How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[DrZoidberg]

We wonder who destroyed that pipeline. Who could it possibly be?

....
A Danish patrol boat detected a Russian vessel near the Nord Stream gas pipelines four days before they were sabotaged in multiple blasts, according to media reports.

The defense command confirmed it had 26 images of the SS-750 Russian navy ship, which carries a small submarine that is designed to carry out underwater operations, photographed from a Danish patrol boat in the vicinity of the pipelines on September 22, 2022, local newspaper Dagbladet Information reported Thursday.

Four days later, on September 26, 2022, explosions ripped through three of the four Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, which link Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea and are part-owned by Russia’s Gazprom.
......

Russian ship spotted near Nord Stream pipelines days before sabotage: Reports

There are 26 photos of the SS-750 Russian navy ship, which carries a small submarine that is designed to carry out underwater operations.

www.politico.eu

NATO countries painting a finger at a nation they are actively at war with proves nothing. I’m not on team Barbos. But come on, guys. We shouldn't be gullible about stuff because it looks good to our side.

I personally think it's Russia as well. I believe that for geopolitical reasons. I think it's just power blackmail.

But like I said, this leaked information is no smoking gun

 

[Jayjay]

Yup... but in the end, the game was capture the flag, not "beat the shit" out of Ukraine.

Here is a news for you. The game is actually what I said it is.
Russia will beat the shit out of Ukraine's army until army is no more and then march on Kiev and Poland's border.

Izzard's bit went right over your head if you think it somehow supports Russian imperialism.

 

[Jayjay]

What about France?
Why no condemnation of police brutality and no calls for immediate resignation of Macron the butcher!

So far Macron hasn't ordered shooting live rounds at the crowds like Yanukovich did. If he does, he should go just the same.

Rioting in the streets is a French national sport.

 

[Jayjay]

The Danish government will not agree that is the case. Russia got caught red handed.

Sweden is the one with the Intel and they have refused to share it with anyone

Why do you think that is?

Option 1: Sweden doesn't actually know anything and is embarrassed how bad their surveillance in the Baltic Sea is.

Option 2: The evidence points at US, Ukraine, or some EU nation.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The Danish government will not agree that is the case. Russia got caught red handed.

Sweden is the one with the Intel and they have refused to share it with anyone

Why do you think that is?

Option 1: Sweden doesn't actually know anything and is embarrassed how bad their surveillance in the Baltic Sea is.

Option 2: The evidence points at US, Ukraine, or some EU nation.

I think it's number 1.

It happened in Swedish waters and Russian uboat surveillance has been a major thing. Basically, Sweden has a strong incentive to hide their surveillance capabilities

 

[bilby]

The Danish government will not agree that is the case. Russia got caught red handed.

Sweden is the one with the Intel and they have refused to share it with anyone

Why do you think that is?

Option 1: Sweden doesn't actually know anything and is embarrassed how bad their surveillance in the Baltic Sea is.

Option 2: The evidence points at US, Ukraine, or some EU nation.

I think it's number 1.

It happened in Swedish waters and Russian uboat surveillance has been a major thing. Basically, Sweden has a strong incentive to hide their surveillance capabilities

Indeed, and that cuts both ways.

Sweden might know nothing, and want to hide how bad they are at surveillance of the region; Or they might know everything, and want to hide how good they are at surveillance of the region.

In my experience, the intelligence agencies of most European countries are by turns amused and horrified by the American tendency to brag about things that it would be strategically valuable to keep secret.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The Danish government will not agree that is the case. Russia got caught red handed.

Sweden is the one with the Intel and they have refused to share it with anyone

Why do you think that is?

Option 1: Sweden doesn't actually know anything and is embarrassed how bad their surveillance in the Baltic Sea is.

Option 2: The evidence points at US, Ukraine, or some EU nation.

I think it's number 1.

It happened in Swedish waters and Russian uboat surveillance has been a major thing. Basically, Sweden has a strong incentive to hide their surveillance capabilities

Indeed, and that cuts both ways.

Sweden might know nothing, and want to hide how bad they are at surveillance of the region; Or they might know everything, and want to hide how good they are at surveillance of the region.

In my experience, the intelligence agencies of most European countries are by turns amused and horrified by the American tendency to brag about things that it would be strategically valuable to keep secret.

Sweden accused the Soviets for many years for violating Swedish water. The Soviets denied it. Then one day in 1981 a Russian sub ran aground right next to a major Swedish naval base. Sweden only learned

Soviet submarine S-363 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Danish government will not agree that is the case. Russia got caught red handed.

Sweden is the one with the Intel and they have refused to share it with anyone

Why do you think that is?

Option 1: Sweden doesn't actually know anything and is embarrassed how bad their surveillance in the Baltic Sea is.

Option 2: The evidence points at US, Ukraine, or some EU nation.

I think it's number 1.

It happened in Swedish waters and Russian uboat surveillance has been a major thing. Basically, Sweden has a strong incentive to hide their surveillance capabilities

Indeed, and that cuts both ways.

Sweden might know nothing, and want to hide how bad they are at surveillance of the region; Or they might know everything, and want to hide how good they are at surveillance of the region.

In my experience, the intelligence agencies of most European countries are by turns amused and horrified by the American tendency to brag about things that it would be strategically valuable to keep secret.

During the cold war there were numerous Russian uboat sightings in Swedish waters. The Russians kept denying it. Then 1981 they ran aground inside the waters of one of Sweden's main fleet bases.

Soviet submarine S-363 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

From this it was pretty clear that Russian subs were all over Swedish waters, and had been all along. All very embarrassing. The Swedish government promissed the people that they'd invest in a super sonar defence, etc etc. Probably they did nothing.

The Swedish military is utter garbage. It's been underfunded for half a century. Sweden is a depopulated country with a massive border. Good luck defending that. Sweden's primary weapon at this point is maintaining the fantasy that we can defend ourselves... a little bit.

Fun fact. In the waters outside Swedish naval bases there are unmarked underwater mazes. These are man-made. Built 300 - 400 years ago. Still a state secret. But these are not natural phenomena. They're intended to make unguided enemy ships run aground. Which is (very probably) what happened to the Russian sub in 1981.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Regarding the drone explosion over the Kremlin, while the Kremlin claims only the US could orchestrate such an assassination attempt on Putin, it appears it was another ham-handed false flag operation, as per France 24 and ISW. Search there, have you the interest.

In other propaganda news, Russia has claimed to have destroyed 27 of the 20 HIMARS sent to Ukraine so far.
Are we obligated under the Taste of Armageddon Convention to destroy seven more?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile, Ukrainian sabre rattling has many Russians leaving Crimea in hordes. Ukraine is preparing for mass Russian mobik desertions. The real counter offensive will not probably be until late June or July as much more weaponry and munitions are on the way from the West. The present day talk of a massive counter offensive is mainly prepatory psychological warfare.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine's "I want to live program". Helping Russian troops surrender. So far, 10,000 have allegedly done so.

 

[Copernicus]

Regarding the drone explosion over the Kremlin, while the Kremlin claims only the US could orchestrate such an assassination attempt on Putin, it appears it was another ham-handed false flag operation, as per France 24 and ISW. Search there, have you the interest.

In other propaganda news, Russia has claimed to have destroyed 27 of the 20 HIMARS sent to Ukraine so far.
Are we obligated under the Taste of Armageddon Convention to destroy seven more?

I would not be at all surprised if a desperate Putin had ordered a false flag attack on the Kremlin. It would be easy to pull off secretly and release a video of the unarmed target being shot down. Neither the Ukrainians nor the US would have any reason to do such a stupid thing. Putin himself is known to flit around from hidey hole to hidey hole for fear of being targeted by assassins, so a strike on the Kremlin itself would be unlikely to find him there, and the Russians even admitted he wasn't there at the time. If it was a false flag, then it could be a setup to justify a massive strike on a location that Zelensky was known to be at. Killing Zelensky would stun the world and demoralize Ukrainians. He would become an instant martyr, but do the Ukrainians have another competent leader who could hold the defense of Ukraine together in the way he has?

Russia says U.S. was behind Kremlin drone attack, drawing quick denial​

 

[bilby]

Fun fact. In the waters outside Swedish naval bases there are unmarked underwater mazes. These are man-made. Built 300 - 400 years ago. Still a state secret. But these are not natural phenomena. They're intended to make unguided enemy ships run aground.

There's something similar in The Solent, protecting the entrance to Portsmouth, though as this area now has very heavy maritime traffic, it's all been conspicuously marked with beacons and lights, and is clearly shown on marine charts. It's also marked by four very large sea forts.

That doesn't stop the occasional half-wit from trying to sail their expensive yachts across the clearly marked obstacles, and sheering off their keels though.

When I was a poor student in Pompey, a cheap entertainment on a sunny day was to stroll down to the beach at Eastney and watch the lifeboat launching to go pull these imbeciles out of the water.

 

[Elixir]

do the Ukrainians have another competent leader who could hold the defense of Ukraine together in the way he has?

Probably not. But Pootey is not dumb enough to think he would escape retribution if he has Zelensky assassinated.

 

[Tigers!]

We really need a new thread to go forward from the expected Ukrainian counter offensive.

 

[Copernicus]

We really need a new thread to go forward from the expected Ukrainian counter offensive.

Then we would have two Ukraine threads commenting on the same news stories and involving the same participants. Barbos would get overtime pay for populating both with the same bullshit Kremlin propaganda.

 

[Tigers!]

We really need a new thread to go forward from the expected Ukrainian counter offensive.

Then we would have two Ukraine threads commenting on the same news stories and involving the same participants. Barbos would get overtime pay for populating both with the same bullshit Kremlin propaganda.

It does keep Barbos off the streets though. His mother would be happy about that.

 

[Elixir]

Barbos would get overtime pay for populating both with the same bullshit Kremlin propaganda.

He needs the overtime - now, before the coffers run dry.

 

[Jayjay]

do the Ukrainians have another competent leader who could hold the defense of Ukraine together in the way he has?

Probably not. But Pootey is not dumb enough to think he would escape retribution if he has Zelensky assassinated.

What retribution? It's not like Ukraine could do anything about it, and US and other NATO countries probably wouldn't either. Especially if it happened on Ukrainian soil and not, say, during Zelensky's current European trip.

 

[Patooka]

Remember when everybody was saying Bakhmut was going to fall to Wagner?

'Doomed to perish senselessly': Wagner Group chief says mercenary force will withdraw from Bakhmut

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force claims his forces will leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer.

www.abc.net.au

The article does point out this hasn't happened yet, and Putin's favourite Nazi does have a history of being as dishonest as Vlad and his personal orange cock holster, but one does not make statements like this if everything is going swimmingly.

 

[TV and credit cards]

everybody

?

'Doomed to perish senselessly': Wagner Group chief says mercenary force will withdraw from Bakhmut

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force claims his forces will leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer.

www.abc.net.au

The article does point out this hasn't happened yet, and Putin's favourite Nazi does have a history of being as dishonest as Vlad and his personal orange cock holster, but one does not make statements like this if everything is going swimmingly.

I do wonder if Russia has run themselves so low on stock in many areas they are basically down to what they can currently produce. Supposedly they do not have the manpower for production, are not compensating their workers adequately, and making deductions from their paychecks for "the war effort".
Russian War Manual Vol II, Fucking Up the Means of Production.