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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Years ago, I browsed through old articles from Foreign Affairs magazine and found this article published by a Nazi diplomat justifying his country’s decision to invade Poland.

That article is paywalled. What was that diplomat's argument?
Sorry. I read it decades ago. It just argued that they did everything to avoid war, but then Poland attacked their radio station and they had no choice but to invade. Of course we know that it was a false flag operation and this article just shows the length of distortion people go to justify war.
 
Sorry. I read it decades ago. It just argued that they did everything to avoid war, but then Poland attacked their radio station and they had no choice but to invade. Of course we know that it was a false flag operation and this article just shows the length of distortion people go to justify war.
There is some talk that Russia will mount a similar false flag operation, but all they need to do is get their rebel clients in the occupied Donbas to start shelling Ukrainian positions. That will draw a response that the Russians can frame as an unprovoked attack which threatened the civilian population that Russia was protecting.
 
There is some talk that Russia will mount a similar false flag operation, but all they need to do is get their rebel clients in the occupied Donbas to start shelling Ukrainian positions. That will draw a response that the Russians can frame as an unprovoked attack which threatened the civilian population that Russia was protecting.
No doubt that's how it's going to fall out. Putin will invent some kind of incident, the big questions are what, where and when. He'll also time it to coincide with something else happening globally. It's most likely that they've already decided exactly what they are going to do and where they are going to do it but are just waiting for the right time.
 
Since Dementia Joe seems to be stumbling towards war with Russia, I hope at least one of those in agreement with him can answer this one question.

What is the vital US interest in Ukraine?
As a supporter of Dementia Donny"Oh yeah? Oh yeah? You said a bad thing about Biden? You ... you ... you're a Trump supporter! So there! Nyah! You doo-doo head.",

Fixed

you probably see the resurrection of the Cold War and old Soviet empire in a much kinder light than most Americans. However, I do think that right wing ideologues have also found common cause with some of the left wing ideologues, who also have a more sympathetic view of Russian talking points.

My position, isn't about being sympathetic to Russia, it is about not starting any new wars. Perhaps, just maybe, there are people who actually think war is bad.

Nah, not in modern USA. The only reason to oppose new wars is the party of the president.

Ukraine is not "vital" to US interests, and that is why we won't be sending any troops in to defend it in case of Russian invasion. It is important to us, because we pledged to support its security back in 1994 in exchange for the denuclearization of that country. Ever since then, we have been working with Ukraine to help it fight corruption and establish a liberal democracy. They are an important ally, but not vital in the sense that we need to get involved in a war to save them from its aggressive neighbor. We also need to stand up for the right of other nations to live in peaceful coexistence--something that Russia currently does not see as being in its own interests.

Since it is not vital, why is Dementia Joe getting the US ready for war over it?
 
Russia has 100,000 troops positioned near the border of Ukraine. The The USSR collapsed in 1991. Among the units remaining was the nation of Ukraine. Putin want's to reform the USSR. But those nations not now under the Soviet yolk don't want to be part of it. How can anyone say it is the US who is the aggressor here.

The only aggressor is Russia with 100,000 troops near the borders of Ukraine ordered there by Putin.
 
Since it is not vital, why is Dementia Joe getting the US ready for war over it?
Well, I'm not surprised that a Dementia Donny supporter doesn't actually pay attention to what Dementia Joe is actually doing. The US is not doing a thing to get "ready for war". It is not mobilizing. It is not sending troops to Ukraine. It is not threatening Russia with war. In fact, Dementia Joe is actually giving assurances that he is not going to get the US in a war over Ukraine. He is, however, acting in concert with NATO members to strengthen their defensive posture near that threatened hostilities by Dementia Donny's former BFF, Vlad the Underwear Poisoner. (I'm trying to stay with the theme of using dumbed-down insulting names for presidents so that you can figure out who's who. ;)) Also, as per the US 1994 commitment in the Budapest Memo to guarantee Ukraine's security, Dementia Joe unaccountably remembered enough to send purely defensive weapons to Ukraine that could help deter Dementia Donny's BFF, Russia's Vlad the Underwear Poisoner, from invading Ukraine. Hope that answers your question. :tongue-new:
 
It is not particularly helpful to keep reposting videos without any explicit comment to make them relevant to the discussion is unhelpful. If people want to watch that video, they will. Others may decide not to and move on. But continuing to repost the same video over and over is a form of an  Ad nauseam fallacy.

Ad nauseam is a Latin term for an argument or other discussion that has continued to the point of nausea.[1][2] For example, "this has been discussed ad nauseam" indicates that the topic has been discussed extensively and those involved have grown sick of it. The fallacy of dragging the conversation to an ad nauseam state in order to then assert one's position as correct due to it not having been contradicted is also called argumentum ad infinitum (to infinity) and argument from repetition.[3]

The term is defined by the American Heritage Dictionary as "to a disgusting or ridiculous degree; to the point of nausea."[3] Colloquially, it is sometimes used as "until nobody cares to discuss it any more."
 
Congratulations Putin. You’ve just kickstarted three new LNG facilities in the US. These do not get financed without long term contracts in place. So regardless of the outcome of your latest irresponsible act, this gas will come on to the market.
If you keep going the way you’re going, you’re going pressure Germany into further delaying Nord Stream 2. Maybe by time it’s operational, the price of nat gas will hit rock bottom again, which will only harm the Russian economy. Have the Russian people figured this out yet? Y’all gotta get rid of this dude.

Why even bother imposing sanctions? It’s just going to further harm the Russian people. Putin is doing enough damage.

I swear, it’s like Ivan Drago in the ring punching himself in the face.

Reuters
 
American LNG has been trying to scary Gazprom/Russia into submission since forever.
It's just more expensive. But I am glad you finally admit that it's about your desire to sell your gas to EU. Unfortunately for you, Germany is not buying it.
And American LNG can be sold with greater profit in Asia, so....
 
Since Dementia Joe seems to be stumbling towards war with Russia, I hope at least one of those in agreement with him can answer this one question.

What is the vital US interest in Ukraine?
As a supporter of Dementia Donny"Oh yeah? Oh yeah? You said a bad thing about Biden? You ... you ... you're a Trump supporter! So there! Nyah! You doo-doo head.",

Fixed

you probably see the resurrection of the Cold War and old Soviet empire in a much kinder light than most Americans. However, I do think that right wing ideologues have also found common cause with some of the left wing ideologues, who also have a more sympathetic view of Russian talking points.

My position, isn't about being sympathetic to Russia, it is about not starting any new wars. Perhaps, just maybe, there are people who actually think war is bad.

Nah, not in modern USA. The only reason to oppose new wars is the party of the president.

Ukraine is not "vital" to US interests, and that is why we won't be sending any troops in to defend it in case of Russian invasion. It is important to us, because we pledged to support its security back in 1994 in exchange for the denuclearization of that country. Ever since then, we have been working with Ukraine to help it fight corruption and establish a liberal democracy. They are an important ally, but not vital in the sense that we need to get involved in a war to save them from its aggressive neighbor. We also need to stand up for the right of other nations to live in peaceful coexistence--something that Russia currently does not see as being in its own interests.

Since it is not vital, why is Dementia Joe getting the US ready for war over it?
Why are you so sensitive to not wanting to be called out as a partisan? I don't remember you saying much bad about Bush. You hated Obama. Hate Biden. Never saw you say anything bad about Tyrant Trump. You need to just let it go and embrace the Chi!

Anyway, you're not keeping up. The west, including the US, is trying to prevent one country from conquering another. We're not starting the fight, we're trying to prevent it.
 
Seems to me that we need more renewable-energy development. A LOT more. That's good for self-reliance, since one does not need continual shipments of fuel from distant places -- and often politically unstable or autocratic places.

 Resource curse -- The Natural Resource Curse | Harvard Kennedy School -- The Resource Curse | Natural Resource Governance Institute -- "Many oil-, gas- and mineral-rich countries have failed to reach their full potential as a result of their natural resource wealth. In general, they are also more authoritarian, more prone to conflict, and less economically stable than countries without these resources."

From 11 years ago, and still true today:

In the Middle East and the West, Oil and Democracy Don’t Mix | Columbia News
An expert on political theory, political economy and the politics of technology, Mitchell asserts that “it was coal that helped create the possibility of modern democracy, and it was oil that helped create its limits.”

He argues that dependence on coal—a single, concentrated energy source—enabled people to build collective political power around the flow of that material. Workers wielded power because they could, through a general strike, shut down the entire system if their demands were not met. The sheer number of workers needed in the coal industry, and their access to critically important mines, rail yards and processing plants, gave them political power.

By contrast, oil workers are comparatively few, and they do not have to go into the ground themselves to bring up the oil. It goes right into a pipeline, onto a tanker and around the globe.

“Oil is not vulnerable to the same kinds of political pressures,” says Mitchell, who joined Columbia in 2008 after teaching for 25 years at New York University, where he served as director of the Center for Near Eastern Studies. “The fluidity—literally—of oil makes it much more difficult for people to build power.”
Oil and Democracy Don’t Mix - Oil Change International
I remember years ago going to a lecture by a senior executive from Premier Oil about operating in Burma and he said that oil men liked working in authoritarian regimes as they were much more predictable than democracies. Ironically they were more stable.
Though that changed with the Arab Spring revolts.
It is no coincidence that many of the Middle East’s more ruthless dictators were sitting on large deposits of oil. The relationship between authoritarian regimes, oil and the Arab Spring is explored by Michael Ross, Professor of Political Science at the University of California, in an illuminating essay entitled “Will Oil Drown the Arab Spring?” which has been published by Harpers Magazine (subscription needed) and Foreign Affairs Magazine (behind paywall).

“Scholars have called this the oil curse” argues Ross, “arguing that oil wealth leads to authoritarianism, economic instability, corruption, and violent conflict”.
 
I checked on Economist magazine's  Democracy Index and  List of countries by oil production -- most of the top countries are very low on democracy. The exceptions, like Norway, had long traditions of democracy before the discovery of oil.

...
It is also no surprise that many of the more oil-rich authoritarian regimes have managed to hold on to power by essentially bribing their population with lower taxes or blatant hand-outs: Algeria invested $150 billion in new infrastructure and sugar handouts; Saudi Arabia offered $130 billion to increase wages and unemployment benefits. Kuwait went for the route-one bribe by offering citizens a cash lump sum of 1,000 dinars and free food.

It is also not surprising that the more oil wealth an autocratic regime has, the more secretive it is.

...
The other thing that oil allows brutal dictatorships to do is spend vast amounts of cash on their secret services and armed forces which helps them crush internal dissent and ward of external threats of invasion (although this did not help Saddam or Gaddafi).

Finally Ross points out that the oil curse is of course not related to the Middle East. Any regular reader of this blog will know how the people of Sub Saharan Africa have suffered, especially in places like the Niger Delta.

So finally how do we rid ourselves of this vile curse? The answer is blindingly obvious. “The oil curse will last only as long as the world buys huge quantities of oil,” argues Ross.
[/quote]
The development of renewable energy so far hasn't been able to make much of a dent in oil production. That is because most renewable-energy development so far has been for electricity generation: wind turbines and solar panels. These directly compete with coal and natural gas, and not very much with oil.

But renewable-energy hydrogen and synfuels have been getting a buzz, and that's what's necessary for competing with oil.
 
most renewable-energy development so far has been for electricity generation: wind turbines and solar panels. These directly compete with coal and natural gas, and not very much with oil.

As electric vehicles become ubiquitous that will change.
I’m looking right now, at the possibility of replacing the propane boiler that provides hot water and radiant heat in the house, with an electric one. A solar array of around 1200 sq ft should cut winter heating costs by more than half, and give a surplus in the summer. Which raises my interest in replacing one or more of our vehicles with a plug - in electric one, which could get its “fuel” from the same system.
 
So Russia says they won’t “start” the war. Right. Separatists will. Supplied by Russia, they will advance until they are attacked, then Russia will have its provocation.

I’m reminded of an old bumper sticker from the 80’s: Nuclear War, let’s get it over with!”
 
Western nations need to change the narrative from being about Ukraine to being about Putin, Russia and territorial aggression, not national security. They need to hammer, hammer, hammer, hammer on that point.
 
Western nations need to change the narrative from being about Ukraine to being about Putin, Russia and territorial aggression, not national security. They need to hammer, hammer, hammer, hammer on that point.
I agree. If they could speak with a unified voice, that would be the refrain. MSNBC has been refreshingly straight up and blunt about it. But then there are the Tucker Carlsons of the world, siding with Pootles just to “own the libs”. I swear, they’d run themselves through a wood chipper if they thought it would “own the libs”.
 
So Russia says they won’t “start” the war. Right. Separatists will. Supplied by Russia, they will advance until they are attacked, then Russia will have its provocation.
US has more experience at provoking wars, they know.
 
Western nations need to change the narrative from being about Ukraine to being about Putin, Russia and territorial aggression, not national security. They need to hammer, hammer, hammer, hammer on that point.
I agree. If they could speak with a unified voice, that would be the refrain. MSNBC has been refreshingly straight up and blunt about it. But then there are the Tucker Carlsons of the world, siding with Pootles just to “own the libs”. I swear, they’d run themselves through a wood chipper if they thought it would “own the libs”.
Maybe we should start that rumor....
 
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