How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

Russia seeks arms-for-food deal with North Korea, US says

The White House says it has new evidence that Russia is looking again to North Korea for weapons to fuel its war in Ukraine, this time in exchange for food and other commodities.

www.abc.net.au

Earlier on Thursday, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions against a Slovakian national, Ashot Mkrtychev, alleging he attempted to facilitate arms deals between Russia and North Korea. Mr Kirby said Mr Mkrtychev is at the centre of the new North Korea-Russia deal, which has yet to be consummated.

If you're asking North Korea for dakka, your side is definitely losing.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[bilby]

He did not start this war. US did
He has not made Russia a failing state. He made EU a failing state. Don't believe me? Believe IMF&Co
He did not make Russia pariah. Quite the opposite. The whole world minus US puppet regimes in Europe is on Russia's side.
Collective west is pariah. African leaders are lecturing Europe now.
Europe is on its way to become third world state. Then probably US.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia is reduced to using ancient T-55 tanks. And not a single Armata 14 tank has been spotted in Ukraine. Meanwhile for Ukraine, they will soon be getting Abrahams, Leopard and Challenger tanks. And lots of ATGMs.

I think the Leopards and Challengers will be used up just in time when Abrams comes.

US is a more reliable supplier than Europe, so the Abrams tanks might give Ukraine a chance. But unfortunately, they'll be delivered in autumn, during the mud season. And Abrams is a heavier tank than Leopard, which might be problematic.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine has just recieved and has started using the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs with better range than the HIMARS.

Have they really? The only source I can find is Russian MoD claiming to have shot down one.

There is no reason to doubt Pentagon's reports about deliveries.

Sure. But GLSDB was first included in the package announced on Feb 3rd. There is going to be a delay when it's actually delivered and even more time to first use.

I've said it before: it's an untested weapon and might not work in real battlefield conditions. I look forward to proof from either side, but it might turn out to be complete failure that such proof never comes out.

As for "meat grinder", I think the current situation is that for both sides.

Ukrainian Propaganda claims that russians are the only ones really dying.

Don't believe in propaganda.

Western Propaganda then parrots it and you are supposed to parrot that too.
In reality if you read small print you would see that Ukrainians are the ones dying.

That's what I said: it's a meat grinder for both sides.

 

[Jayjay]

Those local victories were the low-hanging fruit. I haven't seen Ukraine making any progress in 4 and a half months, only losing ground (albeit slowly).

It looks to me that Ukraine isn't looking to move the battle lines, but to hammer Russian logistics--and they have taken a major bite out of them. Ukraine has made one major advance--when the Russian lines were too weakened and subject to breakthrough. I don't expect them to push forward again until they are in a position for another such breakthrough. Fighting on the battle line strongly favors the defender and Ukraine is letting Russia throw it's forces into the meat grinder.

Well, yes, but later this spring they may have the mass and momentum for another big push.

That's my point. Ukraine has tied up too much of its forces in Bakhmut to be able to mount a counter-offensive.

Pretty much the same reason why the Russian winter-offensive became a dud.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Western Propaganda then parrots it and you are supposed to parrot that too.
In reality if you read small print you would see that Ukrainians are the ones dying.

That's what I said: it's a meat grinder for both sides.

Well, yes, but later this spring they may have the mass and momentum for another big push.

That's my point. Ukraine has tied up too much of its forces in Bakhmut to be able to mount a counter-offensive.

Pretty much the same reason why the Russian winter-offensive became a dud.

It makes no sense that trained forces with the tactical advantage of waiting and hiding, defending a city has anywhere near the attrition rate of untrained men ordered into what is the very definition of a forlorn hope. Even if these Russian convicts and men from the far reaches of the federation did have some basic training, it is a whole other skill set to clear an urban setting with its myriad of hiding places to snipe an advancing enemy. Zelenskyy has made the difficult decision to defend Bakhmut because he knows this cold calculation of his losses compared to Russia's. Only he and his small circle knows what his losses are. So far he has shown great competence in executing the defense of his country. I have no reason to doubt he continues to so.

 

[SLD]

Western Propaganda then parrots it and you are supposed to parrot that too.
In reality if you read small print you would see that Ukrainians are the ones dying.

That's what I said: it's a meat grinder for both sides.

Well, yes, but later this spring they may have the mass and momentum for another big push.

That's my point. Ukraine has tied up too much of its forces in Bakhmut to be able to mount a counter-offensive.

Pretty much the same reason why the Russian winter-offensive became a dud.

It makes no sense that trained forces with the tactical advantage of waiting and hiding, defending a city has anywhere near the attrition rate of untrained men ordered into what is the very definition of a forlorn hope. Even if these Russian convicts and men from the far reaches of the federation did have some basic training, it is a whole other skill set to clear an urban setting with its myriad of hiding places to snipe an advancing enemy. Zelenskyy has made the difficult decision to defend Bakhmut because he knows this cold calculation of his losses compared to Russia's. Only he and his small circle knows what his losses are. So far he has shown great competence in executing the defense of his country. I have no reason to doubt he continues to so.

Yeah the casualties are going to be much higher on the Russian side due to their tactics and simply that they’re the attacking force. Human wave tactics like Wagner group is using often result in a 20-1 casualty rate. At least that’s what you see comparing Japanese to US casualty rates in the Pacific. It’s probably not that bad for Russia, but it’s not good.

As for the decision to defend Bakhmut, I don’t have enough information to contradict Ukraine's assessment of the situation. None of us do. They’ve held out for months longer than anyone predicted. Imminent doom has been predicted for them since January, and here it is April and they’re still bleeding the Russians out. And no sign of retreating anytime soon.

Whatever Russian forces manage to achieve, it will be pyrrhic. They’re spent, and ripe for a counterattack. The Ukrainians in Bakhmut are preparing the ground for a new offensive.

It's Spring. The birds are singing, the flowers are blooming, and Russians are dying.

 

[Elixir]

The birds are singing, the flowers are blooming, and Russians are dying.

They never seem to get sick of that. An undying willingness to die for no reason beyond the whim of their dictator, may be Russians' greatest strength. At least as long as their supply of warm bodies holds up. When it gets thin, they offer up the warm bodies of other nations they have bullied into submission, so this current conflict might go on for a few more years. Eventually Russia's forces will get so thin that they will lose their grip on Chechnya, Georgia and even Belarus, and will be at a loss for more cannon fodder. At that point they will try to settle for the "gains" they have made in Ukraine, but I expect Ukraine will be having none of it; they will have nothing to lose by then, and will likely undertake to expel Russian from Luhansk, Donetsk and eventually, Crimea. And the half-dead bear will be unable to do anything about it.

 

[lpetrich]

Turkey clears last hurdle for Finland's NATO membership

Turkey’s parliament on Thursday ratified Finland’s application to join NATO, lifting the last hurdle in the way of the Nordic country’s long-delayed accession into the Western military alliance.

www.pbs.org

However,

Sweden’s bid to join the alliance, meanwhile, has been left hanging, with both Turkey and Hungary holding out on giving it the green light despite expressing support for NATO’s expansion.

Turkey’s government accuses Sweden of being too lenient toward groups it deems to be terrorist organizations and security threats, including militant Kurdish groups and people associated with a 2016 coup attempt.

More recently, Turkey was angered by a series of demonstrations in Sweden, including a protest by an anti-Islam activist who burned the Quran outside the Turkish Embassy.

Hungary’s government contends some Swedish politicians have made derisive statements about the condition of Hungary’s democracy and played an active role in ensuring that billions in European Union funds were frozen over alleged rule-of-law and democracy violations.

 

[Jayjay]

Turkey clears last hurdle for Finland's NATO membership

Turkey’s parliament on Thursday ratified Finland’s application to join NATO, lifting the last hurdle in the way of the Nordic country’s long-delayed accession into the Western military alliance.

www.pbs.org

However,

Sweden’s bid to join the alliance, meanwhile, has been left hanging, with both Turkey and Hungary holding out on giving it the green light despite expressing support for NATO’s expansion.

Turkey’s government accuses Sweden of being too lenient toward groups it deems to be terrorist organizations and security threats, including militant Kurdish groups and people associated with a 2016 coup attempt.

More recently, Turkey was angered by a series of demonstrations in Sweden, including a protest by an anti-Islam activist who burned the Quran outside the Turkish Embassy.

Hungary’s government contends some Swedish politicians have made derisive statements about the condition of Hungary’s democracy and played an active role in ensuring that billions in European Union funds were frozen over alleged rule-of-law and democracy violations.

Russia allegedly started the war because they didn't want a NATO country on their border.

Well, now they've got 830 miles of new NATO border that wouldn't have happened without the war.

Sad that Turkey and Hungary are holding up Sweden for petty domestic reasons. It's also possible that Sweden will just say fuck it, and not bother to join the alliance at all. They're already surrounded by NATO countries on all sides and have had secret arrangement with the US since the cold war that have given them almost the same security guarantees as full membership.

 

[Jayjay]

Mark Milley seems to agree with me, that the task of taking back their land is very difficult for Ukraine:

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says

“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

www.defenseone.com

“I don't think it's likely to be done in the near term for this year,” Gen. Mark Milley said Friday in an interview with Defense One.

“Zelenskyy has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian occupied Ukraine. And that is a significant military task. Very, very difficult military task. You're looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” the Joint Chiefs chairman said. “But that is their objective. They certainly have a right to that, that is their country. And they are on the moral high ground here.”

Unfortunately moral high ground isn't actual high ground.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Mark Milley seems to agree with me, that the task of taking back their land is very difficult for Ukraine:

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says

“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

www.defenseone.com

“I don't think it's likely to be done in the near term for this year,” Gen. Mark Milley said Friday in an interview with Defense One.

“Zelenskyy has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian occupied Ukraine. And that is a significant military task. Very, very difficult military task. You're looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” the Joint Chiefs chairman said. “But that is their objective. They certainly have a right to that, that is their country. And they are on the moral high ground here.”

Unfortunately moral high ground isn't actual high ground.

Modern wars aren't about manpower. It's about wealth. As long as Ukraine has NATO backing they can absolutely win. The only thing preventing Ukraine crushing Russia like a bug is that NATO is stingy with weapons. It's as if they're giving Ukraine just enough to keep fighting. But not enough to win. If Ukraine wins or not is simply down to NATO generosity.

This war revealed what a mess the Russia army was in. The last forty years Russian military technology hasn't developed much at all. Now that IT is increasingly the key factor in military technology Russias old crap weapons don't have a chance. Any weapons by NATO countries will have longer range, be more mobile and be more accurate.

I heard a theory yesterday that NATO strategy is now to bleed Russia as much as possible in the hopes that the republics under the Russian thumb will also try to break free from Russian control. In a weakened state there's nothing Putin can do to keep the Russian hegemony together. That can explain why NATO isn't giving Ukraine enough weapons to win outright. I certainly understand the NATO countries unwillingness to give loads of valuable tech to the extremely corrupt Ukraine. If Ukraine wins they could do an "Afghanistan" and just immediately turn on NATO.

 

[TV and credit cards]

You walk the line.
The line Putin draws and no other. You do not veer to the right or left.
Ultranationalist milblogger and Prigozhin compatriot Maksim Fomin was killed when a bomb exploded at a Prigozhin owned restaurant where an ultranationalist gathering of Kiber Front Z was taking place.

I know in the west, we are pups when it comes to this nationalism crap. Here it's whoever can go furtherest out on the nationalist fringe wins. Not in Russia. Not in Putin's Russia. In Putin's Russia there is a line. You are not on either side. You are on the line. Or else.

 

[lpetrich]

However,

Some opposition parties were critical of the Turkish government’s position toward the two Nordic countries.

“Unfortunately, (Erdogan’s ruling party) turned the right to veto Finland and Sweden’s membership bids into a tool for blackmail and threat. We do not approve of it,” said Hisyar Ozsoy, a legislator from the pro-Kurdish party. “We find the bargaining process (to press for) the extradition of Kurdish dissident writers, politicians and journalists … to be ugly, wrong and unlawful.”

But at least Finland is finally joining, and putting an end to "Finlandization".

 

[SLD]

This is why Putin’s mobilization won’t work:

Explosion in Russian cafe kills longtime Russian military blogger, injures 15

Russian news reports said blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed and 15 people were hurt in the explosion at the Street Bar cafe in St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city.

www.nbcnews.com

He has to worry seriously about unrest in his backyard. It’s not so much a threat of foreign invasion from NATO, but he has to devote significant resources to internal security. That’s why his numbers are not so important.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Long term, Russia has to think about the problem of a vigous and belligerent China. China has been proving to be very aggressive as demonstrated by border skirmishes with India and the Phillipines.

 

[Elixir]

Long term, Russia has to think about the problem of a vigous and belligerent China. China has been proving to be very aggressive as demonstrated by border skirmishes with India and the Phillipines.

Yes, China will eat them alive, eventually. That should keep them both busy for a while. Russia will feed the Russian citizens to China, and China will get long term, severe indigestion.

 

[ZiprHead]

Long term, Russia has to think about the problem of a vigous and belligerent China. China has been proving to be very aggressive as demonstrated by border skirmishes with India and the Phillipines.

There are border issues between China and Russia too.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.