How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Regarding the drone explosion over the Kremlin, while the Kremlin claims only the US could orchestrate such an assassination attempt on Putin, it appears it was another ham-handed false flag operation, as per France 24 and ISW. Search there, have you the interest.

In other propaganda news, Russia has claimed to have destroyed 27 of the 20 HIMARS sent to Ukraine so far.
Are we obligated under the Taste of Armageddon Convention to destroy seven more?

I would not be at all surprised if a desperate Putin had ordered a false flag attack on the Kremlin. It would be easy to pull off secretly and release a video of the unarmed target being shot down. Neither the Ukrainians nor the US would have any reason to do such a stupid thing. Putin himself is known to flit around from hidey hole to hidey hole for fear of being targeted by assassins, so a strike on the Kremlin itself would be unlikely to find him there, and the Russians even admitted he wasn't there at the time. If it was a false flag, then it could be a setup to justify a massive strike on a location that Zelensky was known to be at. Killing Zelensky would stun the world and demoralize Ukrainians. He would become an instant martyr, but do the Ukrainians have another competent leader who could hold the defense of Ukraine together in the way he has?

Russia says U.S. was behind Kremlin drone attack, drawing quick denial​

Another take on it.

Knock, Knock, Knocking on Putin’s Door

What remains is the humiliating message those two drones sent against the Kremlin and hit their target. Someone, be it Ukrainians or Russian opponents (in my opinion likely the first despite the denials), has been able to bang on Putin’s door and may be able to do so again. When your whole career is based upon the idea of keeping Russia safe and great, having your symbolic center of power hit is a really bad start to your day, and promises more sleepless nights.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

This kind of reminds me of Jimmy Doolittle's B-25 attack on Tokyo. Not much damage done, but let Japan realize they were at war, and Japan was not untouchable.

 

[SLD]

everybody

?

'Doomed to perish senselessly': Wagner Group chief says mercenary force will withdraw from Bakhmut

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force claims his forces will leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer.

www.abc.net.au

The article does point out this hasn't happened yet, and Putin's favourite Nazi does have a history of being as dishonest as Vlad and his personal orange cock holster, but one does not make statements like this if everything is going swimmingly.

I do wonder if Russia has run themselves so low on stock in many areas they are basically down to what they can currently produce. Supposedly they do not have the manpower for production, are not compensating their workers adequately, and making deductions from their paychecks for "the war effort".
Russian War Manual Vol II, Fucking Up the Means of Production.

Ukrainian generals say it’s bullshit. He’s probably lying to cover up his need to retreat.

it seems that Putin was promised Bakhmut by May 9 so he could claim a victory for the WWII parade. Now the parade is cancelled. Bakhmut could still eventually fall, but not for several more weeks. But if this news is true, and enough Wagner group forces are in fact withdrawing, Bakhmut could result in a Ukrainian victory.

I concur on the Ukrainian offensive not starting until July. The weather will be better then too.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

everybody

?

'Doomed to perish senselessly': Wagner Group chief says mercenary force will withdraw from Bakhmut

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force claims his forces will leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer.

www.abc.net.au

The article does point out this hasn't happened yet, and Putin's favourite Nazi does have a history of being as dishonest as Vlad and his personal orange cock holster, but one does not make statements like this if everything is going swimmingly.

I do wonder if Russia has run themselves so low on stock in many areas they are basically down to what they can currently produce. Supposedly they do not have the manpower for production, are not compensating their workers adequately, and making deductions from their paychecks for "the war effort".
Russian War Manual Vol II, Fucking Up the Means of Production.

Ukrainian generals say it’s bullshit. He’s probably lying to cover up his need to retreat.

That'd be an odd way to do it. It sounds like he is saying Russia is screwed because they don't even have bullets. Political cover for a retreat would be saying nothing at all.

I suppose he could be rope-a-doping here, but why, unless this is a rouse for a massive full blown air assault to twist a knife in the gut of Ukrainian forces into thinking things were going "well" enough. IE, they are pulling out because the area is to be flattened.

 

[SLD]

everybody

?

'Doomed to perish senselessly': Wagner Group chief says mercenary force will withdraw from Bakhmut

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force claims his forces will leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer.

www.abc.net.au

The article does point out this hasn't happened yet, and Putin's favourite Nazi does have a history of being as dishonest as Vlad and his personal orange cock holster, but one does not make statements like this if everything is going swimmingly.

I do wonder if Russia has run themselves so low on stock in many areas they are basically down to what they can currently produce. Supposedly they do not have the manpower for production, are not compensating their workers adequately, and making deductions from their paychecks for "the war effort".
Russian War Manual Vol II, Fucking Up the Means of Production.

Ukrainian generals say it’s bullshit. He’s probably lying to cover up his need to retreat.

That'd be an odd way to do it. It sounds like he is saying Russia is screwed because they don't even have bullets. Political cover for a retreat would be saying nothing at all.

I suppose he could be rope-a-doping here, but why, unless this is a rouse for a massive full blown air assault to twist a knife in the gut of Ukrainian forces into thinking things were going "well" enough. IE, they are pulling out because the area is to be flattened.

So here’s a bit more of what he said. He was in Bakhmut and was shining a flashlight on recent Wagner dead, saying they died because the Generals were sitting in their Kremlin offices like fat cats and added, “These are someone’s fucking fathers and someone’s sons. And you fuckers who aren’t giving [us] ammunition, you bitches, will have your guts eaten out in hell!” He was screaming when he said this.

He said he will withdraw by May 10. I am skeptical that will happen. They will give him the ammunition on Putin’s order. Or at least some.

But one wonders if some Russian officer will take him out and claim he was killed fighting for Bakhmut along his soldiers. They can’t be happy with him. But they probably like to be able to use his soldiers as cannon fodder and spare their own.

All of this gives pause as to the general state of the Russian military. It’s Army doesn’t want to close with or fight. It wants to sit back and bomb, like in Syria and Chechnya. Not necessarily a bad strategy. But unless they’re willing to go in there and fight, they won’t likely advance much. And unlike Syria and Chechnya, the Ukrainians also have heavy artillery, albeit not enough. Thus they are relying on Wagner. The problem is that Wagner has been seriously depleted over the last few months. It doesn’t have any cannon fodder Left. Thus they're infighting. But what might come of that? The Army needs Wagner, but they don’t want them to become too powerful like the Waffen SS. Let them be killed. But What next? It’s a serious dilemma. Things could really come to a breaking point in the coming weeks and one wonders if the entire operation will come into question and fall apart. Outside of Bakhmut, little real fighting is occurring. Because that’s where Wagner is. Without them, the entire Russian operation could fall apart. But supplying them is a serious problem for the Army and Russia. They’re really making the Army look bad. Like it doesn’t want to fucking be there!! No shit. We could be seeing the beginnings of the collapse of the entire effort.

 

[SLD]

In other news:


The peace talks are not exactly peaceful. Fuck that shit anyways. I’d have said and done a lot worse.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia is moving their Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol.
Perhaps they're looking for a gas station.

 

[Jayjay]

He said he will withdraw by May 10. I am skeptical that will happen. They will give him the ammunition on Putin’s order. Or at least some.

I also think this is rather likely. Prigozhin is calling Shoigu's and Gerasimov's bluff.

 

[Copernicus]

He said he will withdraw by May 10. I am skeptical that will happen. They will give him the ammunition on Putin’s order. Or at least some.

I also think this is rather likely. Prigozhin is calling Shoigu's and Gerasimov's bluff.

I also think that this is a more likely scenario. The military hierarchy hates Prigozhin, and starving him of ammunition in Bakhmut is an excellent way to diminish his power. It is also useful to preserve the supply of ammunition for the regular army. Putin will likely order that he gets the supplies he is demanding, but that doesn't mean that the military brass will comply.

 

[Copernicus]

This kind of reminds me of Jimmy Doolittle's B-25 attack on Tokyo. Not much damage done, but let Japan realize they were at war, and Japan was not untouchable.

It also reminds me of how the Nazis discovered so quickly that the Communists had set the Reichstag on fire. That helped galvanize public support behind them to root out domestic enemies.

 

[SLD]

He said he will withdraw by May 10. I am skeptical that will happen. They will give him the ammunition on Putin’s order. Or at least some.

I also think this is rather likely. Prigozhin is calling Shoigu's and Gerasimov's bluff.

I also think that this is a more likely scenario. The military hierarchy hates Prigozhin, and starving him of ammunition in Bakhmut is an excellent way to diminish his power. It is also useful to preserve the supply of ammunition for the regular army. Putin will likely order that he gets the supplies he is demanding, but that doesn't mean that the military brass will comply.

Good point. But what does that mean for the overall effort?

In truth I think Russia could just hold on to the territory that they’ve seized. Use their massive artillery advantage to prevent a counter attack. Then basically declare victory. Tell the Ukrainians that they won’t try to conquer any further. They could hold out for a long time if not indefinitely. Of course when Putin inevitably exits The scene there could be further trouble.

But Putin can’t really do that. He has to conquer. But that’s obviously not working. Only Wagner is interested in conducting offensive action and they cannot sustain or make much progress beyond a few meters a day. It’s a long way to Kiev.

The infighting may spell the doom of the whole operation. The army will indeed undermine any order to give them ammunition. Or they’ll withhold other necessities. Ultimately the project is doomed if the two don’t come together. And the Russian people get behind the operation wholeheartedly. But I ain’t holding my breath.

 

[Copernicus]

It is hard to imagine that the Russian people will ever get behind a war whose casus belli is purely the whim of Vladimir Putin and a cabal of ultranationalist thugs. I don't think that the rank and file of the Russian military has much enthusiasm for this brutal unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country.

 

[marc]

The war in summation

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The war in summation

That was fucking awesome. He bloodied the guy good. He followed up with "Paws off our flag. Paws off Ukraine. Russian filth." Not bad. Definitely sends a message.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I concur on the Ukrainian offensive not starting until July. The weather will be better then too.

I would be surprised if there is a Ukrainian offensive scheduled, period. They appear to be much more reacting to opportunity than scheduling.

 

[Ford]

I concur on the Ukrainian offensive not starting until July. The weather will be better then too.

I would be surprised if there is a Ukrainian offensive scheduled, period. They appear to be much more reacting to opportunity than scheduling.

Honestly, that's been Ukraine's entire MO throughout this whole process. Reacting to opportunity. Adapting to changing conditions. Being a step ahead of Ivan at every possible opportunity.

Russia's tactical plan seems to be "I dunno...throw more guys at the problem and get back to me. I'm having my mahogany polished."

 

[SLD]

I concur on the Ukrainian offensive not starting until July. The weather will be better then too.

I would be surprised if there is a Ukrainian offensive scheduled, period. They appear to be much more reacting to opportunity than scheduling.

They may not need it. Russian infighting may do the work for them.

But reacting to Russia is not a bad idea. Russia keeps giving them the opportunity. They may be about to do it again. You have to be flexible in wartime.

 

[Copernicus]

According to Ukraine, the Russians are strengthening their positions around Bakhmut. So maybe Prigozhin playing games before launching a fresh attack before the upcoming Mayday celebrations in Moscow.

 

[SLD]

According to Ukraine, the Russians are strengthening their positions around Bakhmut. So maybe Prigozhin playing games before launching a fresh attack before the upcoming Mayday celebrations in Moscow.

ISW is saying that Russian military is abandoning their offensive in Bakhmut and preparing to spoil the Ukrainian offensive. That’s why Prigozhin is so pissed. They’re abandoning his forces to their fate and he can’t stand to retreat. This he’s making excuses. Although they are good ones.

 

[Copernicus]

Kadyrov has said that his forces will now replace Prigozhin's. Just after Prigozhin's announcement, the Russian side incinerated most of what was left of Bakhmut with what appeared to be incendiary phosphorus bombs, another in a long string of war crimes.