I do wonder a lot about this, though. In Bakhmut, the fact that it has been meter by meter combat for many months means that we know exactly where the Russians and the Wagner group are. What is it that is preventing the Ukrainians from blanket bombing Russian/Wagner positions? (I know there’s an answer, not questioning their competence, I’m wondering what all the factors are)
From the March 4th USW report:
(There’s ore detail there for those who are not already following)
Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon. Russian forces made one limited confirmed advance near Bakhmut on March 4.[1] As ISW reported on March 3, Ukrainian forces are likely setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal out of particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut, although it is not clear that Ukrainian commanders have decided to withdraw at this time.[2] Russian sources claim that Wagner Group elements have made gains in northeastern and eastern Bakhmut over the past few days, creating a tactically challenging turning movement in urban areas in northern Bakhmut.[3] Ukrainian officials have recently reiterated that Ukrainian forces still control the situation in Bakhmut but have noted that circumstances are increasingly complicated and that the Wagner Group has committed its most advanced and prepared elements to assault operations in the area.[4]
(Underlined emphasis mine)
I’m curious if there is a set of weapons or trainings that would allow Ukraine to exploit that location knowledge and strike a morale blow by a big campaign that affects large numbers of Russian troops.
Thoughts?
Simple: lack of ammunition. We’ve struggled to produce and send Ukraine sufficient ammunition for artillery for the entire war. They throw 1/3 of the shells that Russia throws.
In WWII it wasn’t uncommon to throw tens of thousands of shells at a single position. When the US 36th Division tried to cross the Rapido in January 44, their artillery fired 1,000 rounds per minute. Mortar crews, tanks and fighter bombers added to this. This went on for 1/2 hour before the infantry went in. And it still didn’t work.
Ukraine is firing less than 10,000 a day, on all fronts. And western factories are struggling to keep up with the demand. Ukraine isn’t likely to get significant ammunition supplies for years! Instead the focus has been on training them to fight with less ammunition.
In WWI, bombardments were even larger than in WWII, and just as ineffective. Prior to the Battle of the Somme, British artillery fired one and a half
million shells, over four days. Thirty thousand shells over half an hour looks like a drop in the bucket by comparison.
The fact is that over the last century, artillery doctrine (as with the doctrines of all military systems) has gone from quantity to quality. A huge, area wide bombardment, over days rather than hours, is just not as effective as a short, targeted attack on specific enemy positions and strongpoints.
In a large barrage, most of your ammunition is wasted turning over rubble; And the longer it lasts, the more time it gives the enemy to anticipate and prepare for an assault in the area.
If you can develop tactics and procedures that double the effectiveness of your weapons system, you can achieve the same effect with only half as much ammunition, saving not only the ammunition itself, but also the entire logistics train that supports your batteries, freeing up transportation resources for other, more tactically valuable, materiel.
A massive reduction in the scale of artillery bombardments over time is an inevitable outcome of improved technology, both in terms of the guns and shells themselves, and of the targeting and target identification and designation systems. If you know where the target is, can destroy the target in one hit, and can hit it with one shot, you don't need to fire thousands of shells at it over several days in the hope that several will score hits and that this will be adequate to destroy it.
