How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Posting Putin’s shit on this board could be his way of learning the truth of what’s really going on without arousing suspicion.

I don't think we're dealing with Orwell's Winston Smith character here but I'm happy to post with it in mind going forward.

The Washington Post reported on April 27 that leaked US intelligence documents state that Russian military officials are attempting to quietly enlist 815,000 soldiers without further alarming government officials concerned about critical labor shortages caused by the war.[43] The Washington Post noted that Russia is facing its worst workforce shortage in 20 years.[44] Russian news agency Interfax reported on April 26 that the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) stopped publishing monthly state oil production statistics.[45] This may indicate state efforts to obscure decreased production and falling revenue.

You might consider the change in timbre of his postings regarding Ukraine over the past year. Personally I stopped reading them when they went from nonsensical to offensive some months ago which I read as simply anger that the tables had been turned on Russian forces.
Further It's my understanding that unlike China, Russia never put the internet infrastructure in place to block/filter content on any large scale. Point being, I don't think there was ever anything stopping him from learning the truth aside from a lifetime of conditioning that information not originating in Russia are lies.

 

[Jarhyn]

I'd sure like to know how they are maintaining a supply line. I doubt they are using the Antonovskiy bridge/ford.

Ukrainian military claims "impressive results" against Russian forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

“We have managed to hit and destroy artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles, armored vehicles, and enemy air defense systems,” Natalia Humeniuk said. “In other words, our work on clearing the front line of the east bank is quite powerful, but we are still working in a counter-battery mode.”

Two things occur to me:

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

2) Ukraine appears to be avoiding actually attacking on the front lines--let Russia take the very lopsided losses that come from attacking dug-in troops. Rather, Ukraine has advanced where there is minimal opposition and then mauled the forces that are retreating to avoid being cut off.

Thus I think Russia isn't really in a position to deal with the crossing. And while they're getting their heads out of their asses to deal with this crossing they'll leave themselves even weaker somewhere else.

My understanding is Russia has limited reserves/equipment to commit. And while they enjoy air superiority, they are loathe to use/lose any aircraft as the sanctions have hit their aviation industry hardest.

Perhaps Ukraine employing smaller group(s) they can keep under an adequate air defense umbrella is their best move. Even smaller groups of well trained soldiers with quality equipment should suffice.

My understanding is that warfare has changed. We're now in the era of drones, smart bombs and self targetting missiles. Basically, AA rockets are so accurate now that planes are easily shot down. This is true for both sides. Effectively negating air power.

The effectiveness of these new rocket system is staggering. Russia was whippping Ukraines ass, then USA gave Ukraine 12 Himars (now they have 3 more, to a total of 15). These 12/15 mobile rocket platforms turned the tide and stopped Russia completely. 12!!! It's a big country. To me that sounds just crazy. With these and other rocket systems they've put Russia's massive fleet of tanks out of commission. Nobody saw that coming.

Now when anything big and mechanized getting wrecked by rockets we're back down to light infantry being the most effective. This is increasingly like WWI now.

My prediction is that this will push military technology towards robot soldiers. It's been going a while now. But now we have a military paradigm that seems to favour being able to endlessly spam out expendable highly mobile soldiers.

The issue with this is that that only lasts as long as the chip fabs are accessible. Global supply chains are great when it's just an isolated conflict, but they quickly become a liability, since we don't really have the resources to keep making chip fabs and blowing them up.

Robot soldiers mean we mill not through soldiers, but through chip fabs.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The issue with this is that that only lasts as long as the chip fabs are accessible. Global supply chains are great when it's just an isolated conflict, but they quickly become a liability, since we don't really have the resources to keep making chip fabs and blowing them up.

Robot soldiers mean we mill not through soldiers, but through chip fabs.

Not just the chip fabs. We currently do not have the ability to produce a wide variety of weapons--because one factory blew up. One factory that makes black powder.

We need to recognize that diversity in the supply chain of anything vital is important and worth paying for. (Because the one-factory approach makes the cheapest product.)

 

[Jarhyn]

The issue with this is that that only lasts as long as the chip fabs are accessible. Global supply chains are great when it's just an isolated conflict, but they quickly become a liability, since we don't really have the resources to keep making chip fabs and blowing them up.

Robot soldiers mean we mill not through soldiers, but through chip fabs.

Not just the chip fabs. We currently do not have the ability to produce a wide variety of weapons--because one factory blew up. One factory that makes black powder.

We need to recognize that diversity in the supply chain of anything vital is important and worth paying for. (Because the one-factory approach makes the cheapest product.)

Not only that... We are getting to the endgame here, and if we fuck this up, we're not just going to have to start again, we may end up lacking the materials to ever even TRY.

There's only so much of certain materials in useful concentrations on the earth and if they get atomized after being mined, or are buried in a pile of UXO, we're fucked, and we will have discovered the great filter.

 

[bilby]

The issue with this is that that only lasts as long as the chip fabs are accessible. Global supply chains are great when it's just an isolated conflict, but they quickly become a liability, since we don't really have the resources to keep making chip fabs and blowing them up.

Robot soldiers mean we mill not through soldiers, but through chip fabs.

Not just the chip fabs. We currently do not have the ability to produce a wide variety of weapons--because one factory blew up. One factory that makes black powder.

We need to recognize that diversity in the supply chain of anything vital is important and worth paying for. (Because the one-factory approach makes the cheapest product.)

Not only that... We are getting to the endgame here, and if we fuck this up, we're not just going to have to start again, we may end up lacking the materials to ever even TRY.

There's only so much of certain materials in useful concentrations on the earth and if they get atomized after being mined, or are buried in a pile of UXO, we're fucked, and we will have discovered the great filter.

Most materials are highly concentrated by human use of them. They're not available now, because we're still using them; But in a post apocalyptic world with a sharply lower population, the availability of materials already concentrated and refined will be far greater than in the preindustrial world.

There's enough steel in a single modern container ship to supply all of the iron used worldwide from the beginning of the Iron Age until the Medieval period.

Stumbling upon the wreckage of any modern city in a post-apocalyptic world with a population of a couple of hundred million (or less) will constitute the most bonanza of bonanza resource discoveries ever. And there are 578 cities of over one million population worldwide (source).

That's a shitload of concentrated resources.

It's simple math - if just ten percent of the stuff needed to give eight billion people our current resource availability survives, then that's enough for a population of 800 million to have a similar level of resource use. And it would be a monumental task to disperse (to concentrations lower than that of our richest natural ores) as much as 90% of the stuff in our cities. Even dispersing as little as 10% of that stuff would require deliberate effort, beyond just dropping enough nukes to kill everyone.

 

[Jarhyn]

The issue with this is that that only lasts as long as the chip fabs are accessible. Global supply chains are great when it's just an isolated conflict, but they quickly become a liability, since we don't really have the resources to keep making chip fabs and blowing them up.

Robot soldiers mean we mill not through soldiers, but through chip fabs.

Not just the chip fabs. We currently do not have the ability to produce a wide variety of weapons--because one factory blew up. One factory that makes black powder.

We need to recognize that diversity in the supply chain of anything vital is important and worth paying for. (Because the one-factory approach makes the cheapest product.)

Not only that... We are getting to the endgame here, and if we fuck this up, we're not just going to have to start again, we may end up lacking the materials to ever even TRY.

There's only so much of certain materials in useful concentrations on the earth and if they get atomized after being mined, or are buried in a pile of UXO, we're fucked, and we will have discovered the great filter.

Most materials are highly concentrated by human use of them. They're not available now, because we're still using them; But in a post apocalyptic world with a sharply lower population, the availability of materials already concentrated and refined will be far greater than in the preindustrial world.

There's enough steel in a single modern container ship to supply all of the iron used worldwide from the beginning of the Iron Age until the Medieval period.

Stumbling upon the wreckage of any modern city in a post-apocalyptic world with a population of a couple of hundred million (or less) will constitute the most bonanza of bonanza resource discoveries ever. And there are 578 cities of over one million population worldwide (source).

That's a shitload of concentrated resources.

It's simple math - if just ten percent of the stuff needed to give eight billion people our current resource availability survives, then that's enough for a population of 800 million to have a similar level of resource use. And it would be a monumental task to disperse (to concentrations lower than that of our richest natural ores) as much as 90% of the stuff in our cities. Even dispersing as little as 10% of that stuff would require deliberate effort, beyond just dropping enough nukes to kill everyone.

The resources we are talking about with chip fabs: noboe gasses, rare metals that are the end stage of multiple slag refinement processes, are extremely limited, and a chip fab is NOT a minor investment of time or effort.

It's not just about steel, it's about palladium and Iridium, and platinum, and the fact that it takes the combined efforts of 7 billion people to gather enough of all of it, and that when anyone tries, it will get bombed to hell because it is the single most vital aspect of modern warfare.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Novaya Kakhovka is just north of Kherson and on the east bank of the Dnipro about 60km north of Oleshky where Ukrainian forces presumably have a foothold on the east bank of the river.

From France 24:

Russian occupational authorities in southern Ukraine said Saturday that Ukrainian forces were subjecting the city of Novaya Kakhovka to “intense artillery fire” that had cut off electricity. The shelling came the same day that authorities in Russian-annexed Crimea reported a drone attack on a fuel depot and as Kyiv prepares for a widely expected counteroffensive against Moscow’s forces. Follow FRANCE 24’s live blog for all the latest developments. All times are Paris time (GMT+2).

Over 10 oil tanks destoyed by Crimea blast, Ukraine military intellegence says​

A Ukrainian military intelligence official said on Saturday more than 10 tanks of oil products with capacity of around 40,000 tonnes were destroyed in an explosion on the Russian-occupied port of Sevastopol on April 29, RBC Ukraine reported.
The official, Andriy Yusov, did not claim Ukraine was responsible for the explosion in comments reported by RBC, instead describing the blast as "God's punishment" for a Russian strike on a Ukrainian city on Friday.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

 

[Copernicus]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

A local official is claiming that only four tanks were destroyed, but the fires were still raging when he said that.

 

[Harry Bosch]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

The above point should be repeated over and over. In fact, is there another army in the modern world that deliberately attacks civilian targets? And when the fucking hell did this become acceptable? When the fuck did it become acceptable for an invader to steal the children from the area that it conquers? When was this practice last acceptable? The Mongol invasions? Then all the routine looting, taking land, fake elections, kidnapping journalists and etc. Russia is a bandito nation. Shame on anyone who defends their banditry.

 

[Copernicus]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

The above point should be repeated over and over. In fact, is there another army in the modern world that deliberately attacks civilian targets? And when the fucking hell did this become acceptable? When the fuck did it become acceptable for an invader to steal the children from the area that it conquers? When was this practice last acceptable? The Mongol invasions? Then all the routine looting, taking land, fake elections, kidnapping journalists and etc. Russia is a bandito nation. Shame on anyone who defends their banditry.

At first, Russian authorities and their shills denied that Russia was deliberately targeting civilians. They knew exactly what was wrong with their vile tactics. Not long afterward, after it became clear to everyone that their strategy was to terrorize the Ukrainian population, not just hit military targets, they changed their tune and started to admit it as a legitimate way to conduct a war. But what should we expect from an authoritarian regime that uses so many of its own citizens as cannon fodder in its aggressive invasion of a neighboring country? Those who defend this kind of behavior always use the same excuse--the end justifies the means. As barbos put it, he didn't necessarily like some of the things they were doing, but he understood why they had to do it.

 

[bilby]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

Your maps link lands in a residential area about 2km south of the actual tank farm, which is at 44°34'58.2"N 33°25'01.4"E

It's quite remote from any civilian area, on an isolated peninsula away from other structures, making it an excellent target with a very low probability of collateral damage.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

Your maps link places them in a residential area somewhat south of the actual tank farm, which is at 44°34'58.2"N 33°25'01.4"E

It's quite remote from any civilian area, making it an excellent target with a very low probability of collateral damage.

Odd. Mine and your's both take me here:


No matter. Hopefully there will be "after" photos.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

The above point should be repeated over and over. In fact, is there another army in the modern world that deliberately attacks civilian targets? And when the fucking hell did this become acceptable? When the fuck did it become acceptable for an invader to steal the children from the area that it conquers? When was this practice last acceptable? The Mongol invasions? Then all the routine looting, taking land, fake elections, kidnapping journalists and etc. Russia is a bandito nation. Shame on anyone who defends their banditry.

Move the Ukrainians out and Russians in. It's not the first time Russia has done this. Plus I think Russia was in a population decline even before this war. The stealing children thing I find particularly upsetting. I can only imagine the seething hatred Ukrainians must have.

 

[bilby]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

Your maps link places them in a residential area somewhat south of the actual tank farm, which is at 44°34'58.2"N 33°25'01.4"E

It's quite remote from any civilian area, making it an excellent target with a very low probability of collateral damage.

Odd. Mine and your's both take me here:
View attachment 43112

No matter. Hopefully there will be "after" photos.

Your link takes me here:

Zooming out, I get:

Maybe Google thinks that because I spend forty hours a week on buses, I must want to see the nearest public transport option.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

A local official is claiming that only four tanks were destroyed, but the fires were still raging when he said that.

Once you get one tank in a tank farm the rest are likely to go as well.

 

[Copernicus]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

A local official is claiming that only four tanks were destroyed, but the fires were still raging when he said that.

Once you get one tank in a tank farm the rest are likely to go as well.

Closeup pictures of the flames certainly make it look like more than three tanks. Maybe that official was confusing the tanks with a report of three drones being sent. Anyway, we'll know more when we see satellite pictures of the aftermath. They can't hide the damage from a satellite.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine signals counteroffensive is near: What to know about the coming fight | The Hill

“Preparations are being finalized,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said at a news conference Friday, adding they were “mostly ready” for the offensive.

That followed remarks from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg saying Ukraine is now in a “strong” position to retake occupied territory in the east after the bloc delivered 98 percent of promised combat vehicles to Ukraine, including some 1,550 armored vehicles and 230 tanks.

Eastward or southward?

Ukrainian forces have been observed setting up positions on the eastern side of Dnipro River, an area that could be used as a staging point for a move to recapture the Crimea Peninsula, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Moscow is aware of the most likely place for Ukraine to strike — in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where Kyiv would seek to cut off a land bridge to the Russian-occupied peninsula.

But Ukraine could seem to build up for an attack there, but attack in the east instead.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

The above point should be repeated over and over. In fact, is there another army in the modern world that deliberately attacks civilian targets? And when the fucking hell did this become acceptable? When the fuck did it become acceptable for an invader to steal the children from the area that it conquers? When was this practice last acceptable? The Mongol invasions? Then all the routine looting, taking land, fake elections, kidnapping journalists and etc. Russia is a bandito nation. Shame on anyone who defends their banditry.

Syria.
Hamas.
Both sides in Yemen.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

Your maps link lands in a residential area about 2km south of the actual tank farm, which is at 44°34'58.2"N 33°25'01.4"E

It's quite remote from any civilian area, on an isolated peninsula away from other structures, making it an excellent target with a very low probability of collateral damage.

Strange that we see different things. Both links lead to the tank farm for me. His link has a name embedded in it as well as coordinates, yours is encoded somehow.