How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

I'd nitpick some details here, but basically Yeah. Barbos understanding of the general attitude of Americans towards Russia seems to come from seriously flawed sources, rather like some other things.

Really? My sources are flawed and the guy who use his experiences from his trip to USSR in the 60s (?) are great.
Are you mad?

 

[barbos]

Most Americans don't really care much about Russia,

And you think I don't know that? Are you mad? I am implying that in pretty much every post here.
Having said that, "most" is not "all". Some are really obsessed about Russia. Victoria Nuland is one such example.

 

[SLD]

Then the infantry got Javelins that defeat the armor by flying over and attacking the top--not touching it so they aren't defeated by reactive armor.

T14 has reactive armor everywhere including 100% of the top. It's electronically activated, so tandem shells won't work.
Russians are not as dumb as your propaganda media wants you to think.

Well I hope the crewmen don’t forget their dress uniforms for their victory parade through Kiev after they are welcomed as liberators.

BTW, how much longer before you capture Bakhmut? Been nine months and the battle was supposed to be over at least 6 months ago.

 

[Copernicus]

I'd nitpick some details here, but basically Yeah. Barbos understanding of the general attitude of Americans towards Russia seems to come from seriously flawed sources, rather like some other things.

Really? My sources are flawed and the guy who use his experiences from his trip to USSR in the 60s (?) are great.
Are you mad?

The guy uses experiences other than those from the 1960s, but what would you know about them? You put me on ignore because you couldn't handle the truth. I didn't put you on ignore, because I could handle the falsehoods. A trip to the USSR in the 1960s was helpful in that respect.

 

[barbos]

Well I hope the crewmen don’t forget their dress uniforms for their victory parade through Kiev after they are welcomed as liberators.

It's just a test with just a few tanks.

BTW, how much longer before you capture Bakhmut?

As long as ukrainian idiots are willing to send troops to die there.

 

[SLD]

Well I hope the crewmen don’t forget their dress uniforms for their victory parade through Kiev after they are welcomed as liberators.

It's just a test with just a few tanks.

BTW, how much longer before you capture Bakhmut?

As long as ukrainian idiots are willing to send troops to die there.

So, never?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say

This is quite the example of how dangerous it is to have a gullible people when a government has absolute power to control the media. Russia invades a sovereign country, kills thousands of people, kidnaps their children, rapes their women, kills civilians, deliberately targets their civilian infrastructure, kills civilians on a daily basis, loots everything that it can, and steals its land. And yet, a sizable portion of the invaders population believes that the Ukrainians are the Nazis!

 

[DrZoidberg]

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say

This is quite the example of how dangerous it is to have a gullible people when a government has absolute power to control the media. Russia invades a sovereign country, kills thousands of people, kidnaps their children, rapes their women, kills civilians, deliberately targets their civilian infrastructure, kills civilians on a daily basis, loots everything that it can, and steals its land. And yet, a sizable portion of the invaders population believes that the Ukrainians are the Nazis!

"Sizeable"? Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship. By it's very nature we have no way of knowing what any Russians, in Russia, feel or think about anything. Apart from the fact that there isn't an ongoing popular uprising in Russia against Putin, we have no idea what Russian popular opinion is.

The fact that you express this view tells us that you to have swallowed Russian propaganda, and are accepting it as the view of "a sizeable proportion of Russians". It might be. It might not be. We have no way of knowing.

Since the war started, everything I have learned about the Russian mentality is that they are pragmatic and not at all idealistic. They seem to only be impressed by raw power. They seem to like people who win. They seem to care less about how that victory is secured. As long as it is. They seem to be cynical to the extreme. And this hits in every direction. Based on available evidence I don't think anyone in Russia cares whether the Ukrainians are Nazis or not. Most Russians get their news from TV despite having exactly the same access to the Internet as we do. That tells us that they don't really care. I think Russians care about whether they're materially better off now than they were before Putin took power. The answer to that is, yes. I think the ordinary Russian has to hurt a lot more before they abandon Putin.

 

[ZiprHead]

Victoria Nuland is one such example.

Speaking of obsession...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say

This is quite the example of how dangerous it is to have a gullible people when a government has absolute power to control the media. Russia invades a sovereign country, kills thousands of people, kidnaps their children, rapes their women, kills civilians, deliberately targets their civilian infrastructure, kills civilians on a daily basis, loots everything that it can, and steals its land. And yet, a sizable portion of the invaders population believes that the Ukrainians are the Nazis!

"Sizeable"? Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship. By it's very nature we have no way of knowing what any Russians, in Russia, feel or think about anything. Apart from the fact that there isn't an ongoing popular uprising in Russia against Putin, we have no idea what Russian popular opinion is.

The fact that you express this view tells us that you to have swallowed Russian propaganda, and are accepting it as the view of "a sizeable proportion of Russians". It might be. It might not be. We have no way of knowing.

Since the war started, everything I have learned about the Russian mentality is that they are pragmatic and not at all idealistic. They seem to only be impressed by raw power. They seem to like people who win. They seem to care less about how that victory is secured. As long as it is. They seem to be cynical to the extreme. And this hits in every direction. Based on available evidence I don't think anyone in Russia cares whether the Ukrainians are Nazis or not. Most Russians get their news from TV despite having exactly the same access to the Internet as we do. That tells us that they don't really care. I think Russians care about whether they're materially better off now than they were before Putin took power. The answer to that is, yes. I think the ordinary Russian has to hurt a lot more before they abandon Putin.

Nope. I just assume that Russians are like all other people: that they are gullible. A very sizable portion of all people are incredibly gullible. We have a free press in America with many differing opinions and biases. And yet there is a sizable portion of Americans who believe that JFK JR is helping aliens to steal glands from children in America during sex parties. And that the only person standing up to them is Trump. I've seen magicians pull a carton of eggs from a tiny hat, then the live chicken that laid the eggs from the same hat, and the audience bought it. People believe in wacky religious beliefs with no evidence. People fall for cons all the time. So no, I'm not surprised that Barbos, and a sizable portion of Russians believe everything that their perverted government tells them.

 

[SLD]

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say

This is quite the example of how dangerous it is to have a gullible people when a government has absolute power to control the media. Russia invades a sovereign country, kills thousands of people, kidnaps their children, rapes their women, kills civilians, deliberately targets their civilian infrastructure, kills civilians on a daily basis, loots everything that it can, and steals its land. And yet, a sizable portion of the invaders population believes that the Ukrainians are the Nazis!

"Sizeable"? Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship. By it's very nature we have no way of knowing what any Russians, in Russia, feel or think about anything. Apart from the fact that there isn't an ongoing popular uprising in Russia against Putin, we have no idea what Russian popular opinion is.

The fact that you express this view tells us that you to have swallowed Russian propaganda, and are accepting it as the view of "a sizeable proportion of Russians". It might be. It might not be. We have no way of knowing.

Since the war started, everything I have learned about the Russian mentality is that they are pragmatic and not at all idealistic. They seem to only be impressed by raw power. They seem to like people who win. They seem to care less about how that victory is secured. As long as it is. They seem to be cynical to the extreme. And this hits in every direction. Based on available evidence I don't think anyone in Russia cares whether the Ukrainians are Nazis or not. Most Russians get their news from TV despite having exactly the same access to the Internet as we do. That tells us that they don't really care. I think Russians care about whether they're materially better off now than they were before Putin took power. The answer to that is, yes. I think the ordinary Russian has to hurt a lot more before they abandon Putin.

Nope. I just assume that Russians are like all other people: that they are gullible. A very sizable portion of all people are incredibly gullible. We have a free press in America with many differing opinions and biases. And yet there is a sizable portion of Americans who believe that JFK JR is helping aliens to steal glands from children in America during sex parties. And that the only person standing up to them is Trump. I've seen magicians pull a carton of eggs from a tiny hat, then the live chicken that laid the eggs from the same hat, and the audience bought it. People believe in wacky religious beliefs with no evidence. People fall for cons all the time. So no, I'm not surprised that Barbos, and a sizable portion of Russians believe everything that their perverted government tells them.

It’s quite possible that Barbos doesn’t believe the shit Putin spews. It could be a cover. He could fear monitoring by the authorities and arrest. Posting Putin’s shit on this board could be his way of learning the truth of what’s really going on without arousing suspicion.

That’s why it’s important to post details of what’s really happening in Ukraine for him, and not simply links that he can’t access. it’s the only way he can learn what’s going on.

 

[Elixir]

Posting Putin’s shit on this board could be his way of learning the truth of what’s really going on without arousing suspicion.

Hmm. I never considered that.
Barbos has always looked like two different poster to me... there's the one with the dry sense of humor, with good insights and bright discussion about human behavior, and then there's the utterly detached from reality one that doesn't discuss or provide insights, but boringly parrots and repeats obviously false Kremlin talking points.
Your idea certainly bridges/reconciles the otherwise gaping chasm between the two barboses.

 

[scombrid]

Or the engaging side of the persona is just a front to gain credibility for the targeted messaging. Hard to say these days.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I'd sure like to know how they are maintaining a supply line. I doubt they are using the Antonovskiy bridge/ford.

Ukrainian military claims "impressive results" against Russian forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

“We have managed to hit and destroy artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles, armored vehicles, and enemy air defense systems,” Natalia Humeniuk said. “In other words, our work on clearing the front line of the east bank is quite powerful, but we are still working in a counter-battery mode.”

Two things occur to me:

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

2) Ukraine appears to be avoiding actually attacking on the front lines--let Russia take the very lopsided losses that come from attacking dug-in troops. Rather, Ukraine has advanced where there is minimal opposition and then mauled the forces that are retreating to avoid being cut off.

Thus I think Russia isn't really in a position to deal with the crossing. And while they're getting their heads out of their asses to deal with this crossing they'll leave themselves even weaker somewhere else.

My understanding is Russia has limited reserves/equipment to commit. And while they enjoy air superiority, they are loathe to use/lose any aircraft as the sanctions have hit their aviation industry hardest.

Perhaps Ukraine employing smaller group(s) they can keep under an adequate air defense umbrella is their best move. Even smaller groups of well trained soldiers with quality equipment should suffice.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

Does it occur to you that ukro-nazis may be lying?
In fact, your own scum government are actually admitting that lying is good and really only strategy Ukraine can employ at this stage.
I am not making this shit up. That's exactly what your government critters openly say.

Except for the little detail that in hindsight we see Ukrainian claims mostly backed up and Russian claims not match up with what we see later.

Protection? The only protection from something like an Excaliber shell is to not be under it.

You need to read specs on T-14

My impression is that conventional ammunition NATO tanks use is simply useless against T-14. You can't penetrate it.
Front armor is not penetrable even without active protection.
I suppose you can use large bomb or dumb shell and physically knock it over or something, but standard anti-tank ammo is not supposed to do much damage.
The bigger problem are sensors, they can be damaged by smaller caliber fire but you need to get relatively close to it.
That thing has 50km sensor range. They put everything imaginable into this tank, it even has its own UAV.

The bigger warhead has long since defeated the better armor so long as that warhead isn't subject to severe weight limits. It's simply not possible to make a viable tank that can stand up to aircraft or artillery delivered warheads. You have to shoot it down or spoof it. Note that bombs are pretty darn hard to shoot down because they effectively carry their own armor and by the time you're engaging them their guidance systems aren't very important anymore--killing them leaves an awfully narrow window to get off the X. Artillery is even worse, they have to be built extremely tough to survive being fired in the first place.

And if it has a 50km sensor range you've got a nasty problem of the HARM. We have been hunting mobile radar for decades, the Ukrainians no doubt have learned how to do it also. And a HARM is just as good at hunting a point defense radar as a SAM radar--and has enough of a punch to take out a tank. Radiate, you die by HARM. Don't radiate and you don't know there's an inbound you need to shoot down. Radar (and sonar) is very much a double-edged sword.

Looking at the specs it's similar to the M1A2 Abrams--and an Abrams would fare no better in such a situation. You also have an autoloader which means top hits are likely to jack-in-the-box the tank, although since the turret isn't manned that might not kill the crew. The flip side of this is an automated turret means taking out it's optics is a mission kill. You really don't want to take one of those into a city!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

My understanding is Russia has limited reserves/equipment to commit. And while they enjoy air superiority, they are loathe to use/lose any aircraft as the sanctions have hit their aviation industry hardest.

Perhaps Ukraine employing smaller group(s) they can keep under an adequate air defense umbrella is their best move. Even smaller groups of well trained soldiers with quality equipment should suffice.

It doesn't need to be that good an air defense umbrella.

Ukraine has little hope of stopping standoff weapons directed at their beachhead--but Russia has shown almost no ability to react to rapidly-changing situations. To use them effectively against forces on the ground generally means release authority must be pretty low in the hierarchy--but we repeatedly see Russian forces having a very slow reaction loop, this isn't going to happen.

They certainly could hit with bombs but the MANPAD threat makes that a very bad idea for them.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Russia has used its SU-57s against Ukraine, but only to launch long range missiles from Russian held territory far out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Yes, far far out of range, same way they used Su-35.
I vaguelly remember nazi drone attack on a russian airbase where apparently few aircrafts including modern ones were either destroyed or damaged. I don't count that becasue it was not a result of conventional air-defense.

Why do you keep calling the victims of nationalistic expansion "Nazis"? Were the Jews gassed by the German Nazi regime also Nazis? You seem to have swallowed Putin's lies completely, to a degree that I find hard to believe. I have Russian friends and I have Ukrainian refugee friends. They all seem to have the same view of events, roughly the Western version of events. What they differ on isn't facts. But values.

My best friend's girlfriend is Russian and lives in Moscow. She thinks Putin is great. She's a huge fan of the guy. But she doesn't believe any of his propaganda. She assumes all leaders are full of shit. She's prescribes to "might makes right" and thinks that anyone who can will attack neighbours. She thinks Westerners are naive and absurdly idealistic. She also thinks that Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia, and that Zelenskyy also just talks shit. She thinks USA/NATO also just talks shit, and NATO expansion is nothing more than an American invasion of Europe. But she doesn't think the Ukrainian regime are Nazis.

My point is that I don't know anyone, other than you, with the Russian perspective who trusts anything Putin says. That's what I don't understand? If you live in Russia, aren't you surrounded by people who continually roll their eyes at anything Putin says? I can't imagine you are in contact with that many people discussing it who actually repeat the official Putin propaganda line? You sound like little more than a propaganda parrot. I just find it hard to believe you personally believe the things you say

This is quite the example of how dangerous it is to have a gullible people when a government has absolute power to control the media. Russia invades a sovereign country, kills thousands of people, kidnaps their children, rapes their women, kills civilians, deliberately targets their civilian infrastructure, kills civilians on a daily basis, loots everything that it can, and steals its land. And yet, a sizable portion of the invaders population believes that the Ukrainians are the Nazis!

"Sizeable"? Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship. By it's very nature we have no way of knowing what any Russians, in Russia, feel or think about anything. Apart from the fact that there isn't an ongoing popular uprising in Russia against Putin, we have no idea what Russian popular opinion is.

The fact that you express this view tells us that you to have swallowed Russian propaganda, and are accepting it as the view of "a sizeable proportion of Russians". It might be. It might not be. We have no way of knowing.

Since the war started, everything I have learned about the Russian mentality is that they are pragmatic and not at all idealistic. They seem to only be impressed by raw power. They seem to like people who win. They seem to care less about how that victory is secured. As long as it is. They seem to be cynical to the extreme. And this hits in every direction. Based on available evidence I don't think anyone in Russia cares whether the Ukrainians are Nazis or not. Most Russians get their news from TV despite having exactly the same access to the Internet as we do. That tells us that they don't really care. I think Russians care about whether they're materially better off now than they were before Putin took power. The answer to that is, yes. I think the ordinary Russian has to hurt a lot more before they abandon Putin.

Nope. I just assume that Russians are like all other people: that they are gullible. A very sizable portion of all people are incredibly gullible. We have a free press in America with many differing opinions and biases. And yet there is a sizable portion of Americans who believe that JFK JR is helping aliens to steal glands from children in America during sex parties. And that the only person standing up to them is Trump. I've seen magicians pull a carton of eggs from a tiny hat, then the live chicken that laid the eggs from the same hat, and the audience bought it. People believe in wacky religious beliefs with no evidence. People fall for cons all the time. So no, I'm not surprised that Barbos, and a sizable portion of Russians believe everything that their perverted government tells them.

I don't think people are all that gullible. I think people are just focused on other things than just what is true. We're a social species. We are tribal. If believing a certain thing means access to a group that we perceive can give us safety and security we seem to be willing to abandon all sense. People just care about other things than what you think they should.

Russians have been living under one totalitarian state or another since Ivan the Terrible/Great. My money is on that Russians are the most cynical people on the planet. Perhaps second place after the Jews. Very low on trust. I think they're extremely skeptical of anything they hear or read. It's just that they're also very motivated to keep their heads attached to their shoulders. So they'll say what they're expected to say. They don't need to mean it.

I think Russians will support Putin as long as they think Putin is winning. I think Russian Putin loyalty is as extremely weak.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Posting Putin’s shit on this board could be his way of learning the truth of what’s really going on without arousing suspicion.

Hmm. I never considered that.
Barbos has always looked like two different poster to me... there's the one with the dry sense of humor, with good insights and bright discussion about human behavior, and then there's the utterly detached from reality one that doesn't discuss or provide insights, but boringly parrots and repeats obviously false Kremlin talking points.
Your idea certainly bridges/reconciles the otherwise gaping chasm between the two barboses.

Ie, a normal human being. Have you never met a Christian who normally is bright and clever, but the moment religion comes up their brain seems to have evaporated?

 

[DrZoidberg]

I'd sure like to know how they are maintaining a supply line. I doubt they are using the Antonovskiy bridge/ford.

Ukrainian military claims "impressive results" against Russian forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

“We have managed to hit and destroy artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles, armored vehicles, and enemy air defense systems,” Natalia Humeniuk said. “In other words, our work on clearing the front line of the east bank is quite powerful, but we are still working in a counter-battery mode.”

Two things occur to me:

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

2) Ukraine appears to be avoiding actually attacking on the front lines--let Russia take the very lopsided losses that come from attacking dug-in troops. Rather, Ukraine has advanced where there is minimal opposition and then mauled the forces that are retreating to avoid being cut off.

Thus I think Russia isn't really in a position to deal with the crossing. And while they're getting their heads out of their asses to deal with this crossing they'll leave themselves even weaker somewhere else.

My understanding is Russia has limited reserves/equipment to commit. And while they enjoy air superiority, they are loathe to use/lose any aircraft as the sanctions have hit their aviation industry hardest.

Perhaps Ukraine employing smaller group(s) they can keep under an adequate air defense umbrella is their best move. Even smaller groups of well trained soldiers with quality equipment should suffice.

My understanding is that warfare has changed. We're now in the era of drones, smart bombs and self targetting missiles. Basically, AA rockets are so accurate now that planes are easily shot down. This is true for both sides. Effectively negating air power.

The effectiveness of these new rocket system is staggering. Russia was whippping Ukraines ass, then USA gave Ukraine 12 Himars (now they have 3 more, to a total of 15). These 12/15 mobile rocket platforms turned the tide and stopped Russia completely. 12!!! It's a big country. To me that sounds just crazy. With these and other rocket systems they've put Russia's massive fleet of tanks out of commission. Nobody saw that coming.

Now when anything big and mechanized getting wrecked by rockets we're back down to light infantry being the most effective. This is increasingly like WWI now.

My prediction is that this will push military technology towards robot soldiers. It's been going a while now. But now we have a military paradigm that seems to favour being able to endlessly spam out expendable highly mobile soldiers.

 

[Ford]

I'd sure like to know how they are maintaining a supply line. I doubt they are using the Antonovskiy bridge/ford.

Ukrainian military claims "impressive results" against Russian forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

“We have managed to hit and destroy artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles, armored vehicles, and enemy air defense systems,” Natalia Humeniuk said. “In other words, our work on clearing the front line of the east bank is quite powerful, but we are still working in a counter-battery mode.”

Two things occur to me:

1) Russia has shown itself totally inept at reacting to what Ukraine does.

2) Ukraine appears to be avoiding actually attacking on the front lines--let Russia take the very lopsided losses that come from attacking dug-in troops. Rather, Ukraine has advanced where there is minimal opposition and then mauled the forces that are retreating to avoid being cut off.

Thus I think Russia isn't really in a position to deal with the crossing. And while they're getting their heads out of their asses to deal with this crossing they'll leave themselves even weaker somewhere else.

My understanding is Russia has limited reserves/equipment to commit. And while they enjoy air superiority, they are loathe to use/lose any aircraft as the sanctions have hit their aviation industry hardest.

Perhaps Ukraine employing smaller group(s) they can keep under an adequate air defense umbrella is their best move. Even smaller groups of well trained soldiers with quality equipment should suffice.

My understanding is that warfare has changed. We're now in the era of drones, smart bombs and self targetting missiles. Basically, AA rockets are so accurate now that planes are easily shot down. This is true for both sides. Effectively negating air power.

The effectiveness of these new rocket system is staggering. Russia was whippping Ukraines ass, then USA gave Ukraine 12 Himars (now they have 3 more, to a total of 15). These 12/15 mobile rocket platforms turned the tide and stopped Russia completely. 12!!! It's a big country. To me that sounds just crazy. With these and other rocket systems they've put Russia's massive fleet of tanks out of commission. Nobody saw that coming.

Now when anything big and mechanized getting wrecked by rockets we're back down to light infantry being the most effective. This is increasingly like WWI now.

My prediction is that this will push military technology towards robot soldiers. It's been going a while now. But now we have a military paradigm that seems to favour being able to endlessly spam out expendable highly mobile soldiers.

Warfare has changed drastically in a lot of ways. Take battlefield medicine. An injury that would have been a death warrant in Vietnam is now survivable. The US messed up a lot in Iraq, but also learned a lot. Part of the reason Ukraine has been able to stand up to Russia is because the US has been imparting some hard-won lessons about urban warfare to Ukraine since 2014. Russia is still operating on Cold War thinking of "just throw a bunch of guys at the problem" for the most part. The US lost over 4,000 soldiers in Iraq over the course of a decade. Russia has planted over 100k in Ukraine in just over a year.