How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

Only quick path to victory I see for Ukraine is if Russia somehow collapses from within. And the chances of that are really small.

I think everyone is done with quick fixes. Putin and his apologists have made it very clear what they want. If it's not quick it still needs to be done. I seriously doubt I'm unique in that sentiment.

 

[Jayjay]

Only quick path to victory I see for Ukraine is if Russia somehow collapses from within. And the chances of that are really small.

I think everyone is done with quick fixes. Putin and his apologists have made it very clear what they want. If it's not quick it still needs to be done. I seriously doubt I'm unique in that sentiment.

Regime change can't be forced from the outside. Neither quickly nor slowly. If it happens, great! But we in the west or Ukraine have very limited tools to help it along.

This war will be won in the battlefield if at all.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

What Ukraine will continue to do is inflict very heavy loses on the orcs. Until being a Russian conscript sent to the front is realized to be a death sentence. We might then eventual see military revolts against incompetent military commands, fraggings, mass surrenders, and eventually Russians waking up to the incompetence and uselessness of Putin and his cronies.

Ukraine has just recieved and has started using the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs with better range than the HIMARS.

 

[Elixir]

Waiting til the 24 election is not in the cards for him. And it won’t help him anyways.

Pretty sure he thinks it will. Xi probably promised to help him get Trump back in office to complete the assignment of destroying America … and NATO along with it.

Putin can think any damn thing he pleases. He’s full of shit.

Full of shit doesn’t help. He is in control of a hundred and a half million people and all their assets.
I don’t think that’s going to help Trump much, but it definitely does mean he can think whatever he wants.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine has just recieved and has started using the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs with better range than the HIMARS.

Have they really? The only source I can find is Russian MoD claiming to have shot down one.

 

[Patooka]

Regime change can't be forced from the outside.

One thing.

This war will be won in the battlefield if at all.

Different thing. It's easy to mistake the two. But they are very different. In fact it is very likely that Ukraine will repel Putin's force's and Putin still be in charge and still have to to listen to barbos' revision. They can all happen at once and still be a meaningful outcome.

And the most likely outcome.

 

[Jayjay]

Regime change can't be forced from the outside.

One thing.

This war will be won in the battlefield if at all.

Different thing. It's easy to mistake the two. But they are very different. In fact it is very likely that Ukraine will repel Putin's force's and Putin still be in charge and still have to to listen to barbos' revision. They can all happen at once and still be a meaningful outcome.

And the most likely outcome.

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.

When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

 

[SLD]

Regime change can't be forced from the outside.

One thing.

This war will be won in the battlefield if at all.

Different thing. It's easy to mistake the two. But they are very different. In fact it is very likely that Ukraine will repel Putin's force's and Putin still be in charge and still have to to listen to barbos' revision. They can all happen at once and still be a meaningful outcome.

And the most likely outcome.

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.

When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin. He wouldn’t be able to spin it so easily. Russia hasn’t been kind to leaders who fail in military affairs. Right now, they are likely many Russian officers who would love to take him out, but they don’t feel strong enough or are unsure of the reaction they’d get. A clear cut military defeat could give them the authority to act.

A stalemate also could result in action against him. But that might take longer. That’s why I say the best course of action is to give Ukraine all the support that they need. Give them a thousand M1A1’s, a thousand Leopard two’s. If Russia is defeated, we won’t need them! Give them all the artillery they need. Train them. Give them plenty of air craft and drones. Ramp up military production across all NATO Allie’s and give ti to Ukraine. Don’t worry about bleeding down our stocks. If Russia is defeated, the west won’t need any of that, and I believe that it would deter Xi from launching any crazy attack.

 

[Jayjay]

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.


When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin.

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

 

[Patooka]

But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.

I'm very sorry, you make an excellent argument. That is still a very repulsive way of looking at things. I'm quite certain most Ukrainians aren't looking at things in terms of winning and losing. Just being safe is probably on their minds. It would be for me.

So I don't think Russian regime change is a priority in this conflict. Stopping Russian aggression is. And I think both are worthy goals. I don't think Putin has Russia's best interests at heart and I think he is a driving force for this illegal invasion. I think there is also merit in ignoring all that if Russia withdraws. The priority is stopping the invasion. I think you agree, I just don't think regime change and battlefield victories necessarily go hand in hand.

 

[SLD]

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.


When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin.

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

Not plausible? What the fuck are you drinking? What the fuck do you think has already happened sevreal times in this war? First the Russians get their ass kicked out of northern Ukraine, then they get kicked out of the area around Kharkiv, then Kherson. But now they can’t suddenly win? Seriously?

You’re just bean counting. Russia is just a big bad fighting machine. Bullshit. They’re a paper bear. They can’t even capture Bakhmut. Every offensive they’ve taken has failed. Quit bean counting. Ukraine can win, especially if we give them what they need.

 

[Patooka]

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

Robert McNamara felt the same way with regards to Vietnam.

 

[Jayjay]

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.


When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin.

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

Not plausible? What the fuck are you drinking? What the fuck do you think has already happened sevreal times in this war? First the Russians get their ass kicked out of northern Ukraine, then they get kicked out of the area around Kharkiv, then Kherson. But now they can’t suddenly win? Seriously?

Conditions for those victories don't exist anymore. The initial push back was due to gross underestimation of Ukraine capabilities, and gross overestimation of Russian capabilities on Putin's part. Kharkiv was possible because Russia had severe manpower disadvantage: no mobilization yet, and too many troops trapped in Kherson. And Kherson bridgehead was a stupid place to defend because it could only be supplied via two bridges and barges.

Those local victories were the low-hanging fruit. I haven't seen Ukraine making any progress in 4 and a half months, only losing ground (albeit slowly).

You’re just bean counting. Russia is just a big bad fighting machine. Bullshit. They’re a paper bear. They can’t even capture Bakhmut. Every offensive they’ve taken has failed. Quit bean counting. Ukraine can win, especially if we give them what they need.

I think Russia will capture Bakhmut.

Recently UK MoD reported that Wagner mercenaries are being moved out of Bakhmut to fight in Avdiivka. To me this is a signal of not giving up Bakhmut (they've made small progress even then) but that Russia might see Bakhmut as a useful place to keep Ukrainian soldiers tied down and prevent them from amassing a offensives elsewhere. Ukraine is holding on to Bakhmut for political reasons, thinking they can mount a counter-offensive on Russian flanks to somehow turn the tide there.

Bakhmut is to Russia like a smaller version of what Kherson was to Ukraine six months ago.

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.


When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin.

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

Not plausible? What the fuck are you drinking? What the fuck do you think has already happened sevreal times in this war? First the Russians get their ass kicked out of northern Ukraine, then they get kicked out of the area around Kharkiv, then Kherson. But now they can’t suddenly win? Seriously?

You’re just bean counting. Russia is just a big bad fighting machine. Bullshit. They’re a paper bear. They can’t even capture Bakhmut. Every offensive they’ve taken has failed. Quit bean counting. Ukraine can win, especially if we give them what they need.

Bakhmut has become a point of pride, wounded pride for Russia if they cannot even take this town of little significance. Zelensky knows this. For now Ukrainian forces do not have to take Bakhmut back, they just have to keep killing Russians as they try to.

It looks like there is no more mobilization and the next conscription will not serve in Ukraine. Putin is just mobilizing men in a scattershot method from the non-Russian parts of the federation. Scattershot to avoid concentrations of pissed off civilians.

From gloriously rolling tanks into Kyiv unchallenged to worrying that what happened to the Soviet Union could happen to the Russian Federation. Best laid plans, eh Vlad?

 

[DrZoidberg]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Anyway... it explains why Wagner earlier got preferential treatment.

Everything is nicer when it makes sense.

The big difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine is fighting for their sheer existence. Having a go at being a part of a well run liberal democracy. While Russians are fighting for the ability for some suit to climb in the internal power hierarchy. The grunts have zero incentive to take any risks or do anything other than tufta. I'm pretty sure they're all aware of that any success they're a part of won't benefit them personally one iota. That gives a huge edge to the war effort of Ukrainians. The troops aren't 1:1 when it comes to quality. Not even close.

 

[Jayjay]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

I'd apply Occam's razor and just conclude that it was created to allow Russia to be involved in various conflicts (first Donbas, later Middle-East and Africa) with deniability. If you recall, before this war, Russia denied officially any involvement with Wagner, saying it's a private company.

Not everything in the world is result of meticulous planning, sometimes things just happen.

The big difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine is fighting for their sheer existence. Having a go at being a part of a well run liberal democracy. While Russians are fighting for the ability for some suit to climb in the internal power hierarchy. The grunts have zero incentive to take any risks or do anything other than tufta. I'm pretty sure they're all aware of that any success they're a part of won't benefit them personally one iota. That gives a huge edge to the war effort of Ukrainians. The troops aren't 1:1 when it comes to quality. Not even close.

They don't have to be 1:1, when Russia has 4 times the population. And some of the wagnerites especially are rather motivated. The regular Russian army... not so much. I think it's definitely good news for Ukraine that Wagner seems to have exhausted its resources, but there are still some of them left.

 

[Jayjay]

.

We might be talking about the same thing. But my definition of "winning" isn't merely repelling Putin's forces. Even though Ukraine will very likely have to call it a "win" to maintain its dignity.


When I talk about victory (the kind I think is unlikely) I mean kicking Russia out of Ukraine to Feb 2022 borders at least, not just repelling their further advances.

That’s certainly possible, and this summer’s fighting will prove crucial for Ukraine. They can do it. But it will be tough. Where I disagree with you is that such a defeat would be catastrophic for Putin.

I don't particularly care what happens to Putin if Russia is defeated. I just don't think such a defeat is plausible.

Not plausible? What the fuck are you drinking? What the fuck do you think has already happened sevreal times in this war? First the Russians get their ass kicked out of northern Ukraine, then they get kicked out of the area around Kharkiv, then Kherson. But now they can’t suddenly win? Seriously?

You’re just bean counting. Russia is just a big bad fighting machine. Bullshit. They’re a paper bear. They can’t even capture Bakhmut. Every offensive they’ve taken has failed. Quit bean counting. Ukraine can win, especially if we give them what they need.

Bakhmut has become a point of pride, wounded pride for Russia if they cannot even take this town of little significance. Zelensky knows this. For now Ukrainian forces do not have to take Bakhmut back, they just have to keep killing Russians as they try to.

I think the reverse is true. Ukraine is one who's surrounded from all sides. They're the ones who only have one or two roads to supply their troops in the city, and those roads are under Russian fire control.

It looks like there is no more mobilization and the next conscription will not serve in Ukraine. Putin is just mobilizing men in a scattershot method from the non-Russian parts of the federation. Scattershot to avoid concentrations of pissed off civilians.

I don't think there will be much noise about a new mobilization, but it'll be done more covertly than last time to avoid public backlash. For example, now various regions have been given quotas to recruit 400k "volunteers".

Then there are always new conscripts. ISW doesn't think Putin will use them though, but if he can't get anyone else, who knows?

Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime. Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov stated on March 30 that spring conscripts will not deploy to Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine during the spring 2023 conscription cycle.[5] Kartapolov also noted that Russian forces will not conscript men from occupied territories. Kartapolov‘s statements may be true given that ISW has not observed the Russian military use conscripts on any significant scale on the frontlines since the first months of the war and especially since the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the Moskva, which had some conscripted sailors aboard.[6] Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time).[8] Putin likely perceives the political cost of deploying conscripts to the frontlines as being higher than that of Russia’s September 2022 mobilization. Putin did not deploy conscripts from the spring 2022 conscription cycles in response to Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast but instead mobilized reservists to stabilize collapsing frontlines. This decision indicated Putin’s policy preference for mobilizing reservists rather than committing conscripts to battle — likely for political reasons — even though conscripts entering the final months of their annual service obligation might fight more effectively than civilian reservists. A prominent Russian news aggregator criticized the Russian conscription system, noting that Russia’s current staffing levels for contract servicemen are insufficient even though Russia has 250,000 available conscripts.[9] The aggregator added that it is “unacceptable” that “half of the Russian army is fighting with all its strength, while the other part is sitting in the barracks.”

 

[ZiprHead]

Turkey clears last hurdle for Finland's NATO membership

Turkey’s parliament on Thursday ratified Finland’s application to join NATO, lifting the last hurdle in the way of the Nordic country’s long-delayed accession into the Western military alliance.

www.pbs.org

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Those local victories were the low-hanging fruit. I haven't seen Ukraine making any progress in 4 and a half months, only losing ground (albeit slowly).

It looks to me that Ukraine isn't looking to move the battle lines, but to hammer Russian logistics--and they have taken a major bite out of them. Ukraine has made one major advance--when the Russian lines were too weakened and subject to breakthrough. I don't expect them to push forward again until they are in a position for another such breakthrough. Fighting on the battle line strongly favors the defender and Ukraine is letting Russia throw it's forces into the meat grinder.

 

[barbos]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.