How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

What Ukraine will continue to do is inflict very heavy loses on the orcs.

These heavy "orc's" losses exist only in the mind of nazis (actual nazis).

 

[barbos]

And what makes you think that there is not a snowball's chance in hell of Biden being reelected? His age will eventually eliminate him, but he is still easily the most electable candidate to win in 2024. Trump's waning chances were proven in the 2020 midterms, and DeSantis does not seem to be getting a lot of traction among moderate voters. If Biden is the candidate, he will likely win, even with his poor showing in job approval surveys.

You might be right; I have a blind spot because I don't think I can never quite fathom the Americans' fetish for electing senile octogenarians.

Anyway, Trump is almost as old as Biden. And arguably more demented. So I wouldn't count him out yet.

Actually, Trump does not show ANY sign of dementia. He is just naturally dim/dumb.
Biden, on the other side, suffers from dementia, there can't be any doubt about that.

Being dumb is not dementia.

 

[barbos]

Only quick path to victory I see for Ukraine is if Russia somehow collapses from within. And the chances of that are really small.

I think everyone is done with quick fixes. Putin and his apologists have made it very clear what they want. If it's not quick it still needs to be done. I seriously doubt I'm unique in that sentiment.

Regime change can't be forced from the outside. Neither quickly nor slowly. If it happens, great! But we in the west or Ukraine have very limited tools to help it along.

This war will be won in the battlefield if at all.

And Russia&China will win it.

 

[barbos]

It looks to me that Ukraine isn't looking to move the battle lines, but to hammer Russian logistics--and they have taken a major bite out of them.

Stop smoking shit MSM gives you. Logistics my ass. They don't even have ammo to even shell actual russian soldiers moving toward them.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia is reduced to using ancient T-55 tanks. And not a single Armata 14 tank has been spotted in Ukraine. Meanwhile for Ukraine, they will soon be getting Abrahams, Leopard and Challenger tanks. And lots of ATGMs.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

And what makes you think that there is not a snowball's chance in hell of Biden being reelected? His age will eventually eliminate him, but he is still easily the most electable candidate to win in 2024. Trump's waning chances were proven in the 2020 midterms, and DeSantis does not seem to be getting a lot of traction among moderate voters. If Biden is the candidate, he will likely win, even with his poor showing in job approval surveys.

You might be right; I have a blind spot because I don't think I can never quite fathom the Americans' fetish for electing senile octogenarians.

Anyway, Trump is almost as old as Biden. And arguably more demented. So I wouldn't count him out yet.

Actually, Trump does not show ANY sign of dementia. He is just naturally dim/dumb.
Biden, on the other side, suffers from dementia, there can't be any doubt about that.

Being dumb is not dementia.

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

 

[Copernicus]

And what makes you think that there is not a snowball's chance in hell of Biden being reelected? His age will eventually eliminate him, but he is still easily the most electable candidate to win in 2024. Trump's waning chances were proven in the 2020 midterms, and DeSantis does not seem to be getting a lot of traction among moderate voters. If Biden is the candidate, he will likely win, even with his poor showing in job approval surveys.

You might be right; I have a blind spot because I don't think I can never quite fathom the Americans' fetish for electing senile octogenarians.

Anyway, Trump is almost as old as Biden. And arguably more demented. So I wouldn't count him out yet.

Actually, Trump does not show ANY sign of dementia. He is just naturally dim/dumb.
Biden, on the other side, suffers from dementia, there can't be any doubt about that.

Being dumb is not dementia.

I don't think that Donald Trump is stupid. He lacks some of the cognitive traits that we associate with intelligence--a decent education, empathy, and intellectual curiosity--but he didn't get where he is by being stupid. He is very good at using the legal system and the gullibility of his admirers to shield himself from suffering the consequences of criminal behavior, and he has frequently bragged about his ability to get away with almost anything he pleases. However, a lot of people have accused him of showing signs of dementia. Joe Biden does also show signs of senility, but just about everyone who gets beyond their 60s experiences symptoms of mental decline, including especially memory issues. His psychologist niece, Mary Trump, has written extensively on the subject of his mental issues, and here is another such analysis by a different psychologist. (Neither Mary Trump nor this woman are actually clinical psychologists, and Trump doesn't let himself near clinicians.)

Yes, Donald Trump Definitely Has Dementia​

 

[barbos]

And what makes you think that there is not a snowball's chance in hell of Biden being reelected? His age will eventually eliminate him, but he is still easily the most electable candidate to win in 2024. Trump's waning chances were proven in the 2020 midterms, and DeSantis does not seem to be getting a lot of traction among moderate voters. If Biden is the candidate, he will likely win, even with his poor showing in job approval surveys.

You might be right; I have a blind spot because I don't think I can never quite fathom the Americans' fetish for electing senile octogenarians.

Anyway, Trump is almost as old as Biden. And arguably more demented. So I wouldn't count him out yet.

Actually, Trump does not show ANY sign of dementia. He is just naturally dim/dumb.
Biden, on the other side, suffers from dementia, there can't be any doubt about that.

Being dumb is not dementia.

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

He did not start this war. US did
He has not made Russia a failing state. He made EU a failing state. Don't believe me? Believe IMF&Co
He did not make Russia pariah. Quite the opposite. The whole world minus US puppet regimes in Europe is on Russia's side.
Collective west is pariah. African leaders are lecturing Europe now.
Europe is on its way to become third world state. Then probably US.

Now, about Biden's mental state. There can't be any doubt that he has dementia, it's just medical fact.
As for being dumb then staring proxy war with China and asking China to stay away is super dumb. But that's what Biden&Co did.

 

[barbos]

Russia is reduced to using ancient T-55 tanks. And not a single Armata 14 tank has been spotted in Ukraine. Meanwhile for Ukraine, they will soon be getting Abrahams, Leopard and Challenger tanks. And lots of ATGMs.

That's BS. Russia was not reduced to using T-55. Russia found uses for T55 tanks. T55 are not used as tanks, they are used as mobile guns.
Ukraine is not getting Abrhams and other shit any time soon in any meaningful numbers. And these tanks are not better than modern russian tanks which Russia has in greater numbers already in Ukraine.
In fact, shit you promise to give them is specifically made to be less advanced because you are afraid of capture.
In any case, tanks be it russian or western are overrated. They have very limited impact in this war.

By the way, Ukraine use even older shit, in some cases WW1 shit. And you send them old shit about which ukrainian regime openly complains as being utterly useless.

 

[Jayjay]

Those local victories were the low-hanging fruit. I haven't seen Ukraine making any progress in 4 and a half months, only losing ground (albeit slowly).

It looks to me that Ukraine isn't looking to move the battle lines, but to hammer Russian logistics--and they have taken a major bite out of them. Ukraine has made one major advance--when the Russian lines were too weakened and subject to breakthrough. I don't expect them to push forward again until they are in a position for another such breakthrough. Fighting on the battle line strongly favors the defender and Ukraine is letting Russia throw it's forces into the meat grinder.

Continuing to strike Russian logistics is absolutely necessary to even maintain current front line. But Russia still has the advantage in terms of artillery and mortar shells. And is probably likely to maintain it. The production in the west is just as difficult to ramp up as it is for Russia, so I don't expect this to flip in Ukraine's favor; but if China starts supplying Russia it could turn worse for Ukraine.

If Ukraine wants to regain its land, it will have to go on the offensive at some point. In that scenario Russia is the defender, and has all the advantages. This is why I don't think the counter-offensive will be successful, except at best locally in some villages or small towns.

As for "meat grinder", I think the current situation is that for both sides. Ukraine is losing manpower, and this is particularly bad because people are the most valuable resource they have.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine has just recieved and has started using the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs with better range than the HIMARS.

Have they really? The only source I can find is Russian MoD claiming to have shot down one.

There is no reason to doubt Pentagon's reports about deliveries.
Ukro-nazis are stock-piling shit for their all-or-nothing counter-offensive.

 

[barbos]

As for "meat grinder", I think the current situation is that for both sides.

Ukrainian Propaganda claims that russians are the only ones really dying.
Western Propaganda then parrots it and you are supposed to parrot that too.
In reality if you read small print you would see that Ukrainians are the ones dying.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

Thanks for giving us the Putin propaganda angle

 

[barbos]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

Thanks for giving us the Putin propaganda angle

I am giving you the truth. You, on the other hand, repeat some random BS you find in western media.

 

[Elixir]

I am giving you the truth.

Yes, of course you are.

 

[Patooka]

Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

And yet you haven't caused a single NATO casualty.

God your military is fucking pathetic. A year in and still you haven't killed a single active duty soldier. Nice to know you've finally heard about the neo nazi group Wagner. How many months did that take for you to admit?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

Thanks for giving us the Putin propaganda angle

I am giving you the truth. You, on the other hand, repeat some random BS you find in western media.

The Truth! So funny. Let me ask you this: if the orcs aren't suffering any causalities, why does the war continue? Why is there another Russian draft being planned? Here's the deal that you need to deal with: your side attacked a sovereign country. You've destroyed their infrastructure, targeted civilians. You've tortured their people. Your soldiers steal and loot everything that they can. You've kidnapped their children. Here's the problem for Russia: you are fighting a war of choice. When your side withdraws, you won't lose any land. If Ukraine does, they lose land, infrastructure, and etc. They have no choice to fight. They are against a wall. They have to fight, or they die. Your side will withdraw at some point.

 

[SLD]

Those local victories were the low-hanging fruit. I haven't seen Ukraine making any progress in 4 and a half months, only losing ground (albeit slowly).

It looks to me that Ukraine isn't looking to move the battle lines, but to hammer Russian logistics--and they have taken a major bite out of them. Ukraine has made one major advance--when the Russian lines were too weakened and subject to breakthrough. I don't expect them to push forward again until they are in a position for another such breakthrough. Fighting on the battle line strongly favors the defender and Ukraine is letting Russia throw it's forces into the meat grinder.

Well, yes, but later this spring they may have the mass and momentum for another big push.

UK mod reports that Russia has largely squandered their mobilization forces in fruitless fighting over the past winter.

“Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties, largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn’s ‘partial mobilisation’”

So far Putin has tried to use non Russian ethnic peoples - or Wagner convicts. But one must wonder if he can continue to do this much longer.

Gerasimov may take the fall for this failure. But sacking him may create another risk for Putin. Then he’ll have a senior disgruntled general, it will be an undeniable admission of failure, and a further blow to morale along the front. At some point he risks a coup or revolt in the Army. There’s only so much failure that it can take. Which is why we must give Ukraine everything it needs, and far more artillery and tanks.

 

[SLD]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

OK, if he has no military threat, why hasn’t he captured Kiev yet? Seems like he could put a lot more troops into the fight and quickly overrun Ukraine. I mean even you have to admit NATO hasn’t opened another front out of the Baltic states.

Or does Russia plan on attacking them soon?

 

[SLD]

Aha... now I get why Wagner is a thing. The Wagner group came into existence because Putin was worried the Russian army can be used to seize power in Russia and replace him. Putin created Wagner, as his private army, to counterbalance the internal threat. Hitler did the same thing with SS and Wehrmacht. Or the Iranian army vs Revolutiotionary guard.

Complete and utter BS.
Wagner was created to do things in Africa and to a lesser degree in ME.
Now it's deployed against NATO in Ukraine. Putin has no threat in Russia, let alone military threat.

Thanks for giving us the Putin propaganda angle

I am giving you the truth. You, on the other hand, repeat some random BS you find in western media.

I really wonder if sometimes you’re [here]<moderator edit> so that you can get the real news you can’t get from Russian sources. In case you are, [this article provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's military capabilities, objectives, and the possible outcomes of their campaign.] <moderator edit>

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 31, 2023