How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

In this case though, it wasn't a professional spy who'd have a "distress code" but just some idiot posting classified info to impress his buddies. It would have been possible to just take over his computer while detaining the guy, coerce him to give his passwords or hack them, and then keep posting slightly edited new "leaks".

But I seriously doubt this is what happened. Apparently he'd been leaking classified info since the beginning of the war, and was caught only now. It looks like a complete fuck up.

 

[Copernicus]

The Belgorod bombing was described in vague terms as "a release of ordnance", but a bomb was dropped that had a devastating effect. No casualties were reported, but the video seems to show a car driving on the street just as the bomb hit. It was blown into the air, so it is hard to believe that the driver survived. Apparently, the pilot claimed it was an "emergency release", which sometimes happens with bombers. However, the usual standard is for the release to be delayed when over a populated area. The pilot may have feared more for his survival than that of people on the ground.

Now it turns out a second bomb was dropped, but it didn't go off.

Russia's Belgorod sees mass evacuations over undetonated bomb​

 

[TV and credit cards]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

And if morale wasn't low enough among Russian cannon fodder, soldiers just west of Donetsk needing medical evacuation are being left at the front lines to suffer and die with casualty numbers no longer being collected. I guess that's one way of getting out of paying survivor's benefits.

Meanwhile the Russian MoD is trying to find a way to tell Putin they need to dig in and play defense for awhile. Not sure it's sinking in yet as the children of a lesser Russia are still being fed into the meat grinder.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

There are reports that many Russian artillery shells are duds, failing to explode. And the Ukranians have gotten very good at locating fuel and ammo dumps and destroying them.

 

[TV and credit cards]

What it's like to get mobilized.

It is perplexing why they only seek help after their husbands or sons have already been sent to Ukraine. What prevented them from seeking assistance earlier, before the situation escalated to such a fatal degree? It seems that only when they witness the dire conditions, lack of training, and death do they become motivated to act.

 

[Jayjay]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

I doubt this can last. First, Ukraine has not shown it can take urban areas. They've been skulking in the woods around Kreminna for over six months with no progress. Same is true of these little islands on left bank of Dnipro in Kherson.

Also, if there is a major push coming, Ukraine would have similar problems with logistics that caused Russia to withdraw from Kherson city. An Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank would be a drain on resources and untenable in the long term.

It could help as a diversion if there is a counter-attack elsewhere though.

Most likely it's Ukrainian special forces temporarily going to the other side of the river, taking a few pictures or harassing Russian positions, then falling back.

 

[Copernicus]

Most likely it's Ukrainian special forces temporarily going to the other side of the river, taking a few pictures or harassing Russian positions, then falling back.

The reporting is based on this ISW study:

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 22, 2023​

It claims that the source of information comes from Russian milbloggers, not Ukrainians. Of course, the ISW is a pro-Ukrainian web site, but they seem more reliable than purely Ukrainian sources.

Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.[2] Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that Russian forces do not control some Dnipro River delta islands southwest of Kherson City as of April 22, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on these islands.[3] Some milbloggers complained that the slow rate of Russian artillery fire due to the over-centralization of the Russian military command allowed Ukrainian forces to land on the east bank.[4] Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area. ISW is recoding territory on the east bank of the Dnipro River to Ukrainian-held only now because this is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there.

 

[Tigers!]

A mobile SAM doesn't need to radiate until it gets an alert that there's a target. Light up, if there's something where they were told to look they can simply fire without having to identify it.

Ah yes. MH17 again

 

[bilby]

Ukraine has not shown it can take urban areas.

Do they need to? Urban areas are a nightmare to fight in, so unless they conceal a highly important strategic objective, such as a bridge/river crossing, the smart move is to go around, cutting off supplies to the forces in the city until they are forced to surrender.

 

[Copernicus]

Can Russia take urban areas anymore? It seems that they are slowly taking Bakhmut, but only after depopulating and pulverizing it. They haven't quite managed to surround it yet, after weeks of fighting.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

I doubt this can last. First, Ukraine has not shown it can take urban areas. They've been skulking in the woods around Kreminna for over six months with no progress. Same is true of these little islands on left bank of Dnipro in Kherson.

Why should they take urban areas? Treat them like fortresses--isolate and bypass.

 

[Jayjay]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

I doubt this can last. First, Ukraine has not shown it can take urban areas. They've been skulking in the woods around Kreminna for over six months with no progress. Same is true of these little islands on left bank of Dnipro in Kherson.

Why should they take urban areas? Treat them like fortresses--isolate and bypass.

That's a distinction without a difference, because Ukraine hasn't been able to "isolate and bypass" anything either.

 

[barbos]

Your SAMs are no cheaper than ours. You do have a lot more of them, though, because we have based our strategy more on control of the skies.

It IS cheaper. First Russia does not have MIC markup
you have. Second it is simpler, I mean rockets themselves are simpler.

If your SAMs are "dirt cheap" why did you lose the Moskova?

Because of fire.

 

[barbos]

But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"

That's not my logic, that's your governments logic. They just hide it from you.

And no, Russia does not buy ammunition from North Korea. It's US who is buying ammunition from South Korea.

Let's see.

1. Yeah, having allies sucks!
2. Our production isn't quite as relevant seeing we aren't at war. We are supplying an ally with munitions to defend themselves.
3. Did you get your golly's over people being cold in the winter? That is over now. Maybe you can rediscover some humanity this spring.

I am not following you here.
The fact is, US has run out of available to Ukraine ammunition.
You simply did not plan for this war. Your plan was to destroy Russia with sanctions.
As for South Korea, Russia warned them that North Korea will get some juicy weapons if South Korea decides to help nazis, even indirectly.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine has not shown it can take urban areas.

Do they need to? Urban areas are a nightmare to fight in, so unless they conceal a highly important strategic objective, such as a bridge/river crossing, the smart move is to go around, cutting off supplies to the forces in the city until they are forced to surrender.

You need to educate yourself more. The only place where nazi forces can feel relatively safe is concrete urban areas and purpose built fortifications. In the open field their life expectancy is close to zero.
And now, Russia started using FAB500 , purpose built fortifications are no longer safe.

 

[barbos]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

It's Su-35 and 34. They look similar to 27 but they are different planes with different engines, different avionics and different airframes. Internally, they are different planes.
They are used to carry heavy bombs and long range AA rockets.
F16 is no match for Su-35. F16 is smaller, shorter range, less agile.

 

[barbos]

In this case though, it wasn't a professional spy who'd have a "distress code" but just some idiot posting classified info to impress his buddies. It would have been possible to just take over his computer while detaining the guy, coerce him to give his passwords or hack them, and then keep posting slightly edited new "leaks".

But I seriously doubt this is what happened. Apparently he'd been leaking classified info since the beginning of the war, and was caught only now. It looks like a complete fuck up.

Bottom line, despite your initial proclamations, Russia has nothing to do with it.
Info itself is not that interesting to anyone who follows this war.

 

[barbos]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Are russians even aware of that? Last time I checked was when Russia left Kherson and people in the know told me that
the on left side of the river is basically a no man's land swamp which is useless.

And if morale wasn't low enough among Russian cannon fodder, soldiers just west of Donetsk needing medical evacuation are being left at the front lines to suffer and die with casualty numbers no longer being collected. I guess that's one way of getting out of paying survivor's benefits.

Meanwhile the Russian MoD is trying to find a way to tell Putin they need to dig in and play defense for awhile. Not sure it's sinking in yet as the children of a lesser Russia are still being fed into the meat grinder.

Western media do report these lies. They have to.

One more time, your media is lying.

 

[TV and credit cards]

If there were a manual on how not to care for your military forces it would be written in Russian. There is hardly a Russian fighting force anywhere in Ukraine that is not dejected, demoralized, ill-equipped, poorly fed, and fatigued. None of them want to be where they are and given an avenue of escape, they will take it.
Meanwhile Ukrainian forces salivate at the smell of orc blood. They must rely on their training and discipline in the coming battles ahead if they are to maximize their potential in reclaiming Ukrainian soil.
The coming battles are Ukraine's to lose. It hardly matters if Russia sees it coming. There is little they can do to stop it. Unless of course they were willing to leave Mother Russia exposed in other ways. When you think about it, there's little point in having any defense in place on the Finnish border. I mean, if you can't handle the Ukrainians, you damn sure can't handle the Finns. Point is, the Kremlin has to make a decision as to whether or not they are willing to drain other military resources soon. If Ukraine does concentrate a move toward the Kherson/Crimea border, Putin will suffer greatly in the public eye.
At any rate, Ukraine's problem will be one of coordination of all the assets they now have at their disposal. This isn't easy. We used to practice this and practice this on the carrier. It doesn't take a whole lot of mistakes and miscommunication for it to unravel. Individual training on a particular piece of equipment is all well and good. Orchestrating it all is another. Are the Pentagon and NATO dudes helping out? I sure hope so.

 

[Harry Bosch]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Are russians even aware of that? Last time I checked was when Russia left Kherson and people in the know told me that
the on left side of the river is basically a no man's land swamp which is useless.

And if morale wasn't low enough among Russian cannon fodder, soldiers just west of Donetsk needing medical evacuation are being left at the front lines to suffer and die with casualty numbers no longer being collected. I guess that's one way of getting out of paying survivor's benefits.

Meanwhile the Russian MoD is trying to find a way to tell Putin they need to dig in and play defense for awhile. Not sure it's sinking in yet as the children of a lesser Russia are still being fed into the meat grinder.

Western media do report these lies. They have to.

One more time, your media is lying.

Yea, it's so funny. Of course the morale must be high for the Russian soldiers. Who wouldn't find it jolly to be sent to war by old fuckers! Think of all the adventure the lads are having in Ukraine!