How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

As an example of precision artillery use has been Ukraine's very successful use of drones and Russian communications monitoring to find Rusia's munitions depots and destroying them with HIMARS and suicide drones. Javelins and NLAWS are extremely successful.

 

[ZiprHead]

Desperate Russian Forces Are Sticking 80-Year-Old Naval Guns On 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors

The up-gunned, tracked MT-LBs are further evidence of the Kremlin’s worsening equipment crisis as it struggles to make good its losses in Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

The Russian army is welding 80-year-old gun mounts, originally built to arm patrol boats, onto 70-year-old armored tractors—and sending them to Ukraine to get captured by the Ukrainian army.



The up-gunned, tracked MT-LBs are further evidence of the Kremlin’s worsening equipment crisis as it struggles to make good its losses in Ukraine.


The first of these weirdo MT-LBs started showing up in Ukraine last month. On or before Feb. 3, Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar captured from hapless Russian brigades a 13-ton, two-crew MT-LB sporting a 2M-7 gunboat turret.


The 2M-7 is an over-under pair of 14.5-millimeter machine guns behind a steel shield. It entered service with Soviet forces in 1945.

 

[Patooka]

Seriously? Russia has already run out of ZSU 23/4s? Fucking hell, I thought the photos of them using technicals was embarrassing.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Life for the Russian foot soldiers is about to become most very unpleasant.

......
The Ukrainian army announced last week that it had taken possession of a batch of several hundred RPV-16 thermobaric rocket launchers. Produced by Ukraine’s national military-industrial conglomerate, Ukroboronprom, the RPV-16 is a specialized grenade launcher that fires a high-explosive, 93 mm thermobaric round (also known as a fuel-air explosive, or a “vacuum bomb”), which is roughly equivalent to a 122 mm artillery shell in its explosive power.
.....

Ukrainian Army Gets a Batch of New Thermobaric ‘Rocket Flamethrowers’

KYIV, Ukraine — There are flamethrowers. And then there is the thermobaric “rocket flamethrower.

coffeeordie.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

Why Russia’s 155th Brigade is Reportedly Refusing to Carry Out Orders to Capture Vuhledar
Because now virtually everyone is inexperienced. They literally do not know how other than to go out and die.


It took a lickin' but then finally stopped tickin'.

Or maybe the corpse finally fell off the accelerator.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

 

[Jayjay]

According German tabloid Bild there is a difference of opinion between Zelensky and his generals about what to do with Bakhmut. English summary via Kyiv Independent:

Bild: Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on Bakhmut

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

kyivindependent.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

Bild writes that Zaluzhnyi was deliberating a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut weeks ago over concern for the wellbeing of his troops.

The Ukrainian government told Bild that remaining in Bakhmut was the right decision due to the serious damage it inflicted on Russian military personnel and equipment. However, according to other sources cited by the publication, the situation is at risk of becoming untenable.

"The vast majority of soldiers in Bakhmut do not understand why the city is being held," a Ukrainian military analyst told Bild on condition of anonymity.

Another Ukrainian military analyst told Bild that the current ratio of casualties between the Ukrainians and Russians is 1:7, which is why the Ukrainian military pushed to hold Bakhmut. However, they added that "the troops should have been withdrawn three weeks ago when the Russians took Krasna Hora. The decision to keep Bakhmut was a good one, but they overdid it.”

 

[SLD]

According German tabloid Bild there is a difference of opinion between Zelensky and his generals about what to do with Bakhmut. English summary via Kyiv Independent:

Bild: Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on Bakhmut

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

kyivindependent.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

Bild writes that Zaluzhnyi was deliberating a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut weeks ago over concern for the wellbeing of his troops.

The Ukrainian government told Bild that remaining in Bakhmut was the right decision due to the serious damage it inflicted on Russian military personnel and equipment. However, according to other sources cited by the publication, the situation is at risk of becoming untenable.

"The vast majority of soldiers in Bakhmut do not understand why the city is being held," a Ukrainian military analyst told Bild on condition of anonymity.

Another Ukrainian military analyst told Bild that the current ratio of casualties between the Ukrainians and Russians is 1:7, which is why the Ukrainian military pushed to hold Bakhmut. However, they added that "the troops should have been withdrawn three weeks ago when the Russians took Krasna Hora. The decision to keep Bakhmut was a good one, but they overdid it.”

from all I’ve read a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut is a good idea. It’s a pyrrhic victory for Russia. It took them 10 months to go 10 kilometers. They suffered up to 80% casualties. the loss ratio was 7-1 in Ukraines favor. They wasted huge ammunition supplies. They have nothing left to sustain attacks elsewhere, or even defend a good strong counterattack. The city is a destroyed hulk. Some western military leaders are saying that Russian army could be facing mutiny.

Pulling back could conserve forces for a stronger offensive when western supplies reach them soon. They’d be free to attack the city itself since most all of its civilians are gone. It would be dangerous to stay inside the city.

 

[TV and credit cards]

According German tabloid Bild there is a difference of opinion between Zelensky and his generals about what to do with Bakhmut. English summary via Kyiv Independent:

Bild: Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on Bakhmut

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

kyivindependent.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi have conflicting views on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut, according to unnamed sources within the Ukrainian political leadership cited in a report by Bild.

Bild writes that Zaluzhnyi was deliberating a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut weeks ago over concern for the wellbeing of his troops.

The Ukrainian government told Bild that remaining in Bakhmut was the right decision due to the serious damage it inflicted on Russian military personnel and equipment. However, according to other sources cited by the publication, the situation is at risk of becoming untenable.

"The vast majority of soldiers in Bakhmut do not understand why the city is being held," a Ukrainian military analyst told Bild on condition of anonymity.

Another Ukrainian military analyst told Bild that the current ratio of casualties between the Ukrainians and Russians is 1:7, which is why the Ukrainian military pushed to hold Bakhmut. However, they added that "the troops should have been withdrawn three weeks ago when the Russians took Krasna Hora. The decision to keep Bakhmut was a good one, but they overdid it.”

from all I’ve read a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut is a good idea. It’s a pyrrhic victory for Russia. It took them 10 months to go 10 kilometers. They suffered up to 80% casualties. the loss ratio was 7-1 in Ukraines favor. They wasted huge ammunition supplies. They have nothing left to sustain attacks elsewhere, or even defend a good strong counterattack. The city is a destroyed hulk. Some western military leaders are saying that Russian army could be facing mutiny.

Pulling back could conserve forces for a stronger offensive when western supplies reach them soon. They’d be free to attack the city itself since most all of its civilians are gone. It would be dangerous to stay inside the city.

They know they are up against inexperienced, untrained soldiers. Here as in Vuhledar they are taking up an advantageous position and making a turkey shoot of it. Sad but what else can they do?
ISW says Russia is pretty well roached.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

How is she not one of Putin's sheeple? If she protested the war she'd be in prison or dead or maybe given a rifle. So she keeps her mouth shut, a good survival strategy when living in a terrorist state.

 

[Copernicus]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

How is she not one of Putin's sheeple? If she protested the war she'd be in prison or dead or maybe given a rifle. So she keeps her mouth shut, a good survival strategy when living in a terrorist state.

That's an interesting story, given the difficulties that Russians have in travel to Western Europe these days. It's not impossible, but very difficult to get a visa, even if you can go through countries like Turkey. I doubt that her claim about not being affected by the war is realistic, given the stories we have from other Russians about the difficulties involved in foreign travel.

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling​

 

[SLD]

So should we throw turkey out of NATO?

 

[Copernicus]

By the way, if you should encounter a Putin-loving Russian who spouts nonsensical propaganda as if you were expected to believe it, the proper way to respond in a way that he or she would understand in English is: "Don't hang noodles on my ears" or, in Russian, "Не вешай лапшу мне на уши". If you can't read the Russian and need to repeat this in Russian, here is a nice lesson on how to pronounce the expression.

RUSSIAN IDIOMS #5 | To hang noodles on the ears – Вешать лапшу на уши

RUSSIAN IDIOMS #5 | To hang noodles on the ears – Вешать лапшу на ушиTo hang noodles on your ears – Вешать лапшу на ушиIdiom "hang noodles on the ears" means...

www.youtube.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

That's an interesting story, given the difficulties that Russians have in travel to Western Europe these days. It's not impossible, but very difficult to get a visa, even if you can go through countries like Turkey. I doubt that her claim about not being affected by the war is realistic, given the stories we have from other Russians about the difficulties involved in foreign travel.

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling​

And what is her experience with western democracy? When has she lived outside the POW wire to know what freedom is? Western democracies never had to build walls to keep their citizens from escaping. My opinion is she doesn't know her ass from a hole in the ground even though she thinks she does. Cling to the abusive guardian. Sure, I'd do the same thing if that was the best option, game theory and all that.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Reports from the front say Russia is woefully short of trucks. Without adequate supply of trucks, logistic will necessarily suck. Since Ukraine has been very good at destroying munitions depots, such major depots must be far to the rear out of artillery range. Meaning more trucks are needed. Shortage of trucks means transporting munitions or food and water. There don't seem to be enough trucks for both. Many trucks Russia are using are a variety of civilian trucks of numerous makes and models. Meaning when one of these vehicles has mechanical problems, parts may not be available. It is a military shit show.

Yup, NATO deep strike tactics. Ukraine keeps going for the Russian logistics, starving the front lines. The more troops Russia puts on the front the less they can shoot.

 

[Patooka]

from all I’ve read a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut is a good idea.

I'm Schrodinger's Cat on that;

1) It's never good to inject political factors in a military strategy. Bakhmut holds no strategic importance and is anchoring Ukrainian resources that could more profitably be applied elsewhere.

2) If Bakhmut falls Russia will then move on to another city and do the exact same thing to it. Keeping Russia tied down in Bakhmut (a town that is already shelled into oblivion) vastly reduces loss of innocent life in a conflict where Russia is totally fine with committing war crimes..

Point one and two are equally valid.

So should we throw turkey out of NATO?

Inside the tent pissing out is better than outside pissing in. There is plenty to be critical towards Turkey and Erdogan in particular, but telling them to fuck off will only exacerbate things and that's assuming Hungary and Romania will play ball and provide the required unanimous vote.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I do wonder a lot about this, though. In Bakhmut, the fact that it has been meter by meter combat for many months means that we know exactly where the Russians and the Wagner group are. What is it that is preventing the Ukrainians from blanket bombing Russian/Wagner positions? (I know there’s an answer, not questioning their competence, I’m wondering what all the factors are)

Fundamentally, I would say it's because war favors the defense. You'll inflict far more damage if you get them to attack you than if you attack them. In an ideal war you only attack when you find a weakness in the enemy lines, dash through it and cut off their supplies--or leave a gap and shred the enemy as they flee through that gap. There's also the issue that Russia seems incapable of counterbattery against individual units, Ukraine plays shoot-and-scoot and keep plinking away (especially going after the supply depots) but that approach is not too useful for massed fires.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Reports from Ukranians at Bakhmut are that they are low on munitions, food, water and intelligence. They are inflicting heavy losses on the orcs but are taking losses also. In this battle, everybody is hurting.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

How is she not one of Putin's sheeple? If she protested the war she'd be in prison or dead or maybe given a rifle. So she keeps her mouth shut, a good survival strategy when living in a terrorist state.

You are mischaracterising the conversation. She said this while physically in Stockholm, verbally. In a group of non-Russians all convinced that Putin is Hitler. In that situation she could have freely spoken her mind with zero risk of any repurcussions. In that group of people she stuck her chin out and defended Putin when the rest in the room where unanimously opposed to her opinion. She demonstrated a clarity of mind, and an ability to think for herself. While I disagree with her, I don't think she is a fool.

She values Russian power and prosperity above all other concerns. Because she thinks that is what will benefit her personally in the long run. She thinks westerners who fight for democracy and freedom are either stupid, wasting their time on frivolity, or she thinks they're just as laser focused on power as the Russians, just being hypocrites about their true goals.

Much like a fascists and Nazis of the 1920's to 1940'ies she believes we're all locked in an eternal conflict for power and dominance of other people and peoples. She's also pro-Isreali. She thinks the Palestinians would do the same to the Jews if given the opportunity.

You may disagree with her. But it is a rational and coherrent argument.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

How is she not one of Putin's sheeple? If she protested the war she'd be in prison or dead or maybe given a rifle. So she keeps her mouth shut, a good survival strategy when living in a terrorist state.

That's an interesting story, given the difficulties that Russians have in travel to Western Europe these days. It's not impossible, but very difficult to get a visa, even if you can go through countries like Turkey. I doubt that her claim about not being affected by the war is realistic, given the stories we have from other Russians about the difficulties involved in foreign travel.

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling​

As long as any EU country allows Russians to enter, Russians can first travel to that country, and then travel anywhere inside EU freely. Finland will never close the border to Russia. Loads of Finns have companies in Russia. And vice versa. The two country are as economically integrated as it's possible to be. Sealing that border tight will have a devastating impact on the Finnish economy.

The European sanctions against Russia are partly just hot air rhetoric that sound good in propaganda, but so full of loopholes they become ineffective.

If you're a working class Russian then yes, you can't travel freely. But then again, you wouldn't have been able to afford to anyway. So it's a moot point.