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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.
Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.
 
Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.
Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say
 
According to Rand Research.

 
Meanwhile, the first 20 Armata 14s are showing up in The Ukraine. So far not in front line battle positions. Fiercesome Russian super weapon? Or Russian metal turkey? Time will tell. Can one of these babies survive being hit by a 155 mm Excaliber shell? We may someday soon find out.
 
Meanwhile, the first 20 Armata 14s are showing up in The Ukraine. So far not in front line battle positions. Fiercesome Russian super weapon? Or Russian metal turkey? Time will tell. Can one of these babies survive being hit by a 155 mm Excaliber shell? We may someday soon find out.
It seems they are moving with their real life tests slowly and don't plan to test its protection which is impressive.
 
Russia in tatters I say, in tatters!


What I saw was a video taken by a sad-looking guy who sounded a bit puzzled at all of the new store names and a lot of closed shops between the open ones. The new stores seem to be ones recently set up by the Chinese, but this is only a year after the sanctions really kicked in. Will they be profitable enough to remain open in six months, or will they be subsidized for show purposes? The mall didn't look all that busy, but that could just be the time of day. The narrator tried to show a large crowd lining up for food at the fast food joint that had replaced MacDonalds, but he was actually standing behind a crowd lined up for the ATMs, with the food joint being behind it. When he went around the crowd, the crowd buying food was somewhat less impressive. He seemed puzzled that the KFC was shuttered, claiming that he knew of others that were open. I got the feeling that the narrator could have shown a lot more closed and shuttered stores, but he was obviously hyping the ones that were open and seemed to be operating normally.

Anyway, it would be interesting to see the same mall a year from now. This is the most famous shopping mall in Russia. Will all of the stores be stocking Chinese goods? Right now, it seems that the major Western business left is Auchan, a French hypermarket that is resisting calls for it to leave. I don't know how long Auchan will last there, as there are calls now for boycotts all over the West. However, they claim to have 230 stores in Russia, so I can see why they are reluctant to leave for the time being. Time will tell. The French retailer Leroy Merlin was also resisting pressure to leave Russia, and it has now announced that it will do so.

French retailer Leroy Merlin says it will exit Russia


War and inflation cost Auchan dearly


Rebranded KFC Opens in Russia Following Chicken Chain’s Departure Over Ukraine


G-7 nations consider outright ban on exports to Russia, Bloomberg says

 
1950s? I thought this thread was about President Biden losing his mind, not his 2500th birthday.
One does not contradict the other. Biden and Loren (and really most of the US including this board) live in the 50s and think Soviet Union must be destroyed.

IRRC, that was when Khrushchev told Vice President Nixon "We will bury you!" He didn't mean it literally. He meant that the USSR would become the dominant economic juggernaut and surpass the US in every way. But the Soviet Union managed not to destroy itself until the end of 1991. Sad. :shrug:
 
1950s? I thought this thread was about President Biden losing his mind, not his 2500th birthday.
One does not contradict the other. Biden and Loren (and really most of the US including this board) live in the 50s and think Soviet Union must be destroyed.

IRRC, that was when Khrushchev told Vice President Nixon "We will bury you!" He didn't mean it literally. He meant that the USSR would become the dominant economic juggernaut and surpass the US in every way. But the Soviet Union managed not to destroy itself until the end of 1991. Sad. :shrug:

I'd nitpick some details here, but basically Yeah. Barbos understanding of the general attitude of Americans towards Russia seems to come from seriously flawed sources, rather like some other things.

Most Americans don't really care much about Russia, or know much. After the Cold War ended it just didn't matter any more. Until Trump started buddying up to Putin, then somewhat. It wasn't until Putin's Russia invaded another, smaller, country that it became a big issue for most Americans. Personally, I had the same reaction to the invasion of Ukraine I had to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. FUCK NO! GET OUT.

Nothing about "the Soviet Union must be destroyed", they did that on their own already.
Tom
 
I'd sure like to know how they are maintaining a supply line. I doubt they are using the Antonovskiy bridge/ford.

Ukrainian military claims "impressive results" against Russian forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

“We have managed to hit and destroy artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles, armored vehicles, and enemy air defense systems,” Natalia Humeniuk said. “In other words, our work on clearing the front line of the east bank is quite powerful, but we are still working in a counter-battery mode.”
Two things occur to me:

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

2) Ukraine appears to be avoiding actually attacking on the front lines--let Russia take the very lopsided losses that come from attacking dug-in troops. Rather, Ukraine has advanced where there is minimal opposition and then mauled the forces that are retreating to avoid being cut off.

Thus I think Russia isn't really in a position to deal with the crossing. And while they're getting their heads out of their asses to deal with this crossing they'll leave themselves even weaker somewhere else.
 
Really, now?!?!
yes, really.
(Argh--I didn't notice the units were kg, not pounds. The idea remains valid, though.)
Google hit #1 shows this to be a standard 500 kg general purpose bomb. To drop an iron bomb with reasonable accuracy you have to go into the MANPAD envelope of whatever you're targeting. Russia has shown great reluctance to do that these days because they've lost too many planes that way.
Oh boy, you're even more misinformed than I thought.
Russia uses GPS/GLONAS guided gliding bombs. So take your MANPAD and throw it into trash.
And no, Russia have not lost many planes. I doubt they lost any Su-35. Few old su-25, sure, but not Su-35.
But the FAB 500 isn't a glide bomb.
 
1950s? I thought this thread was about President Biden losing his mind, not his 2500th birthday.
One does not contradict the other. Biden and Loren (and really most of the US including this board) live in the 50s and think Soviet Union must be destroyed.

IRRC, that was when Khrushchev told Vice President Nixon "We will bury you!" He didn't mean it literally. He meant that the USSR would become the dominant economic juggernaut and surpass the US in every way. But the Soviet Union managed not to destroy itself until the end of 1991. Sad. :shrug:

I'd nitpick some details here, but basically Yeah. Barbos understanding of the general attitude of Americans towards Russia seems to come from seriously flawed sources, rather like some other things.

Most Americans don't really care much about Russia, or know much. After the Cold War ended it just didn't matter any more. Until Trump started buddying up to Putin, then somewhat. It wasn't until Putin's Russia invaded another, smaller, country that it became a big issue for most Americans. Personally, I had the same reaction to the invasion of Ukraine I had to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. FUCK NO! GET OUT.

Nothing about "the Soviet Union must be destroyed", they did that on their own already.
Tom

Barbos is right that quite a few of us here can remember the 1950s, and certainly Joe Biden can. We were children in that decade, but we still know a lot more about what it was like back then than the majority of folks alive today. The USSR was a big deal back then, because it was a nuclear power and it was first to put up satellites and launch humans into space. It was then that high schools began teaching Russian, and that's what gave me the opportunity to learn the language.

Joe Biden's career didn't even start until 1972, so he now stands as one of the most experienced and accomplished politicians in the US. He has gone through terrible family tragedies, overcome a speech disability, and even survived surgery for two brain aneurysms. So it is rather remarkable that he has done such a decent, competent job of running the US government at his age and after all he has gone through. Biden can still give a better speech than the slightly younger Donald Trump, who doesn't even come close to his mental capacity or experience in office. That Republicans constantly spew trash talk at him is no surprise, because that is really the only tactic they have left to promote themselves. It appears that they will be giving us a far inferior candidate to run against Biden (or any likely Democratic nominee, including Harris), so they can only win by trying to drag Biden down to Trump's level. That's why this thread even exists in this forum. It wasn't put there to tell us what better things the Republican Party has to offer us, only to crap all over the likely Democratic nominee.

I'm not happy that Biden is running, but all of the alternatives that they could nominate right now don't stand out as the one most likely to win in 2024. That's too bad, but it is the reality. Just as Donald Trump is the sad reality to be his likely opponent.
 
Meanwhile, the first 20 Armata 14s are showing up in The Ukraine. So far not in front line battle positions. Fiercesome Russian super weapon? Or Russian metal turkey? Time will tell. Can one of these babies survive being hit by a 155 mm Excaliber shell? We may someday soon find out.
It seems they are moving with their real life tests slowly and don't plan to test its protection which is impressive.
Protection? The only protection from something like an Excaliber shell is to not be under it.

Tank armor is a meaningful concept when facing man portable weapons. It became tough enough to defeat warheads of a size that was practical for infantry to carry. Then the infantry got warheads that fire plasma jets that can burn through tank armor. Then the tanks got reactive armor that disrupts the plasma jet--the bang of the warhead and the bang of the reactive armor aren't enough to penetrate. Then the infantry got Javelins that defeat the armor by flying over and attacking the top--not touching it so they aren't defeated by reactive armor. Russia tried cages on top but it clearly doesn't work.

Against heavy weapons, though, tank armor is useless. It has value in dealing with fragments--things like unguided artillery rounds pose little threat--but a direct hit will kill any tank out there. Things like Excalibur, Hellfire, and Maverick all you can do is try to keep them from hitting you in the first place. Nobody's going to test how a tank performs against an Excalibur because they already know it doesn't have a chance. If you figure out a round is incoming you throw as much smoke around as you can and evade in the hope that the seeker loses you, but that's it until someone comes up with a viable point defense weapon for a tank.
 
Meanwhile, the first 20 Armata 14s are showing up in The Ukraine. So far not in front line battle positions. Fiercesome Russian super weapon? Or Russian metal turkey? Time will tell. Can one of these babies survive being hit by a 155 mm Excaliber shell? We may someday soon find out.
It seems they are moving with their real life tests slowly and don't plan to test its protection which is impressive.
Protection? The only protection from something like an Excaliber shell is to not be under it.

Tank armor is a meaningful concept when facing man portable weapons. It became tough enough to defeat warheads of a size that was practical for infantry to carry. Then the infantry got warheads that fire plasma jets that can burn through tank armor. Then the tanks got reactive armor that disrupts the plasma jet--the bang of the warhead and the bang of the reactive armor aren't enough to penetrate. Then the infantry got Javelins that defeat the armor by flying over and attacking the top--not touching it so they aren't defeated by reactive armor. Russia tried cages on top but it clearly doesn't work.

Against heavy weapons, though, tank armor is useless. It has value in dealing with fragments--things like unguided artillery rounds pose little threat--but a direct hit will kill any tank out there. Things like Excalibur, Hellfire, and Maverick all you can do is try to keep them from hitting you in the first place. Nobody's going to test how a tank performs against an Excalibur because they already know it doesn't have a chance. If you figure out a round is incoming you throw as much smoke around as you can and evade in the hope that the seeker loses you, but that's it until someone comes up with a viable point defense weapon for a tank.

The Armata supposedly has acrtive threat deterence systems. These try to spot incoming munitions and destroy them before they hit. It remains to be seen if the Armatas in Ukraine are equiped with these, and how well these systems work. I would hate to be a Vatnik guinea pig in an Armata testing these systems out in actual combat conditions. The other big Russian problem is mines. Intercepted comunications from Mobliks are full of complaints about lack of demining equipment. Searching for mines on hands and knees under fire does not sound like a duty conductive to a long life.
 
1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.
Does it occur to you that ukro-nazis may be lying?
In fact, your own scum government are actually admitting that lying is good and really only strategy Ukraine can employ at this stage.
I am not making this shit up. That's exactly what your government critters openly say.
Protection? The only protection from something like an Excaliber shell is to not be under it.
You need to read specs on T-14

My impression is that conventional ammunition NATO tanks use is simply useless against T-14. You can't penetrate it.
Front armor is not penetrable even without active protection.
I suppose you can use large bomb or dumb shell and physically knock it over or something, but standard anti-tank ammo is not supposed to do much damage.
The bigger problem are sensors, they can be damaged by smaller caliber fire but you need to get relatively close to it.
That thing has 50km sensor range. They put everything imaginable into this tank, it even has its own UAV.
It remains to be seen if the Armatas in Ukraine are equiped with these,
They are integrated into the frame. The tank is 3x more expensive than ordinary tank.
 
The other big Russian problem is mines
Not for T14, it has integrated the thing which blows up mines in front of it.
I would hate to be a Vatnik guinea pig in an Armata testing these systems out in actual combat conditions
I would prefer being in T14 than in Abrams. In any case, as I said earlier testing does not seem to involve testing protection.
 
Then the infantry got Javelins that defeat the armor by flying over and attacking the top--not touching it so they aren't defeated by reactive armor.
T14 has reactive armor everywhere including 100% of the top. It's electronically activated, so tandem shells won't work.
Russians are not as dumb as your propaganda media wants you to think.
 
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