How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Why are you so sensitive to not wanting to be called out as a partisan? I don't remember you saying much bad about Bush. You hated Obama. Hate Biden. Never saw you say anything bad about Tyrant Trump. You need to just let it go and embrace the Chi!Oh yeah? Oh yeah? You said a bad thing about Biden? You ... you ... you're a Trump supporter! So there! Nyah! You doo-doo head."

Fixed.

Anyway, you're not keeping up. The west, including the US, is trying to prevent one country from conquering another. We're not starting the fight, we're trying to prevent it.

Since neither country is attacking the US, that means this is not the US's fight. That is hard to comprehend, but it is my consistent position.

Contrast to your consistent position of ... well, I'm sure you must have one somewhere.

 

[SLD]

War is a lot of fun. Have at it Russia.

 

[barbos]

War is a lot of fun. Have at it Russia.

You honestly believe that war will be different from "occupation" Crimea?

 

[fromderinside]

Here's a bit on Belarus

And?

hey barbos, why aren't Ukrainian units moving to Ukrainian border with Russia. Oh yeah. I know why. Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and took Crimea as well.

So how can Ukraine be the aggressor when Russia is already inside Ukraine?

Why aren't you speaking out about existing Russian aggression against Ukraine?

I did not say Ukraine was an aggressor. I said NATO was an agressor.
NATO (mainly US) made a coup in Ukraine, installed puppet regime and now moves IN. Why aren't you speaking out about that?

[removed video repeat]

The idea that Russia is a democracy is only in the eyes of Russian mouths which, as we all know, aren't eyes.

 

[lpetrich]

I think that we should look more closely at  NATO -- the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

It was formed in the aftermath of World War II, when the Soviet Union ended up dominating most of Eastern Europe and remaking it in its Communist likeness.

NATO originated as the Western Union Defence Organization, formed in 1948 by Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, and the United Kingdom as a response to the Soviet Union's blockade of Berlin and a Soviet-supported coup in Czechoslovakia. In 1949, the United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland joined in, and NATO got its present name. A British official stated that it was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down".

Greece and Turkey joined in 1952, and West Germany in 1955. In response, the Soviet Union, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, and East Germany formed the Warsaw Pact.

Around this time, French President Charles de Gaulle did some nationalist posturing, pulling France out of NATO's command, but still being in the alliance. France did not return until 2009.

Spain joined in 1982 when it became a democracy after the death of long-time dictator Francisco Franco.

The Soviet bloc fell over 1989 - 1991, with the Soviet Union breaking up and the Warsaw Pact being disbanded.

When East Germany joined West Germany in 1991, the reunified nation continued the NATO membership of its western half.

From  History of NATO - "There was no formal commitment in the agreement not to expand NATO to the east, but there are diverging views on whether negotiators gave informal commitments regarding further NATO expansion." The argument lots of contradictory statements, with some officials saying that NATO will not expand eastward toward Russia, and some others saying that NATO has made no such commitment.

 

[barbos]

The idea that Russia is a democracy is only in the eyes of Russian mouths which, as we all know, aren't eyes.

OK, don't know how it's related to the topic, but OK

 

[lpetrich]

Despite that contradictory record, NATO expanded eastward into former Soviet-Bloc territory in 1999, with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joining. Then in 2004, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria joined. The first three were the first ex-Soviet republics to join. In 2009, Albania and Croatia joined, in 2017, Montenegro joined, and in 2020, North Macedonia joined.

Who's left? Ireland, Switzerland, and Austria seem to have no interest in joining, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, Asian Georgia, Ukraine, Sweden, Finland, and Serbia are possible additional members.

B-H is now participating in the Membership Action Plan, which includes reports on

• Willingness to settle international, ethnic or external territorial disputes by peaceful means, commitment to the rule of law and human rights, and democratic control of armed forces
• Ability to contribute to the organization's defence and missions
• Devotion of sufficient resources to armed forces to be able to meet the commitments of membership
• Security of sensitive information, and safeguards ensuring it
• Compatibility of domestic legislation with NATO cooperation

 

[barbos]

but there are diverging views on whether negotiators gave informal commitments regarding further NATO expansion." The argument lots of contradictory statements, with some officials saying that NATO will not expand eastward toward Russia, and some others saying that NATO has made no such commitment.

According to video, it's not in dispute.

[removed video repeat]

 

[lpetrich]

Sweden and Finland?

• Rattled by Russia, Finland and Sweden revisit NATO debate
• Will Finland and Sweden Join NATO?
• NATO - Opinion: Press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland, Pekka Haavisto and the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Ann Linde, 24-Jan.-2022

Though neither country is a NATO member, they have both had a long history of cooperating with NATO.

Sweden has not been in a war for two centuries. Its last war was in 1814, against Norway, in the Napoleonic Wars. Sweden stayed out of both WWI and WWII, and over the Cold War, did not join NATO.

Finland was ruled by Sweden in the 18th cy., then by Russia in the 19th cy. as the Grand Duchy of Finland. Toward the end of WWI, Finland became independent. In WWII, Finland fought the Soviet Union, losing some territory in the southeast, including the city of Vyborg / Viipuri.

During the Cold War, Finland had a policy of being conciliatory to the Soviet Union no matter what, and many people feared that other European nations may end up doing that, something they called "Finlandization".

But both countries are now having plenty of discussion of joining NATO.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Why are you so sensitive to not wanting to be called out as a partisan? I don't remember you saying much bad about Bush. You hated Obama. Hate Biden. Never saw you say anything bad about Tyrant Trump. You need to just let it go and embrace the Chi!Oh yeah? Oh yeah? You said a bad thing about Biden? You ... you ... you're a Trump supporter! So there! Nyah! You doo-doo head."

Fixed.

Anyway, you're not keeping up. The west, including the US, is trying to prevent one country from conquering another. We're not starting the fight, we're trying to prevent it.

Since neither country is attacking the US, that means this is not the US's fight. That is hard to comprehend, but it is my consistent position.

Contrast to your consistent position of ... well, I'm sure you must have one somewhere.

Amigo, I'm pretty consistent: I'm against imperialism. I was against Iraq invasion. I believe that people within a country should have the right to pick their own leaders. I'm against dictatorships. Your foreign policy beliefs seem to be reduced to that the US should stay at home and engage the world. Not very realistic. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

Secondly, we have no troops in Ukraine. And we're not sending them. We have been sending them defensive weapons in order to encourage Russia to not attack.

 

[fromderinside]

but there are diverging views on whether negotiators gave informal commitments regarding further NATO expansion." The argument lots of contradictory statements, with some officials saying that NATO will not expand eastward toward Russia, and some others saying that NATO has made no such commitment.

According to video, it's not in dispute.

[removed video repeat]

Barbos, NATO is not expanding. Rather, former captive states of Russia are joining NATO because they want to be part of the European Union and out of fear that Russia will do what they are trying to do with Ukraine, take them over again.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Sweden and Finland?

• Rattled by Russia, Finland and Sweden revisit NATO debate
• Will Finland and Sweden Join NATO?
• NATO - Opinion: Press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland, Pekka Haavisto and the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Ann Linde, 24-Jan.-2022

Though neither country is a NATO member, they have both had a long history of cooperating with NATO.

Sweden has not been in a war for two centuries. Its last war was in 1814, against Norway, in the Napoleonic Wars. Sweden stayed out of both WWI and WWII, and over the Cold War, did not join NATO.

Finland was ruled by Sweden in the 18th cy., then by Russia in the 19th cy. as the Grand Duchy of Finland. Toward the end of WWI, Finland became independent. In WWII, Finland fought the Soviet Union, losing some territory in the southeast, including the city of Vyborg / Viipuri.

During the Cold War, Finland had a policy of being conciliatory to the Soviet Union no matter what, and many people feared that other European nations may end up doing that, something they called "Finlandization".

But both countries are now having plenty of discussion of joining NATO.

Very interesting links above. I think that the question is really what does Putin really want? Is he honestly threatening Ukraine in order to encourage countries to not join NATO? How does that make any sense? The grandmaster chessmaster is encouraging countries to join NATO now. His actions are uniting the Eastern Euoro countries against Russia.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Why are you so sensitive to not wanting to be called out as a partisan? I don't remember you saying much bad about Bush. You hated Obama. Hate Biden. Never saw you say anything bad about Tyrant Trump. You need to just let it go and embrace the Chi!Oh yeah? Oh yeah? You said a bad thing about Biden? You ... you ... you're a Trump supporter! So there! Nyah! You doo-doo head."

Fixed.

Anyway, you're not keeping up. The west, including the US, is trying to prevent one country from conquering another. We're not starting the fight, we're trying to prevent it.

Since neither country is attacking the US, that means this is not the US's fight. That is hard to comprehend, but it is my consistent position.

Contrast to your consistent position of ... well, I'm sure you must have one somewhere.

Amigo, I'm pretty consistent: I'm against imperialism. I was against Iraq invasion. I believe that people within a country should have the right to pick their own leaders. I'm against dictatorships. Your foreign policy beliefs seem to be reduced to that the US should stay at home and engage the world. Not very realistic. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

Secondly, we have no troops in Ukraine. And we're not sending them. We have been sending them defensive weapons in order to encourage Russia to not attack.

Unlike most people who opposed the Iraq war, I opposed it both before and after January of 2009. For some reason most of the people who agreed with me that the US shouldn't be in Iraq disappeared in January 2009. I wonder if something happened in January 2009 that cause them all to disappear.

Do you remember anything significant happening in January 2009? Especially towards the latter half of that month? Some gala event in Washington DC?

I am not an isolationist, which is what you want to imply, because I don't believe in cutting the US off from the world. There is still significant distance between not sending our troops all over the world in search of bad guys to fight and having no interaction at all. Yes, the troops should stay at home unless there is actually a threat to the US, because the job of the troops is to defend the US. I am no fan of world police, and think that the US should not do it.

 

[lpetrich]

What of Ukraine? For that, we must consider the history of the Soviet Union, full name the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Republics?  Republics of the Soviet Union -  Dissolution of the Soviet Union -  Post-Soviet states

In late 1917, the Bolshevik revolutionaries, led by Vladimir Lenin, overthrew the Provisional Government of Russia. This started some years of civil war that resulted in the Bolsheviks taking over most of the former Russian Empire. The Soviet Union was formed in 1922 as a union of then-independent Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Transcaucasia. The full name of Russia back then was the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, and likewise for the others.

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan joined as full-scale republics in 1924, Tajikistan in 1929, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in 1936. Also In 1936, Transcaucasia was split into Georgia (not the US state!), Armenia, and Azerbaijan. So by then, the Soviet Union had 11 republics.

During World War II, the Soviet Union conquered Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Moldova, giving 15 republics.

That nation disintegrated over 1990 - 1991, with the three Baltic States, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, becoming independent in 1990, and the others doing so over the next year. The Soviet Union was officially abolished late that year, first by the three Slavic republics, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and then by 9 of the 12 remaining republics. Though Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called the action an "unconstitutional coup", there was nothing he could do about it, and he conceded that his position had been voted out of existence.

 

[barbos]

Barbos, NATO is not expanding. Rather, former captive states of Russia are joining NATO because they want to be part of the European Union and out of fear that Russia will do what they are trying to do with Ukraine, take them over again.

That's neocon propaganda talk.

 

[barbos]

His actions are uniting the Eastern Euoro countries against Russia.

No it does not. Germany is not on board, Hungary is not on board, Croatia wants nothing to to with it (president at least).

NATO is a house of cards which keeps an appearance of unity. There is none.

 

[lpetrich]

War With Russia Has Pushed Ukrainians Toward The West | FiveThirtyEight has some interesting polling.

Starting at least in 2008, Ukrainians' feelings toward Russia were mostly positive, about 85% - 15%. But in 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea. Ever since, Ukrainians have been about evenly divided toward Russia.

Ukrainians are also more willing to join NATO, though they are divided on that also.


Putin: Soviet collapse a 'genuine tragedy' - 2005 Apr 12

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the nation Monday that the collapse of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” and had fostered separatist movements inside Russia.

In his annual state of the nation address to parliament and the country’s top political leaders, Putin said the Soviet collapse also was a tragedy for Russians.

“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.

“The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself,” he said, referring to separatist movements such as those in Chechnya.

Russian Lawmakers Seek to Recognize Soviet Fall as ‘Greatest 20th Century Catastrophe’ - The Moscow Times

Russian lawmakers seek to declare the fall of the Soviet Union three decades ago “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”

The proposal submitted Monday by the right-wing nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) to the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, borrows from President Vladimir Putin’s famous 2005 remark about the Soviet collapse. It comes ahead of the 30th anniversary of the U.S.S.R.'s disintegration.

“The State Duma… considers the collapse of the U.S.S.R. the main geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, which led to disintegration in various areas of society,” LDPR says in its declaration.

It adds that Soviet disintegration also led to the “exacerbation of the economic and political crisis and the emergence of conflicts on national grounds.”

This makes me ask: what do they want? A restoration of the Soviet Union?

 

[Harry Bosch]

His actions are uniting the Eastern Euoro countries against Russia.

No it does not. Germany is not on board, Hungary is not on board, Croatia wants nothing to to with it (president at least).

NATO is a house of cards which keeps an appearance of unity. There is none.

Are you able to read lpetrich's links? Of course, this is discord in the Nato countries and the eastern European countries. In a democracy, dissent is expected. But Russian aggression is uniting the countries together. People don't like to be bullied.

 

[barbos]

Are you able to read lpetrich's links?

Are you able to watch videos I posted? In case you are deaf you can turn CC.
You repeat garbage which was already addressed.

 

[Harry Bosch]

War With Russia Has Pushed Ukrainians Toward The West | FiveThirtyEight has some interesting polling.

Starting at least in 2008, Ukrainians' feelings toward Russia were mostly positive, about 85% - 15%. But in 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea. Ever since, Ukrainians have been about evenly divided toward Russia.

Ukrainians are also more willing to join NATO, though they are divided on that also.


Putin: Soviet collapse a 'genuine tragedy' - 2005 Apr 12

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the nation Monday that the collapse of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” and had fostered separatist movements inside Russia.

In his annual state of the nation address to parliament and the country’s top political leaders, Putin said the Soviet collapse also was a tragedy for Russians.

“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.

“The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself,” he said, referring to separatist movements such as those in Chechnya.

Russian Lawmakers Seek to Recognize Soviet Fall as ‘Greatest 20th Century Catastrophe’ - The Moscow Times

Russian lawmakers seek to declare the fall of the Soviet Union three decades ago “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”

The proposal submitted Monday by the right-wing nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) to the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, borrows from President Vladimir Putin’s famous 2005 remark about the Soviet collapse. It comes ahead of the 30th anniversary of the U.S.S.R.'s disintegration.

“The State Duma… considers the collapse of the U.S.S.R. the main geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, which led to disintegration in various areas of society,” LDPR says in its declaration.

It adds that Soviet disintegration also led to the “exacerbation of the economic and political crisis and the emergence of conflicts on national grounds.”

This makes me ask: what do they want? A restoration of the Soviet Union?

I really don't know. Again, if their sole purpose is to restore the Soviet Union, they are crazy. Putin is uniting Nato. It's possible that they are going crazy in order to get Nato to negotiate and reinstate the ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe that Trump abandoned. If so, I say let's proceed. The elimination of this ban was completely unnecessary and harmful for Russian relations with Nato.