throwing disinterested and disaffected conscripts into the meat grinder, but Ukraine is sending people who have nothing to lose. They don't have anywhere where they can retreat or be sent home. They're already home.

 

[Elixir]

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

Maybe, maybe not. A lot of reasoning humans would look at the damage wrought by Putler and think “I’m sure as hell not going down THAT road!”

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Putin has its way, Belarus will be annexed by Russia in few decades.

Putin won't be having any way at all in few decades. In fact I'd bet he won't be having his way for one decade. One year is more likely IMO.
In a few decades he'll almost certainly be a goner.

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

That's reactionary. It's along the same lines as worrying about Putin using nukes. This is the KGB propaganda machine in action and the west allows itself to be influenced.

Is it? "The enemy you know" is a cliché for a reason.

Instead of all this hand wringing it would be advantageous for the west to outsmart Putin's stooges, which honestly shouldn't be all that difficult. Instead of worrying about someone worse succeeding Putin we ought to be clearly and unambiguously signaling that we fully expect Putin to be removed and a sane leadership to take control. It would get us a lot farther than all the worrying that is happening instead, and it would send the right message to the rest of the world, including Xi.

We really need to start beating these fuckers at their own game. We certainly can but everyone is walking around like they're hypnotized and afraid.

Russians don't want America "helping" them with their government. The US has a long history of choosing foreign leaders who are more beneficial to the US, than to their own people.

Replacing Putin with "someone better" is really naïve. It is often about money and the people with the money will want to continue having the money in Russia. Much like how it went down in Egypt, where the military (who has the money) kept control of Egypt. I'm not particularly concerned about someone one worse replacing Putin, as much as displacing Putin doesn't lead to any improvement as he is replaced with a similar type person.

Russia benefits the most by enjoining with the West, but who in the heck is in the government of Russia willing to push that narrative? The people that have the money don't want it elsewhere. So we are stuck with Russia's typical shitty status quo.

 

[Harry Bosch]

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

Maybe, maybe not. A lot of reasoning humans would look at the damage wrought by Putler and think “I’m sure as hell not going down THAT road!”

Agreed. I think that Putler's successor will most likely be harsher and even more pro-war. Russia is ruled by bitter old men who want to reclaim their "empire". However, a new leader has a way to "save face"; pull back; perhaps negotiate in good faith; with the thought that it wasn't his fault the war started. That's the only optimistic path out of this war that I can see.

 

[Jayjay]

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

Maybe, maybe not. A lot of reasoning humans would look at the damage wrought by Putler and think “I’m sure as hell not going down THAT road!”

Agreed. I think that Putler's successor will most likely be harsher and even more pro-war. Russia is ruled by bitter old men who want to reclaim their "empire". However, a new leader has a way to "save face"; pull back; perhaps negotiate in good faith; with the thought that it wasn't his fault the war started. That's the only optimistic path out of this war that I can see.

The context of my comment was Belarus. Not Ukraine.

Even if the hypothetical next leader were to withdraw from Ukraine, it doesn't mean he'd do it for the right reasons. It might be to cut off their losses and consolidate elsewhere; for example, Belarus. The problem of the imperialistic mindset is broader than just Putin.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia benefits the most by enjoining with the West, but who in the heck is in the government of Russia willing to push that narrative? The people that have the money don't want it elsewhere. So we are stuck with Russia's typical shitty status quo.

We're the ones that should be proactively pushing that narrative and outcome. Right now we're the ones that don't want Hitler to do anything rash so we're trying to be the nice guys. We can be the nice guys but still need to engage in better propaganda than Hitler. We don't need to be afraid of anything but we act like we're afraid of Hitler. Score one for Hitler.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Russia benefits the most by enjoining with the West, but who in the heck is in the government of Russia willing to push that narrative? The people that have the money don't want it elsewhere. So we are stuck with Russia's typical shitty status quo.

We're the ones that should be proactively pushing that narrative and outcome. Right now we're the ones that don't want Hitler to do anything rash so we're trying to be the nice guys. We can be the nice guys but still need to engage in better propaganda than Hitler. We don't need to be afraid of anything but we act like we're afraid of Hitler. Score one for Hitler.

It isn't just Putin, it is many of the oligarchs. For Putin to leave, the Oligarchs must see to it, or a terribly unfortunate military overthrow. Ultimately, it is always down to who have the money and influence. The Russian people aren't even pawns to the Oligarchs.

 

[TV and credit cards]

But he'll likely be replaced by some other dick who continues with the same agenda.

Maybe, maybe not. A lot of reasoning humans would look at the damage wrought by Putler and think “I’m sure as hell not going down THAT road!”

Agreed. I think that Putler's successor will most likely be harsher and even more pro-war. Russia is ruled by bitter old men who want to reclaim their "empire". However, a new leader has a way to "save face"; pull back; perhaps negotiate in good faith; with the thought that it wasn't his fault the war started. That's the only optimistic path out of this war that I can see.

The context of my comment was Belarus. Not Ukraine.

Even if the hypothetical next leader were to withdraw from Ukraine, it doesn't mean he'd do it for the right reasons. It might be to cut off their losses and consolidate elsewhere; for example, Belarus. The problem of the imperialistic mindset is broader than just Putin.

You'd think being a kleptocrat would be enough for most people, but no. I guess one gets bored with the mere financial rape of a nation and after awhile starts to yearn for something more.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Putin relies on the Siloviks, a small handful of sycophants that have been with him for years. They run police, intelligence, and other similar organizations. The Russian police state. Either they will depose Putin, or they and the organizations they control will have to be neutralized along with Putin. Many Russian experts think either scenarios are remote. If Putin goes, they would probably close behind. They realize that.

 

[steve_bank]

Biden calls Ukarine existential fr the western alliance and western liberal democracy. In the long term I gnerally agree.

But we are only giving them enough for a stalemate but not enough for a decisive win. If it goes pn another year Ukrainian culture will be destroyed. They will have nothing left.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes

A three-week fight in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced what Ukrainian officials say was the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.

www.nytimes.com

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine's new AWACS drone system is now active.

.....
Ukraine’s Infozakhist Research and Production Center test flew the Gekata radio reconnaissance unmanned system for the first time recently, Ukrainian defense news website Defense Express revealed.

The system comprises eight Ukrspecsystems PD-2 drones — four active and four spares — and a ground control station. Each drone carries with it an Infozakhist radio technical intelligence box suspended with the aircraft’s body tracking “signal pulses from the radar stations, electronic warfare support measures, anti-craft warfare, and airplanes.”
....

Ukrainian Firm Flight Tests Drone-Based AWACS

Ukraine's Infozakhist Research and Production Center recently test flew the Gekata radio reconnaissance unmanned system for the first time.

www.thedefensepost.com

 

[SLD]

Prigozhin says Bakhmut likely to fall soon. Says he’s giving Ukrainians a chance to get out. Ukrainians deny it and are continuing to fight.

They need far more artillery ammunition. Three times as much. I think we should let our stocks get depleted. We don’t need them.

 

[Jayjay]

Prigozhin says Bakhmut likely to fall soon. Says he’s giving Ukrainians a chance to get out. Ukrainians deny it and are continuing to fight.

They need far more artillery ammunition. Three times as much. I think we should let our stocks get depleted. We don’t need them.

Ukraine could also be bluffing. Maybe they're saying that they'll keep fighting, but are preparing a withdrawal. I hope they have next line of defense prepared in advance because Ukraine can't suffer another loss like Bakhmut in terms of manpower.

 

[SLD]

Prigozhin says Bakhmut likely to fall soon. Says he’s giving Ukrainians a chance to get out. Ukrainians deny it and are continuing to fight.

They need far more artillery ammunition. Three times as much. I think we should let our stocks get depleted. We don’t need them.

Ukraine could also be bluffing. Maybe they're saying that they'll keep fighting, but are preparing a withdrawal. I hope they have next line of defense prepared in advance because Ukraine can't suffer another loss like Bakhmut in terms of manpower.

How do you know they’ve suffered such a huge loss that they can’t continue? Seriously why do you keep saying crap like this? You know nothing of their casualties or their abilities to regenerate forces and continue the fight.

Quit bean counting. Wars are not simply won by the power with the more people. There are a huge number of other factors as Ukraine has demonstrated. Morale is a huge factor. Ukrainians want to fight. Russians are being forced to. And they’re getting slaughtered. Ukraine has far better tactics, command and control, and superior logistics. That’s what wins wars. Not cannon fodder. Ukraine can beat them simply by not losing. Even if they lose Bakhmut, it won’t impact them significantly. US military has been saying for weeks that they can withdraw to better lines anyways. They’ve made Russia pay dearly for nothing but a shell of a town. Ukraine wins because Russia can’t conquer them. Ukraine wins because Russia suffers huge casualties, and loses huge amounts of equipment that they can’t replace. They’ve weakened their defenses elsewhere. Russia loses because its economy continues to be degraded. Russia loses until Putin is dead. And a lot of them know that.

 

[Jayjay]

Prigozhin says Bakhmut likely to fall soon. Says he’s giving Ukrainians a chance to get out. Ukrainians deny it and are continuing to fight.

They need far more artillery ammunition. Three times as much. I think we should let our stocks get depleted. We don’t need them.

Ukraine could also be bluffing. Maybe they're saying that they'll keep fighting, but are preparing a withdrawal. I hope they have next line of defense prepared in advance because Ukraine can't suffer another loss like Bakhmut in terms of manpower.

How do you know they’ve suffered such a huge loss that they can’t continue? Seriously why do you keep saying crap like this? You know nothing of their casualties or their abilities to regenerate forces and continue the fight.

Neither do you. Ukraine keeps that kind of info to herself.

My impression is based on a gut feeling of what (western and pro-Ukrainian) commentators are saying. It sounds like it's much worse than Kherson or Severodonetsk, for example. And Ukraine has recently had to start forcefully mobilizing people who are not as motivated as before and imposing harsher punishments for desertion, which indicates that either they already have manpower shortage or are expecting to have one soon.

Quit bean counting. Wars are not simply won by the power with the more people. There are a huge number of other factors as Ukraine has demonstrated. Morale is a huge factor.

Indeed. Russia has numbers advantage, but Ukraine has (and I hope it still does) more people who are actually motivated to fight. That's why large number of attrition among those people is so dangerous to Ukraine. They're hard to replace, because even if you can mobilize more, the next batch is invariably going to be less motivated.

Until this year, Ukraine hasn't actually had to force people to the front very strongly. There have been enough volunteers and reservists who've been doing most of the fighting. It's a testament to their will to defend their country, but it's not an inexhaustible resource.

Ukrainians want to fight. Russians are being forced to. And they’re getting slaughtered. Ukraine has far better tactics, command and control, and superior logistics. That’s what wins wars. Not cannon fodder. Ukraine can beat them simply by not losing. Even if they lose Bakhmut, it won’t impact them significantly. US military has been saying for weeks that they can withdraw to better lines anyways. They’ve made Russia pay dearly for nothing but a shell of a town. Ukraine wins because Russia can’t conquer them. Ukraine wins because Russia suffers huge casualties, and loses huge amounts of equipment that they can’t replace. They’ve weakened their defenses elsewhere. Russia loses because its economy continues to be degraded. Russia loses until Putin is dead. And a lot of them know that.

Ukraine doesn't have (massively) superior logistics, in my opinion. It has less need for logistics because it has less of everything, and also because they have better quality equipment. If they're twice as accurate, they only need move half as many shells as Russia for the same effect.